fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the ancient americas1 blame colombus? new...
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Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
1
Blame Colombus? New Blame Colombus? New
skeletal evidence and the skeletal evidence and the
paleodemography of the paleodemography of the
Americas over the millennia.Americas over the millennia.FertilityFertility: :
regulator of demographic dynamics regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americasin the Ancient Americas
paper posted at: paper posted at: www.hist.umn.edu/www.hist.umn.edu/
~rmccaa/paleodem.doc ~rmccaa/paleodem.doc
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Richard Steckel and Jerome Rose Richard Steckel and Jerome Rose (eds.), (eds.), The Backbone of History: The Backbone of History: Health and Nutrition in the Health and Nutrition in the Western HemisphereWestern Hemisphere (7000 BP – (7000 BP – 1900 AD), Cambridge University 1900 AD), Cambridge University Press, 2002Press, 2002• Largest collection of skeletal Largest collection of skeletal
microdata ever assembled: microdata ever assembled: 12,500 skeletons, 65 sites, 7 12,500 skeletons, 65 sites, 7 millennia millennia
• Uniform methodology: 24 bio-Uniform methodology: 24 bio-archaeologists, 6 historiansarchaeologists, 6 historians
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Subject:Subject:The human The human skeleton.skeleton.
Microdata:souMicrodata:source for rce for studying studying health, health, nutrition and nutrition and demographic demographic dynamicsdynamics
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Outline, 45 slides:Outline, 45 slides:• 1. (10) Bioarcheological evidence 1. (10) Bioarcheological evidence
on paleopathologies and height: on paleopathologies and height: Ancient America was no paradiseAncient America was no paradise
• 2. (15) Paleodemography: new 2. (15) Paleodemography: new methodmethod
• 3. (20) New findings: 3. (20) New findings: demographic dynamics for 3 demographic dynamics for 3 periods:periods:Ancient (7000 – 1500 BP)Ancient (7000 – 1500 BP)Classic (1500 – 500 BP)Classic (1500 – 500 BP)Historical (500 – 100 BP)Historical (500 – 100 BP)
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Blame Columbus? Blame Columbus? (Title of a (Title of a New York TimesNew York Times review of review of book, but not a concern of the book book, but not a concern of the book
itself)itself)• 1. Bioarcheological evidence on 1. Bioarcheological evidence on
paleopathologies and height: paleopathologies and height: Ancient America was no paradiseAncient America was no paradise
• 2. Paleodemography: new 2. Paleodemography: new methodmethod
• 3. Demographic dynamics for 3 3. Demographic dynamics for 3 periods:periods:Ancient (7000 – 1500 BP)Ancient (7000 – 1500 BP)Classic (1500 – 500 BP)Classic (1500 – 500 BP)Historical (500 – 100 BP)Historical (500 – 100 BP)
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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4 measures of health and 4 measures of health and nutritionnutrition
1.1. Porotic hyperostosisPorotic hyperostosis
2.2. Degenerative joint disease Degenerative joint disease (limbs, spine)(limbs, spine)
3.3. Dental diseaseDental disease
4.4. Stature Stature
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Hard Times in Ancient Hard Times in Ancient AmericasAmericas
»Skeletal Skeletal archaeology archaeology shows shows porotic porotic hyperostosis hyperostosis as nearly as nearly universal —universal —perhaps due perhaps due to extreme to extreme dependence dependence on corn. on corn.
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Porotic Hyperostosis: Porotic Hyperostosis: a physiological adaptation to a physiological adaptation to
inadequate absorption of inadequate absorption of oxygenoxygen
• High frequency: 1/3 – 1/12 of adults in High frequency: 1/3 – 1/12 of adults in these communities show signs of these communities show signs of extraordinary bone remodeling. extraordinary bone remodeling.
• Worsened over time: as the transition Worsened over time: as the transition to sedentary agriculture proceeded (1-to sedentary agriculture proceeded (1-3,000 BP), physiological conditions 3,000 BP), physiological conditions deteriorated. deteriorated.
• No gendered difference: “A near No gendered difference: “A near complete absence of sex differentials in complete absence of sex differentials in pathologies is surprising.”pathologies is surprising.”
