final do livro do tong
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DESCRIPTION
Tong econometriaTRANSCRIPT
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5.0
3.0
28.0
47.0
73.0
83.4
62.9
100.8
84.8
89.9
14.5
0.0
15.6
70.9
64.6
66.6
95.8
139.0
32.3
7.1
9.5
18.6
37.6
35.7
67.8
83.9
112.3
104.5
11.0
0.0
26.0
35.0
40.0
47.7
85.9
81.6
68.1
66.6
34.0
1.4
6.6
47.8
36.7
64.5
77.2
111.2
54.3
35.6
2.7
5.7
26.1
21.2
47.5
69.4
53.9
66.6
16.0
0.0
22.0
11.0
20.0
47.8
61.2
66.5
38.5
60.0
45.0
5.0
4.0
27.5
24.2
54.1
59.1
101.6
59.7
73.0
5.0
3.6
14.2
11.1
30.6
31.5
37.5
68.9
23.0
2.0
11.0
5.0
16.0
30.7
45.1
34.8
22.8
46.9
43.1
12.2
1.8
8.5
10.7
3!1.0
44.0
66.2
63.7
85.1
24.4
1.4
5.6
5.7
16.3
13.9
27.9
38.0
280
APPENDIX Al ANNUAL SUNSPOT NUMBERS (1700-197~)
36.0
11.0
21.0
16.0
5.0
12.2
36.4
30.6
10.2
41.0
47.5
13.9
8.5
13.2
15.0
20.6
47.0
44.7
63.5
76.0
42.0
9.6
16.7
8.7
9.6
4.4
10.2
34.5
58.0
27.0
40.0
34.0
11.0
9.6
20.9
7.0
24.1
21.3
42.2
35.4
16.6
56.9
40.1
6.7
30.5
17.0
52.2
64.0
63.5
47.4
44.3
36.1
33.2
38.0
15.1
15.5
29.0
47.0
78.0
70.0
22.0
10.2
11.4
19.6
82.9
16.0
28.1
45.6
36.3
121.5
61.5
4.3
16.3
11.3
25.4
41.6
53.8
57.1
63.9
79.7
92.6
141.7
47.0
12.6
20.0 10.0
63.0 60.0
122.0 103.0
61.0 111.0
40.0 60.0
32.4 47.6
37.6 69.6
92.5 154.4
132.0 130.9
6.4 4.1
10.1 6.1
41.1 30.1
49.6 64.2
138.3 103.2
96.5 124.7
22.7 54.S
7.3 37.6
12.4 3.4
13.1 6.8
26.2 26.7
62.0 46.5
103.9 80.6
69.0 77.8
114.4 109.6
151.6 136.3
190.2 184.8
93.8 105.9
27.5 92.5
8.0
39.0
73.0
101.0
80.9
54.0
106.1
125.9
118.1
6.8
2.5
23.9
67.0
65.7
96.3
93.8
74.0
6.0
6.3
12.1
43.9
63.6
64.9
68.6
134.7
159.0
;05.5
155.4
-
281
APPENDIX A2
ANNUAL MINK TRAPPINGS (1848-1911 )
37123 34712 29619 21151 24859 25152 42375 50839 61581
61951 76231 63264 44730 31094 49452 43961 61727 60334
51404 58451 73575 74343 27708 31985 39266 44740 60429
72273 79214 79060 84244 62590 35072 36160 45600 47508
52290 110824 76503 64303 83023 40748 35396 29479 42264
58171 50815 51285 70229 76365 70407 41839 45978 47813
57620 66549 54673 55996 60053 39169 21534 17857 21788
33008
APPENDIX A3
ANNUAL MUSKRAT TRAPPINGS (1848-1911 )
224347 179075 175472 194682 292530 493952 512291 345626 258806 302267 313502 254246 177291 206020 335385 357060 509769 418370 320824 412164 618081 404173 232251 443999
704789 767896 671~82 523802 583319 437121 486030 499727
478078 829034 1029296 1069183 1083067 817003 347050 380132
344878 223614 322160 574742 806103 934646 648687 674811
813159 551716 568934 701487 767741 928199 1650214 1488287 924439 1056253 695070 407472 172418 302195 749142 963597
-
-4 ~
1\ -36 -52 -84
24 40 41 63 44 76 91 89 88 38 29 21
-17 -106 -38
2S
282
APPENDIX M*
Hveravellir
81 16 44 I 70 , 0 20 0 8 0 14 19 13 12 22 0 I I 30 0 -2 2 -26 18 -38 2 9
15 -60 92 -50 10 -46 2 -53 4 -73 2S -85 33 -99 2-1lI 1-102 0 -87 0 4 48 19 194 8 9-16 o -41 0 -211 0 -26 2 -33 I -211 I -76 0 -58 38 -64 0 -59 I -53 I -86 1-126 2-153 0 -74
21 -24 67 -7 112 -4S 61 ... 21 3 422 2 125 7 I 8 3 23 3 I 2 1\ 0 -14 12 -6 I 3 o -19 0 1 17 -4 5 -39 18 -12 21 -40 161 -48 6 -78 2 -31 40 -46 40 22 13 10 224 -16 ID -32 3 -65 1 -53 1\ 0 65 -68 70 -69 6 -50 2 -94 2 -94 1-104 0 -84 0 9 0 -70 33-117 3 -90 o -98 16-134 3 -211 19 -12 0 -16 0 -2 3 -26 13 -36 1 -21 0 1 17 1 I 5 I 9 I 10 1 30 1 27 2 0 I -2 1 -3 2 -32 37 -68 1 -68 0 -64 0 -31 0 -5 0 8 18 22 207 30 O:lS 044 143 040 029 018 218 216561618187034 345 158 233 o 42 0 16 I 11 2 16 8 24 0 25 0 17 2 22 2 41 26 31 38 34 18 55 1 22 6 33 561062 0851355 0704447122313813 0-2 913 329 345 659 344
63 44 22 34 44 52 16 62 70 65 22 70 17 61 6 19 136 :IS 22 69 11 62 I 64 26 65 114 67 1614513236102484275846106821167 079n702558486O 061075
29 71 55 64 0 68 0 74 0 67 0 37 2 47 0 34 0 14 19 26 13 25 1 32 I 58 0 n 4 n 80 55 108 44 36 49 1 47 1 44 1 :IS 148 42 54 50 1 52 53 55 2 36 3 34 2 65
21 61 60 43 39 45 2 69 75 48 6 58 0 60 4 26 18 -17 1 -8 0 -8 0 1 0 -I 0 20 1773 163 446 0621242124713437031 23826n 9462'"..064 661 045 54 11 52 9 2 21 7 10 1\3 6 0 53 62 17 65 I 0 -11 96 -24 0 -58 6 17 37 24 540 6 15 -16 162 -2 0 26 I 7 0 23 0 -13 43 -25 2 -49 3 -44 10 -47 0 -54 I -44 I 13 249 14 29 -29 0 -211 22 -29 7 -23 37 -31 4 -5 38 -43 67 -71 2 -75 0 -47 8 -SO 24 -64 5 -85 3-104 2 -93 0 -80 11 -79 4 -78 2 -89 N42 2 -36 0 -I 99 -24 180 2 143 -13 8 -61 41 -57 46-SO
13 -63 0 -70 0 -62 0 -63 0 -54 1-110 1 -85 0 -56 0 -95 2 -37 I -37 0 -32 0 -38 5 11 23 9m~m~84~~~14~ 01426~1I7~ 2~ 8~22~n-65 6
19 -9 0
o 5 29 5 -11 0
87 I 12 1 -79 I 2 7 0 1 47 1 o 48 0 4 56 0
24 22 84 7 67 51 o 78 14 o 62 0
50 64 49 o 26 19
33 42 10 34 -14 I :IS -13 12 2-152 3
19 -42 0 o :IS 19
-49 28 -68 13 -17 6 -7 55 19 13 24 31 19 m 17 58 32 41 33 4 6 1 6 17 -19 24 -14 I 13 0 -45 15 -&\ 9 I 7 -42 92 16 7 -15 0 -15 6 -28 10 -39 18 -56 0-109 0 -64 0 -8 94 -22 0 -5l 12 -99 0 -25 0 -49 B2 -3 137 -33 107 -54 13 -51 66-149 0-127 15-124 10 -95 0 -43 90-144 8-145 16-145 19-112 7 -48 8 -34 32
-lOS 109 -62 18 -16 28 -62 111-1\3 1-147 0-183 0-103 0-108 0 -211 30 -36 67 0 0 -48 43 -27 0 -56 16 -77 10 -107 I -70 0 -I 19 -5 207 -60 2 -27 0 Il 243 13 SO 10 2 10 I 4 103 16 26 -2 0 22 I 17 0 6 I
12 75 -31 60-105 1-134 12-107 0 -13 39 -56 129 -67 I -49 29-m 20-158 0-166 0-158 0 -SO I -80 43 -65 I -70 I -71 0 -15 0 22 0 24 0 32 0 211 0 9 0 22 10 -4 8 -15 8 13 11 26 15 23 I 19 I 15 10
14 2 19 0 17 0 0 0 -16 0 -82 0 -73 I -78 0 -51 I -57 0 -6S 0 -33 0 -8 0 -4 I -I 0 -2 0 -31 30 -39 I -37 2 -34 2 -48 2 -38 2 3 13 17 8 24 161 19 163 0 2 20 0 38 0 29 0 33 26 0 18 0 27 0 29 63 15 I 20 21 -5 24 -14 I -7 2 -8 0 -5 0 24 8 26 0 24 29 15 I 12 24 19 7 2 3 -15 5 -211 12 -17 2 -9 0 26 0 30 17 69 144 6S 21 60 43 39 115 42 2 60 13 67 26 56 29 57 0
45 2 41 90 41 23 48 16 S2 24 15 0 17 I II 16 45 36 54 36 34 I 55 124 41 3 51 2 65 II 9l I 105 0 84 4 93 4 117 89 102 I 84 4 98 2 101 0 75 0 79 0 97 0 lOS I 115 0 110 0 100 0 83 0 64 19 68 3 54 12 lS I 67 0 84 0 64 0 68 III 58 14 45 14 34 220 24 20 40 0 42 8 52 101 53 47 63 0 65 136 &\ 25 as 27 67 3 20 4 18 0 211 0 38 0 53 0 79 0 103 0 103 0 102 34 86 63 72 4 75 93 65 43 71 I 60 9 48 93 43 2 38 5 42 5 :it I 31 7 38 I 13 2 IS I 47 0 75 0 85 0 80 I 66 39 73 2 73 0 87 I 75 17 SO 4 21 2 20 8 22 0 42 0 33 57 24 180 12 120 0 20 -12 0 -3 2 29 I 63 12 69 38 39 130 17 I 46 :IS 61 2 42 I I 64 -42 10 -39 0 -9 0 -35 2 -14 0 -SO 0
-70 0 -73 0-102 I -83 0 -31 0 -46 0 -17 0 15 43 2 51 8 70 -I 41 -6 177 -31 54 -28 0 23 78 41 208 -2 376 -2 II -13 I -39 12 -77 5-115 2 -27 0 13 114 -8 98 -48 20 -91 I -56 I -41 29 -91 0-104 0-158 0
-158 0-153 0-134 1-116 3 -22 7 -24 22-108 21-174 l-lBl 0-163 0 -89 17 -46 3 -67 0 -56 0 -38 0 I I I 56 -25 12 -28 28 -57 6\-155 4-163 0 -54 3 -42 45-\12 9-112 0 -84 46-168 8-147 0 -62 25-\24 39-224 4
-214 0-140 0-130 23-158 0-152 0-166 0 -7\ 0 -48 36 -S! 2 -88 49 -80 3-\23 19-133 5-107 0
* The data in Appendix A4 and Appendix A5 were kindly supplied to the author by the Hydrological Survey of the National Energy Authority of Iceland.
