financial analysis - china railway group ltd. offers transportation systems construction services....

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19.03.2013 Ticker: China Railway Group Ltd Benchmark: Currency: Hong Kong: 390, Currency: HKD HANG SENG INDEX (HSI) Sector: Industrials Industry: Construction & Engineering Year: Telephone 86-10-51845717 Revenue (M) Business Segments in HKD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in HKD Sales (M) Website www.crec.cn No of Employees Infrastructure Construction 464016 China 1 Address No 1 Xinghuo Road Fengtai District, Beijing, 100070 China Other Businesses (Trading of Infra. Construct 44729 Share Price Performance in HKD Property Development 20423 Price 3.88 1M Return -9.3% Engineering Equipment and Component Man 10987 52 Week High 4.98 6M Return 14.1% Survey, Design and Consulting Service (Infra. 10067 52 Week Low 2.44 52 Wk Return 46.1% Reconciliation -17527 52 Wk Beta 1.23 YTD Return -14.3% Adjustment Credit Ratings Bloomberg - S&P BBB+ Date 23.01.2013 Outlook STABLE Moody's - Date - Outlook - Fitch BBB+ Date 23.01.2013 Outlook STABLE Valuation Ratios 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E P/E 94.6x 16.5x 13.7x 6.3x 9.4x 8.3x 7.4x EV/EBIT 18.3x 16.9x 12.4x 10.4x - - - EV/EBITDA 12.5x 11.0x 8.4x 6.9x 9.8x 8.8x 8.2x P/S 0.4x 0.3x 0.2x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x P/B 1.8x 1.9x 1.5x 0.6x 0.9x 0.8x 0.7x Div Yield - 1.2% 1.2% 2.4% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% Profitability Ratios % 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Gross Margin 7.5 6.1 6.0 7.3 8.3 8.4 8.5 EBITDA Margin 4.4 3.9 3.4 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.1 Operating Margin 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 Profit Margin 0.5 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 Return on Assets 0.5 2.4 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 Return on Equity 2.0 11.7 11.5 9.6 9.3 9.7 10.0 Leverage and Coverage Ratios 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 Current Ratio 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 Current Capitalization in HKD Quick Ratio 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 21299.9 EBIT/Interest 2.0 2.4 3.2 2.0 Market Capitalization (M) 77362.4 Tot Debt/Capital 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 Cash and ST Investments (M) 81337.4 Tot Debt/Equity 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.6 Total Debt (M) 219853.4 Eff Tax Rate % 25.8 14.8 22.2 27.6 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0 LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0 Investments (M) 11789.5 Enterprise Value (M) 227667.8 China Railway Group Ltd. offers transportation systems construction services. The Company builds railroads, roads, tunnels, and bridges. 390 HK 532'695 291'772 Company Analysis - Overview 81% 8% 4% 2% 2% 3% Infrastructure Construction Other Businesses (Trading of Infra. Construction Materials) Property Development Engineering Equipment and Component Manufacturing Survey, Design and Consulting Service (Infra. Construction Proje Reconciliation 100% China Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

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Financial Analysis - China Railway Group Ltd. offers transportation systems construction services. The Company builds railroads, roads, tunnels, and bridges

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Page 1: Financial Analysis - China Railway Group Ltd. offers transportation systems construction services. The Company builds railroads, roads, tunnels, and bridges

19.03.2013

Ticker: China Railway Group Ltd Benchmark:

Currency: Hong Kong: 390, Currency: HKD HANG SENG INDEX (HSI)

Sector: Industrials Industry: Construction & Engineering Year:

Telephone 86-10-51845717 Revenue (M) Business Segments in HKD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in HKD Sales (M)

Website www.crec.cn No of Employees Infrastructure Construction 464016 China 1

Address No 1 Xinghuo Road Fengtai District, Beijing, 100070 China Other Businesses (Trading of Infra. Construction Materials)44729

Share Price Performance in HKD Property Development 20423

Price 3.88 1M Return -9.3% Engineering Equipment and Component Manufacturing 10987

