September 22, 2020

ACADEMIC EXCELLENCE

EXCEPTIONAL WORKFORCE

COMMUNITY CONNECTION

OPERATIONAL SUSTAINABILITY

Financial Outlook and State & Federal Accountability Updates

FINANCE OUTLOOK

On Aug 14, 2020, the Office of Economic &Demographic Research (EDR) held theirGeneral Revenue Fund Estimating Conference.

• Substantial adjustments to earlier forecast

• Assumes vast improvement with availability of a vaccine

• Assumes Florida is permitted to utilize remaining CARES Act funds to mitigate revenue shortfalls

• Long-Range Financial Outlook Conf in mid Sep will provide preview of FY21-22

FLORIDA ECONOMIC UPDATE(presented on 8/25/2020)

Fiscal Year $ Change %2019-20 ($1.9B) -5.7%2020-21* ($3.4B) -9.9%2021-22* ($2.0B) -5.6%

Fiscal Year $ Change %2007-08 ($2.0B) -7.57%

General Revenue Change from January Conference Report

General Revenue Change During the Great Recession

WHAT DOES A POTENTIAL REDUCTION MEAN FOR BPS IN FY21?

(presented on 8/25/2020)

During the Great Recession, BPS lost $13.5 million in FY08 in state FEFP budget reductions

By extrapolating current state revenue loss and state variables, the BPS worst case scenario would be a 3.9% cut across the FEFP or a $22.4M reduction

Assumes the State does not use any reserves to offset the revenue shortfall

Assumes the State cuts proportional across all entities that receive General Revenue Funds

It is likely the State will use a portion of States Reserves but conservatively

Based on Current Conditions it is Recommended BPS Focus on the Following:

Reopen our schools safely

Protect our current teacher staff and focus on delivering excellent education to every student

Continue to monitor expenditures for on-going savings & protect fund balance to buffer potential mid-year revenue loss

LONG-RANGE FINANCIAL OUTLOOK (LRFO)(adopted 9/10/2020)

The Long-Range Financial Outlook (LRFO) is a constitutionally required 132-page report thatprovides a comprehensive forecast of the General Revenue expenses and revenues for three years.

Current report for FY2021-22 through FY2023-24 Adopted by the Legislative Budget Commission

LRFO ASSUMPTIONS

Assumes CARES Act funds can be used to replace reductions in state revenues and projects. However, includes extensive and specific cautions that the CARES Act specifically prohibits

the use of funds to replace lost revenues.

Projects that there will be no General Revenue budget deficit for FY20-21.

HBEC OBJECTIVES & ASSUMPTIONS

HBEC’s Assumptions:

Develop calculations to forecast the impact on the district if CARES Act funds cannot be used to replace lost state revenues. Project the impact on the district if the Legislature

reduced spending to match the loss of recurring and non-recurring General Revenue.

Did not attempt to project how the Legislature would use reserves to reduce the budget deficient. The use of reserves could reduce the impacts

projected.

HBEC’s Objectives:

HBEC FINDINGSThe findings provided the district with information on possibleadverse conditions that might be encountered to enable us to…

• utilize proactive measures to protect the fiscal position of thedistrict – ultimately, to protect the students and employees from asmany adverse impacts as possible.

If the 2020-21 budget had to be reduced to meet the loss of recurring General Revenue, BPS would see a reduction in total FEFP funding of about 3.86%, or about $21,867,456.

If there was a reduction reflecting the loss of both recurring and non-recurring General Revenue the loss would be about 5.2% or about $29,428,253.

Acknowledgements:

• Neither estimate reflects any action by the Legislature to use reserves to reduce the impact

• If the Legislature takes steps to reduce the base budget in FY 2020-2021, the projected FY 2021- 2022 budget will be in better shape.

• If the CARES Act funding or other federal funding can be used to replace lost revenues there may be no reductions in FY 2020-2021 budgets, and the FY 2021-2022 budget may also be positively impacted.

