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Capital Markets Day London November 17th 2015
Robert Jan van de Kraats, CFO
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disclaimer & definitions
Certain statements in this document concern prognoses about the future financial condition, risks, investment plans, productivity and the results of operations of Randstad Holding and its operating companies as well as certain trends, plans and objectives. Obviously, such prognoses involve risks and a degree of uncertainty since they concern future events and depend on circumstances that will apply then. Many factors may contribute to the actual results and developments differing from the prognoses made in this document. These factors include, but are not limited to, general economic conditions, a shortage on the job market, changes in the demand for (flexible) personnel, achievement of cost savings, changes in the business mix, changes in legislation (particularly in relation to employment, staffing and tax laws), the role of industry regulators, future currency and interest fluctuations, our ability to identify relevant risks and mitigate their impact, the availability of credit on financially acceptable terms, the successful completion of company acquisitions and their subsequent integration, successful disposals of companies and the rate of technological developments. These prognoses therefore apply only on the date on which this document was compiled.
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EBITA: operating profit before amortization and impairment acquisition-related intangible assets and goodwill, badwill, integration costs and one-offs.
organic growth is measured excluding the impact of currency effects, acquisitions, disposals and reclassifications.
diluted EPS is measured before amortization and impairment acquisition-related intangible assets and goodwill, badwill, integration costs and one-offs.
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 2
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agenda
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 3
current trading
funnel update – where do we stand?
capital allocation/ dividend policy update
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current trading
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 4
7.7% revenue growth in October (vs. 5.7% in September)
Q3 revenue growth was 5.4%
Gross profit growth in October was 8.4% (+5.8% in Q3)
Perm fees up 9% (vs. 13% in Q3)
volume trend in November so far appears to be in line with October
North America +5% (vs. +4% in Q3 and Sept)
US business up 6% (+5% in Q3)
European countries up 8% (vs. +5% in Q3)
France +8% (vs. 3% in Q3)
Netherlands +10%, in line with Q3
Belgium +10% (vs. +1% in Q3)
Iberia +14% (vs. +8% in Q3)
Italy +26% (vs . +20% in Q3)
Germany +2% in line with Q3
Q4: minor (sequential) increase to SG&A as per outlook
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agenda
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 5
current trading
funnel update – where do we stand?
capital allocation/ dividend policy update
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targets within reach
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 6
growth &
activities +14% YTD, productivity (GP/FTE) +4% YTD
Perm/SME double-digit, competitive market
on track, though 8Qs of low growth
on track, more to come
L4Q15 at 4.4%
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-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
1Q02 2Q03 3Q04 4Q05 1Q07 2Q08 3Q09 4Q10 1Q12 2Q13 3Q14
8Q's of low-mid single digit growth
organic growth in a historical context
consistent mid-single digit topline growth
Europe still ~20% below peak
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 7
topline growth
USA above peak and still growing
Opportunity in EM remains
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strong relative performance
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 8
topline growth
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15
The Netherlands
Randstad Market (ABU)
-15,0%
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15
France
Randstad Market (Prism)
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15
USA*
Randstad Market (ASA)
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field productivity
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 9
ABFS
addresses largest component of our operating expenses
PE field staff
ABFS
management layers, span of control, support staff ratio
further centralization of sourcing and delivery models
PE HO staff
accommodation, IT, marketing & general costs
OPEX FY
€2.5bn
~60%
~40%
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-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%3Q
12
4Q
12
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
Gross Profit Personnel expenses
what has ABFS brought us so far?
