february 2007 in jakarta, indonesia
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February 2007 in Jakarta, Indonesia. A New Proposal for the Research Program to Promote Science and Technology for FY 2007-09 Strategic Promotion of Collaborations in Science and Technology in Asia International Research Project for Prevention and Mitigation of Meteorological Disasters. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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February 2007 in Jakarta, Indonesia
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A New Proposal for the Research Program to Promote Science and Technology for FY 2007-09
Strategic Promotion of Collaborationsin Science and Technology in Asia
International Research Projectfor Prevention and Mitigationof Meteorological Disasters
A New Proposal for the Research Program to Promote Science and Technology for FY 2007-09
Strategic Promotion of Collaborationsin Science and Technology in Asia
International Research Projectfor Prevention and Mitigationof Meteorological Disasters
PI: Shigeo YODENKyoto University
in collaboration with MRI/JMA and ITB/Indonesia
PI: Shigeo YODENKyoto University
in collaboration with MRI/JMA and ITB/Indonesia
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平成 19 年度科学技術振興調整費新規提案課題
アジア科学技術協力の戦略的推進1 - 1 自然災害への対応に資する防災科学技術分野の研究開発
東南アジア地域の気象災害軽減国際共同研究
平成 19 年度科学技術振興調整費新規提案課題
アジア科学技術協力の戦略的推進1 - 1 自然災害への対応に資する防災科学技術分野の研究開発
東南アジア地域の気象災害軽減国際共同研究
研究代表者: 余田 成男代表機関: 京都大学
国内参画機関: 気象庁 気象研究所国外参画機関: インドネシア バンドン工科大学
研究代表者: 余田 成男代表機関: 京都大学
国内参画機関: 気象庁 気象研究所国外参画機関: インドネシア バンドン工科大学
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Experimental downscale NWPs in SE Asia ↓ Research and development of “ Decision support system for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disasters”
Establishment of “International Scientist-Network for Prevention and Mitigation of Meteorological disasters in SE Asia”
Purpose
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(a) Experimental downscale NWPs in the tropics with meso-scale models
(b) Assessments of the impact of new observational data on NWPs with advanced data assimilation schemes
(c) Development of a unified data base and “Decision support system for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disasters”
(+) International collaborations through workshops and short/long visits
Major Research Subjects
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(a) Experimental downscale NWPs in the tropics with meso-scale models
GSM
MSM
1.5km-NHM
気象庁
(Slingo, 2006)
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Dr. Tri W. Hadi and his PC cluster (ITB)
Recent attempt by Pak Tri at ITB
WEB page of Climate Prediction Laboratory (WCPL) http://weather.geoph.itb.ac.id/
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Kyoto Univ.EAR at Koto Tabang, West Sumatra, Indonesia
(b) Assessments of the impact of new observational data on NWPs with advanced data assimilation schemes
GPS-LEO occultation techniques for T and water vapor
advanced data assimilation
With4D-VAR or EnKF
advanced data assimilation
With4D-VAR or EnKF
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Unified Data Exchange System
ファイル形式の隠蔽 etc
Distributed Data Management System
研究者 ユーザー利用
THORPEX
(c) Development of a unified data base
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“Decision support system for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disasters”
WMO(2005) THORPEX: A World Weather Research Program
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International Workshop on Regional Models for the Prediction
of Tropical Weather and Climate
International Workshop on Regional Models for the Prediction
of Tropical Weather and Climate
March 1~3, 2006 at Sheraton Bandung Hotel & Tower,Indonesiasponsored by KAGI21
March 1~3, 2006 at Sheraton Bandung Hotel & Tower,Indonesiasponsored by KAGI21
(+) International collaborations through workshops and short/long
visits
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Research Groups
流動型ポスドク研究員
モデル共同開発データ共同利用
国際的技術協力
(1) Fundamental Research and System Development
Kyoto University メソモデルを用いた熱帯域気象のダウンスケール予報実験 最新データ同化システムの試験開発と機動的観測データのインパクト実験 観測・予報データ統合データベース・気象災害対策判断支援システム試作 国際研究集会の開催と国際的技術協力
(2) Operational Model Development
MRI/JMA 気象庁モデルの精緻化と検証実験 メソモデル国際共同研究への環境整備 メソモデル熱帯域データ同化実験
(3) Near-Real Time Experiment