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Degenerative joint disease Degenerative joint disease (DJD)(DJD)
• DJD: 10-20% of adults of both sexes.DJD: 10-20% of adults of both sexes.• From age 20, hard, repetitive work From age 20, hard, repetitive work
exacted severe wear on both sexes, exacted severe wear on both sexes, particularly of joints required for mobility, particularly of joints required for mobility, manipulation of objects, and manipulation of objects, and carrying carrying loads.loads.
• GenderGenderdifferences:differences:statisticallystatisticallysignificantsignificantin DJD andin DJD andcranialcranialfractures. fractures.
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Degenerative joint disease, Degenerative joint disease, spinespine::
picture worsenspicture worsens • Generally high levels ranging from Generally high levels ranging from
25 to 83% for adults from the 25 to 83% for adults from the Mesoamerican sites—a ubiquitous Mesoamerican sites—a ubiquitous affliction, principally due to hard affliction, principally due to hard labor. labor.
• ““Where the means of carrying heavy Where the means of carrying heavy burdens is almost solely the human burdens is almost solely the human body, an enormous biological cost is body, an enormous biological cost is exacted from the organism.”exacted from the organism.”
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Shovel Shovel shaped shaped incisors:incisors:geneticgenetictrait of trait of Native Native
AmericaAmericansns
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Severe Severe dental dental disease disease
was was common common
in in societies societies based on based on
corncorn
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Stature, 3 features stand Stature, 3 features stand out:out:
• 1. Males decline over time in mean 1. Males decline over time in mean height: 1 cm. per thousand years--height: 1 cm. per thousand years--due to worsening nutrition?due to worsening nutrition?
• 2. Female stature constant over 2. Female stature constant over time even from pre-historic time even from pre-historic period. period.
• 3. Males show decreasing stature 3. Males show decreasing stature from north (164 cm) to south (161 from north (164 cm) to south (161 cm). cm).
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Male stature declines over Male stature declines over time: confirmed in Center and time: confirmed in Center and
SouthSouth
Fig. 1. Change in Stature by Region: Mexican MalesYears Before Present
cent
imet
ers
NorthR**2= .04 b=-.0006 P>.59 mean=164.7
-5000 -2000 -1500 -750 -100
150
160
170
Yaqui
TarahumaCora
CuliacanPericuTecualil
RVerdetc
CandelarCandelar
V Reyes
cm
SouthR**2= .63 b=-.0036 P<.01 mean=160.7
-5000 -2000 -1500 -750 -100
150
160
170
MChiapasMYucatan
Tsotzil
Zapotec
Tzeltal
Zaculeu
PlayaCar
Altar
Can Cun
Coixtlah
Altar
M Alban
ZaculeuTikal
ChiapaCo
Jaina
Tikal
Altar
Dzibietc
ChiapaCo
Monte Ne
cent
imet
ers
CenterR**2= .53 b=-.0014 P<.01 mean=162.3
-5000 -2000 -1500 -750 -100
150
160
170
OtomiTotonac
TarascanNahuaTeotihuaBasin
Tehuacan
Teotihua
Tlatilco
Tehuacan
CuicuilcChupicuaTicoman
Tecolote
Tehuacan
cm
All RegionsR**2= .23 b=-.0014 P<.01 mean=162.1
-5000 -2000 -1500 -750 -100
150
160
170
OtomiTotonac
MChiapas
Yaqui
Tarahuma
MYucatan
Cora
Tsotzil
TarascanZapotecNahua
Tzeltal
Teotihua
CuliacanPericu
Zaculeu
PlayaCar
Altar
Tecualil
Basin
RVerdetcTehuacanCandelarCan Cun
Candelar
Coixtlah
Altar
M Alban
ZaculeuTeotihuaTikal
ChiapaCo
V Reyes
Jaina
Tlatilco
Tehuacan
CuicuilcTikal
Altar
ChupicuaDzibietc
ChiapaCo
Monte Ne
TicomanTecolote
Tehuacan
North North =165 cm =165 cm “no” “no” declinedecline
South South =161 cm =161 cm much much declinedecline
CenterCenter=162 cm =162 cm some some declinedecline
All All =162 cm =162 cm acceleratiaccelerating declineng decline
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Fig. 1. Stature of Mexican Males in Time and SpaceDegrees North
cm
Pre-Classic (3200-1800 BP)R**2=.12 b=-.25 P>.32 mean=163.9
15 20 25 30
150
170
DzibietcChupicua
Ticoman
CuicuilcTlatilco
Tehuacan
Monte Ne
ChiapaCo
Altar
Tikal
cm
Classic (1800-1200 BP)R**2=.36 b=.5 P>.11 mean=161.8
15 20 25 30
150
170
TikalAltarZaculeu
ChiapaCo
M Alban
Jaina Teotihua
V Reyes
cm
Post-Classic (1200-500 BP)R**2=.47 b=.36 P<.01 mean=162.8
15 20 25 30
150
170
ZaculeuAltar
Coixtlah
PlayaCarTehuacan
Can Cun
TeotihuaBasin
RVerdetc
Tecualil
CuliacanPericuCandelar
Candelar
cm