-
283
-94 30 -84 3-33 0-1221-4 7 \ I 29 -13 3:i-32 7 -'ll 14 -41 ~-20 I -35 16 -33 I -39 0-61 0-79 -48 8 -82 2S -21 o -19 3081'-43 68 -6 19 -20 19-34 4 -62 67 -47 16-52 33 -II 30 -36 2-56 0-24 3 -43 -34 0-17 0-46 0-94 o-I'll 0-147 1-143 1-142 0-92 18 -94 6 -47 7-11:1 2-109 0-152 0-128 0-15 -41 36 -35 23 -7 'll -34 19-116 18-13 15 -19 180 -4 18 -7 603 -30 173 -4 55 0 0-54 46 -98 6 -15 9 10
5 29 I I -7 26 12 82 2S 241 13 9 6 2 2 I -8 0-30 0-43 0-47 0-41 B -29 059 0-67 -23 0 14 o -I 43 4 58 -7 34 -34 1-18 o -5 II 16 120 10 51 16 m 2 2S6 -\7 30 -19 40 20 lOB 21 21 100 9 103 -4 105 -13 32 -14 o -5 7 -I 4 8 20 23 9 21 4 20 5 21 o 18 o 25 54 25 4 9 8 o 2S ,; 27 6'll641760 4 5 3 I 19 0 32 o 38 4 35 61 13 o 2S o 19 o 14 0 3 0 0 I o 'll o 55 0421149 36 51 I 52 I 61 96'!i1 1053 I 44 6 56 o 50 o 27 6 46
52 o 47 o 20 4 -9 36 6 o 16 0 24 o 55 I 62 675204939 38 9 59 29 44 14 39 I 12 20 o 31 134 40 29 69 '!iI 68 793 34 194 42 72 33 82 30 49 20 39 30 38 59 62 88 I 131 0139 0124
120 0101 o 63 0301231 o 42 0 39 I 51 2S 63 54 63 12 30 0 74 9 n I 98 20103 '!iI 95 82 134 40 o 69 o 83 o 11:1 o 69 0 11:1 o 81 36 n 2 65 4 56 237'll1'l 2 97 0109 o 97
115 14 90 o J5 o 40 0332161 2 57 5 59 2 72 0891088 6 101 29 94 102 92 30 107 21 93 100 o 74 I 66 I 55 2 60 o 68 0 63 I 63 28 54 15 31 I 16 129151535 6 4 -4 7 12 21 o 50 8 58 13 84 102 63 17 90 19 78 9 59 17 56 54 36 16 19 I 16 I 22 I 36 15 33 3 52 33105 9 4 7 39 8 5 -28 15 -16 2 -12 1 14 1 -II 1 -39 0-56 O-~ 0-34 0-32 2-50 2 -47
-30 1 -I o -2 24 1 0 3 I 3 2 -27 3-23 0-20 0-10 o -6 1 9 o 21 2 2S 1536342 20 161 I 64 14 49 -14 63 -31 1 -12 2 -12 0-12 o 'll 150 -43 259 -16 2 -II 108-B4 10-106 0 6 35 7
-13 19 -II 20 -6 o -1 1 20 0 5 185 -13 70 3 18 -4 45-48 3 -58 7 -26 3 -58 4 -42 2-~ 13 -40 -61 2 -86 2 -87 0-46 0-58 0-46 0-26 0-20 0-18 8-28 7-32 2 -59 35-70 0-18 0-26 16 -35 -42 II -47 2-116 12 -59 1-18 40 -53 3-34 37-105 11-127 2-132 1-142 15 -38 4 -91 18-111 I -72 3 -91
-1'lJ 1-132 I-I'll 4-170 12-184 0-116 0-73 4-98 1-113 0-41 0-59 71 -68 1-24 3-54 81
* Fonnat of data: Typically." (1972) 9 81 16 44 means observations in year 1972: Temperature on 1.1.1972 is O.9C
Precipitation on 1.1.1972 is 8.1mm/day Temperature on 2.1.1972 is 1.6C Precipitation on 2.1.1972 is 4.4mm/day.
Note: 29th February is always allocated the same pOSition and a zero is recorded when the year is not a leap year.
16 I 5
54 0
'!iI 40 0 4 0 0
55 0 0 I
34 0
71 13 5
28 3
-
284
APPENDIX AS
Vatnsdalsa
1610 1920 1450 1100 1360 1250 1050 1010 968 902 880 1158 814 7'..0 792 792 771 710 670 398 516 610 690 690 710 7JO 7JO !i71 490 814 750 710 690 670 670 690 690 670 650 650 670 6YO 710 670 670 670 6YO 534 5J4 m 630 690 792 2100 1420 1160 1010 924 1158 814 792 m 771 750 710 690 690 690 650 m 465 398 516 610 610 814 1360 968 836 924 1158 836 792 902 902 814 792 750 730 690 690 150 610 610 490 610 650 630 6JO 6JO 6JO 610 590 650 630 610 110 814 990 1120 1650 1920
2350 2520 3590 3150 1920 1690 1360 1100 1010 990 1010 1030 1300 2010 2110 3610 3290 2810 3150 3310 3080 2630 2150 1130 1920 1690 1610 1S6O 1800 1970 !nO 1690 1970 1690 1480 1130 1130 1010 1010 990 924 902 916 1010 990 1080 968 921 902 880 880 1158 1158 990 990 1130 990 921 921 902 B36 B11 BJ6 1010
1160 990 990 968 916 902 836 BJ6 1050 10:;0 1010 1010 968 990 1100 1050 946 902 921 990 924 946 880 880 916 916 902 8BO 8'".>8 BJ6 836 B36 1158 BJ6 792 792 192 m 750 750 730 150 771 750 730 130 710 110 710 750 7JO 750 110 7JO 730 m B14 750 771 771 711 771 BI4 902 902 902 924 1158 902 1158 750 B80 916 811 192 750 750 7JO 730 750 750 T.IJ 730 110 710 690 110 730 710 730 711 730 730 710 490 690 670 730 710 710 650 571 610 8:;& 7JO 610 630 610 192 1010 924 771 880 1010 1158 902 836 814 771 710 710 771 750 750 534 534 B5B B36 1158 750 710 590 690 690 750 711 750 730 511 182 148 516 610 710 750 750 m m 710 730 730 814 836 BJ6 814 771 710 690 690 710 670 650 670 710 730 110 690 710 750 710 750 730 710 690 670 670 m 1160 1080 610 5J4 610 750 792 m m 750 150 730 710
6YO 670 670 6JO 902 1650 2150 1560 1690 2300 2010 1150 12"".>0 1160 1100 1080 968 902 1030 1010 990 946 880 1158 BJ6 771 730 730 750 814 BJ6 S36 516 690 m m m m 750 750 750 750 670 6JO 610 m 771 690 670 610 m BJ6 836 811 836 902 946 968 968 0 968 946 924 880 1158 BJ6 BJ6 814 BI1 BI4 B58 1158 814 836 B80 946 990 1160 1450 1730
1920 1840 1450 1220 1080 1158 836 1158 750 710 730 771 814 814 710 750 710 710 730 m 880 990 1420 1880 2520 3150 2200 2410 3920 5010 4620 3520
J080 3150 3150 2520 2150 1130 1210 1330 1300 1250 1160 1190 1300 1300 1250 1160 1160 lOBO 1010 1010 968 946 1030 1160 1390 1390 12"".>0 1190 1220 1300 1330 1300 1210 1190 1330 1250 1190 1160 1050 1010 990 968 968 990 lOBO 1100 1080 lOBO 1010 946 924 902 B80 1158 924 lOBO 1190 1270 1190 1130 1160 1220 1270 1190 1160 1130 1130 1130 1130 1130 1100 1080 1030 1010 990 990 990 990 968 946 924 902 902 880 1158 1158 BI4 814 814 814 BI4 814 814 814 BI4 m 771 750 m 771 m 750 771 792 m 880 990 8'".>8 814 192 792 792 792 836 m 792 792 771 750 730 730 730 730 730 130 7'..0 711 792 750 750 750 750 m 750 730 7JO 7JO 792 730 730 710 710 710 490 690 690 690 690 690 710 110 710 690 690 771 814 836 880 792 771 750 730 836 836 1158 m 792 792 B58 990 192 792 m 771 m 690 630 690 610 610 650 7JO 690 792 880 814 670 710 670 670 lOBO 1360
1130 1158 1158 711 6JO 5lI 192 1130 968 B14 730 690 534 670 670 670 6JO 750 836 836 1158 1158 946 968 880 B14 750 690 690 610 670 670 902 924 1158 711 730 m 192 814 792 711 750 650 771 814 814 902 814 710 650 610 590 511 5S2 5S2 516 482 465 465 465 465
-
285
465 465 465 448 516 552 534 534 482 465 448 431 431 431 414 382 378 378 431 571 650 630 571 571 516 465 414 378 448 448 431 465 431 398 398 378 398 378 398 382 367 367 398 398 382 382 382 414 590 448 398 398 382 367 367 367 465 398 431 0 431 367 431 610 730 750 750 814 1080 1610 1480 1250 990 814 690 610 534 516 499 499 499 499 :lI2 630 730 690 590 571 571 858 3150 3370 1840 1130 1610 3290
45JO 5400 2570 1800 1590 1560 1450 IS90 3590 J750 2940 2750 3010 27'"..0 3080 2940 2200 2010 3590 3670 3290 2200 1800 1590 1520 1480 1300 1270 12'".>0 1100 968 880 792 730 690 730 1030 1100 1130 1190 1250 1360 1220 1080 990 946 880 750 710 771 710 610 534 534 534 552 552 630 670 650 590 571 590 571 552 730 750 710 730 670 690 730 750 1080 1160 858 792 710 670 650 610 590 590 571 552 552 552 590 590 571 552 552 534 534 :lI2 650 650 571 534 516 499 482 482 499 482 482 482 482 482 465 448 448 431 431 414 414 m 448 431 4JI 431 499 571 630 610 610 590 571 552 552 552 552 552 534 534 552 552 552 534 534 :lI2 534 552 5~2 534 534 534 534 571 590 630 690 750 650 610 610 590 610 610 590 650 650 610 590 590 571 590 590 571 499 465 516 534 534 465 499 571 534 534 534 534 499 534 534 534 534 552 534 552 571 650 m 690 650 670 610 590 610 590 571 792 771 710 792 534 516 814 1010 792 730 690 690 690 858 730 690 730 630 516 610 :lI2 499 534 534 534 516 571 552 552 516 482 :lI2 610 590 571 :lI2 516 499 448 482 516 516 516 516 516 482 465 382 414 465 465 431 431 516 516 516 516 516 499 465 516 516 516 516 516 516 516 516 534 534
* Format of data: Typically, "(1972) 1610 1920 means observations in year 1972: Riverflowon 1.1.1972 is 1610 m2/sec./day
Riverflow on 2.1.1972 is 19.20 m3/sec./day
Note: See note of Hveravellir data.
