february 2015 oil & gas update - great american...
TRANSCRIPT
1 February 2015 — Oil & Gas Update
1
In this issue Trending News 1
Introduction to GA 1
Commodity Prices 2
Rig Count 2
Texas Drilling Activity 3
Drilling Rig Day Rates 4
Drilling Rig Utilization 5
Well Service Rigs 6
Drilling Activity Trends 7
Natural Gas Storage 7
FEBRUARY 2015
Oil & Gas Update
1 February 2015 — Oil & Gas Update
1 Trending News
GA has built a quality team to deliver
both tangible and intangible valuations
across the O&G platform.
Recently appraised assets include:
Compression Equipment
Drilling & Well Service Equipment
Frac Tank Rental/Manufacturing
Well Logging Tools
Pipeline Equipment
Pressure Pumping Units
Rental Tools
Transportation Assets
Wire Line Services
Saltwater Disposal Wells
Valves
Tubular Goods
Robert Callaway
Head of Oil & Gas
Great American Group
(972) 589‐3308
Drew Jakubek
Managing Director
Great American Group
(214) 455‐7081
Contact Us
Introduction to GA
U.S. Shale Oil’s Crash Diet Likely to Bring Forward Output Dip
Rig Count Reaches Five‐year Low; Forecast Projects More Losses
Shale Producers Postpone Well Completions
EIA’s February Short‐Term Energy Outlook
IEA’s Oil Market Report
GA is a leading provider of appraisal services to the Oil and Gas (“O&G”)
sector. When a reliable valuation is required, our industry experts are
there to assist private equity groups, investment and commercial banks,
finance companies, as well as oilfield service companies across the U.S.
and Canada.
2 February 2015 — Oil & Gas Update
2 Commodity Prices
Drilling activity continues to slow. For
the week of February 20, 2015, drilling
rigs turning totaled 1,310, which
represented a decrease of 48 units from
the prior week, and is down
approximately 600 rigs from 2014 highs.
Land‐based rigs decreased by 48 to
1,250 rigs, while the Inland Waters was
down two rigs and the Offshore rig
count gained two rigs.
Week‐over‐week, Oil rigs were down
by 37 to 1,019 rigs, while the Gas rig
count was down by 11. The number of
Directional rigs increased five units to
128 rigs, Horizontal rigs were down by
46 to 979, and Vertical drilling rigs
decreased by seven to 203.
Rigs in the Permian Basin were down
by six to 362, and the Eagle Ford Shale
decreased by four to 160 rigs. The
Williston Basin was down five to 123,
and the Marcellus Shale count was flat
at 69 rigs.
Rig Count
3 February 2015 — Oil & Gas Update
3 Texas Drilling Activity
The drilling rig count in Texas averaged
773 in January and is averaging
approximately 600 in February, compared
to 872 rigs turning for the month of
December 2014. The rig count as of
February 20 was 576.
The Railroad Commission reported
approved well completions for January to
be 1,997; however, there seems to be a
delay in their processing. Note that these
were those that were approved as
opposed to submitted.
New permits filed in January totaled
1,106, compared to 1,315 in December and
1,476 in November. February is trending
to have approximately 800 new permits
submitted.
4 February 2015 — Oil & Gas Update
4 Drilling Rig Day Rates and Utilization
While there is an approximate six‐week lag from when the data is reported, the day rate
pricing is showing a drop in the major rig classes for January. Month‐over‐month, Class C and
D rigs dropped by about 0.25% in December of 2014 and then another 1.0% to 1.25% in January
of this year.
5 February 2015 — Oil & Gas Update
5 Drilling Rig Utilization
Utilization rate data as provided by RigData shows significant drops, especially in Class C
(1000‐1499 hp) and Class E (2000+ hp). These have dropped from around 85% to near 65% to
70%. Likewise, Class D (1500‐1999 hp) rigs have gone from 90% to 95% to around 82% in
January. Class B (500‐999 hp) has suffered even more and dropped from 60% to 65% to near
40% utilization.
This data is changing very rapidly and is challenging to gather real time. Based on recent
trends seen first hand in the Permian Basin, GA expects to see these rates drop even further in
the short‐term.
Source: RigData
6 February 2015 — Oil & Gas Update
6 Well Service Rigs
Well service rig counts through January 2015 are shown above by region. The service rig
count in the Permian Basin was down 50 to 625 on a month‐over‐month basis. This represents
a drop of roughly 100 rigs or 15% from the peak in January 2014. A good portion of the
reduction is said to come from rigs associated with completion work. The rig count associated
with maintaining producing wells or doing workover operations is reported to be more
resilient. The Rockies were down 10 rigs to 336, a drop of 37 from its peak. The Midcontinent
was down two rigs to 201. The Texas Gulf Coast ended the month at 196, down by 16 rigs.
The ArkLaTex region ended at 132, down seven units, and the Eastern U.S. was down five to
74.
7 February 2015 — Oil & Gas Update
7 Drilling Activity Trends
According to RigData’s survey dated
February 16, there is more negative news
about cuts in day rates. While some
contract drillers feel there may be a
bottoming out in day rates, most feel any
recovery is many months away.
Most drillers are expecting declines in rates
ranging from 10% to 30%, though a few feel
it could be more along the lines of 20% to
40%. Nearly two‐thirds expect work
volumes to decline further, but nearly a
third felt the industry was at bottom now.
Those surveyed report that operating costs
have decreased due to lower trucking rates
and fuel costs.
Margins are still reported to be tightening as
day rates are dropping more rapidly than
operating costs. Wages are being cut in a
range of 2% to 20%, but those reductions
have not yet caught up to the drop in day
rates.
Working gas in storage was 2,157 Bcf as of
February 13, 2015, according to EIA
estimates. This represents a net decline of
111 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks
were 678 Bcf higher than
last year at this time and 58
Bcf above the five‐year
average of 2,099 Bcf. In the
East Region, stocks were
28 Bcf below the five‐year
average following net
withdrawals of 97 Bcf.
Stocks in the Producing
Region were 26 Bcf above
the five‐year average of
772 Bcf after a net
withdrawal of 18 Bcf.
Stocks in the West Region were 60 Bcf above
the five‐year average after a net addition of
four Bcf. At 2,157 Bcf, total working gas is
within the five‐year historical range.
Natural Gas Storage