fighting over how to build peace

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Fighting Over Fighting Over How to Build How to Build Peace Peace Ionia Workshop Ionia Workshop Workshop 2011 Workshop 2011 Gary Armstrong, Ph.D. William Jewell College

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Fighting Over How to Build Peace. Ionia Workshop Workshop 2011 Gary Armstrong, Ph.D. William Jewell College. Why is Ending a War so Hard? What Makes Getting to Peace so Difficult?. Paul Kecskemeti, Strategic Surrender (1958) The Problem Illustrated: Dollar Auction The Problem Elucidated - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Fighting Over How Fighting Over How to Build Peaceto Build PeaceIonia WorkshopIonia Workshop

Workshop 2011Workshop 2011Gary Armstrong, Ph.D.William Jewell College

Page 2: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Why is Ending a War so Hard?Why is Ending a War so Hard?What Makes Getting to Peace so What Makes Getting to Peace so

Difficult?Difficult?

Paul Kecskemeti, Paul Kecskemeti, Strategic Strategic Surrender Surrender (1958)(1958)

The Problem Illustrated: Dollar The Problem Illustrated: Dollar AuctionAuction

The Problem ElucidatedThe Problem Elucidated

Kecskemeti’s SolutionKecskemeti’s Solution

Page 3: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

What is Peace?What is Peace?Negative/Positive ConceptionsNegative/Positive ConceptionsSt. Augustine’s Classic Conception:St. Augustine’s Classic Conception:– ““The peace, then…The peace, then…– of the body lies in the ordered equilibrium of all its parts; of the body lies in the ordered equilibrium of all its parts; – the peace of the irrational soul, in the balanced adjustment of the peace of the irrational soul, in the balanced adjustment of

its appetites; its appetites; – the peace of the reasoning soul, the harmonious the peace of the reasoning soul, the harmonious

correspondence of conduct and conviction;correspondence of conduct and conviction;– peace between mortal man and God in “ordered obedience, peace between mortal man and God in “ordered obedience,

guided by faith, under God’s eternal law”;guided by faith, under God’s eternal law”;– peace between man and man consists in regulated peace between man and man consists in regulated

fellowship.fellowship.– peace of home lies in ordered harmony of authority and peace of home lies in ordered harmony of authority and

obedience between members of family living together;obedience between members of family living together;– peace of political community is ordered harmony of authority peace of political community is ordered harmony of authority

and obedience between citizens.and obedience between citizens.– peace of Heavenly City lies in perfectly ordered and peace of Heavenly City lies in perfectly ordered and

harmonious communion of those who find their joy in God.harmonious communion of those who find their joy in God.– ““Peace, in its final sense, is the calm that comes of order.”Peace, in its final sense, is the calm that comes of order.”– Order is an arrangement of like and unlike things whereby Order is an arrangement of like and unlike things whereby

each of them is disposed in its proper place.each of them is disposed in its proper place. City of God, City of God, Book XIX, Chap 13Book XIX, Chap 13

Page 4: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Levels of Rational Levels of Rational War Terminations War Terminations

TruceTruce == MinimalMinimal

Balance ofBalance of == MediumMediumPowerPower

LiquidateLiquidate == HighHigh Conflict Conflict

ReorientationReorientation == IdealIdeal

Page 5: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

““The Hinge”The Hinge”Of Modern US Foreign PolicyOf Modern US Foreign Policy

Page 6: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Woodrow WilsonWoodrow WilsonPresident 1913-1921President 1913-1921

1856-19241856-1924Only President to know personally what Only President to know personally what defeat in war was likedefeat in war was likeOnly President with PhD in Political Only President with PhD in Political ScienceScienceSecond President to win Nobel PrizeSecond President to win Nobel PrizePresident Princeton University, 1902-President Princeton University, 1902-19121912Domestic Policy Accomplishments:Domestic Policy Accomplishments:– Federal Reserve createdFederal Reserve created– First graduated income taxFirst graduated income tax– Labor legislationLabor legislation