District-wide Position Analysis

Analyze District Positions as they Become Vacant

Restrict Out-of-County Travel

Evaluate Use of CARES Act Funds to maintain Workforce Stability

Continue to Monitor Contracts for Potential Savings

Establish Quarterly Re-Budgeting Process to Continually Evaluate Lapse

PRUDENT STEPS FOR BPS MOVING FORWARD(presented on 8/25/2020)

STATE & FEDERAL ACCOUNTABILITY

FIVE SCHOOL GRADE COMPONENTS

COLLEGE & CAREER ACCELERATION

GRADUATION RATEMIDDLE SCHOOL ACCELERATION

LEARNING GAINSACHIEVEMENT

ACHIEVEMENTFour Achievement Components – 100 Possible Points Each

To be included, a student must be enrolled in the same school for a full year.

The calculation is based on the number of students who took and passed the statewide standardized assessment (Level 3+)

English Language Arts (ELA)

TestedGrades 3-10

Mathematics

TestedGrades 3-8

Algebra & Geometry

Science

TestedGrades 5 & 8

HS Biology

Social Studies

TestedGrades 7

Civics & HS US History

LEARNING GAINSFour Learning Gain Components – 100 Possible Points Each

Current Calculation – Learning gains are calculated based on the improvement from the prior year to the current year.Adjusted for 2020-2021 – The learning gains will be calculated based on the improvement from the “prior-prior” year to the current year. Since these adjustments require statutory and/or State Board rule changes, they are not final until the Legislature and State Board act.

To be included – all full-year currently enrolled students with a valid ELA score from 2019

English Language Arts (ELA)

TestedGrades 3-10

Mathematics

TestedGrades 3-8

Algebra & Geometry

LEARNING GAINSFive Ways a Student Can Make Learning Gains

1

2

3

4

5

Students demonstrate gains by improving one or more achievement levels

Students in Level 5 demonstrate gains if they remain at Level 5

Students in Levels 3 and 4 demonstrate a gain by increasing their scale score

Students in Level 2 must move within the subcategories – Low and High

Students in Level 1 must move within the subcategories – Low , Middle, High

Grade Low Middle High Low High

Grade 3 240-254 255-269 270-284 285-292 293-299 300-314 315-329 330-360

Grade 4 251-266 267-281 282-296 297-303 304-310 311-324 325-339 340-372

Grade 5 257-272 273-288 289-303 304-312 313-320 321-335 336-351 352-385

Grade 6 259-275 276-292 293-308 309-317 318-325 326-338 339-355 356-391

Grade 7 267-283 284-300 301-317 318-325 326-332 333-345 346-359 360-397

Grade 8 274-289 290-305 306-321 322-329 330-336 337-351 352-365 366-403

Grade 9 276-293 294-310 311-327 328-335 336-342 343-354 355-369 370-407

Grade 10 284-300 301-317 318-333 334-341 342-349 350-361 362-377 378-412

English Language ArtsLevel 1 Level 2

Level 3 Level 4 Level 5

LEARNING GAINS

Low Middle High Low HighGrade 3 240-254 255-269 270-284 285-290 291-296 297-310 311-326 327-360

Grade 4 251-266 267-282 283-298 299-304 305-309 310-324 325-339 340-376

Grade 5 256-272 273-289 290-305 306-312 313-319 320-333 334-349 350-388

Grade 6 260-276 277-293 294-309 310-317 318-324 325-338 339-355 356-390

Grade 7 269-284 285-300 301-315 316-322 323-329 330-345 346-359 360-391

Grade 8 273-289 290-305 306-321 322-329 330-336 337-352 353-364 365-393

Low Middle High Low HighAlgebra 1 425-445 446-466 467-486 487-491 492-496 497-517 518-531 532-575 Geometry 425-445 446-465 466-485 486-492 493-498 499-520 521-532 533-575

MathematicsGrade Level 1 Level 2

Level 3 Level 4 Level 5

End-of-Course AssessmentsSubject Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5

LEARNING GAINS

MIDDLE SCHOOL ACCELERATION

Full-year enrolled grade 8 student who scored a Level 3 or above on the mathematics statewide assessment taken in prior year

Students currently enrolled in Algebra or Geometry Students who took a High School Industry Certification test (lagged measure)

Current Calculations Include:

To accommodate for the missing 2020 assessment results, Middle School Acceleration will be calculated based on the improvement from the “prior-prior” year to the current year. Full-year enrolled grade 8 student who scored a Level 3 or above on the mathematics statewide assessment

taken in grade 6 in 2019 Students currently enrolled in Algebra or Geometry Students who took a High School Industry Certification test (lagged measure)

Adjustment for 2021:

Since these adjustments require statutory and/or State Board rule changes,they are not final, until the Legislature and State Board act.

