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Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO December 15, 2009 TELUS 2010 Targets investor conference call

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TELUS 2010 Targets investor conference call. Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO December 15, 2009. TELUS forward looking statements. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

Robert McFarlaneEVP & Chief Financial Officer

Darren Entwistle President & CEO

December 15, 2009

TELUS 2010 Targetsinvestor conference call

Page 2: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

TELUS forward looking statementsThis session and answers to questions contains forward-looking statements that require assumptions about expected future events and financial and operating results that require assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that assumptions, predictions and other forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and assumptions as a number of factors could cause actual future results, conditions, actions or events to differ materially from the targets, expectations, estimates or intentions expressed. Except as required by law, TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, and reserves the right to change, at any time at its sole discretion, its current practice of updating annual guidance.

See Key Assumptions and Forward Looking Statements in TELUS’ 2010 Targets news release dated December 15, 2009.

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to: Competition (including more active price competition; the expectation that new wireless competitors will be offering services in early 2010 as a result of the 2008 advanced wireless services (AWS) spectrum auction; industry growth rates including wireless penetration gain; actual network access line losses, TELUS TV and wireless subscriber additions experience; variability in average wireless revenue per unit as well as variability in subscriber acquisition and retention costs that are dependent on subscriber loading and retention volumes, smartphone sales and subsidy levels, and TELUS TV installation costs); economic growth and fluctuations (including strength and persistence of the economic recovery in Canada, and pension performance, funding and expenses); capital expenditure levels in 2010 and beyond (due to the Company’s wireline broadband initiatives, fourth generation (4G) wireless deployment strategy, and any new Industry Canada wireless spectrum auctions); financing and debt requirements (including ability to carry out refinancing activities) ; tax matters (including acceleration or deferral of required payments of significant amounts of cash taxes); human resource developments (including current collective bargaining in the TELUS Québec region and collective bargaining agreements expiring in late 2010); business integrations and internal reorganizations (including ability to successfully implement cost reduction initiatives and realize expected savings); technology (including reliance on systems and information technology, broadband and wireless technology options and roll-out plans, choice of suppliers and suppliers’ ability to maintain and service their product lines, expected technology and evolution path and transition to 4G technology, expected future benefits and performance of high-speed packet access (HSPA) / long-term evolution (LTE) wireless technology, successful implementation of the wireless network build and sharing arrangement with Bell Canada to achieve cost efficiencies and reduce deployment risks, successful deployment and operation of new wireless networks and successful introduction of new products (such as new HSPA devices), new services and supporting systems); regulatory approvals and developments (including interpretation and application of tower sharing and roaming rules, the design and impact of future spectrum auctions, and possible changes to foreign ownership restrictions); process risks (including conversion of legacy systems and billing system integrations, and implementation of large complex enterprise deals that may be adversely impacted by available resources and degree of co-operation from other service providers); health, safety and environmental developments; litigation and legal matters; business continuity events (including manmade and natural threats); any future acquisitions or divestitures; and other risk factors discussed herein and listed from time to time in TELUS’ reports and public disclosure documents including its annual report, annual information form, and other filings with securities commissions in Canada (on SEDAR at sedar.com) and in its filings in the United States, including Form 40-F (on EDGAR at sec.gov).

For further information, see Section 10: Risks and risk management in TELUS’ annual 2008 Management’s discussion and analysis, as well as updates reported in Section 10 of TELUS’ 2009 quarterly Management’s discussions and analyses.