-
286
APPENDIX A6
Jokulsa Eystri
3020 2900 2840 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2730 2730 2730 2620 2520 2670 2670 2670 2670 2670 2520 2570 2620 2620 2620 2620 2S70 2620 2670 28~ 2900 2780 2730 2670 2620 2570 2620 2620 2S70 2:>70 2S70 2S70 2S70 2S70 2570 2'"..20 2520 2520 2460 2520 2S7O 2670 2620 2570 2670 2670 2670 2620 me 2570 2520 2520 2520 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2360 2410 2410 2460 2410 2460 2460 2:>70 2840 3140 3020 2900 2840 2780 2670 2670 2780 2670 2620 2520 2520 2520 2460 2520 2520 2410 2410 2460 2410 2m 2410 2410 2360 2360 2360 2360 2360 2360 2360 2410 2410 2410 2520 2520 2670 3020 4170 5170 4m 4100 3570 3080 2780 2900 2900 28~ 2780 34~ 4700 5910
10100 10300 9000 11300 12100 10m 9480 mo 8300 8160 8020 8160 9000 10300 11\00 10900 10300 9960 9160 6660 5910 5250 5170 S330 S2SO 5250 S830 6430 6780 7880 6660 5570
57~ ~ 6780 6900 7020 ~ 9000 7880 6000 48'"..0 42~ 4170 4020 4540 5090 5410 SOlO 5090 5250 5490 5910 6170 63~ 63~ 6SSO S830 SOlO 6090 6660 7480 7370 7020 6550 6170 6170 6780 6000 6260 6170 6170 6340 6090 6000 S830 5490 5330 6340 6430 7740 8S8O 6780 5740 5410 5250 5170 4620 4320 4100 3960 3700 ~ 3570 3570 ~ l890 S330 S830 5740 SOlO 4540 4100 4100 ~20 3760 4620 4540 4540 3960 mo 4620 mo 5910 S830 4850 5660 5660 4470 5090 SOlO 4470 3890 3640 3440 3440 3440 3440 3440 4170 mo 4400 3830 3960 3700 3760 l890 3640 3760 4400 4100 l890 3960 3890 3700 3S7O 3440 3200 3320 3200 3440 4170 ~ 3380 3260 3200 2900 1570 3890 3320 3200 3S7O 3380 3440 3260 3080 3080 2840 2840 2780 2780 2780 2S70 2200 28~ 3020 2960 2900 2840 2670 2730 2730 2730 2780 2670 2670 2670 2670 2620 2620 2620 2620 2620 2620 2670 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2780 2670 2670 2670 2670 2670 2670 2670 2670 2670 2960 3440 3440 2840 2840 2780 2900 2960 3080 3020 2960 2960 2960 2780
2840 2730 2780 2730 3020 3440 3830 3830 4540 7020 5910 4170 3760 3510 3440 3380 31~ 31~ 3140 3080 3020 2960 2960 2900 2840 2730 2730 2900 2840 2780 2730 2780 2520 2780 2730 2730 2730 2730 2S70 2S70 2S70 2620 2520 2570 ~o 2S70 2670 2670 2S7O 2570 2620 2620 2570 2570 2460 2570 2570 2570 2520 0 2520 2520 2460 2520 2460 2460 2520 2S70 2460 2460 2670 2670 2620 2620 2670 2730 2730 2840 2960 2900 2960 3080 2960 2730 2730 2620 2520 2S70 2520 2360 2460 2460 2410 2410 2410 2410 2410 2410 2410 2410 2520 2460 2620 2780 3200 3830 3640 3570 4470 5B30 6780 6430 6430 6000 6090 5570 4930 4170 3510 3320 3260 3080 3020 2960 2960 2960 2960 3200 3020 2960 2730 2840 2780 2620 2730 2780 4020 6090 5660 4620 4540 4770 5170 S330 5090 5170 5910 5570 5330 5170 5090 3890 3760 3760 3830 4240 mo 4700 4850 4930 mo 4170 l890 3700 3510 34~ ~ 4930 6550 8720 10900 11300 9800 10900 12700 12'"..00
11500 11500 9160 8720 8S8O 7130 7020 6340 6170 6170 6090 6090 6340 6260 6660 7600 9000 11600 11\00 13200 12300 11300 9800 8720 7880 6900 ~ 6170 6260 6260 6430 7600 8440 84~ 84~ 6660 5490 5250 52'"..0 5570 5570 5910 6430 4770 4400 4170 4170 4320 4170 mo 5250 5490 5740 5490 4540 4170 4020 4020 l890 3960 4620 6430 6780 63~ 6170 6SSO 5740 5570 S330 4930 4700 4320 4240 4100 3960 3960 3640 3570 3760 4400 SS70 7020 ~ S330 5090 S2SO 5170 4770 4170 3830 3700 4020 4930 4470 3830 3510 3510 3510 5090 6090 6000 4240 4400 4320 4240 3510 3380 3380 3380 3320 3260 3080 3020 2900 2900 2900 3020 3140 3020 3260 3260 3320 3020 2900 2840 lOBO 3S10 4170 6090 4020 3570 3380 3020 2960 3140 3510 3510 3200 31~ 3020 27BO 2900 2900 2730 2620 2730 2840 2840 2840 2840 2840 2840 2780 2780 2840 2900 2900 2900 2840 2960 3570 2960 2840 2900 2780 27BO 2780 2840 2780 2780 2780 2730 2730 2780 2840 2780 2780 2780 2780 3200 2780 2780 2780 2840 2900 2840 2840 2780 2840 2840
-
287
2840 2840 2840 2780 27.lO 2670 2570 2520 2520 2520 2570 2570 2570 2570 2570 2'"J20 2520 2460 2520 2620 2570 2570 2520 2570 2460 2520 2520 2520 2520 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2410 2410 2410 2l6O 2250 2250 2200 2200 2200 2200 2200 2200 22'"..0 2460 2460 2570 2570 2410 2460 2620 2570 3200 2620 2670 0 2570 2520 2520 2570 2410 2410 2460 27.lO 3200 3200 3080 2960 2960 2900 2780 2670 2670 2620 2'"J20 2520 2520 2460 2520 2l6O 2410 2410 2410 2410 2570 3080 S090 6260 5JJO 4320 5910 8580
11600 12100 7880 5740 5\70 4770 4400 4020 4400 6090 6430 6900 7600 6900 6780 7880 7130 6430 8160 14100 14100 9000 7600 6900 6090 5910 5740 5740 5410 5250 4700 4320 38fO 3510 3260 3380 4320 52SO 7130 7370 9000 9640 9960 11600 9960 9480 11300 7600 7880 8160 6090 4770 4240 4020 3890 4240 5410 5740 7600 7250 7130 7130 6340 5740 4930 4620 4620 5010 14300 13400 8440 7600 6780 6260 :mO 5170 5JJO 6260 8440 \1300 9320 7880 7130 5910 4930 4400 4240 4700 4850 4470 4320 4020 4100 4930 S330 6550 6780 5910 5410 52SO S090 S090 6170 6660 7370 6660 5740 52SO 4:;10 4470 4770 5090 5410 5660 4850 4320 38fO 3760 3830 3830 3760 4020 4470 5570 6090 5910 5570 5490 5010 5JJO 4930 4620 4470 4320 4100 4100 4400 4100 3700 3380 3260 3200 3140 3020 3080 3200 3080 3380 3830 4400 4930 4930 S330 4930 4020 3570 3320 3260 3200 3140 3570 3380 3140 3080 3080 2780 2900 2900 2780 2900 2840 2840 2780 2780 2670 2730 2780 2780 2780 2780 2840 2840 2840 2780 2730 2780 2670 2670 2780 2840 3380 4100 3830 2900 2900 2960 2900 2840 2840 27.lO 3200 2900 2840 2780 2670 2460 2960 3760 3140 2960 2840 2900 3570 5410 2900 2900 3020 2840 2780 2840 2670 2730 2730 2670 2620 2620 2620 2620 2570 2460 2460 2620 2670 2670 2670 2620 2620 2570 2570 2460 2520 2570 2520 2570 2620 2520 2620 2520 2520 2520 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2460 2570
* Same format as that of Vatnsdalsa data.
-
288
APPENDIX "-7 c C IIA IN p~nGP~.'" ---- SE TAR MeDEL -'~l-PURPOSI: -:--THIS P~(Jr.-HEG,~1I-l.C"'K,N:.FF,IFOf,tCE.IT1~ANS"" C .... E
--+---- ~~X~ h~~Jg lE- !;W~l~f-~uJ N~~Alrlt ~~OS~:~lY E.G. (4 F I O'.~5TI----C 1('< AI,AY C N(lIT t.AH(l .... l-U .... rAAT FUI~ '~EA{lING DATA c.G. (IOF6.2) ---.~. - - 1~fL} (~"jY~Tj:"~"i");- yr-Ntf r'u:litTEI-I.--n~l"r;-uT;TBI--;1 (T.l fif GF THE----p~rlGifA ...
C A"f )VPhSSr.:lJ. C lftlFJ"CL.r.F.(I.OlTJ(JN~ I14AY BE SET AS FOLLO'aS :
----f--- ~j~~gg~ic~11~_~i~O"~'~~L~A.~G~E~NU~~~E~.~S~~~H-A~5~1~.O~E~.76~O---------------------C NTH[).:O ( A MUST) C KKARAY(I)=THE LAG K -~- -ift::STllICTj-JSM~g THE: PF-IOGRAfroII C "4U"lrH,H ~F OATA
-
289
APPENDIX AS I F.'4f)","1THIl t I
1':11 3 I'" 1. It:NO
1 ~,~~"~1~~r~~k-;-KKj-- -------------------C~LL F APQEDI )C.N. V .NRC HK .THO ,NlHO .10 '" ,I C )IIATX,C"AT.It) C"LL EF F ( x. I ES. Y ,NEFF. THO .NYMO .1 J) ",.1 eN'" TX .(MATX IN) ------t~ge--------------------------
INPUT L JNF LIST Ht:DfN SUHRouT tHE UEO tN! NULAWG)
C::"" ==:::::: =======:: =- -""====== ....... "",,,:0::= .. -:=:==== ... = =:o:== .. "' ....... t========= ===-= - C======-====-===--=== ==::-=.=:-= .. =====.""=="'''''s==== .. ''' .... :'"'''' ....... ==.== ....... ====,.,
C PUI~Pf.l5E : TO REAO IN N[;LEVANT INFORMATIO,," C It.PUT : NULAR C:cNlLL AHGUMENT FDA NO USE
-+g~!~W~ ; H:~ I~El~E~EJ~l~b""l7olk~~EA~~~~u:SlnS ~gc:~r BLOCK c= == ==== =:: ====:: :== ======-=::-= ===:".::",_=:z==.========",,,,_ .. ===================: c= =;:::::: "':::: == =:= === ==: == ==:: ==== .. =.=-...... "'=="' .. = .... "'z::=+ .. "" ... "' .. =::==:o:======
DIMENSION FO~MI eel 'l')IIoIENSION X( 10001. fHot 4, .kRJRiYlS' .tUfalS;:So I .ltiiOif)( (51 o IMENS ION xc NO I .THIl( NR, .I(KARAY( NR-I , .CNATX (NR .NtO ICMAfX (Nil, CUMJ.4UN /f.I F. ... O IN ... NTH . .). 10 1,102 .NO .N. PORCH", .I'IEFF.I FORCE, 10M.
I t TRAN S. NL !.lEG .KKARA Y , THO x CUMMON /Io4AXIl41N/ ... Io4AX .... MiN O.T" ~/' '/ wRITE(6.5)
1 ~EAC(5.6IFORN IIIR ITE( 6, 7 JFDI-IM IF(FORM(72) .NE,B) GOTO 1
5 FtlRIo4AT{"'1 ~ ~g~::~1 ?O~! ~0"'1 i
4EAC{ S. SO)N O.N THO. 101 .IDO!' ,NLREG .NRCHK.NEFF .IFORCE ,ITRANS "J.( ITEe 6. 51)N C,N1HO. fO 1,102 .NLRE;.G ,NACHK ,tFF ,I FOACE.ITA"NS
. _ ... ~.q ~E~~HD~156PiIliNS PAsSEO INfO THE P~OGftO'7 I' NO NTHO 101 102 NLREG NRCHIC I'IEFF IFORCE ITRANS"/ UI0161
NI-I(G=NTHO.' N_NQ-NRCHK
\~I:::ADe51 lOOIFOHM 100 FORIo4"'T(AO"'11
"'EA.D( 5.FORM ,,"K.RAye J) II=l.NREGI WWI TEI6. 1!:0 i (KKARA '1'( I 1.1=1 .NREG)
ISO FOR' .. UT(/ KKARAY : '/(/' '.1015)) 4FAO( 51100) FORIII
~lii~~{~~~~~ H :: II! I~: :~gt 200 FURIo4 ... 1(/ oAl. (FlLL LENGTH IIITHOUT TRANSFORtUTIO") ./
1 ( .... '. I OF 10. II)) J~lif~~~~ l~~': loLl ~R~E~T'-"=N'---______________ _
.mITt:.(6.2~0)IlJM 2!"0 FUR"'!"T("" 10M", '0151
tiEAOCS.I(lOI FORM !-IEAD( '5. FORM II THO( 1 i.1 I.NTHOI ",1-1 ITFI 6. 3CO Ie THD( I 1,lsl .NTHo) FD~MATI/' THO: './(/' ".tOFIO ')
::'r~g'f ~}g8th1~Mlil~~~f--,.-; "'I"N,----------- -----
.. J.( 1 TEl to .l'!O IA"'A x.AIIIIN 3'50 FOI-IMAT(/' ANA X = I.FIO,2," A"'IN:: "IFIO.2) QEDJRN END
.. IN~UT L I""'F. LIST Q: lot:,n ::iUBRUUT INt:; R !DENT( X.N. THO .NTHO IKKARAY.C THO .101,102,10 ......... IC.
C;, ~" = ! ~ !!!~ :~~~~!:coc=".c;;.-;;. =",.".:-:.-;; ;c.oc.:-:.:-:._;c_ ."="'="'.,," .. ,",."'."'."OC "'.".:-:."" "'."'.:-:.-=- "'."=:-:."".="'_"=::;_"' __ "'.;--c= =,,: =,,: =:: = = = '" =='" =::: =-=-== =-==C:: =:11: ::"' __ "'z",,:== s: =2.="'. C ... _ .. = .... ""=== C:=:= =:: =:: C I-'U'~~USe-: PINPOINT THE ROUGH THRESHOLDS VALUES AND THE DELAY, r INP\lTo x:= DATA C N '" ITS NUMnER C NTHn = NU"IHt-:A OF REoGIDNS C ICICAI-IAY (I) = THE "lAX L ... G FOR 1HI::: I TH AEGt(1N
___ L- 10 h_lJ.V CONSTITUTE THE RANGE Of gEl AX C OUTI"'UT ""A IC="I IN "'IC "/liaNG THE POSSI"tLE SElAR MODELS C V.V( 1)=Io4[AN SUN OF ~aUA~ED FRHORS FDIC THE I TH REGION C CN"TX( I.J!=J TH COt:FFICIENT OF 1HE 1 TH AR NODEL C IOU II" II NlJMdtR OF P"HArt= Tf A5 a: THE I TH AA HOpEI C 1HO=ARRA'I' OF '~EST" 1HREcSHOLo VALUES IN THIS STAGE C (Jf '"'OoEL S~APCHJNG C 10101= 'UEST' OELAY ----'--Ef~l:"'LIS WORKING SPACE FOR STORI hG PQ5SIBI E SETS OF THRES_
C ~nLO VALUE S C SIH]ROUT JNFS C ... LLED : CO"lLF. X.R ... rc C'" = "':= '" =: =-:-: ==== =".: =-:: =:::: ====::=:: .. ";:,,::::::=,,,,::z:: :::==-== =:z:: ""'= .. =========:z::===",= ===::= c"'==:"'''''''''''_:----: -- _ -:--- ==: = __ -=-_-__ ==:===="':-===--:
;?I:.A.I... '4A IC LOGICAL L 1/.TRLE./.L2 r>IMENSIUN IPUS( 71.THON( 5)
g ~~ ~~~{g~--{w,~o~'
-
290
APPENDIX A9 rF,WlAIC.LT.TAIC"'" GOTO 2
MA le=TA leM 10101'" 10 TfiNTHD.Ea.ol Guru r)o " ..1= I.NTHO
4 THDJoI(J)=TI-()(JI 2 CONI (HUE 1 CONTINUE
00 7 J= I.N1HO 7 ThO(J)=THDM{JI
~S~U8N *INPUT LINE LIST FIOt::NT
SU8AOUT IHE F 10ENTI XIN .THO ,NTHD .KKARAY Ie THO ,10 .MAI C.VAV .CMArX.