Massive Stroke, 1919Massive Stroke, 1919

                                                         

Page 7: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Theodore RooseveltTheodore Roosevelt

1858-19191858-1919War with Spain, 1898War with Spain, 1898US President, 1901-1909US President, 1901-1909First US President to win First US President to win Nobel Peace PrizeNobel Peace PrizeBreaks with Republican Breaks with Republican Party, 1912Party, 1912Reunion with Republican Reunion with Republican Party, 1916Party, 1916Expected Nominee, Expected Nominee, President 1920President 1920

Page 8: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Clash of Basic Clash of Basic PrinciplesPrinciples

Political Morality = Political Morality = Civilian Morality Civilian Morality

US ExceptionalUS Exceptional

Peace from Peace from Liberal Liberal DemocracyDemocracy

Peace from Peace from International LawInternational Law

Political Morality = Political Morality = Special MoralitySpecial Morality

US Normal Great US Normal Great PowerPower

Peace from Balance Peace from Balance of Powerof Power

Peace from Spheres Peace from Spheres of Influenceof Influence

Page 9: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Wilson’s War AimsWilson’s War AimsComplex or Contradiction?Complex or Contradiction?

Feb 1917: Peace without VictoryFeb 1917: Peace without Victory

April 1917: War to Make World Safe for DemocracyApril 1917: War to Make World Safe for Democracy

July 1918: Force, Force, Force to the Utmost!July 1918: Force, Force, Force to the Utmost!

August 1918: Overthrow Every Arbitrary PowerAugust 1918: Overthrow Every Arbitrary Power

November 1918: Insists Germany be beaten, but accepts November 1918: Insists Germany be beaten, but accepts negotiations negotiations

Page 10: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Wilson’s War AimsWilson’s War AimsComplex or Contradiction?Complex or Contradiction?

“…“…it must be a peace without victory. It is not it must be a peace without victory. It is not pleasant to say this…Victory would mean peace pleasant to say this…Victory would mean peace forced upon the loser, a victor’s terms imposed forced upon the loser, a victor’s terms imposed upon the vanquished. It would be accepted in upon the vanquished. It would be accepted in humiliation, under duress, at an intolerable humiliation, under duress, at an intolerable sacrifice, and would leave a sting, a resentment, sacrifice, and would leave a sting, a resentment, a bitter memory upon which terms of peace a bitter memory upon which terms of peace would rest, not permanently, but only as upon would rest, not permanently, but only as upon quicksand. Only a peace between equals can quicksand. Only a peace between equals can last.”last.”

Woodrow Wilson February 1917Woodrow Wilson February 1917

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Page 12: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Inferring Wilson’s War AimsInferring Wilson’s War Aims

Defeat but do not crush GermanyDefeat but do not crush Germany

Precipitate Internal Revolution in Precipitate Internal Revolution in GermanyGermany

Make British Empire and France Make British Empire and France dependent on USdependent on US

Page 13: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Senator Henry Cabot LodgeSenator Henry Cabot Lodge1850-19241850-1924

• Among first Harvard PhD in Among first Harvard PhD in HistoryHistory

• US Senate, 1893-1924US Senate, 1893-1924

• Becomes Senate Majority Becomes Senate Majority Leader & Senate Foreign Leader & Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair after Relations Committee Chair after November 1918 electionsNovember 1918 elections

• Detested Wilson: “That might Detested Wilson: “That might fly at Princeton, but certainly not fly at Princeton, but certainly not at Harvard!”at Harvard!”

