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Final Progress Review 25 MAY 2011 UNCLASSIFIED Final Progress Review 25 MAY 2011 UNCLASSIFIED SEA-17B Capstone Project

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2 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Overview SEA-17B has developed an Advanced Undersea Warfare System that enables control of the future Undersea Battlespace using superior weapons, sensors, AND communications. Flexible Scalable Tailorable 3 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Agenda Section 1 Tasking Methodology Section 2 Problem Statement Stakeholder Analysis CONOP Needs Analysis Section 3 Functional Analysis Alternative Generation DOE Section 4 Design Concept Overview Section 5 Analysis of Alternatives Performance Analysis M&S Non-Stochastic Analysis Sensitivity Cost Analysis Risk Analysis Section 6 Concept Recommendations Section 7 Insights Section 8 Conclusion 4 UNCLASSIFIED Section 1 Tasking Methodology Section 2 Problem Statement Stakeholder Analysis CONOP Needs Analysis Section 3 Functional Analysis Alternative Generation DOE Section 4 Design Concept Overview Section 5 Analysis of Alternatives Performance Cost Risk Section 6 Recommend- ations Primary Secondary Hybrid Section 7 Project Insights Project Recommend- ations Section 8 Conclusions

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Section 1 Tasking Methodology Tasking Methodology 5 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Tasking 6 UNCLASSIFIED Define a system of capabilities that would be necessary to create and sustain an underwater operational picture of areas of interest and counter and engage adversary manned and unmanned systems when required.

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Click to edit Master title style Systems Engineering Plan 7 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Systems Engineering Process ProblemMissionNeedFunction Physical Alternatives Define Consider Identify Analyze Evaluate Recommend Perform Address Accomplish Solve 8 UNCLASSIFIED

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Section 2 Problem Statement Stakeholder Analysis CONOP Needs Analysis Problem Statement Stakeholder Analysis CONOP Needs Analysis 9 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Problem Statement Over the next twenty years the capacity and capability of USW platforms will not meet operational demands in non-permissive areas. Furthermore, the emergence of near-peer competitor navies, the distributed nature of the asymmetric maritime threat, and the development of autonomous undersea threats present a unique challenge that current platform-centric solutions are not ideally designed to confront. 10 Control the undersea battlespace with weapons and sensing superiority! UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style EMERGING TECHNOLOGY THREAT CAPABILITY & CAPACITY SHIPS AIRCRAFT SUBMARINES MINES DEPLOYED SENSORS NEAR-PEER COMPETITOR TIME ASYMMETRIC (mines, diesel submarines,) Future of USW in the Littorals (if we maintain status quo) US NAVY A Visual Representation 11 UNCLASSIFIED CROSSOVER POINT

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Click to edit Master title style EMERGING TECHNOLOGY THREAT NEAR-PEER COMPETITOR TIME Harness Technology Future of USW in the Littorals Closing the Capability Gap US NAVY Maintain Dominance 12 ASYMMETRIC (mines, diesel submarines,) CAPABILITY + CAPACITY SHIPS AIRCRAFT SUBMARINES MINES DEPLOYED SENSORS AUWS UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Considering Mission Areas Limited resources, evolving threats, and emerging technologies all suggest leveraging the benefits of Mine Warfare in the undersea environment. Limited Resources Evolving Threats Emerging Technology Near-peer AsymmetricAutonomousISRASW Force Protection DeterrenceShaping Enhanced capability Affordability Naval Mining + Unmanned Tech + Distributed Networks Multiple Mission Technology is neutral! 13 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Stakeholder Analysis 14 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Stakeholder Matrix 15 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Shape Deter SeizeDominateStabilize Concept of Operations 16 COVERT ISR Clandestine insertion Battlespace preparation ISR for Intelligence Operations SMART MINE THREAT Hold-at-risk Early Warning Show of force ENGAGE- MENT Engage hostile targets as directed PERSISTENT ASSET Area Denial Maintain persistent presence FORCE MULTIPLIER Protect friendly assets Monitor area to contribute to COP UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Needs Analysis 17 UNCLASSIFIED

