february 13, 2009 q4 2008 telus investor conference call robert mcfarlane evp & chief financial...

29
February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Upload: arturo-keetch

Post on 14-Dec-2015

215 views

Category:

Documents


2 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

February 13, 2009

Q4 2008 TELUSinvestor conference call

Robert McFarlaneEVP & Chief Financial Officer

Darren EntwistlePresident & CEO

Page 2: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

TELUS forward looking statements

Today's session and our answers to questions contain statements about expected future events and financial and operating results of TELUS that are forward-looking. By their nature, forward-looking statements require the Company to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that the forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a number of factors could cause actual future results and events to differ materially from that expressed in the forward-looking statements. Accordingly our comments are subject to the disclaimer and qualified by the assumptions (including assumptions for 2009 targets and share purchases), qualifications and risk factors referred to in our Management’s discussion and analysis in the 2007 annual report, the 2008 first, second and third quarter reports, and the 2008 fourth quarter Management’s review of operations, and in other TELUS public disclosure documents and filings with securities commissions in Canada (on www.sedar.com) and in the United States (on EDGAR at www.sec.gov). Except as required by law, TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, and reserves the right to change, at any time at its sole discretion, its current practice of updating annual targets and guidance.

Page 3: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Agenda

Wireless and wireline segment review Consolidated financial review Updates

Operating Efficiency Programs HSPA network build-out Business Solutions TELUS international Pensions

2009 corporate priorities Questions and Answers

3

Page 4: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Wireless segment – Q4 2008 financial results

($M) Q4-07 Q4-08 Change

Revenue 1,111 1,188 6.9%

EBITDA (as adj. excl. restr. costs)1 491 498 1.4%

Capital expenditures 135 236 75%

Margins compressed YoY due to higher costs Capex reflects start of investment in new HSPA network build

1 EBITDA (as adjusted) excludes net-cash settlement feature recovery of $1M in Q4/07. Restructuring costs were nil and $6M in Q4/07 and Q4/08, respectively.

4

Page 5: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Prepaid 20%

Wireless subscribers

Postpaid 80%

Net additions

6.1 million total

4.9M

1.2M

Wireless subscriber results

prepaid

postpaid

Postpaid net adds increased 11% over last year

66%

Q4-07 Q4-08

148K162K

80%

5

Page 6: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

TELUS wireless subscriber additions

6

Gross additions (000s)

Net additions (000s)

1,017 987

1,121

1,279 1,2931,434

418 431512

584 535 515

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Record annual digital subscriber additions in 2008 up 14%

1,655

588

2008

* Digital net adds were 588K, net of the impact from the analogue network turndown of 27.6K subscribers.

561*

Net digital additions (000s)

Page 7: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Wireless ARPU

Data

Q4-08

$62.16

Voice

$63.70

Q4-07

Strong data growth partially offsets competitive voice decline

7

Q4-08Q4-07

11%

% of ARPU

11.177.95 12% 18%

Page 8: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Smartphones driving data growth

8

New BlackBerry Storm and MIKE Curve

BlackBerry Storm BlackBerry Curve MIKE

Page 9: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Wireless data revenue ($M)

55% annualized data growth driven by smartphone adoption

9

Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08

131147

159181

203

12.514 15

1618

% of network revenue

Page 10: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Wireless marketing and retention

Q4-07 Q4-08 change

Gross adds 421K 441K 4.8%

Churn 1.59% 1.62% 3 bps

COA per gross add $352 $388 10%

COA expense $148M $172M 16%

Retention expense $89M $98M 10%

Gross adds, COA / COR up YoY

10

Page 11: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Next generation wireless network update*

Vendors: Nokia Siemens Networks and Huawei Technologies Planning complete & network build commenced HSPA mobile phone call, video telephony call and data call

completed HSPA network investments boosted Q4 capex and included in

2009 consolidated capex target On track for launch and service by early 2010 HSPA network overlay provides optimal path to 4G LTE

11

Joint next generation wireless network overlay on track

* See forward looking statement caution

Page 12: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Operating efficiency program (OEP) update

Significant acceleration of restructuring costs in Q4-08

$38M in Q4-08 compared to $6M in Q4-07

$59M in 2008 compared to $20M in 2007

Managing costs in legacy parts of our business to maintain performance and free up resources for growth areas of business