Modern (100-40 BP)R**2=.74 b=.78 P<.01 mean=159.2
15 20 25 30
150
170
TzeltalMChiapas
Tsotzil
Zapotec Nahua Tarascan
TotonacOtomi
MYucatan
Cora
Yaqui
Tarahuma
Male stature gradient S. (15°) to N. Male stature gradient S. (15°) to N. (30°): (30°):
greatest in modern times (1900-1960)greatest in modern times (1900-1960)
3200-1800 BP 3200-1800 BP
=164 cm =164 cm b=-.25, b=-.25, rr22=.12=.12
1800-1200 1800-1200 BP BP =162 cm =162 cm b=.50, b=.50, rr22=.36=.36
1200-500 BP1200-500 BP=163 cm =163 cm b=.36, b=.36, rr22=.47=.47
100-40 BP 100-40 BP =159 cm =159 cm b=.78, b=.78, rr22=.74=.74
Females (<150 cm) little variation in space Females (<150 cm) little variation in space or time.or time.
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Blame…?Blame…?
• 1. Bioarcheological evidence on 1. Bioarcheological evidence on paleopathologies and height: Ancient paleopathologies and height: Ancient America was no paradiseAmerica was no paradise
• 2. Paleodemography: new method2. Paleodemography: new method
• 3. Demographic dynamics for 3 periods:3. Demographic dynamics for 3 periods:Ancient (7000 – 1500 BP)Ancient (7000 – 1500 BP)Classic (1500 – 500 BP)Classic (1500 – 500 BP)Historical (500 – 100 BP)Historical (500 – 100 BP)
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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PaleodemograPaleodemographyphyMaterials:Materials:skeletons by skeletons by estimated age estimated age at deathat deathMethods:Methods:fit estimated fit estimated age age distributiondistributionto stable to stable modelsmodels
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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A quick lesson in model life A quick lesson in model life tables (of stable populations)tables (of stable populations)
• Stable populations: Stable populations: – regardless of initial conditions regardless of initial conditions – populations subjected to constant populations subjected to constant
birth and death rates birth and death rates – will evolve to stable age and death will evolve to stable age and death
structures, that is:structures, that is:•% population aged 0, 1, 2, … will be % population aged 0, 1, 2, … will be the same year-after-year as long as the same year-after-year as long as birth & death rates are stablebirth & death rates are stable
•% of deaths aged 0, 1, 2, … will be the % of deaths aged 0, 1, 2, … will be the same year-after-year …same year-after-year …
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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So, for the So, for the paleodemographer…paleodemographer…
• If ancient populations were stableIf ancient populations were stable• If the recovered skeletons are If the recovered skeletons are
representative of the dying representative of the dying populationpopulation
• And if the age at death of the And if the age at death of the skeletons can be estimated…skeletons can be estimated…• Then, we match observed skeletal age Then, we match observed skeletal age distribution with those of stable distribution with those of stable populations to derive: populations to derive: – Birth and death ratesBirth and death rates– Life expectancy, …even age structureLife expectancy, …even age structure
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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How exactly do we do this?How exactly do we do this?2 steps: 2 steps:
1. Materials: Age distribution of 1. Materials: Age distribution of skeletonsskeletons
• Example, Example, Belleville, Belleville, Ontario. Ontario. 1919thth century century white white populationpopulation—well —well preservedpreserved
AgeAge0055101015152020252530303535404045+45+
Deaths Deaths (n)(n)
239 239 31 31 12 12 4 4 22 22 11 11 21 21 36 36 31 31 116 116
%%45.7 45.7 5.9 5.9 2.3 2.3 0.8 0.8 4.2 4.2 2.1 2.1 4.0 4.0 6.9 6.9 5.9 5.9 22.122.1
Cum Cum %%
45.745.7 51.651.6 53.953.9 54.754.7 58.958.9 61.061.0 65.065.0 71.971.9 77.877.8100.0100.0
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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How exactly do we do this?How exactly do we do this?2 steps: 2. Models: life tables2 steps: 2. Models: life tables
• Coale & Demeny Coale & Demeny 19831983
• 25 e25 e00s: 20-80 years, s: 20-80 years, at 2.5 year intervalsat 2.5 year intervals
• 13 GRRs: 1 – 6 girls, 13 GRRs: 1 – 6 girls, at various intervalsat various intervals
• 4 Regions: North, 4 Regions: North, South, East, WestSouth, East, West