Page 3: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

2009 guidance update 2010 assumptions & targets Summary Questions and answers

Agenda

Page 4: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

($M, excluding EPS)2009 previous

guidance Nov. 6/092009 revised

guidance

Revenue $9,600 to $9,700 approx $9,600

EBITDA $3,475 to $3,575 approx $3,475

EPS (reported) $3.10 to $3.30 no change

Capex approx. $2,100 no change

4

2009 consolidated guidance - updated

Revenue and EBITDA trending to lower end of guidanceRestructuring costs raised by $30M

Restructuring costs updated to approx. $190M vs approx. $160M

Page 5: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

2010 targets

Page 6: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

Wireless industry penetration growth of approximately 4% pts

Competitive wireless entry from new entrants in early 2010

Increased TELUS wireless subscriber loading in smartphones following HSPA network launch and access to new devices

Reduced downward pressure on TELUS ARPU with continued voice ARPU erosion offset in part by increased data and roaming revenue growth

Expect continued stabilization in residential NAL losses and continued pressure in SMB market from cable-TV/VoIP players

Continued wireline broadband footprint expansion for TELUS with ADSL 2+ coverage approaching 90% of urban areas by YE 2010 and start of VDSL 2 deployment

2010 wireless/wireline target assumptions

6

Page 7: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

Expect significant increase in COA/COR resulting from increased loading and subsidy levels for smartphones, and to lesser extent, increased TTV loading

Ongoing focus on efficiency initiatives with approx. $75M in restructuring & workforce reduction costs

2010 EBITDA savings of approx. $135M generated by efficiency initiatives

Statutory tax rate of 28.5 to 29.5%

Cash tax payments to peak in 2010 at $385 to $425M due to timing of installments (approx $270M in 2009)

2010 consolidated target assumptions

7

Page 8: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

Defined Benefit pension assumptions

8

($M) 2009 2010E

Discount rate 7.25% 5.75%

Long-term expected return 7.25% No change

Pension expense $17 $47

Pension funding $191 $141

Preliminary pension expense up $30MCash contribution expected to be down $50M

Page 9: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

2009E 2010E

4,675 to 4,725

4,950 to 5,100

9

2010 wireless revenue target ($M)

Increase of 5 to 9% driven by increased subscriber loading and data revenue growth and full year of Black’s

Page 10: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

2009E 2010E

1,900 to 1,950

1,925 to 2,025

10

2010 wireless EBITDA target ($M)

Growth of between zero to 5% despite margins being impacted by increased smartphone subsidies

Page 11: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

2009E 2010E

approx 4,900

4,850 to 5,000

11

2010 wireline revenue target ($M)

Revenue change of up to 2% due to data revenue offsetting continued local and LD trends

Page 12: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

2009E 2010E

approx 1,550

1,575 to 1,675

12

2010 wireline EBITDA target ($M)

Growth of 2 to 8% due to efficiency initiatives and reduced restructuring costs offsetting dilution from TELUS TV growth

Page 13: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

($M) 2009E 2010E Change

EBITDA approx 1,550 1,575 to 1,675 2 to 8%

Defined Benefit pension expense 19 45

Restructuring costs approx 180 approx 60

EBITDA normalized approx 1,749 1,680 to 1,780 (4) to 2%

13

Wireline segment – EBITDA normalized

EBITDA favourably impacted by lower restructuring

Page 14: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

Investing in operational efficiency

Acceleration of operating efficiency initiatives increases 2009 restructuring costs by $30M

14

Total restructuring costs ($M)

2008 2009E

approx 190

59 113

Expected

Actual

2010E

approx 75

Q4

2007

20

77

2002 – 2006

773

Page 15: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

2008 2009E

9.19.7

2007

15

approx9.6

2010 consolidated revenue target ($B)

Growth of 2 to 5% driven by wireless

2010E

9.8 to 10.1

Page 16: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

2009E

16

2010EIncreased DB pension expense

Operational EBITDA

2010 consolidated EBITDA target ($M)

Reported EBITDA growth of 1 to 6%

approx 3,475

3,500 to 3,700 ~40M

~(30)M

ReducedRestr cost

~115M

Page 17: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

($M) 2009E 2010E Change

EBITDA approx 3,475 3,500 to 3,700 1 to 6%

Defined Benefit pension expense 17 47

Restructuring costs approx 190 approx 75

EBITDA normalized approx 3,682 3,622 to 3,822 (1.5) to 4%

17

Consolidated segment – EBITDA normalized

Normalized EBITDA growth of up to 4%

Page 18: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

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Positive tax related adjustments