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Lodge on PeaceLodge on Peace

……My view is a simple one. Nelson once said that the My view is a simple one. Nelson once said that the best diplomatists in Europe were his hundred-gun best diplomatists in Europe were his hundred-gun ships. Mr. President, the best diplomatists in Europe ships. Mr. President, the best diplomatists in Europe at this moment are the armies of France and Italy, of at this moment are the armies of France and Italy, of England and the United States. The best men to England and the United States. The best men to carry on discussion with Germany are Haig and carry on discussion with Germany are Haig and Pershing and Diaz, and over all the great commander, Pershing and Diaz, and over all the great commander, Marshal Foch. Those are the negotiators with whom I Marshal Foch. Those are the negotiators with whom I would leave the question of peace. They will win it. would leave the question of peace. They will win it. They will win it on German soil. They will bring back They will win it on German soil. They will bring back the peace which the whole American people desire, the peace which the whole American people desire, for they desire, I believe, unconditional surrender, and for they desire, I believe, unconditional surrender, and unconditional surrenders are not obtained by clever unconditional surrenders are not obtained by clever discussion and exchange of notes. They are won by discussion and exchange of notes. They are won by armies in the field. armies in the field.

Lodge, Senate Debate on War Termination, October 10, 1918Lodge, Senate Debate on War Termination, October 10, 1918

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Comparing Comparing PeacePeace

Lodge “10 Irreducible”August 1918

Wilson“14 Points”February 1918

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““The Lamb From the Slaughter”The Lamb From the Slaughter”

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Surprises in Wilson’s Surprises in Wilson’s War Termination DiplomacyWar Termination Diplomacy

Wilson never called for republic in Wilson never called for republic in Germany and effectively gave up on Germany and effectively gave up on German democratizationGerman democratization

Wilson demanded “regime change” to Wilson demanded “regime change” to catch up to American domestic opinioncatch up to American domestic opinion

Wilson lost control of armistice policyWilson lost control of armistice policy Wilson opposed key military components Wilson opposed key military components

of armisticeof armistice

Page 18: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Wilson on Regime Change & Wilson on Regime Change & Bolshevik ProblemBolshevik Problem

"The spirit of the Bolsheviki is lurking everywhere, "The spirit of the Bolsheviki is lurking everywhere, and there is no more fertile soil than war-weariness.and there is no more fertile soil than war-weariness.

"There is grave unrest all over the world. There are "There is grave unrest all over the world. There are symptoms of it in this country -- symptoms that are symptoms of it in this country -- symptoms that are apparent although not yet dangerous.apparent although not yet dangerous.

"We should consider too the condition of Germany. "We should consider too the condition of Germany. If we humiliate the German people and drive them If we humiliate the German people and drive them too far, we shall destroy all form of government, and too far, we shall destroy all form of government, and Bolshevism will take its place. We ought not to Bolshevism will take its place. We ought not to ground them to powder or there will be nothing to ground them to powder or there will be nothing to build up from.build up from.

William Wiseman, British envoy, Notes of a Conversation, Oct. 16, William Wiseman, British envoy, Notes of a Conversation, Oct. 16, 1918, in Fowler, 1918, in Fowler, British-American RelationsBritish-American Relations, p. 284. , p. 284.

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Wilson: Problem of Regime Wilson: Problem of Regime ChangeChange

Navy Secretary Josephus Daniels (diary for October 21): Navy Secretary Josephus Daniels (diary for October 21): "Why don't you Senators sometimes give me credit with "Why don't you Senators sometimes give me credit with not being a damned fool?" When the Senator persisted, not being a damned fool?" When the Senator persisted, Wilson finally asked him, “Had you rather have the Wilson finally asked him, “Had you rather have the Kaiser or the Bolsheviks?”Kaiser or the Bolsheviks?”Interior Secretary Franklin Lane (diary for Oct 22 1918): Interior Secretary Franklin Lane (diary for Oct 22 1918): President told Cabinet he "was afraid of Bolshevism in President told Cabinet he "was afraid of Bolshevism in Europe, and the Kaiser was needed to keep it down -- to Europe, and the Kaiser was needed to keep it down -- to keep some order. He really seemed alarmed that the keep some order. He really seemed alarmed that the time would come soon when there would be no time would come soon when there would be no possibility of saving Germany from the Germans. This possibility of saving Germany from the Germans. This was a new note to me." was a new note to me."