Multiple OEP initiatives are continuing into 2009:

Compensation frozen for management

2009 estimated restructuring costs of $50M to $75M*

12

Operating efficiency initiatives enhancing operating performance and funding growth investments

* See forward looking statement caution

Page 13: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Wireline segment - revenue profile

($M) Q4-07 Q4-08 Change

Voice – Local 505 480 (5.0)%

Voice – Long Distance 179 173 (3.4)%

Data 466 528 13%

Other 69 85 23%

External Revenue 1,219 1,266 3.9%

Revenue up due to strong growth in data offsetting moderate declines in local and LD

13

Page 14: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Wireline segment – Q4 2008 financial results

($M) Q4-07 Q4-08 Change

Revenue 1,219 1,266 3.9%

EBITDA (as adj. excl. restr. costs)1 469 477 1.7%

Capital expenditures 337 395 17%

14

Underlying EBITDA up 2% when excluding restructuring

1 EBITDA (as adjusted) excludes net-cash settlement feature exp of $2M in Q4/07. Restructuring costs were $6M and $32M in Q4/07 and Q4/08, respectively.

Page 15: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

1.2 million total

Internet subscribers

Dial-up10%

High-speed Internet net additions

Q4-07 Q4-08

1.1M

124K

Internet subscribers

26K

19K

15

High-speed90%

Net adds improved sequentially but down YoY

Q3-08

13K

Page 16: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Business Solutions wireline update

Continued success of industry vertical strategy and consultative customer approach

16

TELUS selected by Government of Quebec to deliver and manage province’s next generation data network Up to $900M contract for a term of seven to 10 years

Network will provide connections to 160 ministries and agencies and 350 health network institutions

Dilutive to earnings and FCF upfront / typical J Curve investment

Deployment planning underway

TELUS Health Solutions progressing well Successful integration of Emergis

2009 Federal budget provides $500M to Canada Health Infoway for greater use of e.health records

Budget goal is 50% of Canadians with e.health record by 2010

TELUS well positioned to compete on this opportunity

Page 17: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Moderate Network Access Line losses vs. peers

17

-3.2%

-5.0%

-7.4%

-3.6%

-9.7%

Q4 2007

Q4 2008

Other

1 Includes a weighted average of Bell, MTS and Bell Aliant.

TELUS compares favourably to North American peers due to business line growth

1

-8.1%

-9.3%

-6.6%

Page 18: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Consolidated – Q4 2008 financial results

($M excluding EPS) Q4-07 Q4-08 Change

Revenue 2,330 2,454 5.3%

EBITDA (as adj. excl. restr. costs)1 960 975 1.6%

EPS (reported) 1.23 0.90 (27)%

EPS (excl. income-tax related impacts) 0.79 0.80 1.3%

Capital Expenditures 472 631 34%

Underlying EBITDA up 1.6%, excluding restructuring costsCapex increase represents investments for l-t growth

18

1 EBITDA (as adjusted) excludes net-cash settlement feature expense of $1M in Q4/07. Restructuring costs were $6M and $38M in Q4/07 and Q4/08, respectively, or $0.02 and $0.08 per share.

Page 19: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

$1.23

$0.04 $0.03

($0.06)($0.03)

$0.90

Lower 2008 Tax

Rates

Q4-07 Reported

Lower o/s shares & Dep’n

and Amort

Restr. costs

Financing costs & other

$0.10 Tax Adj.

$0.80Excl. Tax Adj.

EPS continuity

Underlying EPS up slightly

Q4-08 Reported

19

$0.44 Tax Adj.

$0.79Excl. Tax Adj.

