farmland values: up or down? farmers: more or fewer? damona doye regents professor and rainbolt...
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Farmland Values: Up or Down?Farmers: More or Fewer?
Damona DoyeRegents Professor and Rainbolt Chair in Agricultural Finance
Roger SahsAssistant Extension Specialist
2014 Farm Real Estate Values (% change)
7.3%
10.5%
3.1%10.4%
5.9%
17.4%
11.4%
17.1% 8.8%
22.5%
0.2%
4.0%
0.8%
1.0%
NC
4.7%
3.1%
9.0%
10.1%
5.5%
8.9%
8.0%
5.0%
5.8%
N/C
> 2010-191-9
<0
USDA/NASS data, August 2014
8.8%
8.7%
4.1%
3.8%
6.9%
6.8%
5.6%
4.3%
6.3%
8.6.0%
9.3%
1.0%
3.9%
0.4%
3.8% NC
-0.7%
0.9%
NC
0.4%
0.1%
1.9% -1.0%
-0.7%
2014 Cropland Average Value by State($ per acre)
USDA/NASS data
7,880
6,470
4,350
13,000
4,000
4,870
5,1807,700
5,840
2,530
8,7505,650
3,8102,260
2,570
7,050
3,430
4,2003,550
2,050
4,460
3,400
2,850
6,500
2,460
3,080
2,380
8,320 2,540
1,680
1,500
987
3,040
1,840
1,370
3,260
1,450
2,560
2,500
10,140
3,210
N/A500 - 9991,000 – 2,4992,500 – 4,9995,000 – 15,000
2014 Pastureland Average Value by State ($ per acre)
2,550
2,900
1,3302,5002,150
1,600
3,400
1,300
3,400
1,820
3,100900
750
860
2,7004,7603,400
3,9302,00013,500
2,100
4,910
3,650
2,9002,240
2,500
2,110
1,360
1,580
940
760
1,120
640
360
1,050
490
2,700
630
810
USDA/NASS data
N/A
500 - 999
1,000 – 2,499
2,500 – 4,999
5,000 – 15,000
6,000
USDA/NASS data
2014 Non-Irrig. Cropland Average Cash Rent
8 to 1516 to 20
31 to 3526 to 3036 plus
21 to 25
N/A
2014 Pasture Land Rental Rates
5 to 910 to 14
25 to 2920 to 24
30 plus
15 to 19
N/A
USDA/NASS
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20140
5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500
US and OK Land Values
US Pasture Land Value OK Pasture Land ValueUS Cropland Value OK Non-irrig Cropland Value
$/ac
re
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Oklahoma Non-Irrigated Cropland Cash Rents and Land Prices
Land Value Cash RentYear
La
nd
Va
lue
($
/ac)
Ca
sh R
en
t ($
/ac)
USDA/NASS
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
non-irrig cropland price Linear (non-irrig cropland price)
Oklahoma Non-Irrigated Cropland Value Trend
USDA/NASS
- 200 400 600 800
1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000
non-irrig cropland price capitalized cropland value
Capitalized Values: Oklahoma Non-Irrigated Cropland
USDA/NASS + 10 year t-note
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Oklahoma Pasture Cash Rents and Land Prices
Land Value Cash RentYear
La
nd
Va
lue
($
/ac)
Ca
sh R
en
t ($
/ac)
USDA/NASS
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
2014 -
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
pasture price Linear (pasture price)
Oklahoma Pastureland Value Trend
USDA/NASS
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
2014 -
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
pasture price capitalized pasture value
Capitalized Values: Oklahoma Pastureland
USDA/NASS + 10 year t-note
Resources and Contact Info• OSU Agricultural Economics Department
– http://agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues• Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank
– http://www.kc.frb.org/• Chicago Federal Reserve Bank
– http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/index.cfm• USDA NASS
– http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Land_Values_and_Cash_Rents/
• USDA Census of Agriculture– http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2012/
• [email protected], 405-744-9813