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Section 3 Functional Analysis Alternative Generation Design of Experiments Functional Analysis Alternative Generation Design of Experiments 18 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Functional Analysis I/O 19 Controllable: Power Consumption Operator Inputs System Parameters Mission Data Training Methodology Peer System Input AUWS Uncontrollable: Contact Signature Unknown Threat Tactics Weather Environmental INPUTS OUTPUTS Intended: Threat Classification Threat Prioritized Mobilization of Kinetic Subsystem Automated Engagement of Threat Threat Elimination Sensor Data Communication with Command and Control BDA By-Products: Unintended Casualties Stray Signals Impact to Ecosystem UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Functional Analysis - Decomp 20 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style 21 AUWS Sensor Acoustic Passive Active Visual EO IR Magnetic Pressure Seismic Communicator (internal/external) Acoustic Digital Analog Connected Fiber Optic Electrical Laser Physical Messenger Data Bubble Vehicle RF Weapon Torpedo Mini Lightweight Embedded Warhead Explosive Limpet Fixed Missile Soft Kill 3 elements, 7-8 variants Over 1 billion possibilities Eliminated infeasible, least promising variants Warfare Innovation Workshop 33,000 possibilities Made operational assumptions 48 possibilities Work groups 7 preliminary concepts Scoring and Screening 4 concepts selected Combined Only external Alternative Generation UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Used as a validation tool Goal: adequately cover the design space Critical elements (Factors) Weapons, sensors, and communicators Levels Large/small Centralized/distributed Smart/dumb Mobile/stationary Combined/separate Led to a change from Swarm to LD-UUV 22 UNCLASSIFIED Design of Experiments

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Section 4 Design Concept Overview V-CAP LD-UUV Glider Squid Design Concept Overview V-CAP LD-UUV Glider Squid 23 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style V-CAP Diagram 24 Twin torpedo-shaped autonomous UUVs Power High-capacity Battery supplemented with wave-motion recharge unit Mobility Hybrid Electric/OTTO fuel propulsor Communications LOS RF, Iridium, and Acoustic modem (internal) Sensors Acoustic and EO sensors Deployable distributed sensor nodes Armament 2x mini-torpedoes per Killer unit UNCLASSIFIED Hunter Unit Killer Unit

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Click to edit Master title style V-CAP Deployment UNCLASSIFIED 25

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Click to edit Master title style V-CAP Employment 26 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style V-CAP Recovery 27 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Large Diameter UUV Diagram 28 Large Diameter autonomous undersea payload delivery and engagement UUV Power High-capacity Battery Mobility Electric-drive propulsor Communications LOS RF, Iridium, and Acoustic modem (internal) Sensors Acoustic and EO sensors Deployable distributed paired sensor nodes Armament 4x lightweight torpedoes UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style LD-UUV Deployment 29 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style LD-UUV Employment 30 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style LD-UUV Recovery 31 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Glider Diagram 32 Networked Autonomous high- endurance UUVs Power Fuel cell with supplemental solar cell recharge Mobility Adjustable ballast and control surfaces with OTTO-fueled terminal homing propulsor drive Communications LOS RF, Iridium, and acoustic modem (internal) Sensors Passive sonar Armament 10 kg HE shaped charge UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Glider Deployment 33 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Glider Employment 34 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Glider Recovery 35 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Squid Diagram 36 Distributed network of stationary weapons and comms nodes, each with onboard sensors Power Non-rechargeable batteries Mobility N/A Communications LOS RF and Iridium (external) and acoustic modem (internal) Sensors Passive sonar mounted to Weapons and Comms nodes Armament Multiple 1 kg HE sub-munitions Weapons Nodes Comms Node UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Squid Deployment 37 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Squid Employment 38 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Expendable design Disarm and Self-neutralize on command or via timer Squid Recovery 39 Recovery not Feasible No Internal Propulsion High Volume of Units UNCLASSIFIED

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Section 5 Analysis of Alternatives Performance Cost Risk Analysis of Alternatives Performance Cost Risk 40 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style AoA Methodology 41 UNCLASSIFIED Recommended Alternative(s) Cost AnalysisRisk Analysis Performance Analysis (OMOE) QFD Functional Analysis AHPNeeds Stakeholder Preferences MOE Performance Results Non-Stochastic Analysis Quantitative Analysis Qualitative Analysis M&S Factor Weighting TRACEABILITY