$0.03

EBITDA (excl restr.

costs)

Page 20: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

2008 consol. results compared to original targets

($B except EPS)2008 original

targets1

2008 results

result

Revenue 9.6 to 9.8 9.653

EBITDA 3.8 to 3.95 3.779

EPS (excl income-tax related impacts) 3.50 to 3.80 3.37

Capex Approx. 1.9 1.859

20

1 Provided on December 13, 2007

Plus achieved 3 of 4 wireless and wireline segmented targets

Page 21: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

2009 consolidated guidance unchanged

($B except EPS) 2009 targets* Change

Revenue $10.025 to 10.275 4 to 6%

EBITDA $3.75 to 3.9 up to 3%

EPS (excl. income-tax related adj.) $3.40 to $3.70 up to 10%

Capex Approx. $2.05 10%

* Provided on December 16, 2008 / See forward looking statement caution

21

2009 consolidated and segmented targets unchanged

Page 22: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

TELUS international update

Opening call centre in Nevada in Q2-09 to support call centre and business process outsourcing services to U.S. based clients

Adds Spanish language capability, which is increasingly prerequisite for U.S. accounts

Provides geographic diversity Complements TELUS’ recent minority investment in other

Spanish/English call centre operations in three Central American countries

Investments provide ability to serve U.S. corporate customers in multiple languages and in multiple time zones

22

Investments meet needs of U.S. corporate customers

Page 23: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

TELUS’ funding position

TELUS’ strong balance sheet a result of longstanding commitment to prudent financial policies

23

Committed $2B credit facility does not expire until May 2012

Extended $700M 364-day bank facility to 2010

Strong position with sustainable cash flows and ample liquidity

Could term-out some existing short-term financing if conditions become advantageous

Strong investment grade credit ratings (BBB+/A-) with stable outlook

Set the industry standard for capital structure optimization

Page 24: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Pension assumptions update*

Minor year-end updates to 2009 pension assumptionsPension funding fully tax deductible

24

Defined Benefit (DB) 2008A 2009E

Discount rate 5.5% 7.25%

Long-term expected return 7.25% no change

Pension expense/(recovery) $(100M) $18M

Pension funding $102M $211M

* See forward looking statement caution

Page 25: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Q4 summary

Consolidated revenue growth driven by wireless and wireline data Postpaid net adds increased 11% and represented 80% of net adds Continued wireline business traction with large public sector contracts

and health opportunities As promised, demonstrated cost control & accelerated wireless and

wireline restructuring investments Capex increase due to HSPA and broadband investments Extended 364-day bank facility to 2010 / liquidity > $1B maintained Strong balance sheet and longstanding adherence to prudent financial

policies underpins credit ratings No change to 2009 consolidated and segmented guidance

25

Page 26: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

2009 corporate priorities

Execute on TELUS’ broadband strategy, leveraging our investments in leading wireline and wireless networks to deliver winning solutions for our customers

Increase the efficiency of our operations to improve TELUS’ cost structure and economic performance

Outpace the competition and earn the patronage of clients through an engaged TELUS team

26

Building on strength to create future growth and value

Page 27: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Questions?

investor relations 1-800-667-4871telus.com [email protected]

Page 28: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

Appendix – Free cash flow2008Q4

2007Q4C$ millions

EBITDA 953 937Capex (472) (631)Interest expense paid (includes income tax interest income) (138) (192)Cash income taxes; and other 120 (2)Non-cash portion of share based compensation 11 13

Restructuring payments (net of expense) 3 30Net employee defined benefit plans expense (recovery) (23) (27)Employer contributions to employee defined benefit plans (25) (26)Donations and securitization fees included in other expense (9) (8)Free Cash Flow (before share based comp payment) 420 94Share based compensation paid (41) (33)Free Cash Flow 379 61Purchase of shares for cancellation (NCIB) (147) (5)Dividends (270) (144)

Working Capital and Other 17 (8)Funds Available for debt redemption (21) (96)A/R Securitization (50) 50Net Issuance (Repayment) of debt 90 14Increase (Decrease) in cash 19 (32)

Page 29: February 13, 2009 Q4 2008 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO

EBITDA: earnings, after restructuring and workforce reduction costs, before

interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization

Capital intensity: capex divided by total revenue

Cash flow: EBITDA less capex

Free cash flow: EBITDA, adding Restructuring and workforce reduction costs, net

employee defined benefit plans expense, cash interest received and excess of

share compensation expense over share compensation payments, subtracting

cash interest paid, cash taxes, capital expenditures, cash restructuring payments,

employer contributions to employee defined benefit plans, and cash related to

Other expenses such as charitable donations and securitization fees

Cost of retention (COR): total costs to retain existing subscribers, often presented

as a percentage of network revenue

Appendix - definitions

TELUS definitions for non-GAAP measures