financial analysis - shanghai construction co., ltd. undertakes a variety …
TRANSCRIPT
19.03.2013
Ticker: Shanghai Construction Co Ltd Benchmark:
Currency: Shanghai: 600170, Currency: CNY SHANGHAI SE A SHARE INDX (SHASHR)
Sector: Industrials Industry: Construction & Engineering Year:
Telephone 86-21-68872178 Revenue (M) Business Segments in CNY Sales (M) Geographic Segments in CNY Sales (M)
Website www.shconstruction.cn No of Employees Public Facilities Construction 22847 China 80009
Address 33 Fushan Road Pudong, Shanghai, 200120 China Civil Building Construction 22686 Other Countries 2583
Share Price Performance in CNY Government Building Construction 8889 Other Operating Income 265
Price 7.27 1M Return -7.4% General Contract Project 8166 Sales Tax & Surcharges -2113
52 Week High 9.59 6M Return -12.2% Sales of Concrete Material 4028 Russia
52 Week Low 5.18 52 Wk Return 34.9% Industrial Building Construction 3675 Eastern China
52 Wk Beta 1.17 YTD Return -6.9% Design Services 2278 Maucao
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg -
S&P - Date - Outlook -
Moody's - Date - Outlook -
Fitch - Date - Outlook -
Valuation Ratios
12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E
P/E 21.5x 21.8x 15.5x 7.6x 10.5x 9.4x -
EV/EBIT 2.4x - 3.1x 1.0x - - -
EV/EBITDA 0.8x - 1.7x 0.5x - - -
P/S 0.2x 0.3x 0.2x 0.1x - - -
P/B 1.7x 1.6x 1.6x 1.0x - - -
Div Yield 1.4% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% - - -
Profitability Ratios %
12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E
Gross Margin 2.6 4.0 4.4 4.7 - - -
EBITDA Margin 1.9 3.1 2.5 2.9 - - -
Operating Margin 0.6 1.5 1.4 1.7 - - -
Profit Margin 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 - - -
Return on Assets 1.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 - - -
Return on Equity 8.2 13.9 13.5 13.8 14.3 14.2 -
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11
Current Ratio 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Current Capitalization in CNY
Quick Ratio 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 2312.7
EBIT/Interest - 7.1 6.3 3.3 Market Capitalization (M) 16813.5
Tot Debt/Capital 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Cash and ST Investments (M) 20145.5
Tot Debt/Equity 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 Total Debt (M) 14645.2
Eff Tax Rate % 20.8 23.7 21.9 20.1 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0
LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0
Investments (M) 1129.7
Enterprise Value (M) 12442.9
Shanghai Construction Co., Ltd. undertakes a variety of construction projects. The
Company constructs residential buildings, industrial buildings, municipal buildings, and
public infrastructure facilities, as well as provides engineering and renovation services.
600170 CH
80'743
24'324
Company Analysis - Overview
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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
Shanghai Construction Co Ltd
Target price in CNY
Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date
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Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings
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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
19.03.2013
Shanghai Construction Co Ltd
Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution
Shares Outstanding (M) 2312.7 China 99.32%
Float 26.6% Unknown Country 0.54%
Short Interest (M) Hong Kong 0.14%
Short Interest as % of Float Japan 0.00%
Days to Cover Shorts Others 0.00%
Institutional Ownership 73.98% 0.00%
Retail Ownership 26.02% 0.00%
Insider Ownership 0.01%
Institutional Ownership Distribution
Government 97.89%
Investment Advisor 1.46%
Other 0.53%
Corporation 0.10%
Pricing data is in CNY Others 0.01%
Top 20 Owners:
Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country
SHANGHAI CONSTRUCTIO 1'685'602'974 0 12'254'333'621 72.88% 31.12.2011 Co File CHINA
XU JIANMIN 5'359'020 0 38'960'075 0.23% 31.12.2011 Co File n/a