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Click to edit Master title style MOE: Capability to Operate for a Minimum of 30 Days Non-Stochastic Analyses 42 UNCLASSIFIED ConceptEndurance in Days V-CAP123 LD-UUV126 GLIDER987 SQUID16 MOE: Capability for Deployment from Current and Future Platforms MOE: Capability for Recovery by Current and Future Platforms MOE: Capability to Avoid Detection ConceptCapability Score (1-3) V-CAP2.5 LD-UUV1.5 GLIDER1.0 SQUID1.0 ConceptCapability Score (0-3) V-CAP3.0 LD-UUV1.5 GLIDER2.0 SQUID0.0 ConceptCapability Score (0-1) V-CAP1.0 LD-UUV1.0 GLIDER0.25 SQUID0.5

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Click to edit Master title style Neutral/Friendly Surface Vessel Threat Surface Vessel Enemy Submarine OPERATING AREA Environmental Characteristics Sea State: 2-3 Winds:

Click to edit Master title style 1 LD-UUV, 16 sensor nodes, 4 Mk-50 torpedoes Sensor Range: 2.0 nm Comms Range: 1.2 nm Kill Range: > 10 nm Cable: 1000 yds (8 pairs) At least 2 nodes required for classification Nodes decide which contacts to report (group based) UUV serves as gateway 45 LD-UUV Model UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style 17 Gliders Sensor Range: 2.7 nm Comms Range: 1.6 nm Speed: 2 kts Lateral Intercept Range: 0.55 nm (from Approaching Target Model) Coordinated Barrier Search (1.43 nm segments) Middle Gliders primarily for comms relay Gliders decide which contacts to report Gliders surface for external communications 46 Glider Model UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style 130 sensor/weapon nodes, 1 communications gateway Sensor Range: 1.35 nm Comms Range: 0.8 nm Kill Range: 50 yds Squid nodes randomly placed (e.g. artillery, air drop) Nodes must have path to gateway to be in network Must be in network to report contacts and engage threats 126 nodes in network on avg. Each node determines shortest path to Gateway Nodes report all contacts and relay all messages 47 SQUID Model UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Avg TTC (min)PdPd PkPk Glider13.3-15.00.74-0.750.16-0.22 LD-UUV2.9-3.10.80-0.810.33-0.43 Squid3.5-3.70.97-0.990.07-0.09 V-CAP4.5-4.70.80-0.820.54-0.65 M&S Results UNCLASSIFIED 48

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Click to edit Master title style Analytic Hierarchy Process 49 UNCLASSIFIED Needs Analysis Preference Ranking Pairwise Analysis

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Click to edit Master title style QFD Function Wt. HOQ 1 Functions HOQ 2 MOE Quality Functional Deployment 50 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Performance Analysis Results 51 UNCLASSIFIED Non-Stochastic Analysis M&S

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Click to edit Master title style Cost Analysis Results 52 UNCLASSIFIED RDT&E Costs - excluded Production Costs Based on Component Costs O&S Costs Consumables Fuel, Warheads, Replacements Personnel (excluded) Disposal Costs - excluded 20-yr Rough Cost Estimate AlternativeCost (FY2011$M) V-CAP359 LD-UUV690 GLIDER75 SQUID2418 V-CAP: Good balance LD-UUV: High per-unit cost GLIDER: Low procurement & consumable cost SQUID: High cost due to large number of expendables

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Click to edit Master title style Risk Analysis Results 53 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style AoA Results 54 UNCLASSIFIED Factor Weighting

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Click to edit Master title style AoA Sensitivity 55 UNCLASSIFIED V-CAP LD-UUV GLIDER SQUID V-CAP LD-UUV GLIDER SQUID

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Click to edit Master title style AoA CAIV 56 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Options for the given scenario Mines Surface Combatants Submarines Superior performance Cost is debatable Assume AUWS provides no LCC savings! Operational risk is unacceptable $2B strategic asset and hundreds of lives at risk Even one SSN is overkill AUWS can be scaled to balance risk with performance 57 UNCLASSIFIED Given that resources are not unlimited, the dynamic of exchanging numbers for capability is perhaps reaching a point of diminishing returns. A given ship or aircraftno matter how capable or well equippedcan only be in one place at one timeand, to state the obvious, when one is sunk or shot down, there is one fewer of them. -Secretary Gates, 2009 Given that resources are not unlimited, the dynamic of exchanging numbers for capability is perhaps reaching a point of diminishing returns. A given ship or aircraftno matter how capable or well equippedcan only be in one place at one timeand, to state the obvious, when one is sunk or shot down, there is one fewer of them. -Secretary Gates, 2009 Status Quo Alternative Courtesy of www.navy.mil

