federal partnered collaborations helping to build a ... · • forecasting from summit to seas ......

Federal Partnered Collaborations Helping to Build a Weather Ready Nation

Victor HomNOAA National Weather Service

Silver Spring, Maryland

Kris LanderNOAA National Weather Service

Fort Worth, Texas

ASFPM 2017 Kansas City, MO Session F7 Wednesday May 3, 2017

National Weather Service

Outline

PART 1. Weather Ready Nation (WRN) Initiative

• NWS Motivation for WRN

• Goals and Objectives

• Current Status

PART 2. Federal Partner Activities to Help Build a Weather and Water Ready Nation

• Recent Activities in Flood Risk Communication, Flood Warning, Disaster Response

PART 3. Transforming Water Predictions

• Forecasting from Summit to Seas

• References on Pertinent Tools, Resources, and Webpages

3

PART 1Weather Ready Nation

(WRN) Initiative


Increase in Extreme Events“Average” Year and Trends in the U.S.

6 Atlantic Basin Hurricanes

1,300 Tornadoes 5,000 Floods26,000 Severe Thunderstorms

650 Deaths$15B in Losses

4

• Increasing population

• Increasing vulnerability

• More infrastructure at risk

• Signs of climate change

• Improved forecasts of extreme events 4-8 days in advance

• Need to take these forecasts to the next level for effective decision support

National Weather Service 5

Climate Adaptation ExampleObserved Change in Very Heavy Precipitation Events

SOURCE: USGCRP updated from Karl et al. 2009

Between 1958-2012


Floods are Dangerous and Costly

30 Year Flood Loss Averages 82 fatalities and $7.96 Billion damages/yr*

*Annual Adjusted


NWS Strategic Outcome:

A Weather-Ready Nation

Becoming a Weather-Ready Nation is about building community resiliency in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather, water, and climate events

“Ready, Responsive, Resilient”

REQUIRES NWS TO PRODUCE:

• Better Forecasts and Warnings

• Consistent Products and Services

• Actionable Environmental Intelligence

NWS needs to address the “last mile” that connects forecast to critical national,

state and location decisions

• Provide Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS)

• Deliver through Multiple and Reliable Dissemination Pathways

• Work with Partners to gain needed response; includes Embedding NWS in Emergency

Operations Centers and Incorporating Social Sciences

7

Involves entire US Weather Enterprise WORKING TOGETHER

to achieve far-reaching national preparedness for weather events


Commerce Strategic Plan NOAA Shared Priorities NWS Priorities

8

• Build a Weather-Ready Nation

• Open Data & Services

NWS Strategic Plan:6 Goals directed toward a

Weather-Ready Nation

• Build a Weather-Ready Nation

• Evolve the NWS

Agency Priorities Aligned

Weather-Ready Nation embraced by NAPA: “We Can’t do it Alone”

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

AMERICA IS OPEN FOR BUSINESS

STRATEGIC PLAN | FISCAL YEARS

2014-2018

commerce.gov

9

PART 2Federal Partner

Activities to Help Build a Weather and Water

Ready Nation

Integrated Water Resources Science and Services

(IWRSS): Partners and Missions

Water Science: to collect and disseminate reliable, impartial,

and timely information needed to understand the Nation's water

resources in order to minimize loss of life and property from natural

disasters

US Army Corps

of Engineers

Water Prediction: to provide weather, hydrologic, and climate

forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy

IWRSS Partnership

will expand over time

IWRSS Partnership

will expand

over time 10

Water Management: to strengthen our Nation's security,

energize the economy, and reduce risks from disasters

FEMA

Response and Mitigation: to support our citizens and first

responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against respond to, recover from and mitigate all hazards


IWRSS Chartered TeamsFlood Inundation Mapping (2012-2016)

Requirements and Design Teams

ASFPM 2016 FIM Workshop

Interoperability Data Synchronization (2012-2016)

Requirements and Design Teams

Model Registry (2016+)

Scoping Team

Recommended Course of Actions: CUAHSI-HydroShare

Tech Exchange Committee (2016+)

Scoping Team

Layout plans to foster more interagency collaboration surrounding water resources science questions and service challenges

IWRSS Activities

11


Association of State Floodplain Managers

NAI Emergency Management Guide

National Dam Safety Program

National Dam Safety Program Strategic Plan Workgroup

Public Safety at Dams Task Group

Emergency Action Planning Workgroup

Leveraging IWRSS FIM Inundation Mapping Standards to Share EAP Inundation Maps (current)

Demonstration Example in VA (fall 2017)

Virtual Table Top Exercise (fall 2017)

DSS-WISE

Emergency and Floodplain Management Activities

12


NOAA is a Proud Participation in SJ State ChaptersTeam DC

Potomac & Anacostia Rivers FIM

Team Alaska

Mendenhall Lake FIM

Team Georgia

Ocmulgee River FIM

Team Florida

Suwannee and Apalachicola

River FIM

Team Missouri

Numerous Locations

Checkout 2017 SJ Workshop &

Portfolio Book – 150+ Projects

Silver Jackets Activities(Recently Completed)

13


NOAA Regional Collaboration

14

Multi-Agency Runoff Risk Forecast - Central, Gulf of Mexico, and Great Lakes Regional

Drought Early Warning System – Central Regional

Improved Storm Surge Prediction Tools – North Atlantic


Sample of NWS Enhanced Products and ServicesExcessive Rainfall

Forecasts

Outlooks

Probabilistic

Flash Floods

2016 Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment

Post Wildfire Debris Flow and Flash Flood

Enhanced RFC Modeling and DSS Support

Improve Physics-Based Wave Height Guidance on Large Lakes

Alaska River Ice Breakup Map

NWS Community Activities

15

16

PART 3Transforming Water

Predictions


NWS Strategic Goals forWeather and Water-Ready Nation

• Improve Weather Impact-Based Decision Support Services

• Improve Water Forecasting Services based on “Total Water Prediction”

• Enhance Climate Services and adapt to climate-related risks

• Improve sector-relevant information in support of economic productivity

• Enable environmental forecast services supporting healthy communities and ecosystems

• Sustain a highly skilled, professional workforce equipped with training, tools, and infrastructure to meet mission

Prediction is what makes NOAA/NWS unique and indispensable!