• Total: Total: 25x13x4=130025x13x4=1300
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Model West Model West Females level Females level
2,GRRs 0.8 – 62,GRRs 0.8 – 6 ee00 = 22.5 years = 22.5 years
• Statistics:Statistics:– Population Population
at/to ageat/to age
Cummulative %Cummulative %
Cummulative %Cummulative %
% Population at age% Population at age
% deaths at age% deaths at age
Other statsOther stats
– Deaths at/to Deaths at/to ageage– 18 stats for 18 stats for each GRR (see each GRR (see separate pages separate pages for other efor other e00s s and regions)and regions)
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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ee00=52.5=52.5
ee00=22.5=22.5
Question: Are age structures of dying determined by Question: Are age structures of dying determined by fertility (within a sheet) fertility (within a sheet) or mortality (between sheets)?
Between (mortality)?Between (mortality)?
Answer: contrary to common sense, fertility!!!Answer: contrary to common sense, fertility!!!
or mortality (between sheets)?or mortality (between sheets)?
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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GRR =2 , 3, 4, 5, 6; e0 = 20
Fertility effects are bigFertility effects are big
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Fig. 2. Mortality offers a small target
GRR = 3; e0 = 20, 30, 40, 50
Mortality effects are smallMortality effects are smallexcept at young (< 15) and old ages except at young (< 15) and old ages (60+)(60+)
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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GRR = 3e0=20, 30, 40, 50
GRR = 4e0=20, 30, 40, 50
GRR = 2, 3, 4, 5, 6e0=20
GRR = 2, 3, 4, 5, 6e0=50
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Three recent Three recent advances in advances in
paleodemography:paleodemography:1.1. Fertility has stronger effects on age Fertility has stronger effects on age
distributions than mortality.distributions than mortality.
2.2. Proportional hazard models are more Proportional hazard models are more robust than simple percentages.robust than simple percentages.
3.3. Fitting observed skeletal Fitting observed skeletal distributions to stable populations distributions to stable populations yield valuable demographic insights.yield valuable demographic insights.
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Four innovations hereFour innovations here
1.1. Use only “best” age data: ages 5-45Use only “best” age data: ages 5-45
2.2. Fit all possible models:Fit all possible models:
GRR GRR (gross reproduction ratio)(gross reproduction ratio) = 2-6 = 2-6
daughtersdaughters
ee00 (life expectancy at birth)(life expectancy at birth) = 20-50 years = 20-50 years
3.3. Consider range of good fits, instead of Consider range of good fits, instead of
only “best fit”—all “pretty good” fits only “best fit”—all “pretty good” fits
4.4. Calibrate paleodemographic results Calibrate paleodemographic results
against historical demography—against historical demography—
see next figuresee next figure
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Calibrating method: skeletal data Calibrating method: skeletal data for 19for 19thth century Belleville, Ontario century Belleville, Ontario
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Better fertility models fit a small spread: GRR=2.9-3.5Better mortality models range too widely: e0=20-50
good
ness
of f
it (p
>)
Fig. 3. Bellville: Many good fitting modelsgross reproduction ratio
2 2.5 3 3.5 4
.05
.5
.95
30 30 50405040 2020 40302020 5030 5040 304020505020 30
30 4020
40 50
3050
4020
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Calibration of life Calibration of life expectancy, eexpectancy, e00
(Belleville)*(Belleville)*• Conventional paleodemography: Conventional paleodemography:
20.8 years (MAD, “mean age at death”)20.8 years (MAD, “mean age at death”)
• PH models, using best age data, pretty PH models, using best age data, pretty good fits, GRR = 3.16, growth rate = 2%:good fits, GRR = 3.16, growth rate = 2%:36 years (see table 4.1)36 years (see table 4.1)
• Historical data (parish books, census)Historical data (parish books, census)36.5 years36.5 years
*thanks to an anonymous reviewer for the idea of calibrating *thanks to an anonymous reviewer for the idea of calibrating the method using Belleville.the method using Belleville.