Sen. Ashurst, D-AZ

PWW, 51: p.403, 415

Page 20: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Different War, Different PeaceDifferent War, Different Peace

WilsonWilson Lodge & TRLodge & TR

Cause of war”Cause of war” Tragedy & StupidityTragedy & Stupidity German drive for German drive for powerpower

US entry?US entry? German outragesGerman outrages US cannot tolerate US cannot tolerate German-led EuropeGerman-led Europe

Main US war aimMain US war aim Reform World PoliticsReform World Politics Balance of PowerBalance of Power

Moderate VictoryModerate Victory Unconditional Unconditional Surrender Surrender

Regime Change w/oRegime Change w/o Regime Change Regime Change

RevolutionRevolution

America as MediatorAmerica as Mediator America & AlliesAmerica & Allies

Page 21: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Wilson vs. LodgeWilson vs. Lodge

WilsonWilson LodgeLodge

Liberal InternationalistLiberal Internationalist Realist InternationalistRealist Internationalist

Reform World PoliticsReform World Politics Contain GermanyContain Germany

National Self-DeterminationNational Self-Determination Barrier StatesBarrier States

DemocracyDemocracy WhateverWhatever

Collective SecurityCollective Security AlliancesAlliances

Strong MultilateralismStrong Multilateralism Weak MultilateralismWeak Multilateralism

Strong International Strong International Strong AlliancesStrong Alliances

OrganizationOrganization

Stop Lodge!Stop Lodge! Stop Wilson!Stop Wilson!

Page 22: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Kecskemeti: Levels of Rational Kecskemeti: Levels of Rational War Terminations War Terminations

TruceTruce == MinimalMinimal

Balance ofBalance of == MediumMediumPowerPower

LiquidateLiquidate == HighHigh Conflict Conflict

ReorientationReorientation == IdealIdeal

Page 23: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

US Political ContextUS Political ContextWilson’s 1916 CoalitionWilson’s 1916 Coalition

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US Political Context: US Political Context: Balance of Power in CongressBalance of Power in Congress

YearYear SenateSenate HouseHouse

19121912 Democrats: 51Democrats: 51

Republicans: 44Republicans: 44

Democrats: 291Democrats: 291

Republicans: 135Republicans: 135

19141914 Democrats: 56Democrats: 56

Republicans: 40Republicans: 40

Democrats: 230Democrats: 230

Republicans: 196Republicans: 196

19161916 Democrats: 54Democrats: 54

Republicans: 42Republicans: 42

Democrats: 214*Democrats: 214*

Republicans: 215Republicans: 215

19181918 Democrats: 47Democrats: 47

Republicans: 49Republicans: 49

Democrats: 192Democrats: 192

Republicans: 240Republicans: 240

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Geopolitics: 1914Geopolitics: 1914

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Situation: Fall 1918Situation: Fall 1918

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Geopolitics: 1920Geopolitics: 1920

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Dead States / New StatesDead States / New Statesafter World War Iafter World War I

Dead:Dead:

New:

Page 29: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Military Deaths in World War IMilitary Deaths in World War ITotal KilledTotal Killed Total Killed Total Killed Total KilledTotal Killed% of armed% of armed % of % of % of % of

CountryCountry forcesforces men 15-49men 15-49 populationpopulation

ScotlandScotland 26.426.4 10.910.9 3.13.1FranceFrance 16.816.8 13.313.3 3.43.4BritainBritain 11.811.8 6.3 6.3 1.61.6RussiaRussia 11.511.5 4.5 4.5 1.11.1SerbiaSerbia 37.137.1 22.722.7 5.75.7

GermanyGermany 15.415.4 12.512.5 3.03.0TurkeyTurkey 26.826.8 14.814.8 3.73.7

USAUSA 2.7 2.7 0.4 0.4 0.10.1

Ferguson, Pity of War (1999), p. 299

Page 30: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Versailles Treaty, 1919Versailles Treaty, 1919