Interdisciplinary/Collaborative

August 2014 – Harmful Algal Bloom

TOLEDO


Transforming

NOAA Water Prediction

Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasts


Transforming


Current AHPS

Current AHPS

National Water Model


Transforming


Integrated Water from Summit to Seas

Hurricane Hermine

Experimental Potential

Storm Surge Inundation

Graphics

Dixie County

Florida

Hurricane Matthew

Potential Storm Surge

Inundation Graphics

And

Watch/Warning

Products


Transforming


Impact-Based Decision Support Services


Weather and Water Ready Nation!

Working Together to Build

Federal Partnered Collaborations Helping to Build a Weather Ready Nation

[email protected] [email protected] 2017 Kansas City, MO Session F7 Wednesday May 3, 2017

Part 1. Weather Ready Nation (WRN) Initiative

• http://www.legislative.noaa.gov/policybriefs/NWS%20101%20Feb%20

2016.pdf

• https://www.munichre.com/site/mram-

mobile/get/documents_E1982729150/mram/assetpool.mr_america/Im

ages/5_Press_News/Press%20Releases/2016/1980_2016_Paket_US

A.pdf

• http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/heavy-

downpours-increasing

• http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml

• http://www.nws.noaa.gov/hic/flood_stats/recent_individual_deaths.sht

ml

• http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/

http://www.legislative.noaa.gov/policybriefs/NWS 101 Feb 2016.pdf

https://www.munichre.com/site/mram-mobile/get/documents_E1982729150/mram/assetpool.mr_america/Images/5_Press_News/Press Releases/2016/1980_2016_Paket_USA.pdf

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/heavy-downpours-increasing

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/hic/flood_stats/recent_individual_deaths.shtml

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/

PART 2. Federal Partner Activities to Help Build a Weather and Water Ready

Nation

• http://www.legislative.noaa.gov/policybriefs/NWS%20101%20Feb%202016.pdf

• Floods.org https://www.hydroshare.org/

• NAI

http://www.floods.org/index.asp?menuID=349&firstlevelmenuID=187&siteID=1

• NDSP https://www.fema.gov/national-dam-safety-program

• DSS-WISE: https://dsswiseweb.ncche.olemiss.edu/DSSWISE/index.php

• Silver Jackets: http://silverjackets.nfrmp.us/

• Silver Jackets 2017: http://frmpw.nfrmp.us/2017/agenda.cfm

• Silver Jackets BUZZ:

http://frmpw.nfrmp.us/2017/docs/Handouts_and_Materials/BUZZUpdatedSpecial

EditionFINAL14Feb2017.pdf

• Silver Jackets Projects:

http://frmpw.nfrmp.us/2017/docs/Friday/All_2017_Workshop_Posters_2-14-

17_categorized.pdf

• NOAA Regional Collaboration Drought:

http://www.regions.noaa.gov/central/index.php/highlights/developing-drought-

early-warning-systems/

• NOAA Regional Collaboration Storm Surge: http://www.regions.noaa.gov/north-

atlantic/highlights/sandys-legacy-improved-storm-surge-prediction-tools/

http://www.legislative.noaa.gov/policybriefs/NWS 101 Feb 2016.pdf

https://www.hydroshare.org/

http://www.floods.org/index.asp?menuID=349&firstlevelmenuID=187&siteID=1

https://www.fema.gov/national-dam-safety-program

https://dsswiseweb.ncche.olemiss.edu/DSSWISE/index.php

http://silverjackets.nfrmp.us/

http://frmpw.nfrmp.us/2017/agenda.cfm

http://frmpw.nfrmp.us/2017/docs/Handouts_and_Materials/BUZZUpdatedSpecialEditionFINAL14Feb2017.pdf

http://frmpw.nfrmp.us/2017/docs/Friday/All_2017_Workshop_Posters_2-14-17_categorized.pdf

http://www.regions.noaa.gov/central/index.php/highlights/developing-drought-early-warning-systems/

http://www.regions.noaa.gov/north-atlantic/highlights/sandys-legacy-improved-storm-surge-prediction-tools/

PART 2. Federal Partner Activities to Help Build a Weather and

Water Ready Nation

Excessive Rainfall Forecasts

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml

Excessive Rainfall Outlook http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/newero/

WPC Probabilistic QPF

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pqpf/conus_hpc_pqpf.php

Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment- 2016

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/2016_FFaIR_Final_Report.pdf

Post Wildfire Debris Flow and Flash Flood Web

Page http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrh/postwildfire/

Alaska River Ice Breakup Map

http://www.weather.gov/aprfc/breakupESRIMap

PART 3. Transforming Water Predictions

Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service http://water.weather.gov/

National Water Model http://water.noaa.gov/about/nwm

West Gulf RFC http://weather.gov/wgrfc

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/newero/

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pqpf/conus_hpc_pqpf.php

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/2016_FFaIR_Final_Report.pdf

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrh/postwildfire/

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