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Blame…?Blame…?
• 1. Bioarcheological evidence on 1. Bioarcheological evidence on paleopathologies and height: paleopathologies and height: Ancient America was no paradiseAncient America was no paradise
• 2. Paleodemography: new 2. Paleodemography: new methodmethod
• 3. Demographic dynamics for3. Demographic dynamics for 3 periods: 3 periods:Ancient (7000 – 1500 BP)Ancient (7000 – 1500 BP)Classic (1500 – 500 BP)Classic (1500 – 500 BP)Historical (1500 AD – 1900)Historical (1500 AD – 1900)
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Paleodemography: new Paleodemography: new methods, surprising results: methods, surprising results:
Fertility, the keyFertility, the keyFertility: an important regulator of Fertility: an important regulator of
American demographic dynamics American demographic dynamics
• Lowest fertility: ancient times (1500+ BP), Lowest fertility: ancient times (1500+ BP),
GRR=~2.2GRR=~2.2
• Higher fertility: middle period (1500BP –Higher fertility: middle period (1500BP –
1500AD), GRR=~2.91500AD), GRR=~2.9
• Highest fertility: domesticated animals (horse, Highest fertility: domesticated animals (horse,
Plains Indians, 1500 AD-1900), GRR=3.2Plains Indians, 1500 AD-1900), GRR=3.2• Last five hundred years: large ethnic differentials, GRRLast five hundred years: large ethnic differentials, GRR
Native Americans: 2.8-2.9Native Americans: 2.8-2.9
African Americans: 3.1-3.3African Americans: 3.1-3.3
European Americans: 2.4-2.6European Americans: 2.4-2.6
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Time: Ancient, Classic, and post-Columbian Americas
Fig. 4. Fertility increased between ancient and classic erasLittle change between classic and post-Columbian eras
Early, GRR=2.1-2.3;sites: rea osg cot lat lib LNP teo KIT CUI TL2 MR1
p
grr
2 2.5 3 3.5 4
.05
.5
.9530
20
40
50
5020 40
30 3020
405050 40302040
Classic, GRR=2.8-2.9; sites: LNC QUI co9 cop 101 111 201PEA SUN MON dol J73 CO1 XCA AZ1 3AM CHB SGB Y1B ESB
p
grr
2 2.5 3 3.5 4
.05
.5
.95
40
5030
5020
20
3040 5050403020
Post-Columbian, GRR= 2.8-2.9;sites: snt 301 303 BUF haw dk2 KX1 CRW DW2 BU2 CHY BFT
p
grr
2 2.5 3 3.5 4
.05
.5
.95
50
4020
3030 5020
40 50
502040 403020 5030
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Settlement types: foragers, villagers, and townsfolk
Fig. 5. Village fertility is highest; urban, lowest
Foragers and Fishers, GRR=2.3-2.6;sites: osg LNP 101 111 KIT
p
grr
2 2.5 3 3.5 4
.05
.5
.952030
40 50
20 40302030 5040
50
2030 2030 4040 50502030 2040 30 5020 4050
Ancient Villagers, GRR=~2.7; sites: rea cot lat lib LNCQUI co9 201 PEA SUN MON dol TL2 AZ1 MR1 3AM CHB SGB Y1B ESB
p
grr
2 2.5 3 3.5 4
.05
.5
.952030
40
50
502030 40 20 5030 40
Ancient Urban, GRR=2.2-2.5;sites: cop teo CUI J73 CO1 XCA
p
grr
2 2.5 3 3.5 4
.05
.5
.95 2030
4050
40 5020 30
203040
5020 4030 3020 504020 5030 203040 40
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Ethnicity: Native-, European-, and African-Americans
Fig. 6. Fertility of African-Americans was highest; Euros-, lowest
Post-Columbian Native-Americans, GRR= 2.8-2.9;sites: snt 301 303 BUF haw dk2 KX1 CRW DW2 BU2 CHY BFT
p
grr
2 2.5 3 3.5 4
.05
.5
.95
50
4020
3030 5020
40 50
502040 403020 5030
Free African-Americans, GRR=3.1-3.3: FAB 3C9 3La C41DNote: Data for slave populations were too few to analyze
p
grr
2 2.5 3 3.5 4
.05
.5
.95 4030
20
50
2050
30
4040 3020
20 5030 504020 4030 2040 50 50
European-Americans, GRR=2.4-2.6;sites: cry ftl GPS stt HPK sfc sfa SF1