Create League of NationsCreate League of Nations– Article 10Article 10

Recognize New States: Poland, Yugoslavia, Recognize New States: Poland, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, Austria, Hungary, Baltic Czechoslovakia, Austria, Hungary, Baltic RepublicsRepublicsCreate Mandates in Middle East, Africa, AsiaCreate Mandates in Middle East, Africa, AsiaGerman war guilt (Art 231)German war guilt (Art 231)German war reparationsGerman war reparationsGerman disarmamentGerman disarmamentWar Crimes Trials (Art 228)War Crimes Trials (Art 228)

Page 31: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Congress of Vienna, 1815Congress of Vienna, 1815

Include all GPsInclude all GPs

Stability (not Justice) Stability (not Justice) is Job 1is Job 1

Balance of Power is Balance of Power is route to safetyroute to safety

Stay out of Domestic Stay out of Domestic PoliticsPolitics

Elites run things bestElites run things best

Page 32: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Signing VersaillesSigning Versailles

Page 33: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Versailles Peace Treaty DebateVersailles Peace Treaty Debate

First US President going abroad for First US President going abroad for diplomatic negotiationsdiplomatic negotiations

First proposed League of NationsFirst proposed League of Nations

First proposed treaty requiring US to end First proposed treaty requiring US to end “isolationism”“isolationism”

First time US Senate invoked clotureFirst time US Senate invoked cloture

First time US Senate rejected a peace First time US Senate rejected a peace treatytreaty

Page 34: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Wilson’s 3 Great ReformsWilson’s 3 Great Reformsto World Politicsto World Politics

National Self-Determination & DemocracyNational Self-Determination & Democracy

Collective SecurityCollective Security

International OrganizationInternational Organization

Page 35: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

The Liberal DemocraticThe Liberal DemocraticPeacePeace

• No Two Liberal No Two Liberal Democracies have ever Democracies have ever gone to war against each gone to war against each otherother

• No Liberal Democracy has No Liberal Democracy has suffered faminesuffered famine

• No Liberal Democracy No Liberal Democracy has committed genocide has committed genocide

Page 36: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Humans less violentHumans less violent

WSJ, 9/24/2011

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Page 38: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Fate of DemocracyFate of DemocracyDemocraticDemocratic DemocraticDemocratic

StateState FoundingFounding Regime Regime CollapsesCollapses

ItalyItaly 19251925GermanyGermany 19191919 19331933CzechoslovakiaCzechoslovakia 19181918 1938*1938*PolandPoland 19191919 19261926AustriaAustria 19201920 19331933HungaryHungary 1920*1920* 19321932EstoniaEstonia 19181918 19341934LatviaLatvia 19201920 19341934

Page 39: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Wilson Reform #2:Wilson Reform #2:Collective SecrurityCollective Secrurity

League of Nations in first 26 Articles of League of Nations in first 26 Articles of TreatyTreaty

Collective Security & Article 10Collective Security & Article 10

ControversiesControversies– Shantung PeninsulaShantung Peninsula– Danzig CorridorDanzig Corridor– FiumeFiume– SudetenlandSudetenland

Page 40: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

League of NationsLeague of NationsCollective Security & Art 10Collective Security & Art 10

““The Members of the League undertake The Members of the League undertake to respect and preserve as against to respect and preserve as against external aggression the territorial external aggression the territorial integrity and existing political integrity and existing political independence of all members of the independence of all members of the League. In case of any such aggression League. In case of any such aggression or in case of any threat or danger of or in case of any threat or danger of such aggression the Council shall advise such aggression the Council shall advise upon the means by which this upon the means by which this obligation shall be fulfilled."obligation shall be fulfilled."