52 Week High 4.98 6M Return 14.1% Survey, Design and Consulting Service (Infra. Construction Proje10067

52 Week Low 2.44 52 Wk Return 46.1% Reconciliation -17527

52 Wk Beta 1.23 YTD Return -14.3% Adjustment

Credit Ratings

Bloomberg -

S&P BBB+ Date 23.01.2013 Outlook STABLE

Moody's - Date - Outlook -

Fitch BBB+ Date 23.01.2013 Outlook STABLE

Valuation Ratios

12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

P/E 94.6x 16.5x 13.7x 6.3x 9.4x 8.3x 7.4x

EV/EBIT 18.3x 16.9x 12.4x 10.4x - - -

EV/EBITDA 12.5x 11.0x 8.4x 6.9x 9.8x 8.8x 8.2x

P/S 0.4x 0.3x 0.2x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x

P/B 1.8x 1.9x 1.5x 0.6x 0.9x 0.8x 0.7x

Div Yield - 1.2% 1.2% 2.4% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2%

Profitability Ratios %

12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Gross Margin 7.5 6.1 6.0 7.3 8.3 8.4 8.5

EBITDA Margin 4.4 3.9 3.4 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.1

Operating Margin 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0

Profit Margin 0.5 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6

Return on Assets 0.5 2.4 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7

Return on Equity 2.0 11.7 11.5 9.6 9.3 9.7 10.0

Leverage and Coverage Ratios

12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11

Current Ratio 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 Current Capitalization in HKD

Quick Ratio 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 21299.9

EBIT/Interest 2.0 2.4 3.2 2.0 Market Capitalization (M) 77362.4

Tot Debt/Capital 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 Cash and ST Investments (M) 81337.4

Tot Debt/Equity 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.6 Total Debt (M) 219853.4

Eff Tax Rate % 25.8 14.8 22.2 27.6 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0

LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0

Investments (M) 11789.5

Enterprise Value (M) 227667.8

China Railway Group Ltd. offers transportation systems construction services. The

Company builds railroads, roads, tunnels, and bridges.

390 HK

532'695

291'772

Company Analysis - Overview

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 2: Financial Analysis - China Railway Group Ltd. offers transportation systems construction services. The Company builds railroads, roads, tunnels, and bridges

China Railway Group Ltd

Target price in HKD

Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date

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Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 3: Financial Analysis - China Railway Group Ltd. offers transportation systems construction services. The Company builds railroads, roads, tunnels, and bridges

19.03.2013

China Railway Group Ltd

Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution

Shares Outstanding (M) 21299.9 United States 52.21%

Float 100.0% China 22.80%

Short Interest (M) Switzerland 7.87%

Short Interest as % of Float Britain 4.28%

Days to Cover Shorts Luxembourg 3.51%

Institutional Ownership 39.27% Hong Kong 2.26%

Retail Ownership 60.73% Japan 1.93%

Insider Ownership 0.00% Others 5.15%

Institutional Ownership Distribution

Investment Advisor 58.98%

Government 22.78%

Unclassified 7.37%

Mutual Fund Manager 5.61%

Pricing data is in HKD Others 5.27%

Top 20 Owners:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country

SOCIAL SECURITY FUND 382'490'000 0 1'484'061'200 9.09% 31.12.2010 Co File CHINA

BLACKROCK 265'676'530 7'057'281 1'030'824'936 6.31% 15.03.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

JP MORGAN 209'525'317 -1'308'000 812'958'230 4.98% 28.09.2012 ULT-AGG

VANGUARD GROUP INC 203'800'355 -9'200 790'745'377 4.84% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

LEHMAN BROTHERS FINA 123'652'010 0 479'769'799 2.94% 31.12.2010 Co File SWITZERLAND

LEHMAN BROTHERS INTE 59'870'550 0 232'297'734 1.42% 31.12.2010 Co File BRITAIN

GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OT 46'799'000 0 181'580'120 1.11% 31.05.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

HANG SENG INVESTMENT 34'148'451 0 132'495'990 0.81% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG HONG KONG