p
grr
2 2.5 3 3.5 4
.05
.5
.95
20
30
40 504030 5020
2030
40 40302050 502030
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Paleodemography: new Paleodemography: new methods, surprising results: methods, surprising results:
Mortality (pooled)Mortality (pooled)Life expectancy estimates, eLife expectancy estimates, e00: :
contingent upon a good estimate of growth ratecontingent upon a good estimate of growth rate
• Highest eHighest e00: ancient times (1500+ BP), ~34 years: ancient times (1500+ BP), ~34 years
• Lowest eLowest e00: middle period (1500-500), ~23 years: middle period (1500-500), ~23 years
• Modern: large ethnic differentials in eModern: large ethnic differentials in e00
Native Americans: eNative Americans: e00=~ 22-23 years=~ 22-23 years
African Americans: eAfrican Americans: e00=~ 21-29 years=~ 21-29 years
European Americans: eEuropean Americans: e00=~ 30-36 years=~ 30-36 years
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Three conclusionsThree conclusions
1.1. Great variations in fertilityGreat variations in fertility• Ancient timesAncient times,,
• low pressure demographic regime: low pressure demographic regime: • fertility was a brake on population fertility was a brake on population
growthgrowth
• Classic timesClassic times,,• high pressure demographic system: high pressure demographic system:
• higher fertility, low life expectancyhigher fertility, low life expectancy• mortality was the brake on pop. mortality was the brake on pop.
growthgrowth
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Three conclusionsThree conclusions
2. Agriculture was the “caboose” 2. Agriculture was the “caboose” of demographic change, not of demographic change, not the “engine” the “engine” • Agriculture seems to have evolved Agriculture seems to have evolved
as a response to demographic as a response to demographic pressurepressure
• Rather than propelling Rather than propelling demographic transformations.demographic transformations.
• Why? Because in classic times Why? Because in classic times demographic transformations demographic transformations occurred in all settlement types. occurred in all settlement types.
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Three conclusionsThree conclusions
3. 3. Modern periodModern period: fundamental : fundamental demography of native peoples demography of native peoples did not change with the clash did not change with the clash of biospheresof biospheres• Paleodemographic method is Paleodemographic method is
insensitive to demographic insensitive to demographic catastrophe—unless a mass grave catastrophe—unless a mass grave is foundis found
• Underlying fundamentals Underlying fundamentals persisted for almost a thousand persisted for almost a thousand years (til 1800)years (til 1800)
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Postscript: Blame Postscript: Blame Colombus? Colombus?
1.1. Demographic catastrophe was real—the Demographic catastrophe was real—the
debate is about magnitude and cause(s)debate is about magnitude and cause(s)
2.2. Magnitude: extinction for many smaller Magnitude: extinction for many smaller
populations (e.g, Tainos); 1/3-3/4 loss for populations (e.g, Tainos); 1/3-3/4 loss for
larger populations (Aztecs). larger populations (Aztecs).
3.3. Cause(s): the great debate—disease? Cause(s): the great debate—disease?
War/pacification/exploitation? Both?War/pacification/exploitation? Both?
