february 2006 the new geography of trade? - focal.ca · pricewaterhousecoopers do brasil ˜ sadia...

ABDIB � ABIEC � ABIOVE � APEX � Aracruz Celulose � AVIC II � Banco do Brasil � Bank of China � Baosteel � Barbosa, Müssnich &

Aragão Advogados � Benxi � BM&F � Bradesco � Câmara Chinesa de Máquinas e Eletrônicos � Câmara Chinesa de Têxteis � Caramuru �

CBMM � CCECC � Cenibra � Chalco � China Aluminium Group � China Harbour Engineering � China International Forestry Group � China

National Machinery & Equipment Imp/Exp � Chinatex � CITIC � COFCO � Comexport � Construtora Odebrecht � Cooxupé � CREC �

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce � Embraco � Embraer � FIEMG � FIRJAN � Fundação Dom Cabral � Genertech � Gree � Huawei � Itaú BBA

� Jiangyin Chengxin � KPMG � Maeda Agroindustrial � Minmetals � Norinco � Nuctech � Petrobras � Pinheiro Neto Advogados � Politec �

PriceWaterhouseCoopers do Brasil � Sadia � Shanghai Anxin Flooring � Shanxi Dajin International � Shanxi Foreign Investment & Trade � Sab

Company � Shanxi Dajin International � Shunye Iron & Steel � Sinopec � Suzano � SVA � Tozzini, Freire, Teixeira e Silva Advogados �

Trench, Rossi e Watanabe Advogados � Usiminas � Veirano Advogados � Votorantim � Weg Indústrias � Yankuang � ZTE � ABDIB �

ABIEC � ABIOVE � APEX � Aracruz Celulose � AVIC II � Banco do Brasil � Bank of China � Baosteel � Barbosa, Müssnich & Aragão

Advogados � Benxi � BM&F � Bradesco � Câmara Chinesa de Máquinas e Eletrônicos � Câmara Chinesa de Têxteis � Caramuru � CBMM �

CCECC � Cenibra � Chalco � China Aluminium Group � China Harbour Engineering � China International Forestry Group � China National

Machinery & Equipment Imp/Exp � Chinatex � CITIC � COFCO � Comexport � Construtora Odebrecht � Cooxupé � CREC � Companhia

Vale do Rio Doce � Embraco � Embraer � FIEMG � FIRJAN � Fundação Dom Cabral � Genertech � Gree � Huawei � Itaú BBA � Jiangyin

Chengxin � KPMG � Maeda Agroindustrial � Minmetals � Norinco � Nuctech � Petrobras � Pinheiro Neto Advogados � Politec �

PriceWaterhouseCoopers do Brasil � Sadia � Shanghai Anxin Flooring � Shanxi Dajin International � Shanxi Foreign Investment & Trade � Sab

Company � Shanxi Dajin International � Shunye Iron & Steel � Sinopec � Suzano � SVA � Tozzini, Freire, Teixeira e Silva Advogados �

Trench, Rossi e Watanabe Advogados � Usiminas � Veirano Advogados � Votorantim � Weg Indústrias � Yankuang � ZTE � ABDIB � AB

The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations

February 2006

We will define a new geography of trade.President Lula, shortly before his visit to China in May 2004

Brazil and China are materializing theirstrategic leadership.

Senior diplomat, April 2004

Billions in Chinese invesment!Press headline, May 2004

China is an unfair competitor.Representative of the machinery industry, March 2005

Safeguards must be applied to shield ourindustries against Chinese competition.