LEHMAN BROTHERS HOLD 26'551'000 0 103'017'880 0.63% 31.12.2010 Co File UNITED STATES

BANK OF NEW YORK MEL 23'623'273 -4'178'000 91'658'299 0.56% 15.03.2013 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

FMR LLC 22'799'019 -38'429'666 88'460'194 0.54% 31.01.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

ROBECO INVESTOR SERV 22'662'612 11'662'612 87'930'935 0.54% 31.01.2013 MF-AGG LUXEMBOURG

ING INVESTMENT MANAG 17'498'917 57'160 67'895'798 0.42% 31.01.2013 MF-AGG NETHERLANDS

ING INTERNATIONAL AD 11'577'000 -693'000 44'918'760 0.28% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG LUXEMBOURG

BNP PARIBAS INV PART 11'441'000 -528'000 44'391'080 0.27% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG FRANCE

STATE STREET 10'873'408 0 42'188'823 0.26% 18.03.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

DAIWA SB INVESTMENTS 9'296'000 9'238'000 36'068'480 0.22% 24.07.2012 MF-AGG JAPAN

JP MORGAN ASSET MGMT 9'175'000 0 35'599'000 0.22% 26.10.2012 MF-AGG JAPAN

DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV 9'020'000 0 34'997'600 0.21% 31.07.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

FIDELITY INVT ASSET 5'611'000 5'611'000 21'770'680 0.13% 28.09.2012 MF-AGG SOUTH KOREA

Top 5 Insiders:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source

Company Analysis - Ownership

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 4: Financial Analysis - China Railway Group Ltd. offers transportation systems construction services. The Company builds railroads, roads, tunnels, and bridges

China Railway Group Ltd

Financial information is in HKD (M)

Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Income Statement

Revenue 82'873 106'716 150'721 183'335 254'685 379'032 523'651 532'695 573'639 627'862 678'178

- Cost of Goods Sold 75'522 97'699 138'900 170'015 235'566 355'837 492'492 493'843

Gross Income 5'751 7'943 11'821 13'321 19'119 23'195 31'159 38'852 47'669 52'489 57'849

- Selling, General & Admin Expenses 5'924 7'111 8'573 8'908 11'427 14'613 20'199 26'384

(Research & Dev Costs) 738 2'397 6'439

Operating Income 2'593 2'832 3'248 4'412 7'692 9'554 12'164 15'190 16'759 18'466 20'519

- Interest Expense 456 808 1'109 1'750 2'603 2'520 2'669 4'865

- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 32 -12 16 252 4'639 -1'235 -428 -112

- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -18 -10 -758 -2'128 -1'716 -1'583 -2'186 -1'607

Pretax Income 370 790 2'882 4'539 2'167 9'851 12'109 12'044 12'903 14'658 16'107

- Income Tax Expense 114 241 620 871 559 1'459 2'683 3'322

Income Before XO Items 2'009 1'804 2'262 3'668 1'607 8'392 9'426 8'721

- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

- Minority Interests -71 246 658 356 358 591 933 663

Diluted EPS Before XO Items 0.37 0.40 0.38

Net Income Adjusted* 7'815 8'598 8'059 8'726 9'942 11'013

EPS Adjusted 0.37 0.40 0.37 0.41 0.47 0.52

Dividends Per Share 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.08

Payout Ratio % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.5 15.8 15.3 0.16 0.16 0.16

Total Shares Outstanding 21'300 21'300 21'300 21'300 21'300

Diluted Shares Outstanding 21'300 21'300 21'300

EBITDA 2'829 3'571 5'657 7'442 11'249 14'689 18'025 22'860 23'461 26'211 28'000

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.