4.4. Varied place-to-place: Varied place-to-place:
Hispaniola: exploitation, not disease…Hispaniola: exploitation, not disease…
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Blame Colombus? Blame Colombus? Hispaniola, certainly!! Hispaniola, certainly!!
Case of Hispaniola, see:Case of Hispaniola, see:
Bartolome de Las Casas, Bartolome de Las Casas, Brief Brief
Account of the Destruction of the Account of the Destruction of the
Indies (1596)Indies (1596), or , or
Massimo Livi-Bacci, “Return to Massimo Livi-Bacci, “Return to
Hispaniola”, February 2003, Hispaniola”, February 2003,
Hispanic American Historical Hispanic American Historical
ReviewReview
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
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Disease?: Disease?:
• First smallpox epidemic, 1518 (25 First smallpox epidemic, 1518 (25
years after contact, colonization). years after contact, colonization).
• Evidence of other introduced Evidence of other introduced
diseases in first decades is scant diseases in first decades is scant
(non-existent?). (non-existent?).
• Malaria and Yellow fever (cited by Malaria and Yellow fever (cited by
Wilford, NYT): 17Wilford, NYT): 17th-th- 18 18thth centuries centuries
Blame Colombus? Blame Colombus? Hispaniola, certainly!! Hispaniola, certainly!!
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
44
Exploitation?: Exploitation?:
ML-B: “tribute imposed by Colon at ML-B: “tribute imposed by Colon at
the end of 1495 to the caciques of the end of 1495 to the caciques of
the ‘pacified’ Tainos: every native the ‘pacified’ Tainos: every native
of 14 years or more was required of 14 years or more was required
to pay every three months one to pay every three months one
Flanders hawk’s bell full of gold…”Flanders hawk’s bell full of gold…”
Blame Colombus? Blame Colombus? Hispaniola, certainly!! Hispaniola, certainly!!
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
45
Exploitation?: Exploitation?:
• Fragile communities—”congregated”Fragile communities—”congregated”
• Little agricultural surplusLittle agricultural surplus
• All “work” devoted to food All “work” devoted to food
production production
• Unaccustomed to forced labor for Unaccustomed to forced labor for
building, gold mining. building, gold mining.
• Insatiable demand by Christians for Insatiable demand by Christians for
gold, slaves, servants, … sexgold, slaves, servants, … sex
Blame Colombus? Blame Colombus? Hispaniola, certainly!! Hispaniola, certainly!!
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
46
Demographic catastrophe and its Demographic catastrophe and its causes: viruses, Black Legend causes: viruses, Black Legend
and the social context of and the social context of epidemics (Mexico)epidemics (Mexico)
Alonso de Zorita (~1565): “...and it is certain that Alonso de Zorita (~1565): “...and it is certain that
from the day that D. Hernando Cortes, the Marquis from the day that D. Hernando Cortes, the Marquis
del Valle, entered this land...del Valle, entered this land...the natives suffered the natives suffered
many deaths, and many terrible dealings, many deaths, and many terrible dealings,
robberies and oppressions were inflicted on themrobberies and oppressions were inflicted on them, ,
taking advantage of their persons and their lands, taking advantage of their persons and their lands,
without order, weight nor measure; ...the people without order, weight nor measure; ...the people
diminished in great number, diminished in great number, as much due to as much due to
excessive taxes and mistreatment, as to illness excessive taxes and mistreatment, as to illness
and smallpoxand smallpox, such that now a very great and , such that now a very great and
notable fraction of the people are gone, and notable fraction of the people are gone, and
especially in the hot countryespecially in the hot country.”
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
47
Blame Colombus…??Blame Colombus…??The debate continues… The debate continues…
see next issues of see next issues of Revista de IndiasRevista de Indias and and
Hispanic American Hispanic American Historical ReviewHistorical Review
Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas
48
Thank youThank you * * * * * ** * * * * *
paper posted:paper posted:www.hist.umn.edu/~rmccaawww.hist.umn.edu/~rmccaa
/paleodem.doc/paleodem.docothers:others:Health & nutrition: /mxbioarc.docHealth & nutrition: /mxbioarc.doc
Aztec household & family: Aztec household & family: /nacolhist.htm/nacolhist.htm
Smallpox & catastrophe: Smallpox & catastrophe: /vircatas/vir6.htm /vircatas/vir6.htm