Speech by the chairman of a major business organization, June 2005


2000-2005

China-Brazil Business CouncilOttawa, 10 February 2006

www.cebc.org.br

1. The trade axis

Sino-Brazilian trade (US$ millions)

676 1.0851.902

2.520

4.5325.444

6.833

8651.222

1.328

1.554

2.147

3.700

5.353

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Exports Imports Balance

-24

9

-13

7

57

4 96

6

23

85

17

44

14

80

100%

75

50

25

Brazil

China

Source: Ministry of Industry, Development and Trade - SECEX / Preparation: China-Brazil Business Council


Trends in China’s agricultural trade (US$ millions)

Source: Dr. Huang Jikun, China Centre for Agricultural Policy, CAAS

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Land intensive Labor intensive


-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%So

ybea

ns

Soy

oil

Soy

mea

l

Ora

nges

Cotto

n

Beef

Pork

Poul

try

Suga

r

Corn

Appl

es

Rice

Whe

at

Toba

cco

China Brazil

high median lowChinese dynamism:

Consumption of chosen agricultural productsAnnual average growth (1995-2003)


Source: Mario Jales - Instituto ICONE, SECEX, China Customs

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Orangejuice

Soybeans Pork Cotton

Brazil Others

61 33 31 26 2,8 1,5 1,0 0,001

Brazil’s participation in China’s agricultural imports - 2003

Source: Mario Jales - Instituto ICONE, SECEX, China Customs


Impact on metal marketsCopper Demand by Decade

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1950-1960

1960-1970

1970-1980

1980-1990

1990-2000

2000-2010

'000

tonn

es

ChinaOther

Aluminium Demand by Decade

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1950-1960

1960-1970

1970-1980

1980-1990

1990-2000

2000-2010

'000

tonn

es

ChinaOther

Nickel Demand by Decade

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1950-1960

1960-1970

1970-1980

1980-1990

1990-2000

2000-2010

'000

tonn

es

ChinaOther

Zinc Demand by Decade

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1950-1960

1960-1970

1970-1980

1980-1990

1990-2000

2000-2010

'000

tonn

esChinaOther

Source: Jim Lennon, MacQuarie Bank


Is Sino-Brazilian trade unbalanced?Argentina US

World EU

China

ManufacturesSemi-manufactures

Base products

71,1%

19,0%

9,3%

92,0%

4,6%3,0%

40,7%

11,7%

47,4%

16,7%

14,7%

68,4%

55,1%

13,5%

29,3%


Source: SECEX / Elaboration: China-Brazil Business Council

Mechanicalmachinery andEquipment

Electricalequipment andparts

Imports from chosen countries World imports and country participation

OthersArgentinaEUUS

ChinaWorld

Data-processingequipment


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2003 20050

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

US$

milh

ões

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2003 20050

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

US$

milh

ões

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2003 20050

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

US$

milh

ões

0

750

1500

2250

3000

3750

4500

5250

2000 2003 2005U

S$ m

ilhõe

s

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2000 2003 2005

US$

milh

ões

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

1050

2000 2003 2005

US

$ m

ilhõe

s


Textile and apparel

Footwear

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2003 20050

200400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

16001800

US$

milh

ões

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2003 2005

US$

milh

ões

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2003 2005

U$

milh

ões

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2003 20050

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

US$

milh

ões


Imports from chosen countries World imports and country participation

OthersArgentinaEUUS

ChinaWorld


19781985

1990

20002005

Technologicalintensity

Evolution of technological sophistication of Chinese exports

PetroleumCoal

Simple manufactures

TextilesGarments

Electrical parts

Electronics,Naval ind. Appliances

Pharmaceuticals

Audio &video Telecom

Dataprocessing

Biotech.

Nano

Aerospace

Autos


FDI/GDP

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

57,0%

43,0%

Industrial goods

85,0%

15,0%Hightech

Chinese exports x

capital source

National

Foreign


ExportExport partnerspartners measuredmeasured by by marketmarket sizesize andand importimport dynamismdynamism

Import market sizeImport growth rate 2003/04 & 1997/98

> US$ 100m/year US$ 20 toUS$ 100 m/year

< US$ 20m/year

> 100% South Korea; Mexico; China

India; S. Africa; Russia; Thailand

Algeria, Costa Rica,Iran

63% < t < 100%US; Canada Saudi Arabia Chile; Colombia

< 63% EU; Japan Morrocco; Venezuela; Argentina

Source: CNI

Market access importance and negotiation priorities


2. …and billions in investment


Chinese investment in South America – 2004 announcements

• Brazil – railways, transportation infrastructure, steel, gas, alumina, ,mining, farming

• Argentina – Treasury bonds (?), gas, farming• Chile – copper• Peru – mining, gas (?)• Venezuela – oil (long-term supply contracts)

Imports are growing at a staggering pace in both value and market share

China is replacing more traditional suppliers of manufactures

Investments announced in 2004 failed to materialize. But a second, more modest wave of investments is likely.