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 10
productivity trend – YOY growth for GP & PE field
ABFS
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conversion of activities
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 11
growth in commercial activities vs. productivity (GP/FTE Field)
ABFS
activity levels up to +14% YTD (2014 >30%), productivity (GP/FTE) up 4%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115%
acti
vit
y g
row
th v
s L
Y
GP/FTE field growth vs LY
conversions activities OPCO’s staffing & professionals activity growth vs productivity growth YTD
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perm: a major opportunity
In 2014 perm made up 10.0% (Q3’15; 10.5% or 12.9% Inc. RPO) of group GP (~12% in 2007)
We have the potential to double in established markets
Strategic focus paying off as we outgrow our peer group average
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 12
business mix
Chin
a
UK
AU
S
gro
up
US s
taffin
g
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
perm as % of GP
primarily established temp markets
embryonic/developing markets
1 revenue includes perm + RPO 2 Competitors; Page group, Hays, Adecco, Manpower & Robert Half
YTD perm growth
13%
15%
16%
avg growth competitors
1
2
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
France
The Netherlands
Germany
Iberia
% of GP growth (2013-15*)
perm growing double-digit
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 13
business mix
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€ 60-70M cost savings in 2015-16
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 14
cost
~€ 50M realized so far (annualized) mainly in HO/BO functions
PE field staff
span control and field support
PE HO staff
accommodation, IT, marketing & general costs
OPEX FY
€2.5bn
~60%
~40%
internal HO benchmark
sustainable reductions
size and location of branches
digitization
procurement
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next steps are taken...
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 15
cost
IT costs (~10% of SG&A) should come down 20% over time
PE field staff
PE HO staff
accommodation, IT, marketing & general costs
OPEX FY
€2.5bn
~60%
~40%
increase in business systems which drive GP
create global IT infrastructure SSC
utilize purchasing power in generic IT (telco, networks and hardware)
Support function benchmark continues
benchmarking continues
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agenda
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 16
current trading
funnel update – where do we stand?
capital allocation/ dividend policy update
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solid free cash flow & conservative leverage ratio
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 17
-
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Free cash flow (€M) Leverage Ratio
str
ate
gic
ta
rge
t
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capital allocation priorities
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 18
1 investments in organic growth
3 dividend
4 share buybacks
5 special dividend
2 M&A activity
invest in tech / innovation
payout of 40-50% of adjusted EPS
anti-dilution measures when financial position allows for
potentially when net cash for a longer period
bolt on (supplement current geographical mix, strengthen professionals
invest FTE in growth markets
optional dividend based on current leverage ratio of 0.5
not being considered currently
strategic M&A not likely
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dividend policy
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 19
proposal to pay full cash dividend for year 2015
dividend policy since 2013: payout of 40-50% of adjusted EPS
optional dividend:
leverage ratio < 2.0x: optional dividend
leverage ratio < 2.5x: optional dividend with premium on stock dividend
leverage ratio > 2.5x: stock dividend
anti-dilution measures when financial position allows for it:
performance share plans
optional dividend
dividend policy 2007-2012: €1.25 cash per ordinary share
payout ratio between 30% and 60% of adjusted EPS (amortization, etc)
financial position must allow for it
dividend policy until 2006: 40% of net income (basic EPS), cash only
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key criteria when considering an acquisition
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 20
randstad perspective
1 strengthens our strategic position
2 provides significant value creation
3 manageability
create base for growth in existing markets (support global clients, high growth markets)
professionals is the preferred growth segment (profitability and market growth)
increases our market share (“Big is beautiful”, density of network is critical)
create an entry point into new markets through diversification
acquire capabilities in outsourcing/SOW space
minimum size of € 100M revenue (or at least 80 FTE’s when in small markets)
DCF valuation for entire business cycle (different scenarios to be considered); Considerable cost synergies give best safety net in worst case scenario
cost synergies identified and valued (including the costs to realize and possible loss of revenue)
tax and revenue synergies to be treated separately from valuation
EVA positive within 3 years, including post-deal tracking
agreed price negotiation framework before first indicative offer
management selected and approved integration plan prior to closing the transaction
we have sufficient understanding of the target and its business environment (Due diligence with the involvement of all disciplines and business people)
OPCO concept needs to be proven prior considering local acquisitions
OPCO management able to deal with acquisition and integration and the target has a good cultural fit and strong management
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aiming for leading positions
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 21
US has largest HR services industry worldwide
source: various staffing associations et al., Randstad estimates
2014
ran
dsta
d m
ark
et
po
sit
ion
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
India
Iberia
Switzerland
Brazil
Italy
Canada
Belgium
Australia
Netherlands
France
Germany
United Kingdom
Japan
USA #3
#6
top 5
#1
#1
#6
#1
#1
top 5
top 10
#3
#1
#2
#3
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M&A: easy to buy, difficult to make it successful
November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 22
challenging to manage emotions
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November 17, 2015 Capital Markets Day 2015 23