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10/4/2017
1
The Current Performance and Near-Term Outlook for the U.S. and Washington Region’s Economies
Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.The Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor
Director, The Stephen S. Fuller InstituteSchar School of Policy and Government
George Mason UniversityOctober 4, 2017
-4-3-2-1012345
Washington
U.S.
U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRP 2007 – 2015 – 2021(Baseline Forecast, Annual % Change)(%)Forecast
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
10/4/2017
2
How is the U.S. economy performing and what is the outlook for 2018?
05
10152025303540
0Q 2Q 4Q 6Q 8Q 10Q 12Q 14Q 16Q 18Q 20Q 22Q 24Q 26Q 28Q 30Q 32Q
% Chan
ge in G
DP*
Quarters After Trough
1982-Q31991-Q12009-Q22001-Q4**
Recession Recovery Patterns of GDPPast Four Recessions
*in 1992 or 2009 Chained Dollars** Quarters 26+ include the 2009 RecessionSources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
10/4/2017
3
(25.0) (20.0) (15.0) (10.0) (5.0)
- 5.0
10.0 15.0
U.S. Leading IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(10.0) (8.0) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0)
- 2.0 4.0
U.S. Coincident IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
10/4/2017
4
-8,000-6,000-4,000-2,000
02,0004,0006,000
U.S. Annual Change in Payroll JobsMonth-Over-The-Year
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(000s) Aug = +2.1 M
-690
6192
68264
151142
333-29
2607
477
(600) (400) (200) - 200 400 600 800Information
Federal Govt.Transp. & Util.Other Services
Wlse TradeConstruction
FinancialManufacturing
Leisure & Hosp.Retail Trade
State & Local GovtProf. & Bus. Svcs
Educ & Health Svcs
U.S. Payroll Job Change by SectorAugust 2016 – August 2017Ranked by Size in 2016 (000s) Total = +2,100
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
10/4/2017
5
456789
1011
U.S. Unemployment RateAugust 2009 – August 2017
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
%IHS Forecast17 – 4.418 – 4.119 – 4.020 – 4.121 – 4.2
Aug 17 = 4.4%
020406080
100120
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Brent Crude Spot Price$ per barrel
Sources: IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
($/barrel)Forecast
10/4/2017
6
- 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160
Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17
Expectations
Present
U.S. Consumer ConfidenceSeptember 2010 – September 2017
Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
-1012345
U.S. Consumer PricesPercent Change, 2001 - 2021
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(%)Forecast
10/4/2017
7
012345678
30-Yr
10-YrTreasuryFed
U.S. Interest RatesAverage Annual, 2001 - 2021
Sources: IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(%)Forecast
300350400450500550600650
3,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,500
U.S. New and Existing Home Sales
Existing (Left Axis)
New (Right Axis)
(000s) (000s)
Sources: U.S. Census (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
10/4/2017
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3.13.8 3.5 3.0
2.2
-0.3-1.6
1.9 2.31.5 1.5
2.93.6
2.7 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.5
-2-1012345
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
U.S. Growth in Total Consumption OutlaysForecast
(%)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
-10-8-6-4-20246
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2007 – 2018%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Forecast
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
10/4/2017
9
How is the Washington Region’s economy currently performing?
-60-40-20
020406080
100
Annual Job Change, 2002-2017Washington Region
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s) Aug 17 = +67.6
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10
0255075
100125150
15 Largest U.S. Job MarketsJob Change: August 2016 – August 2017(000s)
Washington: +67,600
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
15 Largest U.S. Job MarketsJob Change: August 2016 – August 2017Washington: +2.1%
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
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1-1
4-3
60
34
145
-120
17
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30Manufacturing
Wholesale TradeTransportation & Utilities
InformationConstruction
Financial ActivitiesOther Services
Retail TradeLeisure & Hospitality
State & Local GovtFederal Govt
Edu.& Health ServicesProf. & Business Services
Washington MSA Job Change by Sector August 2016 – August 2017Ranked by Size in 2016 (000s) Total = 67,600
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
-20-15-10-505
10152025 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services & Management Administrative & Waste Management
Professional and Business Services JobsWashington MSAAnnual Month Over-the-Year(000s)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Aug 17 Total = 762.7
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-10-505
10152025 Hospitals Ambulatory Health Care, Nursing & Residential Care Educational Services
Education and Health Services JobsWashington MSAAnnual Month Over-the-Year(000s)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Aug 17 Total = 444.9
-20-15-10-505
10152025
Federal Government JobsWashington MSA
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s) Aug 17 Total = 365.9
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-10-505
101520 Accommodation Food Services & Drinking Places Entertainment