ITB, NTU, and some others
東南アジア域ダウンスケール予報の 準リアルタイム実用化実験 バンドン工科大学内外における国際 共同研究推進組織の立上げ
国際ワークショップ・研修スクールの開催等
若手研究者長期短期滞在型研究
機動的共同観測モデル共同開発
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International relationship of colleagues in Kyoto University in SE and S Asia
Bangladesh : B.I.T. ・ Mohammad Nazrul Islam Hayashi, Satomura
Cambodia : SatomuraIndia : NCMRWF ・ V.S. Prasad Hayashi, TsudaIndonesia : ITB ・ Emmy Suparka, Tri W. Hadi, ・・・ BMG ・ Mezak A. Ratag Tsuda, Shiotani, YodenLaos : DMH ・ Palikone Thalongsengchanh Yoden, SatomuraMalaysia : MNU ・ Fredolin T. Tangang DM ・ Mohan K. Sammathuria Satomura, TsudaNepal : Satomura, Hayashi, IshikawaPhillipine : PNU ・ Josefina C. Argete Manila Obs. ・ Mariano Estoque SatomuraSaudi Arabia : IshikawaSingapore : NTU ・ Tieh Yong Koh, Lan Yi, ・・・ YodenThai : TMD ・ Somchai Baimoung, Kam Promasakha Satomur
aVitenam : Hanoi Univ. ・ Kieu Thi Xin, Duc Le Shiotani, Satom
ura
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(1)Histories
Kyoto University has unique tradition in field survey in SE Asia and Africa (natural science and liberal arts)
JMA is one of the most advanced forecast centers with a brilliant history of NWPs in the 20 century
MOU on collaborations in research and education between Kyoto Univ. and ITB in 2006
Backgrounds and Prospects
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(2) Advances in computer technologyExponential growth in the last half century
computational speedmemory size
The Earth Simulator
R&D Center
http://www.es.jamstec.go.jp/esc/jp/index.html
ENIAC
http://ei.cs.vt.edu/~history/
ENIAC.Richey.HTML
These years are exciting period in NWPs and climate simulations!
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An example in climate change simulationsClimateprediction.net
http://www.climateprediction.net/ 108,000 participants from 188 countries (as of February, 2007)
Stainforth et al. (2005) “Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels
of greenhouse gases”. Nature, 433, 403-406
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(3) Recent activities International workshop/meeting on meso-scale NW
Ps 1) KAGI21 “International Workshop on Regional Models
for the Prediction of Tropical Weather and Climate” ( March 2006, Bandung, Indonesia) about 30 participants from 9 countries of ASEAN/Japan 2) 3rd AOGS annual meeting “Applied Mesoscale Numer
ical Weather Prediction in SE Asia” ( July 2006, Singapore) 30 ~ 40 participants
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(4) Societal needs/merits
Potential increase of the risk of high-impact weather associated with global warming and/or economical development
Usefulness of new knowledge on tropical meteorology with application to NWSs of hot and humid weather (Typhoon, BAIU front, ・・・ )
Better international relationship through collaborations with highly-talented young scientists in SE Asia on the research of advanced NWPs
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(5) Economical values
Design of optimum observation system for NWPs
Impact of high-resolution information on risk management (floods, stormy winds, etc.), water-resource management, ・・・
Utilization of probability information obtained by ensemble NWPs in the fields of aviation, transportation, industry, agriculture, commerce, ・・
Environmental issues with longer time scales: global warming, air pollution with long-range transport, ・・・
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Final Remarks
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提供: JAXA
WINDS (Wideband InterNetworking engineering test and Demonstration Satellite)
will be launched in 2007Test use to transfer global GPV data of medium-range ensemble forecasts
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A review paper on “Atmospheric Predictability”
Yoden (2007)Special Issue of J. Met. Soc. Japan on 125 th anniversary of the foundation of MSJContents:
1. A historical perspective 2. Theories on atmospheric predictability 3. Ensemble numerical weather predictions 4. THORPEX challenges 5. Concluding remarks
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Backup Slides
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大 学・研究機関 フロンティア・ESC・電力中研・他
気象庁
実験的気象予測研究プラットフォーム現業予報解析システム・現業データの提供
気象庁と大学・研究機関との統一インターフェイス
次期予報解析システムの提案
現予報解析システムの改良点指摘
次世代予報解析システム実験
事例解析・ハインドキャスト実験
共同研究契約の一括締結