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Versailles Controversy: Versailles Controversy: Shantung PeninsulaShantung Peninsula

Germany acquired Germany acquired extensive rights in extensive rights in 18981898

Treaty gave Treaty gave Germany’s area to Germany’s area to JAPAN, not ChinaJAPAN, not China

Page 42: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Contradiction in Contradiction in Self-Determination: Danzig Self-Determination: Danzig

CorridorCorridor

Danzig: 65% Danzig: 65% GermanGerman

Corridor outside Corridor outside Danzig: Germans Danzig: Germans 45%45%

Page 43: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

SudetenlandSudetenland

3 M 3 M GermansGermans

1 M 1 M HungariansHungarians

0.5 M Poles0.5 M Poles

Total Pop: Total Pop: 15 M15 M

Red areas indicate Red areas indicate >> 80% German in 1930 80% German in 1930 censuscensus

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Collective Security: Pro/ConCollective Security: Pro/Con

ProPro– All states have interest in stopping aggressionAll states have interest in stopping aggression– Deter aggressionDeter aggression– US now has vital interests around worldUS now has vital interests around world

ConCon– Great Powers won’t go to war without vital interestGreat Powers won’t go to war without vital interest– CS makes world politics rigid by freezing territorial CS makes world politics rigid by freezing territorial

status quostatus quo– Cannot Define “aggression”Cannot Define “aggression”– Endangers US constitutional systemEndangers US constitutional system

Page 45: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Lodge’s StrategyLodge’s Strategy

Assume 3 camps: Irreconcilable, Reservationist, Pro-Assume 3 camps: Irreconcilable, Reservationist, Pro-LeagueLeagueDeath of a thousand cutsDeath of a thousand cutsQ: Will League have its own military or authority to Q: Will League have its own military or authority to summon military of members?summon military of members?Q: Is Art 10 obligatory? Will the US be obliged to fight Q: Is Art 10 obligatory? Will the US be obliged to fight for ____ and ____ and ____?for ____ and ____ and ____?Q: Does Art 10 supercede authority of Congress to Q: Does Art 10 supercede authority of Congress to declare war?declare war?Q: “What will your League amount to if it does not Q: “What will your League amount to if it does not contain powers that no one dreams of giving it?” contain powers that no one dreams of giving it?” (Senator Borah)(Senator Borah)

Page 46: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Some of Lodge’s 14 Some of Lodge’s 14 ReservationsReservations

US can withdraw from League on moment’s noticeUS can withdraw from League on moment’s notice

US assumes no obligations under Art 10US assumes no obligations under Art 10

US has exclusive authority over its territoryUS has exclusive authority over its territory

US refuses Art 156-58 (Shantung)US refuses Art 156-58 (Shantung)

US will not provide any funds to League without US will not provide any funds to League without Congressional approvalCongressional approval

US reserves the right to increase armaments if threatened, US reserves the right to increase armaments if threatened, even if League has disarmament requirementseven if League has disarmament requirements

Vote on Lodge Amendments: 39 Yes, 55 NoVote on Lodge Amendments: 39 Yes, 55 No

Vote on Versailles Treaty (with no amendments): 38 Yes, 53 Vote on Versailles Treaty (with no amendments): 38 Yes, 53 NoNo

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Enduring Debate about VersaillesEnduring Debate about VersaillesVersailles “Too Hard”Versailles “Too Hard”– Severe peace terms created climate for NazisSevere peace terms created climate for Nazis– Had US joined, GB+France+US could have stopped Had US joined, GB+France+US could have stopped

Hitler Hitler

Versailles “Too Flawed”Versailles “Too Flawed”– Collective Security would not workCollective Security would not work– Treaty contradictions undermined moral confidence in Treaty contradictions undermined moral confidence in

new international ordernew international order– Even if US had joined, appeasement and war still highly Even if US had joined, appeasement and war still highly

likelylikely

Link: Pro-Link: Pro-WilsonWilson

Page 48: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Margaret MacMillanMargaret MacMillan

B 1943, TorontoB 1943, TorontoGreat grand-daughter of David Great grand-daughter of David Lloyd GeorgeLloyd GeorgeD.Phil., OxfordD.Phil., OxfordProfessor of History and Professor of History and interntational relations, University of interntational relations, University of TorontoToronto2007: became Warden, St. 2007: became Warden, St. Anthony’s College, Oxford UAnthony’s College, Oxford U2002: 2002: Paris,1919Paris,19192007: 2007: Nixon & MaoNixon & Mao

Page 49: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

MacMillan’s EvaluationMacMillan’s Evaluation

A Bad Argument: “The final crime of A Bad Argument: “The final crime of World War I was the Treaty of Versailles, World War I was the Treaty of Versailles, whose harsh terms would ensure a whose harsh terms would ensure a second war.” (second war.” (The EconomistThe Economist))– Her view: This excuses actions and inactions Her view: This excuses actions and inactions

of all leaders, 1919-1939of all leaders, 1919-1939

Hitler did not make war because of Hitler did not make war because of Versailles. He found it convenient to claim Versailles. He found it convenient to claim so.so.

Page 50: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Kissinger’s EvaluationKissinger’s Evaluation

Framers of Versailles achieved the Framers of Versailles achieved the opposite of what they intended: a stronger opposite of what they intended: a stronger Germany.Germany.

German grievances were bound to grow German grievances were bound to grow as balance of power inexorably shifted in as balance of power inexorably shifted in Germany’s favor.Germany’s favor.

Locarno Treaties (1925) showed the Locarno Treaties (1925) showed the future.future.

Page 51: Fighting Over How to Build Peace

Locarno Treaty 1925Locarno Treaty 1925

Actually 7 TreatiesActually 7 TreatiesGermany accepted into European order, Germany accepted into European order, admitted to League of Nationsadmitted to League of NationsGermany, Belgium, Britain, France, Italy agree Germany, Belgium, Britain, France, Italy agree form defensive pactform defensive pactFrance re-confirmed defense pacts with Poland France re-confirmed defense pacts with Poland and Czechoslovakiaand CzechoslovakiaGermany pledged to use arbitration for any Germany pledged to use arbitration for any dispute with Poland and Czechoslovakiadispute with Poland and Czechoslovakia

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German LeaderGerman LeaderGustav StresemanGustav Streseman

1878-19291878-1929

Son of Berlin beer distributorSon of Berlin beer distributor

Won Nobel Peace Prize for LocarnoWon Nobel Peace Prize for Locarno

View of Weimar: View of Weimar: VernunftrepublikanerVernunftrepublikaner

Chancellor, Germany, Aug-Nov 1923Chancellor, Germany, Aug-Nov 1923

Foreign Minister, Nov 1923-1929Foreign Minister, Nov 1923-1929

““Fulfillment” Policy (Fulfillment” Policy (à la Nixon to China)à la Nixon to China)

“…gain a free hand to secure peace change of borders in the East and…later incorporation of German territories in the East”

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Kissinger on LocarnoKissinger on Locarno

““The Locarno Pact was greeted with exuberant The Locarno Pact was greeted with exuberant relief as the dawning of a new world order. The relief as the dawning of a new world order. The three foreign ministers – Briand, Chamberlain, three foreign ministers – Briand, Chamberlain, and Stresemann – received the Nobel Peace and Stresemann – received the Nobel Peace Prize. But amid all the jubilation, no one noticed Prize. But amid all the jubilation, no one noticed that the statesmen had sidestepped the real that the statesmen had sidestepped the real issues; Locarno had not so much pacified issues; Locarno had not so much pacified Europe as it had defined the next battlefield.”Europe as it had defined the next battlefield.”– Kissinger, Kissinger, DiplomacyDiplomacy

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Some ConclusionsSome Conclusions

Great War & Versailles Debate show rival Great War & Versailles Debate show rival American traditionsAmerican traditions

Fate of Wilson’s ReformsFate of Wilson’s Reforms