Equivalent Estimates

Company Analysis - Financials I/IV

Fiscal Year

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 5: Financial Analysis - China Railway Group Ltd. offers transportation systems construction services. The Company builds railroads, roads, tunnels, and bridges

Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Balance Sheet

Total Current Assets 60631.0661 78102.3182 117368.119 183986.132 218346.361 270322.471 352365.675 443948.901

+ Cash & Near Cash Items 12'539 16'516 31'140 63'001 56'065 56'139 64'788 74'284

+ Short Term Investments 213 149 10 129 108 92 180 74

+ Accounts & Notes Receivable 19'649 24'527 31'171 43'272 57'551 77'690 98'130 122'168

+ Inventories 14'762 21'359 33'160 52'779 72'246 93'550 140'327 187'022

+ Other Current Assets 13'468 15'552 21'887 24'805 32'377 42'851 48'939 60'400

Total Long-Term Assets 19'380 21'570 25'582 47'435 67'899 84'464 109'540 133'716

+ Long Term Investments 1'356 1'995 2'643 4'247 6'869 9'006 14'918 18'471

Gross Fixed Assets 39'745 49'544 60'721 72'514 86'683

Accumulated Depreciation 13'002 16'024 19'015 23'732 29'719

+ Net Fixed Assets 12'993 13'993 16'954 26'743 33'520 41'707 48'782 56'964

+ Other Long Term Assets 5'031 5'582 5'985 16'445 27'510 33'751 45'840 58'282

Total Current Liabilities 59'722 78'319 118'287 145'919 187'976 239'059 312'554 376'725

+ Accounts Payable 22'070 28'175 41'651 54'335 72'153 107'651 161'286 196'134

+ Short Term Borrowings 11'514 15'752 27'867 31'602 46'353 32'979 48'361 69'872

+ Other Short Term Liabilities 26'138 34'393 48'769 59'983 69'470 98'429 102'906 110'719

Total Long Term Liabilities 13'516 13'266 14'841 21'453 28'742 40'109 61'927 100'858

+ Long Term Borrowings 3'445 3'428 5'083 10'944 19'109 31'132 52'442 91'109

+ Other Long Term Borrowings 10'070 9'838 9'758 10'286 9'633 8'976 9'485 9'749

Total Liabilities 73'237 91'585 133'128 167'372 216'718 279'168 374'481 477'584

+ Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0

+ Minority Interest 3'472 4'107 3'246 4'237 5'596 6'155 8'422 11'503

+ Share Capital & APIC 54'900 58'321 62'402 64'812 67'742

+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity 3'302 3'981 6'576 4'913 5'453 7'061 14'191 20'838

Total Shareholders Equity 6'774 8'088 9'822 64'049 69'371 75'618 87'425 100'082

Total Liabilities & Equity 80'011 99'673 142'950 231'421 286'089 354'786 461'906 577'665

Book Value Per Share 2.81 2.99 3.26 3.71 4.16 4.53 5.04 5.47

Tangible Book Value Per Share 2.39 2.19 2.20 2.29 2.18

Company Analysis - Financials II/IV

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 6: Financial Analysis - China Railway Group Ltd. offers transportation systems construction services. The Company builds railroads, roads, tunnels, and bridges

Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Cash Flows

Net Income 328 304 1'604 3'312 1'250 7'801 8'493 8'059 8'785 10'081 10'838

+ Depreciation & Amortization 1'989 1'994 2'409 3'030 3'557 5'136 5'861 7'670

+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments 238 349 196 -1'245 3'327 -2'858 -728 -2'496

+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital -4'885 76 2'278 -7'205 -9'581 8'270 -14'867 -35'265

Cash From Operating Activities -2'330 2'722 6'487 -2'109 -1'447 18'348 -1'241 -22'032

+ Disposal of Fixed Assets 636 664 843 124 751 1'923 1'107 1'213

+ Capital Expenditures -3'403 -3'400 -6'839 -11'312 -16'325 -11'029 -10'826 -10'074 -13'699 -13'716 -13'533

+ Increase in Investments -1'400 -1'036 -2'201 -714 -4'215 -5'756

+ Decrease in Investments 32 366 289 599 1'627 708

+ Other Investing Activities 64 9 -279 -5'569 -8'559 -10'489 -7'971 -1'758

Cash From Investing Activities -4'070 -3'397 -8'185 -16'756 -24'133 -19'709 -20'280 -15'666

