ferry safety and weather - abigail golden
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Presented at the 2015 Ferry Safety and Technology ConferenceTRANSCRIPT
Ferry Safety and Weather: A Statistical Approach
Abigail Golden
Worldwide Ferry Safety Association
2015 Ferry Safety and Technology Conference
New York City
Results
• Sources: local and global news reports
• 25 data fields collected for 165 accidents, including date, time, location, vessel operator, fatality count, etc.
14-Year Longitudinal Study
• Over 17,000 deaths worldwide in 39 countries (conservative estimate)
• Three-quarters of all deaths occurred in only five countries: Bangladesh, Senegal, Indonesia, Tanzania, and the Philippines
Fatalities
Senegal
Bangladesh
Created in Google Fusion Tables
Weather and Ferry Accidents • 53% of all ferry accidents at least partially caused by
adverse weather • Compare to 78% caused by human error and 33%
caused by overloading
• Common factors: • Strong currents and other navigational challenges • Wind and rain • Typhoons or seasonal storms (monsoons) • Fog
• Other factors: • Rogue or freak waves (more to come from Stephan
Grilli)
Weather does not act in isolation…
• Overloading implicated in 31% of weather-related accidents
• Vessel instability or mechanical failure played a role in 20% of weather-related accidents
• Collisions in fog Credit: Reuters/Rafiqur Rahman
Case Study MV Le Joola (2002)
• Senegalese ferry operated by the armed forces
• 1,863 fatalities; only 64 survivors
• Sank in a violent storm off the coast of Gambia
AFP
/Get
tyIm
ages
Wik
imed
ia C
omm
ons
Case Study MV Princess of the Stars (2008)
• Philippines vessel owned by Sulpicio Lines (now Span-Asia Carrier Corp.)
• 67 bodies recovered; 747 missing
US
Nav
y
Wik
imed
ia C
omm
ons
Solutions and Mitigations • Encourage insurance companies to take on the
developing world
• Improve weather information systems at sea
• The RANET Chatty Beetle
• Develop improved weather detection systems
• How will we deal with climate change?
Learn More Full dataset available at www.ferrysafety.org/news
Upcoming presentations at IMO and World Maritime Rescue Congress
Brand-new WFSA blog
Contact:
Abigail Golden
@saferferries