--r==-_!~~~!!~2==:o:-:=="':::=_"'''''''''z -=''''=,",K .... ,. .. ,",,,.,", .. a a==='':I:",==_==_=====a Cz === ====:::== ==:t:= ======= ___ ........... "".,..= .... -.= .... ""-. ...... _ ..... =". "':c= C PUHPQSE : USED IN TIE SECOND STAGE r7 MOOEL Se"ACHING .. n.e BEST SET C OF THRESHOLD vALUE 5 AND DFLAY PARAI"ETER IS SEARCHED "''''ONG .to
- -r.- -.-- F INa: 'i cHOseN S T Of tlWibAfe 3 uS!"G f HE lit cAltERlbN, C ,"!PUI : X::OAYA C N= LENGT~ OF X ~ JHD"'~~A;lg~tlr,.iilQ~ x?t~sJlrealN~ ... LuEs ARRCgOING TO C NTHO+l="'IUMl:5ER OF REGIONS C ",KARAV( 1 I=MAX LAG FOR THE AR IIOOEL IN THE I TH REGION
--+OO'n.i1)f : 'ZA Ic~C;~Ti I~EktJNG THE pan. RCE SE tAR MabEL C '1A'I( I J=MEAN SUM OF SQUAREO ERRORS FOR THE I TH REGION c: C"'ATXII,JI=J TH CO~FFJCIENT CF THE I TH AR MODEL ~ AE"'A~K : I~OST:hA'e~~Bi:EO~oGa?ta-em:~ECF THE I TH AR MODEL C SU~RDUT INES CALLED: PERREP,RAIC C::=::. '" == = = "'== == =:'" :===== .. === .. """'.:0: ......... :=: .......... ""' ... = .. ..,=====-======= .... :: =;="'= C-== =="'= "'=: - --= =-: -.", =- =---- "'== ==: ...... ===== .... s ....... = ... s ..... "'-:.z:::=="'========= ===
o IMENS ioN IPOS( 7' DINENSIUN IPOSINCl LOGICAL L 1/.TRUE./,LZ/.TRl .1 HEAl. NAIC o '''''ENS ION xi 11 I n.,l j ,KKARAyt l j ,t tHb iii .V19li i .tWAb tiS. i i DIMENSION XI t I.THO' 11 ,KKARAV( IJ .ClHDCI) ,'1A'III) .CfilAIXCNR,l) [)IMENSIDN le"'ATXC!) OIIo4f:NSION THO""4'
-C DIr.lENSION TH014CNR-LI If-INTHO.EQ.O) RETu-tN to:~ ITE(6.100!
IOQ fqSMATl' I FIN!, IPfNTlFICATlON'lI' BEHAVIOUR gF AIC 'IS " I'DELAY , THJ.IESI-IDLO'//" AIC " I DELAY' I' THRESHOLD' j LnDP=IOOO MA IC= I.OE +60
. ,- - . ~~E I d~ 2 ~ L2Z~H ERR 'U"F;-;::LCEiU"P,",''""T, 5"'iT"","KC" "
-
291
APPENDIX AIO c .. =:::: === =="': E E"'::-==:= =::===.: === ... --= .. -==:.2:_:= "'S==== ... "".*""=:= .... 2======: :==:= C PURPUSE : AFTFA SU~TING "NO HOUSHOLDER TAANSFOR ...... TJON .THE
-----f-HaIC HAS ... ~ ~ ~~E ri: Irtt;'~La:1 ~lt: ;agEkEL:v:~luV=:gA"'" I ON OF c THE St:TAR NO DEL ANt) PROVIDES [)iA.GNOSTICS ON THE FITTED NESlOUAl-S C IF L 15 SET .FALSE. C INPUT: X=OATA C N=IfSLENGTH C THO-ARRAY OF T~E SHOLD VALl.E5 C NTHe"l 15 THE NUMBER OF REGIONS C KKAIU.Y( II=NA)I; LAG FOR THE AR NODEL IN !HE I TH REGION C 10_ ca."'y C L : HOULEA'" VAQ.A8LE IF .TRUE. O,,"LY Ale IS RETURNED C IF .FALSE. see ABOVE
-+CJUT!'\IT . ~m!li~51:JS~ @'ii.HI'ttVm", ~2.1 lMEGION C IC"ATX::O:NUICBEA OF PARAMEteRS FDA THE I TH AA 1I00EL C TAIC*""C FOR THE SElAA MOOEb c=== ::&:::== ===== .. =="""" == ==-= .. aa ........ __ ............... _ ......... = ........... = .. "'>= C=======":Z::=C:I:="",",==", ..... ::ac... c ...... c... ........ _ ... _ .. __ :R2:_=.=".
o I"'ENS ION Kk "R"YI I'. THOC 1l .VAV( I) ,C,.ATX 15.1) .ICMATX (l).X (II o 114EHS ION "XI !!00.30.S) SA X( 500 .30) .... CI (301 ,NOBSeS) eddi~UO~ AX(NDI'2 .NI( .NR) ,SAXI NO (2 .Nk' .ACt INK} .NOBS( HRI DATA IAXI.IA)l2.IAXJ(SCO.30.5( flATA IAXI,IA X2. IA)(3.(1 NO(2) .HK.NA(
~~~l ~~T r~~~.:r.Ji~T!r:ll':'iklUiT~~a~N~g~hs ,RdBs, ji!R.IES I IF( IE~.EU.IJ THEN SONE REGION LACKS DATA _ITH WHICH TO ESTIMATE
TI1E MODEL so , ... ICN IS St:T \ERv LARGE ... ND CONTROL IS GIVEN B"'CK T(l THE CALL ING PROGHAIII IF itER.NE.II Gbt(l i TAIC"'=I.OE+60 IFI.,",OT.L 1 WRITElf.ISI
15 FORMATI'I SO"'E REGIONS LACK O"'TA FOR ESTI"ATJON 'I RETUAN
T"'IC~ .FINALLY. IS THE Ale FOR THE PARTICUL"'R "OOEL INITIALLY IT IS SE'"T 0.0
I TA )CH::O Q "'USST-TOTAL NU"'BER OF DAb, FOR ESTt MATI NG tHE SETAA MODEL ""OBST= 0.0 ICNO:::NTHD+I
_ Q(J 2 1= lo lEND __ .0(", K"'AHAV (I) I{ 1=",K+2 1(2=1i.KI.U.XIJ CALL AR""F IT( SA){. JA XI .AC 1.K2.NQb .VA.I "I N .... IC""
~~lEl= ~:g~ ~A leN ~ECOIoiDING AND PRINTING OF PARAIE.TF.:RS AND AELEVA"'T INFORMATION VAY(I)=YA
D~la~~:LT~"~~~+r=-', :~=:-iI'"Z------------------- ------
6; C ...... TX(I.TJ)=ACJ(TJ") tIIF'1/>;;Ni7iO"" "",-----------------------
IF (L) RF.TUllN 'tIIR I IE (6, I co IN(]8 ST. TA ICiIo4 .10 .NTHO ~QR'u!CH;FfECJIvt. Nll OF OBS\iERATlPNC = ',1:"" NQRMALIZEQ Ale - "
IFIO,4/' WITH LlELolV ::: ',15(' NO OF THRESHOLD = ',151 If- (NTHO.EO.O) GtlTO 7
.,1-< ITEe 6. 200) (THOI 11,1 = I,NTHQ 1 zeo I=U8"'Alll' THBfSIJlI P YALUES' '/1' 1,1 OFI O p I
7 CALL NF~(X,N.F~.II::S.THD.NTHO.JQ, lICIoIIATx.CIoOAT>e.NOASI
r~TUIoiN rNO
*' INPUT LINE LIST S01-lT SURIoIUUT INE SUR T( X.N.A X.IA XI .IA X2. KKARAV .THO,NTHO. JO. NOSS. JER. I ES J
C::: =::: '" =:;::: = == === =:::==================:===="':::====:::= ===:====:=:z::"'========= C=== ====-=- _. ==:::-- - -: :=-::-=::= ==="'====-- -==="'= =:=a=:o::=::o:",":=:-=-::-:-=-===-==== C P..,IRPllSE: 'SORT THE DATA FOR .HICH APPROPRIATI:: loR MeDEL APPLIES. C INPUT: l( = DATA C N = 11 5 OU. .. ENSION
-----'--__ AX '" AfIATE STA~TING POSITION
00 2 J= I, J~ND KK::KKA8AV(J 1 IfS-""XO( 'fs,KK I It:!>: It::Stl
-
:iUIoIT X INTO AX'S 00 ~ ,aIES,N
292
APPENDIX All
--c~- ~~~~ AN TO fiRST P I teE FeR NTHO:O IF(NTHD.EO,OI GClT(J5 FIRST ASSIGN TO LAST PIEce
1~:i~T~P+ I 'iEE XI II At.:LONGS TO wHICH PIECE 00 K&I,NTHO
____ IF ()(IIII.(OI lHOIKI) GOla " ICP=K "'11, IT IS FOI..ND GOlO 5 ~ ~g~tl~tl~ .----------------------------
INDICATE 1H!;"; CUkRENT PO~(TJON xii) OCCUPIES .'" THE ICP PIECE ... neSIIC~ )-NDtSSC ICP)+'
~~Z~~~~ fA !SlltP I + I ASSIGN ")(IN06.1) 00 6 IC;: I, KI::;NO
6 :H~~'~~'li~Ju~!II~itts 1 TRIcK TO l'VOID fHE CASE """'0 A,,(NUt1o I. Ie'" 1=1.0 "t:N('l=J( t;N(') +,
____ ~NQ(!,KENO. ICP 1=,.1 I) , CONTINUE
C"Fer( IF FNOUGH DATA TO eSlIJ04A1E THE AR MOOEL IN EACH PIECES IFR::O no 7 J=I.,Ji:..NQ
LNO .'NPUT L I"IF. LIST HUSHltl
SUAI-IOUTINE I1IJSHLO (AHI,N,KolAll) 00002190 ~:= .=, ::'.:'_=:"=":=_':'::"::"':::'-=.=:"" ~ '" =- =:::"'= "':::: .. ='"'="'''' '" ==:z= "'- '" =='" z:::= ="'=::: "'=""= ==lANSFI)P"'EI) ARQ,&,y{ SO IT IS UDP~R TQIANGULAR! C TA.ll:: NUJol~EQ OF" ROW"> OF Mil TN TH~ (A.LLTNG PROGRAM C K= NU"'~FP OF COLU .... NS C N=-NUIoIAEP OF ROWS( NUPIIF1ER OF DATA J C O,)TPUT AP I T """1-1 J 15 THF CHOC;FN AR ... nOF.L C I.E. ''''IN 15 THE NU .... FlER PA.PAIoIETEPS OF THE AR MODEL C AIC"'=TTS CORR~SPONf)ING AIC C VA::"1E,&,N SU~.OF SQU_ARED_EP.ROrlS. _. _____________ _ C o\C1= ':(lNTATNS THF. cnEFFICIENTS OF -THE AR MODEL. C H':'PE AC2 AC3 APE'" WORK INC VF:CTORS C = == = ="'::: '" = == = "" = == '" = === =:::= = = =: :==-== ===:::: =- ==== == ======:=:: == == =:= ==: ",::::::;.:: C "'''''== == :==== =::::-:: ==::: == == "'=== = =-====::: === === =-=:= = = ==:::::: ==== == = == == ==" ====:: =
PE"'L.~ SUPII OTNE"lstnN AHUTAI1.!) OTNE"NSlnN A.Cl(301.A.C21301.AC3130) OP,I"'N
-
293
APPENDIX A12 AleN :: E+60 00 20 I=2.Kl IF (AC3(' I.GE.Ate"-, GOlO 20 '''''IN :0= I-I .alC'" = AC3(, 1
20 CONTINVE IF (I""IN.EO.I) GOTn 200 DO JOr' ""=t"41N.,,04tN ACt".' -= AHl(JOi.Kl)/AH1C"",N) ... ..-1 .. M-l on 11(' 11=1."""". 1=104_1 t SU" = OPLF.:(AHl It,KI) J 1=1..t 1 no 120 J= 1l.M
120 5U'" = 5UM-I)E'lL~(ACl(JI1+nALF(AH1(T.JII "(' 6,CICl)=SU""AHtIJ.tl 100 CONTINUE
I/A =A('2(IMIN+l) RFTURN
200 VA = AC2! 2) "el(l) = AH1(1.Kl)t'AH1(1.1) QFTUPN ENO
.'I'4Pur-L tHE LIST EFF __ ~~~T TNf fFFI STY .NsrV' $1 MV INSI /II" I THO, ,.THO.I 0,
1 104"T1(, C"'AT II: IN I c= ""'".=..; .... =,..= ==== zz = :: "'" :== === .... = ..... ==.===:=== ====== === ~=.::=====: :"'==::::==::.= c== = = = =::::: '" = .. = = =:= = :===== ........ a.a====c== ==. === === =.:= = .. ==:=="' ... === === =,.= ==
~ PUIWOSE : T~L ;;N~R! Ta~!~Alf vg71~t:/29C;~J' ~g ~~gcbA~~ C ~ATTEfms C IN~uT STV=A~RAY OF OA TA _~~___ NS1V=1HE NU,..t-\LR OF STARTING VALUES