+ Dividends Paid 0 -4'301 -1'411

+ Change in Short Term Borrowings

+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings 13'874 15'383 35'843 42'732 60'420 64'667 80'577 109'352

+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -7'840 -11'761 -20'978 -45'102 -44'687 -61'392 -49'145 -63'680

+ Increase in Capital Stocks 0 0 0

+ Decrease in Capital Stocks 0 0 0

+ Other Financing Activities 286 314 85 48'971 -1'277 692 660 -146

Cash From Financing Activities 6'320 3'936 14'950 46'601 14'456 3'968 27'791 44'115

Net Changes in Cash -81 3'261 13'252 27'736 -11'124 2'606 6'270 6'417

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) -5'733 -678 -351 -13'421 -17'772 7'319 -12'067 -32'106 -5'520 1'514 -306

Free Cash Flow To Firm -5'417 -116 519 -12'006 -15'841 9'465 -9'990 -28'583

Free Cash Flow To Equity 3'608 15'357 -15'666 20'471 14'778

Free Cash Flow per Share -1.00 -0.83 0.34 -0.57 -1.51

Company Analysis - Financials III/IV

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 7: Financial Analysis - China Railway Group Ltd. offers transportation systems construction services. The Company builds railroads, roads, tunnels, and bridges

Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios

Price Earnings 41.9x 94.6x 16.5x 13.7x 6.3x 9.4x 8.3x 7.4x

EV to EBIT 46.2x 18.3x 16.9x 12.4x 10.4x

EV to EBITDA 27.4x 12.5x 11.0x 8.4x 6.9x 9.8x 8.8x 8.2x

Price to Sales 0.8x 0.4x 0.3x 0.2x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x

Price to Book 3.8x 1.8x 1.9x 1.5x 0.6x 0.9x 0.8x 0.7x

Dividend Yield 0.0% 1.2% 1.2% 2.4% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2%

Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin 7.0% 7.5% 7.8% 7.3% 7.5% 6.1% 6.0% 7.3% 8.3% 8.4% 8.5%

EBITDA Margin 3.5% 3.4% 3.8% 4.1% 4.4% 3.9% 3.4% 4.3% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1%

Operating Margin 1.0% 1.5% 2.2% 2.4% 3.0% 2.5% 2.3% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0%

Profit Margin 0.4% 0.3% 1.1% 1.8% 0.5% 2.1% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6%

Return on Assets 0.3% 1.3% 1.8% 0.5% 2.4% 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7%

Return on Equity 8.3% 30.7% 10.3% 2.0% 11.7% 11.5% 9.6% 9.3% 9.7% 10.0%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios

Current Ratio 1.02 1.00 0.99 1.26 1.16 1.13 1.13 1.18

Quick Ratio 0.54 0.53 0.53 0.73 0.60 0.56 0.52 0.52

Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) 1.84 1.95 2.50 1.95 1.96 2.42 3.19 1.99

Tot Debt/Capital 0.69 0.70 0.77 0.40 0.49 0.46 0.54 0.62

Tot Debt/Equity 2.21 2.37 3.35 0.66 0.94 0.85 1.15 1.61

Others

Asset Turnover 1.18 1.25 0.99 0.97 1.18 1.30 1.03

Accounts Receivable Turnover 4.80 5.45 4.98 4.99 5.61 6.02 4.85

Accounts Payable Turnover 4.15 4.32 3.93 3.92 4.20 4.02 2.99

Inventory Turnover 5.43 5.14 4.01 3.72 4.30 4.26 3.03

Effective Tax Rate 30.8% 30.5% 21.5% 19.2% 25.8% 14.8% 22.2% 27.6%

Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 8: Financial Analysis - China Railway Group Ltd. offers transportation systems construction services. The Company builds railroads, roads, tunnels, and bridges

CHINA RAIL GR-HCHINA COM CONS-

HCHINA RAIL CN-H CHINA STATE -A ZHEJIANG EXPRESS SHIMIZU CORP BOUYGUES SA

HYUNDAI

ENG&CONSZHUZHOU CSR CSR CORP LTD -A

12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2012 03/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2011 12/2011