HARVEST FUND MANAGEM 3'661'082 -135'300 26'616'066 0.16% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA
GUOTAI JUNAN SECURIT 2'600'402 0 18'904'923 0.11% 31.12.2011 Co File CHINA
FULLGOAL FUND MANAGE 2'480'945 2'092'757 18'036'470 0.11% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA
CHINA ASSET MANAGEME 2'465'400 -600'000 17'923'458 0.11% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA
WU YINSHU 1'920'500 0 13'962'035 0.08% 31.12.2011 Co File n/a
CHINA ASSET MANAGEME 1'888'700 0 13'730'849 0.08% 18.03.2013 MF-AGG HONG KONG
MAO LIHONG 1'800'000 0 13'086'000 0.08% 31.12.2011 Co File n/a
YUNNAN MACHINERY & E 1'788'400 0 13'001'668 0.08% 31.12.2011 Co File CHINA
AEGON INDUSTRIAL FUN 1'318'116 1'018'074 9'582'703 0.06% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA
CHINA UNIVERSAL ASSE 1'270'034 0 9'233'147 0.05% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA
BOSHI FUND MANAGEMEN 1'225'030 -328'622 8'905'968 0.05% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA
E FUND MANAGEMENT 995'110 44'040 7'234'450 0.04% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA
DACHENG FUND MANAGME 847'136 -5'707'198 6'158'679 0.04% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA
GUOTAI ASSET MANAGEM 703'455 -36'083 5'114'118 0.03% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA
CCB PRINCIPAL ASSET 551'040 -80'174 4'006'061 0.02% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA
ICBC CREDIT SUISSE A 515'540 -42'400 3'747'976 0.02% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA
HUAAN FUND MANAGEMEN 473'102 -13'220 3'439'452 0.02% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA
BOSERA FUND MANAGEME 470'305 470'305 3'419'117 0.02% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA
Top 5 Insiders:
Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source
CHANGSONG XIAO 41'600 302'432 0.00% 31.12.2011 Co File
ZHIQUAN JIANG 25'086 182'375 0.00% 31.12.2011 Co File
GUOLIN LIU 25'084 182'361 0.00% 31.12.2011 Co File
ZHENG XU 25'084 182'361 0.00% 31.12.2011 Co File
ZHONGWEI FAN 25'084 182'361 0.00% 31.12.2011 Co File
Company Analysis - Ownership
Ownership Type
74%
26%
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Geographic Ownership
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Institutional Ownership
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TOP 20 ALL
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
Shanghai Construction Co Ltd
Financial information is in CNY (M)
Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E
Income Statement
Revenue 7'766 8'770 10'561 13'710 17'727 20'364 24'500 29'699 54'258 73'289 80'743
- Cost of Goods Sold 7'335 8'335 10'097 13'128 17'097 19'754 23'871 28'937 52'062 70'097 76'967
Gross Income 431 435 464 582 630 609 629 762 2'197 3'193 3'776
- Selling, General & Admin Expenses 294 299 324 393 436 404 468 575 1'394 2'153 2'441
(Research & Dev Costs) 67 71
Operating Income 151 150 149 195 215 206 161 187 803 1'040 1'335
- Interest Expense 18 14 27 34 31 0 114 92 184
- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 0
- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -88 -93 -90 -96 -103 -112 -178 -178 -397 -581 -705
Pretax Income 221 229 212 257 286 318 339 365 1'080 1'522 1'855
- Income Tax Expense 34 34 37 45 51 43 38 76 256 333 373
Income Before XO Items 187 195 174 212 235 275 301 289 824 1'189 1'482
- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
- Minority Interests 2 2 -9 3 4 18 1 -14 87 105 125
Diluted EPS Before XO Items 0.36 0.47 0.59
Net Income Adjusted* 301 302 359 916 1'357
EPS Adjusted 0.21 0.21 0.25 0.44 0.59 0.69 0.77
Dividends Per Share 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.05
Payout Ratio % 32.4 46.6 48.9 0.0 54.5 42.1 35.9 29.8 12.2 14.4 8.5
Total Shares Outstanding 1'439 1'439 1'439 1'439 1'439 1'439 1'439 1'439 1'439 2'084 2'313
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1'439 1'439 1'439 2'084 2'084 2'313
EBITDA 274 210 271 314 514 489 468 558 1'672 1'854 2'353
*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.