2009E

3.10 to 3.30

2.64 to

2.84

2010 EPS ($)

EPS excluding tax related adjustments up 6 to 20%

2010E

2.90 to 3.30

Page 19: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

2009E 2010E

19

2010 consolidated capex target ($M)

approx 2,100

approx 1,700

Capex returning to historical levels

2008120072006

1,8591,7701,618

1 Excludes $882M in AWS spectrum

Page 20: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

2009E2 2010E2

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Consolidated capex intensity levels

Decline in capital intensity driven by substantialcompletion of wireless 3G+ network in 2009

200812007

20%19%

22%

17%

1 Excludes $882M payment for AWS spectrum2 Midpoint of guidance

Page 21: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

2009E 2010E

21

Free cash flow ($M)

2010 cash flow growth of 39 to 75%

200812007

1,388

361

approx550

765 to 965

1,243

AWS spectrum

Page 22: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

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Strong position with sustainable cash flows and ample liquidity Committed $2B credit facility does not expire until May 2012 TELUS’ Dec. 2009 5.05% Cdn$1B note issuance used to call

30% of total US$3B June 2011 notes and related FX swaps (effective cost 8.493%)

Consistent with TELUS’ prudent Treasury management Costs related to early redemption expected to result in after

tax impact in Q4 of approx. $0.21 per share Plan to refinance remaining 2011 maturity over next 18 mths

TELUS’ funding position

TELUS’ strong balance sheet a result of sound long-term financial policies

Page 23: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

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TELUS long-term debt maturity schedule

Extending and levelling out of maturity profile

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020+

C$ billions

Long Term Debt

Deferred FX Hedge Liability

CP + Credit Facility DrawdownsA/R Securitization

Page 24: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

Consolidated revenue growth of up to 5% driven by wireless Increased smartphone loading

Consolidated EBITDA growth due to wireless revenue growth and reduced wireline costs due to efficiency initiatives offsetting significant subsidy increase and expected subscriber growth

Decline in capital intensity driven by substantial completion of wireless 3G+ network in 2009

Free Cash flow growth of more than 40%

24

Summary - 2010 targets

Opportunity in 2010 to leverage investments in our core business, wireless growth and operating efficiency

Page 25: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

investor relations1-800-667-4871

[email protected]

Questions?

Page 26: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

Percentage increases calculated from 2010 ranges to mid-point of 2009 ranges

EBITDA: earnings, after restructuring and workforce reduction costs, before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization

Capital intensity: capex divided by total revenue

Cash flow: EBITDA less capex

Free cash flow: EBITDA, adding Restructuring and workforce reduction costs, net employee defined benefit plans expense, cash interest received and excess of share compensation expense over share compensation payments, subtracting cash interest paid, cash taxes, capital expenditures, cash restructuring payments, employer contributions to employee defined benefit plans, and cash related to Other expenses such as charitable donations and securitization fees

Cost of retention (COR): total costs to retain existing subscribers, often presented as a percentage of network revenue

TELUS definitions for non-GAAP measures

Appendix – definitions

Page 27: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle  President & CEO December 15, 2009

~(450)

2010E

Net Cash Interest

$3,500 to 3,700EBITDA

($M)

~(80)Other1:

Free Cash Flow

1 Includes restructuring expense (net of cash payments), share based compensation (net of cash payments) and cash payments related to charitable donations and securitization fees

~(1,700)Capex

865 to 1,065

Net cash tax payment (385) to (425)

Cash pension contribution (in excess of expense) ~(100)

Free Cash Flow (incl. cash pension contribution) 765 to 965

27

Appendix – 2010E Free cash flow

2009E

~(415)

~$3,475

~35

~(2,100)

~725

~(270)

~(175)

~550