C NSI,",V::NUMO!::f.I OF EFF vALUES C THD:Af-IN
Otl6 1=-1."151","\1 _. -_ .. r: ;11!~:=1 ::c.:c-, ""CO,'! "1-:-;1".'1 .1 ~, 0'-'1 _____ _ >-IETUo-lN f..l,D
-~~u~UA~gI/TINfJs~J~,*~~~A~~.~~~~~.TU',~N~S.TU',~S~I""UV,."~S.I~'VC,~TU"["> '~Tu"nn:-;oI~o~,T,C""~"TX~,---------lOoUT)(1
C:: """ "- "':.:.= == :.== = ==:: =="'''''''''':: =:c ==: :::::= :==::: -::;= :"':z:::-== = === ==:It",:o=== ==-=::::::===::=::= c"'::: =::::::.:.::: = ==:::: = =.= =::::::: --=== :== :::::"'= = .. =:: == ==::=-==::: =-===-=::==:::: -:::: ::"'=::f = - = =
C pvl.ip-use-:-ro" Gt:NI:-~TATE A TABLE (ONTAINI,..G OAIA .CNE STEP AHEAD ( PHE])ICTlnN AND AHSOLUTE EHRon :AHSOLUTE ERROR"" C IlATA-PJ.lEllICTIUN. ALSO HOOT MEAN SOUARE OF ERRORS
_-'- aM 5 1 co G'VE N ( STV:AIl'~AY DF DATA C ~STV+I=lHF ST .. RTING POSITION IfIHERE PREDI(TIC,.. IS CAL-( CULA TEO C tlS.lH..V-:::liu"IUEH_JJE peE 0 Ie I (oNS C Tl~Il"'A'n.AY OF THRESHOLD "ALlES C NTHU=NUMr'iEll nF THRESHOLD 'vALlFS C ID=DUAY
__ ... .c..~__ ICH4BI II-NIl Of puaHfTEHC '" THE I TH AR toIenO ( C""ATX( I.J I-J TH COEFFICIENT 0= THE I TH .... R 1o40DEL C OUTJ'uT: S'IoIV(NSTVtl) - SI"'V(NSTv .. NSI"' .... J CONTAINS THE 1 ST STEP C AHEAD PREDICTION c= = = =- = = ::::0.=='=.2..==-== = =-= ====-=: :c-==--=- ::---- =-=::::===,,"'==::==::=--------===::==== C= ==:: ==:::: = =::="'.: =_ - = ____ = = =:c: """ =,. c=- _ -.:::: -::: =:: -r=- =c== -:c--",--r::= __ ===:::::::=
'lEAL'S T.~~RUH.SSf" UII'4ENSION 51\1( 11.51"'V(IJ .THO{I) .IC""ATX'II ,(MA1X'5,1) 1.u~t:.:"'l!iJ!1!:::L5.IYIJI,SJliY(11 THOll! "MArX/I! (tUTXINR.11 IF IN51MV .EO .OJ nETLRN
-
294
APPENDIX A13 wHITElb.lcol
It"O "UM.Arc I ONE STEP AMI!40 PAEOICTi ON "/' " CQMPARI9JN WiTH OAIGINAL DATA '/ 2' bAlttN ..... uXJl 'oiONE AHEID PREO.'.' ISS. EAROR.,)
SSE-O .0 IS-NSTV+I ICHSTV .... SIM" nO il! j. is. II! LUCATE Wt4ICH NUDCi.L THE DAlUM SATISFIES IP. , IFUHHO.EQ.O I GOTO J ITEST-I-IO 00 J_l.NTHQ IFIS'VlllfSl).Cil,Tt-tOl..I)) GOlD .-!h;d j
" CONT T~UE IPaNTHQ+1
3 CUNT INUE h,E LacAl ION PRoUsS F tNt SHED CAL(:ULATION UF ONE AHEAD PREDICTION NPAAM'" I ICIo4A T XI IP II
ll?~m~~,E!rMM 7 5 '_Ot'lLEICM4')(IW.Kll*OBLEtSTV(I_It+I))+T
_.. ___ CALCULATE THE EAROH IN THE PREDICTION ... ERAmhT-ST .... t I i
sse,. SSE ti:.~ROH .ERHOR 5 INVI 11=1
:!66 ;~A~~\t; 2??~ n~~! I i!r!'~~~~i X of 15. 51 2 CUNTINUE
C CALCULATION UF ROllT MEAN SQUARE .- ---. --~~~:~~'~n~~1
wk 1 TEl 6. 300 I SSE JC"J FORMATI ...... RMS" '.FI5.5)
I.!ETUHN '"0
INPUT LINE LIST NFR ~UBIoI.OUT INE NFH.( Sf V .N. SI IIIV. J S.THD .NTMO.I o.
1IOU,U . '''InK .N08S) C=c - .. ::: =="''''''' ..... '" -.a"", .... a ....................................... __ =.",_. C= "'="'''''''''''''::''' :or ......................................................... "' ..... .. C PU~PQSE : TO CALCULATE THE NQAtrALIZt:D FITTEO RESIOUALS
~ INPUT : ST:fRef~ ... dhggA~lAGNg511c C N .. nSLENGTH C IS=ST"'RTING POSITION FROM lIHlCH FITTfO RESIDUALS ARE C CALCULATEQ
c=::::., "'==:: = == .. == """" :::s .... "'''' .... a ". ..... "' ...... .; .. '" ."' ................. "" ....... =;"'., .... ... c= === == =,.== ="'= = == .. =.: ................. _"' ... === : ...... "':&".. ...... "' .............. "'==c"' ... '"
HfAl ." T ANIlH'1( .:::1 IF(NTHO.Eu.OI GOTO .] !TEST:: 1-10 00 J_ 1. MTMO IFeST"( !TESTI.GT.THQC JII GOTO. IP=J c.gto ,
4 CONTI"'UE I"=NIHO+'
J CUNT 'NUl! _~ HfHlAFllffLJ.11l.jJ1 P Ifefax SEC PRQ I b(j IN" NOEl'
''''OE!!;I 11= 11:1 CALCUL"'T!llN (JF FITTlO ~ESIDUALS ",P",Q:""= ICNArXI (P I [-OHI flCHUll Ie I I J If(liPARH.LT,21 ("oOTO, 00 S o(,;o;2.NPAS'" T= OI3l.f!C C"'AIXI lP .I*'l.~~+-~ E~I ~f'i~C"NQ"'.o.L' -----------------
ANOIol.IoC{ I I SlowES l-!u!JT MEA". SQloARI;. CT RF.SII)UAl.S IN I IH REGION DO 27 I:IS,,,. Ip:: INDEX' I' II=i-IS+1 J'IIonN"L Ill: Tt1c. F itT!;;!) ~ESWUALS
l"I SI ... \I{III"'DHLE:(SIN .... tlll""NOIU411~1 N.fll==N=.lS..tl. ____ ._ F'N::NtFO v= I.Q6"'SUIolT(FN) ' .... 1' ree (, .JCO I
_......ll:Jl. mRMAT!'! DIAGNOSTICS QE NOHUllZfO EIUED RES'O!!A" I ... NUR ... ALIH.O FilT~O RESIOUAL 1'/)
-
295
APPENDIX A14 c .. .. .. .. .. _== .. .. __,, .. _ _ ......... . c.-.. -=~---------- .. .. . ~OOSE = lif:~;ii~ THE yAAIAfCE COVAR' "NeE II"TAIX FDA THE C INPUT t SAXsuPPER TRIANGULAR FORM C1F THE OESIGN MATAIX C lAX-Nil. OF COL ... NS " SAx IN tHE CALLING PAQGA""
~ tuluA B~.s68xaE"U'gl\l'N 'N'N BY 'N'N C ACT IDNtTtE SO ESTIMATES AND THE VARIANCE COVARIANCE ""TAlx IS PAINTED C SUBROUT INES CALLEO t SIN V
~:::::::::::::::::=:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::==:::::=:::::::::
00 2 11- 12 IC- le.l
C 2 !2t~8lifEJ(Ll!i~S~R5E (W! fi1E PRwoef fj! sOli tRANSPDsE AND Slk CALL SINV(TA,IMIN.YAI
C lolETA IEYE THE DIAGONAL AND TAKE tHE SQUARE ROOT' THEY ARE C E5I1M"TES OF STANOARD EAROR
I-I tP", I
11 SOMe II_SONY' 'A' IP') I&JtlHf
ARRANGE AND THEN PRINT THE VAAIANCE-COVARIANCE MATRIX L-. IE. I 1s.=1
"'R ITEe 6. 501 I CaNT Ifr\1UE
1118 IIEI6. 1001' TAl J J .J=I S.IE I Lz:L+I lsa IE+I IE" IS+L
50 JoAJttc5;:S IvfBT~NlE-COVARI.ui;E "URU :'1 tOO FOR""All' ',lec ',FB "
~ETU~"" ENp 'iUaqOUTINE SINV,A_N.VA'
C=-=:::: ==::= =.", .. ::",== = ...... "' ................. ""=== ....... "" ................. "' ,. .. "" .... =,."' .. :: c.::: ""===:z "'''': .. ,. = =...:I!:=" = ............. '" ........... "'''' .. '''' ... '''.''' ... = ........ ''''-===='''' .. ,.=== .. ==
~ ~~~~?Sf i"'t~EP~~J8EJ7iNC~eiglLiIj~ x ngtJ~rThRaa 8S.~;T:ANp VA C N=OI""ENSION OF THE 'TRIANGULAR MATAI X SO N.IN+II= C LENGTH OF ... C yA="'fAN 511'" gf SQUARE ERROR C OUTPUT: A=THE DESIRED PRODUCT AS DESCRIBFD IN THE PURPOSE
C=====:.==:===::======= .. 'Z:z_ .. .... ="'"' .... "' ___ '""z,...,. ............ . C=.z:: = = :::= =::::c:: '" == ..... ==::.=====""'._-...::==== == ........................... aa ... ""=== .. =
gU1ENSlON AI II REAL_A DIN, 'IIQRK IPIV=N*CN+l)'2 tND= IP tv 00 6 I .. ) N DIN=l.DO,OBLE(A(IPlvii .. ( IP IV 1=0 IN "'IN.N K[NQ=I_I LANF=N-KENO IF (I(ENO)5. '5,2
2 J= INO DO IS .. I,KENQ IIORIS:IIO.OO tot IN=IoIIIN-1 L M)R:: IP IV I yfR=J 00 J L=LANF."'IN L VF.R=L VE~ + 1 L Kl~=LHO~ It..
1 WORK'" WORk tDBI F ( .u I \/ER I fA II HQRI ) AI J I"'-'IIORIS*O IN
4. J=J-'" IN 5 I'" IV:. IP IV-/101 IN b TNQ- INQ_'
DO.oj l.l.N IP IV= IP IVt I J= IP IV
_DO e K= I.N ~O~I(.O.OO Lt-IOQ=J DO 1 L:;:tK.N I yER=1 I-(1R ttS- I "'ORK:o:'IIOIol:K tOBLEI"'(UtO~ I .... 'L VEAl)
7 L HO"'zLHO~ +L AI J I=WORK*Ot3LEI VA)
____ .-a~~~~~",-----------------------t:NO
* INPUt L tNE LIST OESACF 1 S!!RROIlIINE QESACE'''' 0114 VI! 'F 'MEIN SID!
C -",:====-=:=:= ::==--=--==::=="'===.:== ... = .. ""'''''.=.--.... ,. ... ''''''' ..... '''' .......... _'''.''''''''" C: == = == = === :==s === ====::"'===,.= ::_ ............ = ."''''' ............... ., ... ,. ...... ==."''''. C
---" C C C c c c
THIS SUHRUUTJNE GIVES THE lEAN. V ... RIANCE 10lVIOE BY N). STANDA.kO DEVIATION. MAXIMUM. MtNIMUM.AND RANGE OF THE DATA. AUTOCOVAR I"NCE FUNCTION AND AI..YOCORHELAnOfl. FUNCTICN ARE ALSO CII (I" uEo CQRRE!OC.a'M '5 PIOTTEP ",'rH CPtEIPENCE !'UtS 'NP TI-E NU""BE~ OF LAGS"" NUMBER CF DATA'
C VAld .. dLE N""'ES: _-'----1:i... NtlMBFR OF pAU
C DATA: INPUT DATA C VALUE: IS AETWF.EN 0 "'ND t. IT OETER"INES THE CONFIOE"'CE LIMITS. C IN THE CORAELOGRA.'"
--7-------------------------
-
296
APPENDIX A15 C==================:===:s"""" ..... z."'lO=a""==z""' .. a= ............. a _. __ .... == ...... .. C= .. =========.====== .. ""=== ... ". ........... _ "'&& ... "'-=_ __ ........... c= .... .