Equivalent Estimates
Company Analysis - Financials I/IV
Fiscal Year
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E
Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets 5347.03223 5739.69092 5509.1499 5593.29199 7375.70215 9991.60598 12467.394 15502.1006 32643.0696 42782.9726 54288.6234
+ Cash & Near Cash Items 2'069 2'473 2'346 2'164 3'126 5'036 6'406 7'444 15'703 18'257 18'877
+ Short Term Investments 0 0 0 0 129 429 0 0 1 543 801
+ Accounts & Notes Receivable 855 959 1'251 1'426 1'699 1'815 2'097 2'941 4'954 6'576 8'781
+ Inventories 213 172 1'803 229 2'190 2'302 3'078 4'325 9'601 13'673 22'521
+ Other Current Assets 2'211 2'135 109 1'774 231 409 887 792 2'384 3'734 3'309
Total Long-Term Assets 1'215 3'391 3'831 4'069 4'028 3'758 3'327 3'527 7'869 11'422 13'972
+ Long Term Investments 574 705 326 712 12 449 481 464 921 1'152 1'262
Gross Fixed Assets 768 3'036 3'391 3'312 3'355 3'836 1'358 1'607 6'142 8'446 9'494
Accumulated Depreciation 423 447 510 555 664 1'049 801 933 2'663 2'876 3'324
+ Net Fixed Assets 345 2'589 2'881 2'757 2'691 2'787 557 674 3'478 5'570 6'170
+ Other Long Term Assets 296 97 624 600 1'325 523 2'289 2'389 3'470 4'700 6'540
Total Current Liabilities 3'785 4'614 4'580 4'919 6'672 8'733 10'757 13'817 30'849 40'195 50'929
+ Accounts Payable 824 1'146 1'198 1'227 1'763 2'592 3'190 4'092 8'429 10'720 12'587
+ Short Term Borrowings 199 388 129 164 122 129 203 93 1'741 3'059 4'775
+ Other Short Term Liabilities 2'762 3'081 3'254 3'527 4'787 6'011 7'364 9'633 20'678 26'416 33'568
Total Long Term Liabilities 5 1'423 1'346 1'215 1'093 1'176 1'010 1'016 2'133 3'884 5'930
+ Long Term Borrowings 0 1'420 1'320 1'200 1'080 960 840 875 1'292 2'879 4'932
+ Other Long Term Borrowings 5 3 26 15 13 216 170 141 841 1'005 998
Total Liabilities 3'790 6'037 5'926 6'133 7'765 9'908 11'767 14'833 32'982 44'079 56'859
+ Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Minority Interest 57 275 412 408 412 431 433 417 695 895 987
+ Share Capital & APIC 1'887 2'007 2'007 2'007 2'007 2'007 2'007 2'007 4'100 5'488 5'489
+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity 828 812 995 1'114 1'219 1'404 1'588 1'773 2'735 3'743 4'926
Total Shareholders Equity 2'772 3'094 3'414 3'529 3'638 3'842 4'028 4'197 7'530 10'126 11'402
Total Liabilities & Equity 6'562 9'131 9'341 9'662 11'403 13'750 15'795 19'030 40'512 54'205 68'260
Book Value Per Share 1.89 1.96 2.09 2.17 2.24 2.37 2.50 2.63 4.75 4.43 4.50
Tangible Book Value Per Share 1.88 1.95 2.06 2.15 2.22 2.35 0.97 1.16 3.35 3.49 3.64
Company Analysis - Financials II/IV
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E
Cash Flows
Net Income 185 193 184 208 231 256 301 302 736 1'084 1'357
+ Depreciation & Amortization 123 61 122 119 299 283 307 371 869 814 1'018
+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments 17 104 138 147 30 -141 -136 -144 -232 -162 -348
+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital 580 223 439 146 1'105 1'413 793 1'124 4'700 -2'892 -4'910
Cash From Operating Activities 905 580 883 620 1'665 1'811 1'264 1'653 6'074 -1'157 -2'882
+ Disposal of Fixed Assets 153 4 8 22 11 4 23 19 50 55 49
+ Capital Expenditures -190 -692 -606 -570 -698 -287 -296 -715 -2'122 -1'633 -2'155
+ Increase in Investments -19
+ Decrease in Investments 446
+ Other Investing Activities -5 43 -76 -26 270 495 607 291 395 -84 1'165
Cash From Investing Activities -42 -645 -674 -575 -417 213 334 -405 -1'251 -1'662 -942
+ Dividends Paid -85 -126 -107 -108 -57 -60 -100
+ Change in Short Term Borrowings 146
+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings 789 0 22 0 30 20 1'010 1'436 3'567 5'653
+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings 0 -236 -346 -570 -150 -150 -120 -1'025 -1'303 -1'169 -1'808
+ Increase in Capital Stocks 524 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Decrease in Capital Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Other Financing Activities -3 -80 15 328 -1 -1 -185 -1 41 -21 956
Cash From Financing Activities 581 473 -330 -220 -276 -121 -392 -124 118 2'318 4'700
Net Changes in Cash 1'445 409 -121 -176 972 1'903 1'206 1'124 4'941 -501 877
Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 716 -112 278 50 967 1'525 969 938 3'952 -2'790 -5'037