Due to COVID, the proposed changes may have an impact on the following:

The number of students included in the Elementary Learning Gains calculation will decrease

Learning gains calculated for grades 5 and 6

Lower participation in industry certification

Number of students included in the calculation for middle school acceleration

95% Tested

COVID IMPACT

GRADUATION RATE Graduation Rate is calculated using guidelines set forth by the U.S. Department of Education

Graduation rate is based on the percentage of students who graduated with a standard diploma within four years

COLLEGE & CAREER ACCELERATIONGraduates who, during the four years of the cohort earned at least:

A score of 3, 4, or 5 on the College Board Advanced Placement (AP) Exam

A score of 4, 5, 6, or 7 on the International Baccalaureate (IB) Exam

A score of 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 on the Advanced International Certificate of Education (AICE) Exam

A “C” or better in an approved Dual Enrollment course

A CAPE Industry Certification

Points Earned Components Percent of Points Overall 681 11 62% A

ELA MATHEMATICS SCIENCE SOCIAL STUDIESMIDDLE SCHOOL ACCELERATION GRADUATION RATE

COLLEGE AND CAREER

ACCELERATION

Learning Gains of the Low 25%

65%

Middle School EOC or Industry

Certification 64%

Overall 4- Year Graduation Rate

74%

High School AP ,IB, AICE, Dual

Enrollment, or Industry

Certification 68%

Achievement 52%

Achievement 57%

Achievement 54%

Achievement 57%

Learning Gains 60%

Learning Gains 67%

Learning Gains of the Low 25%

63%

SCHOOL GRADE EXAMPLE

SCHOOL GRADE SCALE

A

B

C

D

F

62 percent of total applicable points or higher

54 to 61 percent of total applicable points

41 to 53 percent of total applicable points

32 to 40 percent of total applicable points

31 percent of total applicable points or less

Additional focus on reporting of student subgroup performance

Adjustment for schools that test less than 95%

Inclusion of English Language Learner (ELL) proficiency progress as a separate accountability indicator, as required by US Department of Education

EVERY STUDENT SUCCEEDS ACT (ESSA)Federal Accountability

Background:

Accountability Provision:

Amended the Elementary and SecondaryEducation Act of 1965, replacing No Child LeftBehind provisions

ELA MATHEMATICS SCIENCE SOCIAL STUDIESMIDDLE SCHOOL ACCELERATION GRADUATION RATE

COLLEGE AND CAREER

ACCELERATION ELP Progress

Learning Gains of the Low 25%

65%

Progress of English

Language Learners in Achieving

English Language

Proficiency

Middle School EOC or Industry

Certification 64%

Overall 4- Year Graduation Rate

74%

High School AP ,IB, AICE, Dual

Enrollment, or Industry

Certification 68%

Achievement 52%

Achievement 57%

Achievement 54%

Achievement 57%

Learning Gains 60%

Learning Gains 67%

Learning Gains of the Low 25%

63%

Points Earned Components Percent of Points Overall 681 11 62% A741 12 67%

FEDERAL POINT SYSTEM

School-level Federal Index - Determines if aschool is in Comprehensive Support andImprovement (CS&I)

Subgroup-level Federal Index- Determines if aschool is in Targeted Support and Improvement(TS&I)

Subgroups - White, Black/African American,Hispanic, Asian, Native American,Multiracial, Pacific Islander, Students withDisabilities, Economically Disadvantaged, andEnglish Language Learners

FEDERAL INDEX CALCULATION