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Section 6 Concept Recommendations Primary: V-CAP Secondary: LD-UUV Hybrid Concept Recommendations Primary: V-CAP Secondary: LD-UUV Hybrid 58 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Primary Concept: V-CAP 59 UNCLASSIFIED Pros: Best P k Good P d Ease of Deployment & Recovery Follow-on Salvo Cost Cons: Slower Comms Shorter Endurance Pros: Best P k Good P d Ease of Deployment & Recovery Follow-on Salvo Cost Cons: Slower Comms Shorter Endurance

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Click to edit Master title style Secondary Concept: LD-UUV 60 UNCLASSIFIED Pros: Rapid Comms Better Endurance Cons: Limited Deployability Limited Recoverability Limited Salvo Cost Pros: Rapid Comms Better Endurance Cons: Limited Deployability Limited Recoverability Limited Salvo Cost

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Click to edit Master title style Hybrid Recommendation 61 UNCLASSIFIED Double Deployment Improved P d, P k LD-UUV Paired Nodes Improved Comms Double Deployment Improved P d, P k LD-UUV Paired Nodes Improved Comms

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Section 7 Project Insights Project Recommendations Project Insights Project Recommendations 62 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style 63 UNCLASSIFIED Insights Flexibility Network Integration Platform Integration Command & Control Flexibility Network Integration Platform Integration Command & Control Scalability Balance required w/ Cost & Performance Trade-off w/ Flexibility (Physical size of units) Unlike Current Systems Scalability Balance required w/ Cost & Performance Trade-off w/ Flexibility (Physical size of units) Unlike Current Systems Tailorability Mission-reconfigurable modular design Optimal redundancy (heterogeneous vs. homogenous) Separation & distribution yield tactical advantage Tailorability Mission-reconfigurable modular design Optimal redundancy (heterogeneous vs. homogenous) Separation & distribution yield tactical advantage

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Click to edit Master title style AUWS Tradespace USN Mines Squid Flexibility Scalability Tailorability SSN Glider LD-UUV V-CAP This is the AUWS goal! UNCLASSIFIED 64

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Click to edit Master title style Near Term (FYDP 2012-2016) Continue detailed analysis of superior AUWS concepts Review and update doctrine (ROE, tactics, training, etc.) Use this analysis to help ONR define Science and Technology Gap ONR assigns Future Naval Capabilities Manager for AUWS concepts R&D Get prototypes (of any kind) in the hands of sailors! Mid Term (FYDP 2016-2020) Develop Initial Capability Document based on this analysis Initiate AUWS Program of Record based on current best assessment of capability gap Do not wait for technology to advance to optimal levels Far Term (FYDP 2020 ) Maintain a goal of achieving AUWS full operational capability by 2030 65 UNCLASSIFIED Recommendations

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Section 8 Closing Remarks 66 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Closing Remarks 67 UNCLASSIFIED The undersea battlespace of the future is a complex, dynamic environment that cannot be divided neatly along platform or community lines. Advanced Undersea Warfare Systems are just one element of a comprehensive, unified approach to maintaining and enhancing USW dominance in the future.

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Click to edit Master title style Questions 68 UNCLASSIFIED

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Backup Slides 69 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Functional Analysis - FFBD 70 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Functional Analysis A0 71 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Functional Analysis - IDEF0 72 UNCLASSIFIED

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Click to edit Master title style Performance Sensitivity 73 UNCLASSIFIED V-CAP LD-UUV GLIDER SQUID V-CAP LD-UUV GLIDER SQUID

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Click to edit Master title style Specific areas to focus research of superior AUWS concepts Classified version Top level requirements Autonomy (threat discrimination, in-stride adjustability) Detailed design of system and subsystem components Refinement of M&S (improved sensor model, higher realism) Life cycle cost estimates Continue Glider R&D for non-tactical missions (i.e. METOC) 74 UNCLASSIFIED Further Analysis