Conclusions


Thanks!

谢谢

Obrigado!

www.cebc.org.br


Divergencia estadística Productos importados por Brasil de China (US$ millones)

Fuente: SECEX y China Customs Statistic Yearbook / Elaboración: Consejo Empresarial Brasil-China

Datos Brasil (SECEX)Datos China (China National Customs)

Productos químicos orgánicos

Confeccionesde malla

Confeccionesexcepto de malla

Calzados Autos y partes

Aparatosde óptica

48,5

37,3

16,2

26,5 25,9

51,8

31,9

23,320,7

36,1

133,7

40,0


Appendices

100 100 100 100 100 100

76,9

163,5

200,0

73,0

174,3

29,9

Divergencia estadística Productos importados por Brasil de China (%)

Fuente: SECEX y China Customs Statistic Yearbook / Elaboración: Consejo Empresarial Brasil-China

Datos Brasil (SECEX)Datos China (China National Customs)

Productos químicos orgánicos

Confeccionesde malla

Confeccionesexcepto de malla

Calzados Autos y partes

Aparatosde óptica


Appendices

Hacia la apertura - productos con fuerte desempeño en 2005 (US$ MM)

Petróleo y derivados Cueros y pieles

Productos químicos orgánicos e inorgánicos

Máquinas, herramientas e aparatos mecánicos

Tabaco Carnes y lácteos

Enero a julio de 2005

Enero a julio de 2004

57,8

19,2

48,2

2,3

68,757,2

137,8113,0

164,3

99,9

270,5

55,1


Appendices

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Mai

z

Arro

z

Trig

o

Alg

odón

Taba

co

Azú

car

Soj

a gr

ano

Soj

a ac

eite

Soj

a sa

lvad

o

Man

zana

s

Nar

anja

s

Car

ne g

anad

o

Car

ne p

ollo

Car

ne p

orci

na

Brasil China

Fuente: ICONE, USDA

471% 216% 262%

Consumo agrícola - productos seleccionados Tajas promedias de auto-suministro en Brasil y China, 2001-2003


Appendices

15,6

690

108

182

37

India

0,4

959

4

55

10

Brasil

12,5

1044

130

71

18

China3012Arancel promedio (%)

277350Arancel máximo (%)

633167No. De líneas > 30% (1)

30,39,1Relación (1) / (2)

20911829Total de líneas arancelarias (2)

UE 15EEUU

Niveles de protección: aranceles agrícolas (2004)

Apuntes- aranceles convertidos en equivalentes ad valorem- en el caso de China, fueron considerados los aranceles al final del período de transición de las reglas de la OMC

Fuente: Instituto ICONE


Appendices

Proyectos estratégicos chinos – minería

Cu, Au

Mn, Fe

Zn, Ni

Cu

Fe, CuCu, Zn, Au

Au

Cu, Fe

Cu

Ni

Cu, Co

Ni

CuCu

Fe, Zn

Zn

Ni, Co

Ni

Ni


Appendices

Conocimiento y preparación: inserción creciente del “factor China” en el planeamiento estratégico empresarial

El ascenso Chino es un hecho – no desaparecerá con defensa comercial

Principal riesgo de corto plazo: pérdida de participación en terceros mercados

Promoción de ventajas competitivas nacionales

Políticas públicas más favorables a la inversión nacional y extranjera

Desarrollo de nichos competitivos

Inserción competitiva en el mercado chino: promoción comercial e inversiones

Qué estrategias empresariales adoptar frente al ascenso Chino?


Appendices

Proyectos estratégicos chinos – petróleo y gas


february 2006 the new geography of trade? - focal.ca · pricewaterhousecoopers do brasil ˜ sadia...

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