Free Cash Flow To Firm 731 -100 300 78 993 1'525 4'038 -2'718 -4'890
Free Cash Flow To Equity 1'015 446 -60 -478 828 1'409 891 942 4'134 -337 -1'144
Free Cash Flow per Share 0.55 -0.08 0.19 0.03 0.67 1.06 0.67 0.65 1.90 -1.34 -2.18
Company Analysis - Financials III/IV
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E
Ratio Analysis
Valuation Ratios
Price Earnings 31.9x 29.9x 27.6x 18.0x 11.5x 14.6x 36.7x 21.5x 21.8x 15.5x 7.6x 10.5x 9.4x
EV to EBIT 31.0x 36.2x 31.5x 17.3x 4.7x 38.2x 2.4x 3.1x 1.0x
EV to EBITDA 17.1x 25.8x 17.3x 10.7x 2.0x 13.2x 0.8x 1.7x 0.5x
Price to Sales 0.8x 0.7x 0.5x 0.3x 0.1x 0.2x 0.5x 0.2x 0.3x 0.2x 0.1x
Price to Book 2.4x 2.1x 1.7x 1.2x 0.8x 1.1x 3.1x 1.7x 1.6x 1.6x 1.0x
Dividend Yield 0.9% 1.5% 1.7% 0.0% 4.7% 2.9% 1.0% 1.4% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1%
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 5.5% 5.0% 4.4% 4.2% 3.6% 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7%
EBITDA Margin 3.5% 2.4% 2.6% 2.3% 2.9% 2.4% 1.9% 1.9% 3.1% 2.5% 2.9% - - -
Operating Margin 1.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.7%
Profit Margin 2.4% 2.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7%
Return on Assets 3.2% 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2%
Return on Equity 7.7% 7.0% 6.3% 6.8% 7.3% 7.7% 8.6% 8.2% 13.9% 13.5% 13.8% 14.3% 14.2%
Leverage & Coverage Ratios
Current Ratio 1.41 1.24 1.20 1.14 1.11 1.14 1.16 1.12 1.06 1.06 1.07
Quick Ratio 0.77 0.74 0.79 0.73 0.74 0.83 0.79 0.75 0.67 0.63 0.56
Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) 8.31 10.90 5.50 5.76 6.92 7.05 6.30 3.32
Tot Debt/Capital 0.07 0.37 0.30 0.28 0.25 0.22 0.21 0.19 0.29 0.37 0.46
Tot Debt/Equity 0.07 0.58 0.42 0.39 0.33 0.28 0.26 0.23 0.40 0.59 0.85
Others
Asset Turnover 1.33 1.12 1.14 1.44 1.68 1.62 1.66 1.71 1.82 1.55 1.32
Accounts Receivable Turnover 10.16 9.67 9.56 10.24 11.34 11.59 12.53 11.79 13.75 12.71 10.51
Accounts Payable Turnover 10.11 8.42 10.01 9.53 12.75 9.12 8.53 8.29 9.16 7.75 7.36
Inventory Turnover 42.01 43.33 10.22 12.92 14.13 8.79 8.87 7.82 7.48 6.02 4.25
Effective Tax Rate 15.5% 14.7% 17.7% 17.4% 17.8% 13.5% 11.2% 20.8% 23.7% 21.9% 20.1%
Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
SHANG CONSTR-A SHANG TUNNEL-A
12/2011 12/2011
9.65 9.84
08.05.2012 06.02.2013
5.21 7.14
23.03.2012 30.08.2012
6'843'197 2'571'513
7.27 8.65
-24.6% -12.1%
39.5% 21.1%
2'312.7 733.5
16'813 11'233
9'707.0 5'774.0
- -
987.2 35.7
19'677.6 4'120.5
12'443 23'364
LFY 80'743.4 13'780.8
LTM 87'206.6 17'368.4
CY+1 - 30'741.0
CY+2 - 35'561.0
LFY 0.2x 1.6x
LTM 0.2x 1.3x
CY+1 - -
CY+2 - -
LFY 2'352.8 945.4
LTM - -
CY+1 - -
CY+2 - -
LFY 6.5x 23.9x
LTM - -
CY+1 - -
CY+2 - -
LFY 0.40 0.56
LTM 0.66 0.92
CY+1 0.69 0.85
CY+2 0.77 0.96
LFY 11.0x 9.4x
LTM - -
CY+1 10.5x 10.2x
CY+2 9.4x 9.0x
1 Year 10.2% (6.4%)
5 Year 37.8% 15.8%
1 Year 26.9% 41.4%
5 Year 36.9% -
LTM - -
CY+1 - -
CY+2 - -
Total Debt / Equity % 93.2% 119.2% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
Total Debt / Capital % 46.0% 54.2% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
Total Debt / EBITDA - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
Net Debt / EBITDA - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
EBITDA / Int. Expense 5.859x 2.916x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
S&P LT Credit Rating - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
S&P LT Credit Rating Date - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
Moody's LT Credit Rating - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
Moody's LT Credit Rating Date - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
52-Week High Date
52-Week Low
Latest Fiscal Year:
52-Week High
Total Debt
Market Capitalization
Daily Volume
52-Week Low % Change
Current Price (3/dd/yy)
52-Week High % Change
Cash and Equivalents
EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
Enterprise Value
Valuation
Preferred Stock
52-Week Low Date
Minority Interest
Total Common Shares (M)
P/E
Revenue Growth
Total Revenue
EV/Total Revenue
EPS
EBITDA Growth
EBITDA Margin
Credit Ratings
Leverage/Coverage Ratios
Company Analysis - Peers Comparision
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