4.98 8.43 9.54 4.18 7.00 341.00 24.33 86'200.00 30.25 5.24

10.01.2013 23.01.2013 15.01.2013 18.02.2013 11.01.2013 15.01.2013 19.03.2012 20.03.2012 02.01.2013 05.02.2013

2.48 5.75 4.81 2.90 4.80 223.00 17.54 55'600.00 16.38 3.75

30.03.2012 05.09.2012 30.03.2012 24.09.2012 18.05.2012 14.11.2012 16.11.2012 26.07.2012 26.07.2012 27.09.2012

16'696'500 12'782'070 7'563'500 96'668'255 2'266'259 2'076'000 439'573 381'724 4'094'776 22'807'447

3.88 6.69 7.26 3.41 6.47 309.00 22.28 64'200.00 22.90 4.34

-22.1% -20.6% -23.9% -18.4% -7.6% -9.4% -8.4% -25.5% -24.3% -17.2%

56.5% 16.3% 50.9% 17.6% 34.8% 38.6% 27.0% 15.5% 39.8% 15.7%

21'299.9 14'825.0 12'337.5 30'000.0 4'343.1 784.7 324.0 111.4 1'084.3 11'840.0

77'363 97'971 80'930 102'300 28'100 243'651 7'109 7'149'040 24'829 60'085

130'576.0 106'045.0 100'663.6 133'022.5 1'462.6 375'812.0 8'642.0 1'566'738.0 647.9 27'040.8

- - - - - - - 494.0 - -

9'330.0 10'739.0 970.4 29'331.8 3'420.6 2'738.0 1'500.0 - 121.0 5'526.3

60'314.0 45'170.0 80'520.6 94'380.3 6'908.5 209'793.0 4'487.0 1'260'966.0 2'158.8 23'104.3