~e::!~ I~A~~a~:S~!N~l~(;Z' REAL DATA (1 SPD'FI300) ,ACQYFC300J .ACOAF C 300. 't-I'EGER P,CA VAL ,P"CF. C ~).!'E~~ I~ 'V28tf~'r,:~P:H;('fl&jSQIA .. u .OME"" ,81 .8B. AKURT
OM"'N: ,0 VAH= ,0 SIC. Ell'" .0 "KURT", ,0 on I 1= l,N
1 OMEAN=DATA( I,.ONEAN QME'AN=OMEAN/N 00 2 I-"N Tl=OATo\{ I '-DMEAN 12=1,*11 yAB=yAR+T? 13=12*11 SKEW:o:SI(EW+T3 1"'-'3*11
Z. IU(UR:T=AKUHJ+T", VAW"'VAR/N ST():I:DSOAT (VAS I SKEW_ SK.Ew"", N .STO.YO\S) AKUHT=AKURT .IIN.V"8 .YAR )-3, AMEAN"'OMEAN "III O\X .. O",04 , 1) AM 11'11:0:0.4.10\' 1 ) o 1 1= 1 N
A X 11 IF ( OATA(.) .LT. A""NI ,,"'IN..o"""(1
RANGE=AMAX-AMIN N4=N.l4 N4=1o! INO(N
-
297
APPENDIX A16 FI-IEOIII=O on 10 J: 1.2 t
~~~~!'5fj I:, ~!:~t ~ lifa?51.SfO+OIEAN
J I=,J + I IF (O ... 'AIJJ.Gr.CBOUNDC.J) .... N>.tOATAU).LE.CBQUNO(Jl})) GO TO 80 GO TO 11
eo FAEQ(J ):FREDIJ I t1 GO TO 72
71 CONT INUE 72 fNl~~~;1.20
W~ HEI b, q~ICL"BEL{ II FORMA II 20 x, 1'. IO( "---------+ ') /2 0)[. 'I '/14X.FS.2. ,,) DO 103 1=1020 1.1'"' I. 1 IF (lRELFOI II .EO. OJ GO TO 106
.... 14: IRELFO (1 I IIH ;~~~nr~J~:! i\;i~~!tl ,J"'I ,~MI
W'RITE(6, 102) CLAFJEL( {.I) 102 FORMATe 14X,F!:.2. 1'1
GO TO 103 lOb WI-IITEt6.IOe) CLABeLC 1 . .11 106 FOR",AT{20X. '1'/)4X.F5.2,' I., 10J CONTINUE
WB ITEf tit 9'"
I-It:TUR~ END
INPUT t ':,jE b 1ST "'HEMl SUB~nUT1NE .... HEADC ... )(.J.N.V.BN *'
c=:=::: = ':::::;"'::: == = == === === ===:= === === :=::::====: '" ::====="'% "'=====::::==="'=::::= ===='" C"'::: =::: =:::::::::::::::::: ==:: "'-== =.::..:::::: ===::= === = = ======= '" :::::= ==" "':= =:0: ,,===.:::==== ==== =====
_+ ~~~~~St!RJ~yj.>~~Yh~;AE( xc nIxe H,J) -xl y ________ _ C J"'L"'G r: N::LENGTH UF ... ~ B~I~'~~ u~f 1~~~NF1E~~~gu Ib~Hlool~2gugl9ASf~~tlbN~ C OUTPUT: Y= THE NON-P ... HAJOIETRIC V4.LOC C HEMJI,QK:
_-...L.... _____ ._......B..E..~ CANT BE ( ... '{bI"'JED C RETu.;tNI : NOH"'''L J.fETI..RN.
C SUbf.(OUT1NES C"'LLEO : KERNEL c= ='" = "':::: '" '" =: =::= =: = == = ==== = == = '"'===: ====== "'=-== ==-.: ::0::= :::c:::"'=-========= ====: c=,,:::: = _ =,,===_ =- =-=--- -,,==-===="'" =-=------ =-==----=======-==-===_ ======-"'_
17
CI]MENSlON "'(1) 15= 1 IE=N-J ~O.L.W TUDJ'--L' L' __ _ IE=N osu"'=o.o Y-O 0 1)021=IS.IE w=x- .... C I+J I w=W/AN (AL! KERNfLCI!.,O) Q:O/AN OSlJIoI'" OSlJoI +0
? \I=\I+O*A( I I rf(OS!JM EO 0 01 RETIIRN
V I//OSU'" I-IETUSN 1 END SlIHROllIlNF KERNn f Z y)
------------ --
c-=====-: -___ "'="'-"'-=="':"'= :"'-=======: __ ==== ,,=-- ===---:z::=-======-C= == = =:: =='" = '" == = =" = ==:: :===: "'==,., === c===:==:=:== .. .:::==="",:",==:: .. ==.:::::=",===:== C PuRi->OSf TO GENEtUTE THE V .... LUE V CF THE lIHAtoGULAR O[STRIBUT ION GIVEN Z ( IHIS SIII1RCtllIrNE CORREspONDS TO THE TRIANG!!IAR .'NDOW C [",OTU : l C I1UTPuT : Y c=== = =::=== == "''''' = === === ======::::::=::::::==:=====:=:",:1::==="''''''''::====%:1:'''",,,,:::::======
__ C=.::.:;==.==-==== ==----=-- -"'- -=-=--=====-"'=-=--"'=-=--=- --==:=---= -V- 0,0
TI-'E FOLLOII"lNG LINES CAN BE 1..5:0 '0 PRIDUCE THE SCUARE WINDOW IFI7.I.>E.l,/2 0R.Z.LE.-l./2.J RETURN rfp GE I of.! Z I[ -I I HfTltRN v- 1 ARSCZ I V= J,
I~FTUH'" .t.::..ht.0 ____ ._ SUtiROUIINE NPRFGIA .N.B,)(9.5.p)
c= =:=" 0;
-
298
APPENDIX Al7 CAN'T BE CALCULATED 10 BE SA~PLE IllEAN MOREOVER.THE CO~RESPONOING ABSCISSA -1.E60 THE POINT IN TROUBLE WILL BE LEF I bLANK 1 N THE
C L tHE" PLOT C::::==-="":==:==="""""''"''"'''''.''''=:''''= .......... .,'''.====='''''' ...... :o:: _=z="" :o::."'="""'="''''''''"' C"':====== .. =="' ... _.:a.e ..... ."."' ...... _ .... ___ .. _ ... =,.. aa = ..... "'_,...=.a= .. ""==",,,,. g:=~~~lg= ~lW. 2110xxizu INTEGER P O,,'A N ITER/5/ FN=N
-------c-- SET THE VALUE' OF DN TO PROOCCE DislRieuTlONS TENbi ..
-
c
c c
299
APPENDIX Al8 PheVENTS THE DATUM FROM PALLING BEYOND tHE EXTREMES IFC"IP,GT,I.ol AIP=1.0 ~:f;J: Ibl"AI'pa!~;fDa IPtA!P*LFATl+1 , ... CASE SEVERAL LINES ARE PLOTtED 51 MULTANEOUSLY I TO CHECK It?J[d~i,r,~Nl~a~,'l 8\STI COINClpE THE POINT IS NOT OCCUPIED BE'DRE SO "LETERt." IS ASSIGNED TO THE POSITION
~OI!P '_",-ElER ,I' CRASl'ltNG T'IO OR MOAE POI NT!
6 PLOT( IP )=CO
-
300
APPEND IX A19 T;?=Y( II wIlRK.z,oOBL E( T II_DBLEI TZJ WORK I::WQRK1+!!lIRK2 V=.ORK I QETURN END SUBRQUIIHE L INMYI )I. yiN I
c=",==_=::=:s=_,.: __ ""==:== ...... =< ...... =:, .... =="'=-=."'_ ....... "' .. ., ... = ..... ======-= C======::.c::="'== .. ..: ... =:a=."""' .& ... = ... "'''',.. .......... '''.''' = ... _ ....... '''======= ..... z====a C ~HPOSE: V FHO,,", X WHERE V IS TO BE USED IN CALCULATrNG ~ y~ !~Bl"JJ8i'' ( NTH OF (SUM OF X SQUAREDI -C (N-I) TH OF I SQUARE OF SUM OF X)>> C J"IPuT: X:: ARRA.Y OF DATA
-+OJTPUT: ~ ~ ~f~G~~EQ~ikcSSION "BoYE. e:::=:: == == === .,"'= ",,:e.==t===::= ="' ....... .:z .... ==az .. ="'=== '"'=="' .... = .. ::: ="""' ... =====:: ==== C::== = === ====== = ==:: ""='" =--==::..:::::: ========== "'====""===-=""=:="'''''=::=='''=='''===
g1rcN~lg7 X;'!!N I CALL Ml.LTIX.X.N.R) V=~-6)(.ax/(N-llN"N ~~~~N IF(V.L T.O.O I 15=-1 y: IS*Y IFcy.EO.O.Q) COTO I v"" '1 0. JJ~3JJ V= IS.V QETURN '1=0 0 HETUti.,. END
.INPUT LINE LIST COMLEX SUElROUTINE COIollLFX(K.IR.N.L, )
c=_",====",==::-::--::=-::-::=::==-===::= ::-::.=""", --::"''''== "'======-::::===::-::::===- __ = c=::: "':=:::: = ==== = =="'=:"'==""=':== ==::=== ==:z:==::= ::::= == "''''='''======'''=='''========= C PURPOSe::: COMBINATIONS OF llot OOJECTS TAKE'" fRail 1.2 .... N. 'JNPUT- IB c " C L = LUGICAL VARIABLE; SHOULD BE SET ,TRUE. IF K IS C 10 C.Uf'jTAIN ( 2 IR) WHEN CO"LEX IS Flf~ETU~N 1 __ L-'Ul'UJ.tf~_
00 3 1="1. JR 11= IR +1- [ If" (K(III.GE.N) GOTO 3 KI I q=K fI II tI JS- II + I IF (JS.GT.IR) RETURN 1 ou
-
301
APPENDIX A20 0- ---... - ....... - - -.- -----
DIMENSION XC iI,Yl" i .1&4"2.3 .... 71 eI'RA"' 2 DO 21 I-I,N
21 YI I'-SORT'.I II' j MT.fP' I.N
31 'II U_ALDG ID'X' I J) AETURN
"t e'l.,JJijA,1. III RETURN
5 DO 51 ._"N !II nfdi~"'IX' II! 6 DO 61 .-I,N
'_XIII 6! Wdian
7 DO 71 ._&.N 71 YCI'-2,-(saATC_Cl'+I.I-J.'
ef'RN ,,,,PUT L tHE LIST NONPL T
SUBROUTINE NOAPLTIX.N. t::::::::::::::::::::::::::::,.::::==::::::::======:::::: C PUAPO SE I 10 GIVE THE. NOR .. L PRCIIABLI 1'1 PLOT OP' X C ASSUMPTIONN I X IS STANDARDIZED 1I1TH MEAN" 0.0.
~ '~BO'Qi",JJBA"" DF pi fA
C IF THE OAT. AAI! FRON NORMU 0.1.' tHE'" A STRAIGHT LIN!! C 15 SHOWN
~.= ... :!JJ!I.!:L:k2!1!S.n'U!Stk.L!IB.LI!.1:!!1.~Sl!iitl!~I11_ c ,., .... ._. ____ _._._. _._ _._
o I"ENSION Xl J) ~S:'EG~.:~lltl .... -3 -2 _1 0 1 2 3 4.( a. E"R PX 00 I I-I. el
1 S:.":YTiAL "ACUES Td ALt.iN iNS NitAb SCREEN WHICH VALUES EXCEED THE EXTRE .... (F(TEMP .GT.3.) TEMP_3. d5P':aIt~iINlli"ifs"dIN IN P' !POSaI TENP.J.),e 60. IP05-IP05.1 p Ipgs._p .. Ipps.u
2 CONT INUE
WJO. ITEe 6, 50 I '50 FORM"H" NORM"L PRoa .. tI'LiTY PLOT''''
60 'MJ3~~t.?Q!lP.'~'I'.:~i!r'~j WR 1TE'16. 100'
100 FOR .... T'IIX. .se' '1,' .' If'u . ,.82.' II
300 FORMATe IIX.' .' ,a2x. 't IIIX,' ',81' +' ' 'I 15.1 00 5 I_hf'
C lTEST IS 0 "DR THOSE LINES IIttICH HAVE ,+, SIGNS ITEsT.' I-U'Ue-I I-II ITEMP"px'll ITfl!lfl.O fM T.,lSf EMpty BI H$ IFllTEMP.E'a .0' GaTO a ASSIGN THE' RANKS IE.15+ITE"-1 ~!E~'.:oJJe:(Jn::7U Js.J5.1 JEa-(R1E 'a a. JE_JE+.
R 1:nUsTtNE.OJ GOTO 6 C"LL PAPLIJSIJs.JE.ITE GOTD 5
6 eN' psoorc '$eJE,IIEMP' 5 CONTINUE
WR !TEe 6, 300 J WETURN END , SUBROUTINE PRPLUS(.I5.Jt:. ITEST I C= .. :: .. = .. "" ..... cc ..... ==.: ........... "'z .... ==.""=_= .. "'=-s= .. :e:.="' .... ""'=-.c ... == ........... ""' ... ==. .. ~.==.==:~~~;~:G=;~iRO~T~~'"':d:=~OR:~; ........ ==== ... ====OUI: .......... c ...... :=".= .. . C IF ITEsT=O NO ST .. N IS PRINTeD C IF ITEST.HE.O STARS .. AE PRINTE.D FRC~ .IS CULUMN TU .IE CDLIJMN .C __ ._ . b.I~ 1IollH ' SIGN AND FINISHED !IIH "NilTMER ,+, C .... = ... "'za: ... =". = .. =.==a: ... ""=a:. .. a=5a:=== ...... z ...... =..==.=== ............. =.===.",.==8 C .. =:o: .... =..."". .. ==,.,"' .. ======".======c.c"" ===:= ...... =-= = ............. "" ..
DIMENSION PLOI'"'' __ -.----Y:[Os!'i~~~2{,8b .. NI(ll. '{,5TAR'l'.',
IFe IPLUS,GE.'" IPLUS=l
DO 2 ,_JS .JE 2 PbOTIII=ST"Rl
Ii'R ITE(6 00 J V"LUE. {PLOT (I' .1- 4., , J grO~dj~~L~~ki -------------------
..,eTURN I HIE(t..ZOO, VALUE. --~~:H: ::;::I:::: !::1l~!~ellTt;6t'---'+c:.LI----_ ------
R:.IUW:N END
-
302
APPENDIX A21 END SueilOUTINE PADOTCJS .le.llEST) ~:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::."::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
c-...... = __ ._-_ -- _ _ ....... _-- _ C .. .. ...... _-_ __ __ _ ... _-_--__ gl;iN~~:K~';T. ~! lUR i)'.') tFIITEST,EO.O) GOTO 1 1,)0 Z 1-.. 5.JE
2 ::Ii~wtmHploTlII.I.I . 1i DO 3 .-JS.JE
:5 PLOT ( I ).8LANK I i :ilW761 200 I
100 FORNATI" ',lOX,' .'.41(1 AI),T96.' .'1 200 FORNA,e' ',lOX,' .'.T96,~ It)
BfTURN END SUBROUTINE NOAPEA(TO,XQ.
ca .... "',.. ...... ,. .... : ".."" ......... - _ ........ -._ :0: .......... . R= ... === ............. = ...... _ _ ............. :11: - __ _ ...... . C PURPQSF:TO PROVIDE THE TO TH PERCENTI LE tF THE NaRiIIA' blsfRiBiJf ION C INPUT: TO C OUTPUT: xu- THE 'lO TH PERCENTILE
~ MEII-QO: f5~HbaG~ Mh1~a7QXI NAIl 0"'5 FOR DIGIT IAL COMPUTERS C.:=a====-=:a"'====="'== .. =-="' a ... a.aaa ..... = .. a aa ....... ___ a ......... =:a .... ::"". C ... ::.:="' ... :a=== .. =-=,.--= .. a= ........ _ ... _ .......... a .... a ............... _ ..... : a
DATA AO.AIr8t.B2t2 ]07!$], 27061 .. '3'3229 .. 04.0)( Oal,-TO 100 IEla,GT S) Q]TO 1
2 ~l':1 s&9 Tt ...... 0 Gi a "0 I Ii XO.ETA- (AO+" t.ETA 1( 1.+B .*ETA.8Z.ETA*ETA) 1Ft 10 .EO.O) GOTD 3 X9=_xg GOTO 3
I Os; 1.-0 10=1 ("..gIg?
.:I IF' JCO .GT. 011. j JCO=o1I. tF(XO,LT.-o1I,J XQ=-4.
RETURN ENp
* INPUT LINE L 1ST C .... CLEN SUSROUTIP-iE CVCLENI JC,NI
ez, .. ="": .... "'::::= .. === ..... ::=--== .. =a .... ,.._ ... aa=== .... =="'=a"' ... ,.. __ .."."'''' ..... == ...... ... C: .. ==-===-.. ==="".,.-,::""==-== ...... "'.ac":= .... = .. =z .. ,.= .. =""==a'l::&= ___ -= ....... =., .... ="" C PURPOSE: to FiNO hOt AND REPORt mE UP- JilFi)- OdiN pJilffERN OF tHE C DATA C INPUT C X=ARBAY Hf pAIA, C N:tTSLENGTH
C .. ===c::===:===:===:==========""===== .. = .. ==== .. === ....... ""= .... '""""'=="".:a"'."""'''C C=====:======.::="'::::======:=::="'z:"'==::e ... = .. =="'''''''''''= ..... a:'ll:: ... ====",,,,,====.c=,,,,==== plMENSION X(ll INTEGER* 4 C 'l'CLE,LFLAG .CFLAG .NCVCLE DIMENSION C .... a.E( '5001 OIIOlENSION CVCLECNO/2) IEIN If Jl REIl.lAN lCOUNT:O NCVCLE:: 1 A=X(21 a-X( I I RECORQ THE INI TIAL ORDER BETIlEEN X(li Afrd> JC.(21 CALL ISNIA.a,LFLAG' 00 1 1= 3.~ NCyt! E=NCyCI ft I .... XII J 8=X(I-1) CALL ISNI A. a ,CFLAG) IrICe 4G.fO I FI 461 GnTO I FORMER ORDEM IS NOT PAESER~D NCYCLE:NCYCLE-I ICOUNT= ICOUNT+l cyCLE! ICOlIU l=NCVCbE ICOUNT= lCOVNT'1 C .... CLE( (COUNT )=LFL ... G LFLAG=CA.. ... G Ncyel E: I
1 CaNT INVE H ... P-iDLE THE CASE .. HEN OATA ARE E)OoIAU5TED 'COUNT: ICOUNT.1 eYa f' JCOlIU l::NeyCl E ICOUNT= ICOUN T'. CYCLEt (COlIn ):LFLAG PR tNTING Of INFORMATION
:: n~~ t ~gg t IC VCLE( I j .lcl, tCOUNT) 100 FORMAT(' 1 SVMMARY OF I..P ANO OO_N PATTERN t
1/" IN THE FORM.: N*I,O OR -'"/ 2' MEANING' I::INCBEASING,Q:;;EQU4IITy,_I,.pECREASJNG,b. LENGTH'.
200 FUMMATI5(' 1.:1.' 13,2)(1) RETUJolN END SURRo!!I IN f I S)lfA e I VAl 'E) TI-'15 fUNCTION R:ETLRN5 THE SIGN CF A-B O=A-6 IVALUE"'O
.IE CD fQ oJ HEtlBN IVALUE:c-1 Ife D.L T ,0' HF.TURN }VALUE'" 1 REt!!RN END
-
303
APPENDIX Bl
------0 INFNS 10"1 S I~U' 11000 j .1 X( I.oooi ,e MA u:i5 .301 .1 eNATX (51 o lNF.NS 10:"1 5 I GIll A, ( 51 ,VALl.E12l) .FORlo4(80~ .THO (4' DATA a.l' '/ ----.!:.?_=.-=':'=:.~~_:s""'-"'==c= &."'.-.. :::I .... --- "'.--- - ........... """,. c==============="'-===- _ _ ""_ ........ --_ _ ".
C DATE OF LATEST REVISION", 3/5.11983 C PU~POSE : Ttl SIMULATE POINTS FROM SETAH MODEL AND PRESENT
----f- - ~g~:pf~:JJ'JI\A~~~I~.H'p~Yirt;E 'ali-T~'BufJDN OF c (x(T-LI.x(T'I,t,. 2.3 NLPREG C INPUT PAOCEDI.AE :
_. _~_. _. __ \S!o~~:~A"NA"TIJ'IllQ"'N..JQ;Uf"- ~s.!JyMB!!!.l:Qtl.L.Ji.S_~ ______________ _ C NSTY_NU"-BER OF INITIAL VALI"ES FOR SI MULATtON C NTHOa""D. OF T~ESHOLDS fLESS THAN 6'
~ mnx:~~ T\\g 9J~IM~Metr~l ... bgolael ~U"~B"Mf.!3fd C THE LAST FEW POINTS AS IHITIAL VALUES TO C SIMULATE FURTHER POINTS FRON niE SETAA MODEL
--f- ~VEM2:~gll~; .kB~l~TiJ:.c t~~TI ru~g-rtA~iT:L5R~:?~iS IgN C ~ANKSO TO NACJojIFY THE DIAGAAN a: BIVARIATE OISTRIBUTION C OF XCT) AND )({T-II ; NOAN,U .. LY 3.08 4.15 O.K.-, REOU .. , NEANS THA! ONE $Q IS "SEQ TQ SCA'F QATA INTO _UN'TS' C THE LAAGER AEOU IS THE NOM MAGNIFICATION C ICNATX( II" NO OF PARAtIE TeAS IN THE I TH PIEce C CIoUTX( 10.1 1= .1 TH COEFFICIENT IN TH! I TH PIECE - ~~2A!l~f"J~AJO'!~51~ell~~&'1. IFTHE -.HITt NOISE OF THE I TH C D IEce c 5 INX( II - SIMX(NSTVI INI TlALLY CONTAI NS THE START ING VALUES , VA' Uf""QRKING wen.s fOB SIORING yAbUE"S USEP IN RANK$P c .................. + ++ ++ .. +++++ +++++ .. +++++++++++++ .. +.+++++++++++ + C (8) INPUT P~OCEo~e 1 C Tt-oe FIRST C ... RO CONTAINS THE TITLE OF THE JOB. C_ l.t_!iI;CESSA~CJltt.TlNUlTlON q= Tr1E TITlE 'AN C Bt:: AIT""NLD t\Y LEAVI,..G THE 72 TH COLUMN NON-8LANK. C THEREFORE. .... BLANK 72 TH COLUNN INDICATES THAI THE C CURRE'U L I,..e IS THE L"'ST ONE a: T!-IE TITLE.
---+--- ~e''T~r~~3~~Sl'sV(lll ~~~t~~y\JR~tAgr t :?~l E:r;TT~A~CI~J~? C NEOXT CARD ICMATX (Ft)R.lU.T IS (101511 C FUR"''' T FOf.l ~ t::AllING CM", T X HE RE EACH COLU MN OF C"'ATX IS READ C 5TART.J~G .. IJ~ _~._'it_}l: __ '~~ YOU HAY;: TO SUPPLy THE FORMAT FOR C I.!EAOI'lG E.a.CH COLUMN. THIS FORMAT IS REPEATEDLY USED TO READ E"'CH C CflLU,",,,,, THE LENGnt OF EACH COLUMN MAY NOT BE THE SAME ~HICH C IS TAH:N CARE UF BY THE PROGR ... N. :.G.{lOF6.21 C"'N BE USED IN
--{-- ~~~~~~~~~?~.~r+:~.C~AA~T~X(~I-.~2,-.. -.-.- -.-.~C~.A~T~X~(,~.'~C~A~.T .. X~'~,,,-------C NCXT C"'RD - CM ... TX( 2011 CM ... TX(2.ICMATX(211 C NEXT CARD FOR ~EA()lNG THE 3 AD COLUNN OF CN"TX IF NTHD .GT.Z
~ ~ii~ ... c~~~Q~N~O~~A~'-" .. ~~!~R~x-!,J:O':~ ... &~I~:'io!!'-"5H".!!:.:J!ge-.--------------C NEXT CARD - THO (I.E. THOll) ,T"'OeNTHon C NEXT CARU - FORMAT FUN Re"'DING THE STARTI ~G VALUES
-
304
APPENDIX 82 C .. HITF. NOISE; UF THE: FIRS"I PIECE) C ____ NEXT CARD - SO FO~ THE -.H.TE NOI SFS It .E. sot I' eo 5DemHO.'! )
--C=====.,.s .. "'==".."."'= .. _ ........... =-._-... _ ... _ ... _ .... -.. _ .............. . C= .. "'="'=.===a: ...... = .. ==== ___ ______
'iliA ITEe 6. 51} ~1 FURtllATC'.'}
IFCFdHIllt7ZJ.NE.BI (iQTD :t~ ..fEAO( 5. IOO) 10.N1HD , .... STY.NSIMV.NLPREG ,REDU
100 f"U~~""C515.F5.21 NkEG=\lTHD+l ~EO"Di S. 26bli IttU fit t 1,lsI.NlEG, .... ~EG 15 THe NO OF REGIONS
200 FtJWolAT( 1015) ~EAD(5. 300)FORN
""- -")('-o-J:t:J1UfnTlR)Ur----DU 1 .-I.NREG NPAAIII= le"'ATxt I)
I a~:gl~:'jg'bjJAi:ATXC loJ) .IltNPAR14' READe 5. FORM) I THDC H.I-.,NTHO I R eAot S. 300 )FORN
____ ~~:g:~: ~~'Oj~ARJMX( II , ,HSTVI READIS, FOR"')t 5 IGMAIII .1-l,froREG!
c:z:=== .. ==== .. = .. ===.""._ ........ _--.._. a ,. ___ __ "'. C .H:.AOI .... G OF DATA FINISHED e_=:: .. =::== ..... "'z.:o:.=""' =z_ ... _._ _._ ............... a C + ++ + +++ + +++ + ++ +++ +++++++++++++++++++++ ++ + ++ + ++ ++++ +++++++++++ +++++ +++++ C=::=="' .. ==="'="" .. :____---_____ .... C _ wH I"""G OF Tt OPTIONS PASSED TO tHE PRCXiAAM ~::====.::== ... =:z ... ==~.'"' .. --.._ :o: _. _____ = .. :o::s.
WR ITE( 6. 101) 10,NT.-o ,NSTV,MS. MV.NLPREG .REDU 101 FORNATl"'" OPTIONS PASSED TO THE PRQGRAJIIII I""
1 ;1$ IVe7I~ 6~'HtUl\1rI1';~:'~RUlg~ '" .. 516 .F6,Z,' 102 FORMAT" IOU.T. '" 1015")
DO 2 I=-I.NREG
-- . -2 -~~f~"1i~ri~1\! lr;c .... "r"XT( r( .,--J"'7.-J>"I"."'NP"' ....... cr, --------------103 FORMATI" ChI .. T., .12. .1) '.(101' ',FIO )))
'R ITEe 6.10" It THOll) .I=I.NTHOI 10" :g~~~T ~ .. ~ o~7~ S\~I:C~ r.y~~ ~Nsfvll 0= 10.") 105 FUR"''-T('" SII4I( (Hr~E STARTING VALLES) :II ',(10(1 ',FIO )ll
"'IoiITE( 61 106)( SIGMA( I) ,I., ,NREG) ___ 106.JOR"IAT(' SIGMA: '01(1""12 '
C=:=:=-' =::- :- ==--=- .. : .. = .... "":.:0:_=""':0:""._:_"'===:::.0=: ........ "' .. ""."._."''''.''''"..-=== .. __ C 5 INUL .. T ION HEGINS C: '" '" "" '" '" '" "':: =",:",,= === ======= ...... "'= ==zc.""::== === ~.~ .... '"'.a"" ... =="' ... ~""=="" ... := C '.>INULATC THE FIRST .JODO POINTS
CALL s I'" 1 (s I'U,NsTv,JCdd, fFIJ ,NfRO 110 ,(tMXrx .CJIIAtx .sIGMAI '..JSE THF.. LAST Ft:::1t VALUES TO 51 MIA.. .. r:: AGAIN 00 :! 1= 1. NSTV
c .. ~. l~~~ly.~~g~:-~-"'O~01l~;~~Ei!-STJ..:~'tAil'io .. PE"F"U"L"LV.,----------------CALL Sol'" II SIP"X INSTlf,NSl MV. tHo .NTHD .10.1 CJoIIATX ,CNATX.5 IGMA I
C C:UNI40'-l ST AT I ST ICAL ,""RoPER TIE 5
----5-00 ;~k!l~~:~~~o~gt~sC~R~tpp~rt~O~N'OMF"ffi~.rFF~t.A~Sfr>'aoo"'S"t ~ULU.~T~EOO'P~O"t~Nr~S~.7//71,---------CALL DFSACF(NSIMV.SII4X,l,.e SOa CALL HtSTCN!iIMV.sl"'X,BX.~1
- -~ 't~~~3 ~~:~ {P~"-~~~~t ~;.;e\-'!\!'~ O,!,,"". ",=.~NLC
-
305
APPENDIX B3 DlJ 5 K= 2. NPAR ... ~ !~.S~1:i~A1"~I~~-Ll!9I:iLEC STye [-K+lI) +T __________ . ____ _
~ CUI'I'INUE C "jjI-lITE(6.100IN~IOo4V. (STV(I'.I=IS,fEI C 100 FQf.lto4AT('l', 15.' NO OF SIMULAnONS : '/(' ',IOFla ') ---~
E"D IN~UT L l"-lE LIST I-INClHS
SUI:IROUT INF I{NSI Rill J C::=-i'i""~-::::=-====--==-",- ==.::=_-___ =_"'=:c =_= ___ =:>::_==_=====- _-_=_=: __ _ C:::: =- ~ ,-.,. ~ "''''''' '" ====;"'===""===:=====:==:::==-============-==========::==:==== C GE::.NERATE RANUOfol NUMBER FRO ... (O.l) C JUT'luT RN (5 THE ~NDO'" NUIoeEH
-T======-- - __ ==== _ - -= === __ :c_- =="'_-==-_-=-= ====- -=-C:= = "''' "''' '" :::; = '" '" = ====;=:: :==::=-=========== == .. === ::=======:::: ===-=::::= ==::= = =., "'::
OATA. IP/1428fla )/214748-,647 RETUR" END SUBROUTINE:. RNUJ.l5IRNOR .NEAN.Gt3)
c=::::" = = = = = = = = = = = == = ===:== == =: ==:====::== == = === = =-====::::="'==== === =:= = === '" c===: ==='" ==:====-- =-==--=-=====--=-===--=- --- -- ---======-====-=="':=====
---C--- GEtHR.II.TES NuMtH;:RS FRON NI NEAN.GRI C "'IEAN:"IEAN C Cil=STANOARc) OEVIAT[ON C OUTPUT: ~NUH c--=====,,====::= _::-==_- ==_= __ --=== "'_>:-:===::--==--===::- __ _ C: =:: = == ==~= ==== == ="'= :==========:===== =:=======:0:==:::::::::==:::===== =====
O ... TA 1/0/
i ij i.-~~(-~~.~Jt:j-f!U!L~Q X=2.0-RN-I.O CALL I~NSI RN, Y""2.0.RN-l.0 S=X_Xt-V'*Y tFIS.GE.I.ol GUTa 10 S= sa~T( -2 .0tALf)(';( S) /~ I ",NUR= x* S -Ga~ys-
1= 1 GOTO 40
30 ~NUR=G02 _.- - ---[:-0--
... n CL.\NT!'IUE !:",.,tJ~=HN;)R.Gi'lt-~F"AN Hf.TLJI.!"I EN-D-
t !N~'\IT LINt:: L 1ST -HOIST ;;\J!lIWUTINE:. I;lJOISTt IX.VAL1..f:.N,IO)
C= = ~ = '" = = = = '" = = = = == = =: ==:::=:::===:::==========::====-== ========== ======;= ==="'= ---~--.- --~S"F--------=-""TlJPr0i tAE BIVARIAtE jlsTRIBOlluN
C I'IPUT: I X=>OINTS C N=Lt.N
-
306
APPENDIX B4
DO 1 1= 1. 21 1 VALUE' l1=BXt-( 1-11 ).SOIFHACT ~--- ------0:0 2 1- I.R
1J,i,&NK:{X'II-BX)*FRACTI'SD+.5 II
-
307
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317
AUTHOR INDEX
Akaike, H., 9, 10, 49, 77, 122~124, 126, 128, 129, 151, 152, 160, 231, 250, 255
Andersen, A.P., 19 An H.Z., 20 Andronov, A.A., 35, 41, 43~5, 48, 50, 72, 89 Appleton, LV., 89 Atkinson, A.C., 123
Bartlett, M.S., 62 Bellman, R., 54 Bhansali, R.J., 123, 129 Billingsley, P., 129, 138, 141 Birkhoff, G.D., 11 Bloomfield, P., 212, 231, 250 Boltzmann, L., 123, 124 Bonilla, L.L., 56 Box, G.E.P., 2,14,122,157,160,187,231 Bray, R.J., 57 Brelsford, W.M., 63 Brillinger,D.R., 25,30,31,33, 78, 152, 153, 250, 272 Brubacher, S.R., 250
Campbell, M.J., 165, 182 Chan, L., 51 Chan, W.Y.T., 217 Chien, M.J., 51 Childers, D.G., 34 Cooke, K. L., 54 Courant, R., 64 Cox, D.R., 52, 53, 129, 159, 160, 182 Craddock, J.M., 231 Cuff, W.R., 50, 272
Doob, J.L., 5, 12, 109 Downham,D.Y., 123
Fisz, M., 18 Feder, P.T., 149
Gabr, M.M., 208 Ghaddar, O.K., 155, 187, 190, 231, 248 Gladyshev, E.G., 63 Goel, N.S., 212 Golub, G., 133 Granger, C.W.J., 19, 212 Greenspan, D., 71 Gudmundsson, G., 52,259 Gurnowski, I., 54,71, 72
Hannan, E.J., 123 Harrison. P.J., 66
-
Hilbert, D., 64 Hsu,C.S., 56 Hutchinson, G.E., 56 Huygen, C., 89 Hyndman, B.W., 89
Ipaktchi, 50, 163, 164
318
Jenkins, G.M., 2,14,77,122,157,187,217,219,231 Jones, D.A., 93,98, 100 Jones, J.W., 216 Jones, R. H., 63
Kagan, A.M., 27 Kent, J. T ., 128 Khai kin, S. E., 41, 430,45, 48, 50 Kitagawa, G., 162,255 Kleiner, B., 162 Klimko, L.A., 137,138 Kottegoda, N. T ., 258
Larimore, W.E., 129 Lawrance, A.J., 63, 97, 258 Levin, S.A., 54~56 Lewis, P.A.W., 63, 97 Li, T-Y., 76 Lim, K.S., 59,62,90,137,147,151,159,165,185,187,189,190,229,
231, 252, 259 Lin, C-C., 158 Linnik, Y.V., 27 Lindgren, G., 53 Ljung, G.M., 157 Lotka, A.J., 41, 163 Loughhead, R.E., 57 Lyapunov, A., 35
MacLane, S., 11 Maitra, S.C., 212 Martin, R.D., 162 May, R.M., 50, 54, 56 Milton, R.C., 133 Minorsky, N., 35, 36, 40, 43, 78, 99 Mira, C., 71, 72 Moller, H.G., 89 Montroll, E.W., 212 Moran, P.A.P., 231 Mudhoekar, G.S., 158
Needham, J., 1 Nelder, J.A., 133 Ne 1 son, P. 1., 137, 138 Newbold, P., 129,212 Nicholson, A.J., 272 Nield, D., 51, 276
-
Oster, G., 50,163, 164 Ozaki, T., 255
~9
Parzen, E., 77, 122, 129, 208 Pemberton, J., 16,73, 159, 208, 252 Penm, J.H.W., 161 Pielou, E.C., 51 Poincare, H., 35, 38 Poston, T., 66 Priestley, M.B., 4,6,8, 34, 70, 77, 152, 155, 157, 208
Quinn, B.G., 123
Rao, C.R., 27 Rayleigh, lord, 89 Readshaw, J.l., 50,272 Robinson, P.M., 55,151, 162 Rosenblatt, M., 8, 25, 32, 70, 152, 153, 155, 250
Sanov,I.N., 124 Schaerf, M.C., 231 Schoenberg, I.J., 65 Schuster, A., 34 Schwabe, H., 57, 230 Schwarz, G., 123 Shibata, A., 129, 150 Shimizu, R., 151 Small, N.J.H., 159 Smith, A.F.M., 123 Smith, J.Q., 66,70 Stewart, I.N., 66 Stoker, J.J., 89 Stone, ~., 123, 129 Subba Rao, T., 19, 154 Sugawara, M., 258
Teng, H., 259 Terrell, R.D., 161 Thanoon, B., 46,259 Thomson,D.J., 162 Todini, E., 258 Tong, H., 16, 18~20, 25, 55, 59, 62, 66, 73, 90, 102, 11~123, 129, 131,
137, 147, 151, 155, 159, 165, 182, 185, 189, 208, 216, 231, 148, 252, 255, 259
Tunnicliffe-Wilson, G., 136 Tweedie, R.l., 94
Van der Pol., 89 Verlarde, M.G., 57 Vincent, J.H., 89 Vitt, A.A., 41, 43~5, 48, 50 Volterra, V., 41, 163
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Wahba, G., 65 Walker, A.M., 165, 182 Wallis, J.R., 258 Wallis, K.r., 217 Wang, S.R., 20 Watson, G.S., 155 Watts, D.G., 77, 157 Weiss, G., 26 Whittle, P., 32, 48, 60 Wiener, N., 54 Wolf, R., 230 Wu, Z.M., 121, 185, 252
Yakowitz, S.J., 155 York, J.A., 76 Yoshimura, H., 57, 230, 256 Yule, G.U., 6, 22, 34, 35, 231
Zeeman, C.E., 66, 70
320
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SUBJECT INDEX
Akaike's Information Criterion 128 amplitude-frequency dependency 77, 82 autocorrelation function 5, 22, 156, 167 autocovariance function 4, 8, 152, 159 autoregressive generating function 7
beats 89~92 birth curve 164, 181 Box-Cox transformation 160, 212 brain 53
catastrophe 66 censored data 162 centre 40, 163 chaotic state 72, 85, 89 condensation 160, 248 conservation law of population biology 163 Cox's model 182 criterion autoregressive transfer fu~ction 129 cyclical data 22 cyclically moving subsets 109, 111
data blowfly 50, 51, 272 Canadian lynx 22, 114~121, 165~214 Icelandic Rivers 260~271 mink-muskrat 216~230 Seiche Record 49 Sunspot I, 6, 34, 230~257
delay 46, 54~58, 61, 165, 272 maturation 164, 171
delay differential (or difference) equation 46, 54~56, 165, 170 difference equation
linear 9, 14 non-linear 71~77
discontinuous decision 65, 66
economics multisector 51, 52
entropy 123~125 entropy maximization, 128 ergodicity 93, 94 eventual forecasting function (eff) 187
Fast Fourier Transform 152 feedback controller 44, 46, 47 focus 39 forecasting 107~121 frequency entrainment 89
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322
Gaussian sequence 7. 9. 25
hare 216 higher harmonics 77. 84 Householder transformation 133. 147 Hutchinson's equatio