Leisure and Hospitality Services JobsWashington MSAAnnual Month Over-the-Year(000s)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Aug 17 Total = 346.4
-30-20-10
0102030405060
District of ColumbiaAnnual Job Change, 2002-2017
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s) Aug 17 = +15.0
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0.00.4
-0.20.3
-0.3-0.1
-0.41.5
-0.55.6
6.73.0
-1.0
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10Manufacturing
Transportation & UtilitiesWholesale Trade
ConstructionInformation
Retail TradeFinancial ActivitiesState & Local Govt
Other ServicesLeisure & Hospitality
Edu. & Health ServicesProf. & Business Services
Federal Govt
District of Columbia Job Change by Sector August 2016 – August 2017Ranked by Size in 2016 (000s) Total = 15,000
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
-30-20-10
0102030405060
Suburban Maryland Annual Job Change, 2002-2017
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s) Aug 17 = +21.22012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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-0.10.0
-0.40.20.3
-0.44.0
0.37.7
0.32.2
5.91.2
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10Information
Transportation & UtilitiesWholesale Trade
ManufacturingOther Services
Financial ActivitiesConstructionFederal Govt
Leisure & HospitalityRetail Trade
Edu. & Health ServicesState & Local Govt
Prof.& Business Services
Suburban Maryland Job Change by Sector August 2016 – August 2017Ranked by Size in 2016 (000s) Total = 21,200
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
-30-20-10
0102030405060
Northern VirginiaAnnual Job Change, 2002-2017
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s) Aug 17 = +18.62012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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-0.11.01.1
-3.63.2
2.11.4
-0.12.2
-1.0-3.2
5.210.4
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20Manufacturing
Wholesale TradeTransportation & Utilities
InformationConstruction
Financial ActivitiesOther Services
Federal GovtRetail Trade
Leisure & HospitalityState & Local Govt
Edu. & Health ServicesProf. & Business Services
Northern Virginia Job Change by Sector August 2016 – August 2017Ranked by Size in 2016 (000s) Total = 18,600
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
02468
1012
6.6 – DC4.4 – U.S.3.7 – MSA3.6 – SMD3.2 – NVA
Washington Metropolitan AreaUnemployment Rates By Sub-State Area, 2010-2017
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (US: Seasonally Adjusted; MSA: Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(%)
10/4/2017
17
Is the Washington Region’s economy becoming more diversified? Roadmap Update
AdvocacyServices Information &
Communications Technology Services
Science &Security TechnologyServices
Bio & HealthTechnology ServicesBusiness &
Financial Services
Media & Information
Services
Business & Leisure Travel Services
The Washington Region’s Advanced Industrial Clusters
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% ChangeClusters 4.0%Non-Cluster, Private 6.2%Government 3.0%Total Jobs 5.0%
Employment in the Advanced Industrial ClustersMarch 2014 – March 2017 Change
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
% ChangeClusters 4.0%Non-Cluster, Private 6.2%Government 3.0%Total Jobs 5.0%Clusters, U.S. 8.0%
Employment in the Advanced Industrial ClustersMarch 2014 – March 2017 Change
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
10/4/2017
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1.3% 1.6%
-0.6% -1.4%
6.9%
1.6%3.1%
1.3%
3.6% 3.6%
0.9%
-0.7%
6.5%
1.2%2.6% 2.6%
-2%0%2%4%6%8%
Info. Comm.Tech. BusinessServices Science &Security Tech. Media & Info. Bio. & HealthTech. Advocacy Business &Leisure Travel All Clusters
Washington U.S.
Underperforming the Nation Outperforming the Nation
Growth Rates of the Washington Region’sAdvanced Industrial ClustersMarch 2014 to March 2017, Annualized Growth
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
717,400 726,700
741,800
713,200
732,000
756,700 770,300
710,000 720,000 730,000 740,000 750,000 760,000 770,000 780,000
Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Washington Region U.S. Growth Path
28,450 jobs
Comparative Cluster Performances: Washington Region and the U.S.
29,950 jobs
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
10/4/2017
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What is the Washington Region’s economic near-term outlook?
Employment Change by Sub-State AreaBaseline Forecast (000s)2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
D.C. 5.2 15.9 13.0 10.4 9.2 8.1 6.2 5.5 Sub. MD 10.2 12.5 14.4 22.8 16.6 16.2 13.1 12.3No. VA 0.8 29.8 31.0 19.8 20.4 20.8 15.1 13.0REGION 18.6 57.7 55.6 53.0 46.2 45.1 34.4 30.8
Source: BLS, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (forecast as of September 2017)NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV.
Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,300
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NoVAWMSASub MDDC
Washington MSA and Sub-State AreasEconomic Outlook (GRP), 2007-2021(Baseline Forecast, Annual % Change)(%)Forecast
Sources: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
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Washington
U.S.
U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRP 2007 – 2015 – 2021(Baseline Forecast, Annual % Change)(%)Forecast
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
10/4/2017
22
Thank You & QuestionsFor monthly reports on the Washington region’s economic performance go to:
sfullerinstitute.gmu.edu