183'799 154'416 75'857 210'983 19'899 452'356 12'764 7'455'306 19'909 78'612

LFY 442'216.0 294'281.0 443'319.3 463'876.8 6'700.3 1'336'194.0 33'547.0 10'433'442.0 7'079.1 79'517.0

LTM 418'599.0 280'093.0 417'448.9 463'876.8 6'700.3 1'374'435.0 33'547.0 10'433'442.0 7'079.1 81'803.7

CY+1 459'520.7 295'062.1 467'694.0 576'124.5 7'104.4 1'407'840.0 33'516.2 12'580'089.0 6'545.9 88'279.7

CY+2 502'956.7 329'738.3 508'533.0 671'681.0 7'330.8 1'387'306.8 33'717.1 14'137'208.7 8'114.9 102'099.0

LFY 0.4x 0.6x 0.2x 0.3x 2.3x 0.3x 0.4x 0.8x 1.9x 1.0x

LTM 0.4x 0.6x 0.2x 0.3x 2.3x 0.3x 0.4x 0.8x 1.9x 1.0x

CY+1 0.3x 0.6x 0.2x - 3.0x 0.3x 0.4x 0.5x 2.9x 0.6x

CY+2 0.3x 0.5x 0.2x - 2.8x 0.3x 0.4x 0.5x 2.3x 0.5x

LFY 18'977.0 21'465.0 21'822.9 28'914.4 3'511.9 27'006.0 2'890.0 433'227.0 1'402.0 7'310.0

LTM 19'609.0 22'252.0 22'290.2 28'914.4 3'454.4 21'238.0 2'890.0 433'227.0 1'402.0 7'352.0

CY+1 18'794.1 24'549.0 22'322.3 - 3'523.8 24'397.0 2'884.9 932'080.5 1'253.8 7'279.8

CY+2 20'996.6 27'984.5 24'268.5 - 3'591.9 27'690.7 2'939.0 1'091'510.0 1'604.2 8'766.7

LFY 8.5x 7.7x 3.7x 5.4x 4.4x 14.9x 4.5x 18.7x 9.7x 11.0x

LTM 8.2x 7.4x 3.6x 5.4x 4.5x 19.0x 4.5x 18.7x 9.7x 11.0x

CY+1 8.2x 6.6x 3.8x - 6.0x 18.4x 4.6x 7.3x 14.9x 7.6x

CY+2 7.5x 6.3x 3.7x - 5.7x 16.0x 4.5x 5.9x 11.5x 6.4x

LFY 0.32 0.76 0.68 0.43 0.42 1.54 2.00 - 1.09 0.33

LTM 0.31 0.72 0.61 0.45 0.39 -1.87 2.01 3'116.00 1.09 0.31

CY+1 0.33 0.71 0.67 0.52 0.42 7.54 2.46 5'294.18 0.89 0.29

CY+2 0.38 0.79 0.74 0.61 0.41 11.59 2.71 6'912.81 1.18 0.35

LFY 10.1x 7.4x 9.5x 7.6x 13.3x - 11.1x 20.6x 16.8x 14.2x

LTM 9.8x 7.8x - 7.9x 12.5x - 11.1x - 16.8x -

CY+1 9.4x 7.5x 8.7x 6.6x 12.4x 41.0x 9.0x 12.1x 20.5x 14.8x

CY+2 8.3x 6.8x 7.9x 5.6x 12.5x 26.7x 8.2x 9.3x 15.5x 12.5x

1 Year (3.1%) 7.9% (2.8%) 30.5% (1.2%) 2.5% 2.6% 3.3% 21.4% 24.0%

5 Year 23.0% 17.3% - 29.4% (0.8%) 1.4% 1.6% 13.7% 42.8% 28.5%

1 Year 20.9% 16.8% 51.3% 38.9% - (11.7%) (10.5%) (15.7%) 10.7% 47.9%

5 Year 26.7% 21.2% 34.4% 40.4% 0.8% (14.6%) (3.3%) 2.4% 33.9% 36.6%

LTM 4.7% 7.9% 5.3% 6.2% 51.0% 1.5% 8.6% 4.2% 19.8% 9.0%

CY+1 4.1% 8.3% 4.8% - 49.6% 1.7% 8.6% 7.4% 19.2% 8.2%

CY+2 4.2% 8.5% 4.8% - 49.0% 2.0% 8.7% 7.7% 19.8% 8.6%

Total Debt / Equity % 181.7% 151.0% 155.5% 149.3% 9.6% 123.5% 100.7% 34.7% 12.2% 119.9% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Total Debt / Capital % 61.7% 56.7% 60.5% 52.9% 7.3% 55.0% 46.2% 25.8% 10.6% 49.1% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Total Debt / EBITDA 7.676x 5.938x 4.627x 4.601x 0.304x 16.394x 2.990x 3.616x 0.462x 3.136x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Net Debt / EBITDA 4.897x 3.353x 1.024x 1.336x -1.749x 9.154x 1.438x 0.706x -1.078x 1.478x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

EBITDA / Int. Expense 2.989x 4.776x 5.926x 5.620x 43.875x 6.084x 8.210x 7.115x 42.973x 6.888x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

S&P LT Credit Rating BBB+ - - - - NR BBB+ - - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

S&P LT Credit Rating Date 23.01.2013 - - - - 09.01.2007 30.11.2011 - - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Moody's LT Credit Rating - - - - - - (P)A3 - - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Moody's LT Credit Rating Date - - - - - - 26.01.2012 - - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

52-Week High Date

52-Week Low

Latest Fiscal Year:

52-Week High

Total Debt

Market Capitalization

Daily Volume

52-Week Low % Change

Current Price (3/dd/yy)

52-Week High % Change

Cash and Equivalents

EBITDA

EV/EBITDA

Enterprise Value

Valuation

Preferred Stock

52-Week Low Date

Minority Interest

Total Common Shares (M)

P/E

Revenue Growth

Total Revenue

EV/Total Revenue

EPS

EBITDA Growth

EBITDA Margin

Credit Ratings

Leverage/Coverage Ratios

Company Analysis - Peers Comparision

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |