financing in serbia 15 th european annual meeting european consultants unit
DESCRIPTION
Financing in Serbia 15 th European Annual Meeting European Consultants Unit. TABLE OF CONTENTS. Development of Banking S ector Banking and Economy Development of Raiffeisenbank a.d. Precondition of Financing & Limitations Outlook. DEVELOPMENT OF BANKING SECTOR. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Financing in Serbia15th European Annual MeetingEuropean Consultants Unit
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Development of Banking Sector Banking and Economy Development of Raiffeisenbank a.d. Precondition of Financing & LimitationsOutlookTABLE OF CONTENTS
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Steady deterioration in the past 12 years prior to political changes:Large number of banksMajority of banks undercapitalizedMost banks overstaffedBanking sector small and not active enoughPolitically directed loans dominate the marketOnly basic banking products offeredLack of public trust in the banking sectorDEVELOPMENT OF BANKING SECTOR Prior to Political Changes in October 2000
-
NBS creates the basis for healthy development of financing sectorSignificant reduction in number of banks through mergers & closures: Beobanka, Beogradska banka, Jugobanka, Investbanka..Increased demand in terms of capital and quality Level of trust increasedIncrease in deposits volume:June 2001 total retail deposits reached EUR 31 mio September 2006 total retail deposits over EUR 2,74 bn Increase in loans volume:Until 2001 loans to customers were very modestDuring the last 3 years loans volume is increasing Payment system transferred to commercial banksOwnership structure of banks changed
After Political ChangesDEVELOPMENT OF BANKING SECTOR
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Development of Banking Sector Banking and Economy Development of Raiffeisenbank a.d. Precondition of Financing & LimitationsOutlookTABLE OF CONTENTS
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BANKING AND ECONOMY CONCLUSION:Due to the closure of large banks and restructuring process undergoing in state-owned banks in Serbia the banks asstets participation in Serbian GDP has declined. Nevertheless, result of new entrants into Serbian banking sector, this ratio is expected to increase.Banks Assets - Share in GDP
Chart4
0.8067035932
1.2538
1.216
0.3871
0.3218
0.38
0.43
Total Banks Assets as % of Serbian GDP
Chart13
0.780.420.360.361999
0.810.4150.380.340.21
0.80.490.440.350.23
0.750.520.420.390.3
0.760.570.440.420.35
CEE Banks Assets - Share in GDP
NMC 8
CC 3
SEEC 3
Russia
FSR 2
15 EU Countries' Average - 201%
Sheet1
Total assets of the banking sector, in EUR bn20032004
BANKARSKA AKTIVA4.956.15
NMC 8 (PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI)312.6
Rusija152.5
CC3 (RO, BG, HR)50.6
FSR 2 (UA, BY)18.8
SEEC 3 (SR, BIH, AL)15.0
Share of majority owned state-owned, in % of total assets
NMC 8PL26%
HU0%
CZ3%
SK3%
SL20%
ES0%
LT5%
LI0%
CC 3RO40%
BG2%
HR4%
SEEC 3SR45%
BH6%
AL55%
.RU32%
FSR 2UA9%
BY78%
Share of majority owned state-owned, in % of total assets in Serbia
20022003Sep-04
4649%37%
Share of majority foreign-owned banks, in % of total assets
NMC 8PL72%
HU83%
CZ97%
SK98%
SL33%
ES99%
LT55%
LI88%
CC 3RO51%
BG82%
HR91%
SEEC 3SR20%
BH75%
AL46%
.RU4%
FSR 2UA8%
BY10%
Share of majority foreign owned state-owned, in % of total assets in Serbia
2003Sep-04Sep-04
20%32%50%
200320%
Sep-0432%
Sep-0450%with sales/privatization in Q4 and '05
Market concetration - 5 najvecih igraca na trzistu
NMC 8PL49%
HU52%
CZ66%
SK68%
SL69%
ES99%
LT62%
LI82%
CC 3RO49%
BG57%
HR70%
SEEC 3SR48%
BH64%
AL80%
.RU43%
FSR 2UA38%
BY88%
200348%
Sep-0447%
Total assets of the banking sector in % of GDP
NMC 8CC 3SEEC 3RussiaFSR 2
199978%42%36%36%
200081%42%38%34%21%
200180%49%44%35%23%
200275%52%42%39%30%
200376%57%44%42%35%
2004
Total assets of the banking sector in % of GDP u Srbiji
199981%
2000125%
2001122%
200239%
200332%
200438%
200543%
Total credits of the banking sector in % of GDP
PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LIRO, BG, HRSR, BH, AL, RU, KO, MDRusijaUA, BY
199932%18%13%14%
200033%18%13%14%12%
200131%20%17%17%15%
200232%25%19%18%18%
200334%29%22%22%24%
year
199927%
200040%
200132%
200218%
200316%
200421%
Retail credits in % of GDP
PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LIRO, BG, HRSR, BH, AL, RU, KO, MDRusijaUA, BY
19997%2%1%
20008%5%3%2%1%
20018%6%4%2%1%
20029%8%6%3%2%
200311%11%9%3%4%
year
19991%
20001%
20011%
20022%
20033%
20045%
Mortage loans in % of GDP
19992000200120022003
Poljska1.95%2.10%2.70%3.70%4.80%
Slovaka0.00%0.40%0.90%1.00%2.00%
Maarska0.00%1.00%2.00%5.20%8.00%
Hrvatska3.20%4.00%4.20%7.00%9.80%
eka0.80%1.20%1.70%2.10%3.80%
Market shares in CEE 6 countries
Raiffeisen Int.11%
Hypo Alpe Adria7%
BACA (HVB Group)2%
Societe Generale2%
Ostali79%
TOTAL ASSETS OF INTERNATIONAL BANK IN CEE, 2003 IN EUR bn
KBC29
Erste27
UniCredito24
HVB/BACA23
Raiffeisen22
SocGen18.5
Banca Intesa13.5
Citibank12.5
OTP12
ING8
Commerzbank7
Allied Irish5
Hypo Alpe Adria3.5
ABN Amro3.3
GE Capital3.2
Volksbank3
Market shares in CEEC 20
Raiffeisen Int4%
HVB/BACA5%
Erste bank4%
KBC5%
UniCredito4%
SocGen6%
Banca Intesa3%
Citigroup2%
OTP3%
ING2%
GE Capital1%
Hypo Alpe1%
Commerzbank1%
Other63%
Sheet1
0
0
0
0
0
Sheet2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sheet3
0
0
uee banaka u dravnom vlasnitvu u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
0
NMC 8
0
0
0
uee banaka u stranom vlasni. u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
sa prodajama/privatizacijom u Q4 i 2005
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uee 5 najveih banaka u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
NMC 8
CC 3
SEEC 3
Russia
FSR 2
Eurozone 201%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uee bankarske aktive u BDP Srbije
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI
RO, BG, HR
SR, BH, AL, RU, KO, MD
Rusija
UA, BY
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uee ukupnih kredita u BDP u Srbiji
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI
RO, BG, HR
SR, BH, AL, RU, KO, MD
Rusija
UA, BY
Eurozone 49%
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uee kredita stanovnitva u BDP u Srbiji
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Poljska
Slovaka
Maarska
Hrvatska
eka
0
0
0
0
0
u % od neto kredita
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
na Rusiju se odnosi 30% neto kredita
PLHUCZSKSLESLTLIBGROHRRUUABYALSRBIHUKUPNO
Raiffeisen Int58504110313371902981463921758773
HVB/BACA51937232410121579823433904
ING3383515N.A.2911401
Citi16020741661205
Volksbank2819349101348125
UniCredit80126689128128651207
SocGen53385563181321666
Erste1946643421181318
KBC35915520873795
OTP4405116316670
Intesa451229200475
Hypo Alpe543259109
Commerzbank4513150
Swedb9266122280
Allied Irish432432
u % od neto kredita
BANKARSKA AKTIVA
Bankarska aktiva Srbije - mld EUR
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR% kapitala prodat/na prodajikupacpotencijalni kupcicena
stanje 30/09/2004
Jubanka a.d. Beograd88.64%Alpha bank152
Izbor kupca u toku
Novosadska banka a.d. Novi Sad82.79%Erste bank, UniCredito, EFG Eurobankn.a.
Continental banka a.d. Novi Sad98.01%GE Capital, Nova Ljubljanska banka, EFG Eurobankn.a.
Tender o prodaji akcija objavljen
Nika banka a.d. Ni100.00%
Izbor privatizacionog savetnika u tokun.a.
Vojvoanska banka a.d. Novi Sad98.65%OTP??
Panonska banka a.d. Novi Sad87.31%
u EUR milKupac% vlasnitvacena
Delta banka a.d. BeogradIntesa BCI75% + 1 akcija277.5
Eksim banka a.d. BoegradBACA98%n.a.
Atlas banka a.d. BeogradPiraeus bank80%n.a.
20032004
ukupni krediti$2,507$3,400
krediti privredi$2,013$2,535
krediti stanovnistvu$418$817
2004/20032004/2003
total credits35.64%$893
corporate credits25.93%$522
retail credits95.45%$399
20032004
ukupni depoziti$2,955$3,530
depoziti privrede$1,473$1,615
depoziti stanovnitva$1,217$1,565
19.46%
9.64%
28.56%
20032004
krediti stanovnistvu$418$817
depoziti stanovnitva$1,217$1,565
191.2%91.5%
MARKET SHARE TOP 10 BANKS
ukupna aktivaukupni krediti
Raiffeisenbank13%15%
Delta banka11%10%
Komercijalna banka10%9%
Vojvodjanska banka8%8%
Soc Gen5%4%
Hypo Alpe adria4%6%
Jubanka4%4%
AIK bank3%3%
HVB bank3%3%
ProCredit bank2%3%
ASSETS
Raiffeisenbank$802
Delta$676
Komercijalna$602
Vojvodjanska$496
SocGen$287
Hypo Alpe adria$265
Jubanka$228
AIK bank Nis$183
HVB bank$179
ProCredit bank$152
LOANS
Raiffeisenbank$521
Delta$341
Komercijalna$303
Vojvodjanska$263
SocGen$209
Hypo Alpe adria$140
Jubanka$139
AIK bank Nis$118
HVB bank$107
ProCredit bank$87
Raiffeisenbank$718
Delta$535
Komercijalna$464
Vojvodjanska$324
SocGen$260
Hypo Alpe adria$203
Jubanka$120
AIK bank Nis$119
HVB bank$97
ProCredit bank$41
00
00
00
35%
26%
95%
2003
2004
in mio of EUR
00
00
00
10%
2003
2004
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19%
29%
krediti stanovnistvu
depoziti stanovnitva
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ukupni krediti
Hypo Alpe adria4%
SG5%
vojvodjanska8%
Raiffeisenbank 13%
Delta11%
Komercijalna10%
Jubank4%
AIK bank Nis3%
HVB bank3%
ProCredit bank2%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
HVB bank3%
ProCredit bank3%
AIK bank Nis3%
Jubank4%
Raiffeisenbank15%
Delta10%
Komercijalna9%
Vojvodjanska8%
SG4%
Hypo Alpe adria6%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
-
CONCLUSION:Evident decrease of this indicator is a result of assets restructuring of state-owned banks (i.e. Write-offs of bad loans). Following the resructuring of banking sector and presence of foreign banks, participation of total credits in GDP has begun to increase (126 % YoY 2003/04)
Total Credits - Share in GDPBANKING AND ECONOMY
Chart2
0.2672290868
0.4
0.32
0.18
0.16
0.21
0.23
Total Credits as % Serbian GDP
Chart13
0.320.180.1250.1351999
0.330.1750.130.140.12
0.310.20.170.1650.15
0.3150.250.1850.180.175
0.340.290.220.220.24
Total Credits - Share in GDP
NCM8
CC3
SEEC3
Russia
FSR2
15 EU Countries Average - 110%
Sheet1
Total assets of the banking sector, in EUR bn20032004
BANKARSKA AKTIVA4.956.15
NMC 8 (PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI)312.6
Rusija152.5
CC3 (RO, BG, HR)50.6
FSR 2 (UA, BY)18.8
SEEC 3 (SR, BIH, AL)15.0
Share of majority owned state-owned, in % of total assets
NMC 8PL26%
HU0%
CZ3%
SK3%
SL20%
ES0%
LT5%
LI0%
CC 3RO40%
BG2%
HR4%
SEEC 3SR45%
BH6%
AL55%
.RU32%
FSR 2UA9%
BY78%
Share of majority owned state-owned, in % of total assets in Serbia
20022003Sep-04
4649%37%
Share of majority foreign-owned banks, in % of total assets
NMC 8PL72%
HU83%
CZ97%
SK98%
SL33%
ES99%
LT55%
LI88%
CC 3RO51%
BG82%
HR91%
SEEC 3SR20%
BH75%
AL46%
.RU4%
FSR 2UA8%
BY10%
Share of majority foreign owned state-owned, in % of total assets in Serbia
2003Sep-04Sep-04
20%32%50%
200320%
Sep-0432%
Sep-0450%with sales/privatization in Q4 and '05
Market concetration - 5 najvecih igraca na trzistu
NMC 8PL49%
HU52%
CZ66%
SK68%
SL69%
ES99%
LT62%
LI82%
CC 3RO49%
BG57%
HR70%
SEEC 3SR48%
BH64%
AL80%
.RU43%
FSR 2UA38%
BY88%
200348%
Sep-0447%
Total assets of the banking sector in % of GDP
NMC 8CC 3SEEC 3RusijaFSR 2
199978%42%36%36%
200081%42%38%34%21%
200180%49%44%35%23%
200275%52%42%39%30%
200376%57%44%42%35%
Total assets of the banking sector in % of GDP u Srbiji
199981%
2000125%
2001122%
200239%
200332%
200438%
Total credits of the banking sector in % of GDP
NCM8CC3SEEC3RussiaFSR2
199932%18%13%14%
200033%18%13%14%12%
200131%20%17%17%15%
200232%25%19%18%18%
200334%29%22%22%24%
year
199927%
200040%
200132%
200218%
200316%
200421%
200523%
Retail credits in % of GDP
PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LIRO, BG, HRSR, BH, AL, RU, KO, MDRusijaUA, BY
19997%2%1%
20008%5%3%2%1%
20018%6%4%2%1%
20029%8%6%3%2%
200311%11%9%3%4%
year
19991%
20001%
20011%
20022%
20033%
20045%
Mortage loans in % of GDP
19992000200120022003
Poljska1.95%2.10%2.70%3.70%4.80%
Slovaka0.00%0.40%0.90%1.00%2.00%
Maarska0.00%1.00%2.00%5.20%8.00%
Hrvatska3.20%4.00%4.20%7.00%9.80%
eka0.80%1.20%1.70%2.10%3.80%
Market shares in CEE 6 countries
Raiffeisen Int.11%
Hypo Alpe Adria7%
BACA (HVB Group)2%
Societe Generale2%
Ostali79%
TOTAL ASSETS OF INTERNATIONAL BANK IN CEE, 2003 IN EUR bn
KBC29
Erste27
UniCredito24
HVB/BACA23
Raiffeisen22
SocGen18.5
Banca Intesa13.5
Citibank12.5
OTP12
ING8
Commerzbank7
Allied Irish5
Hypo Alpe Adria3.5
ABN Amro3.3
GE Capital3.2
Volksbank3
Market shares in CEEC 20
Raiffeisen Int4%
HVB/BACA5%
Erste bank4%
KBC5%
UniCredito4%
SocGen6%
Banca Intesa3%
Citigroup2%
OTP3%
ING2%
GE Capital1%
Hypo Alpe1%
Commerzbank1%
Other63%
Sheet1
312.6
152.5
50.6
18.8
15
Sheet2
0.26
0
0.03
0.025
0.2
0
0.05
0
0.4
0.015
0.035
0.45
0.06
0.55
0.32
0.085
0.78
Sheet3
0.49
0.37
uee banaka u dravnom vlasnitvu u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
0.72PLNMC 8
0.83HU
0.97CZ
0.98SK
0.33SL
0.99ES
0.55LT
0.880
0.51ROCC 3
0.82BG
0.910
0.2SRSEEC 3
0.75BH
0.460
0.040
0.08UAFSR 2
0.1BY
NMC 8
0.2
0.32
0.5
uee banaka u stranom vlasni. u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
sa prodajama/privatizacijom u Q4 i 2005
0.49
0.52
0.66
0.68
0.69
0.99
0.62
0.82
0.49
0.57
0.7
0.48
0.64
0.8
0.43
0.38
0.88
0
0
Uee 5 najveih banaka u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
0.780.420.360.361999
0.810.4150.380.340.21
0.80.490.440.350.23
0.750.520.420.390.3
0.760.570.440.420.35
NMC 8 (PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI)
CC 3 (RO, BG, HR)
SEEC 3 (SR, BIH, AL
Rusija
FSR 2 (UA, BY))
Eurozone 201%
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uee bankarske aktive u BDP Srbije
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
NCM8
CC3
SEEC3
Russia
FSR2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uee ukupnih kredita u BDP u Srbiji
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI
RO, BG, HR
SR, BH, AL, RU, KO, MD
Rusija
UA, BY
Eurozone 49%
0.0093339014
0.0051
0.0146
0.0186
0.0272
0.0502
Uee kredita stanovnitva u BDP u Srbiji
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Poljska
Slovaka
Maarska
Hrvatska
eka
0
0
0
0
0
u % od neto kredita
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
na Rusiju se odnosi 30% neto kredita
PLHUCZSKSLESLTLIBGROHRRUUABYALSRBIHUKUPNO
Raiffeisen Int58504110313371902981463921758773
HVB/BACA51937232410121579823433904
ING3383515N.A.2911401
Citi16020741661205
Volksbank2819349101348125
UniCredit80126689128128651207
SocGen53385563181321666
Erste1946643421181318
KBC35915520873795
OTP4405116316670
Intesa451229200475
Hypo Alpe543259109
Commerzbank4513150
Swedb9266122280
Allied Irish432432
u % od neto kredita
BANKARSKA AKTIVA
Bankarska aktiva Srbije - mld EUR
2003
2004
4.95
6.152
u mil EUR% kapitala prodat/na prodajikupacpotencijalni kupcicena
stanje 30/09/2004
Jubanka a.d. Beograd88.64%Alpha bank152
Izbor kupca u toku
Novosadska banka a.d. Novi Sad82.79%Erste bank, UniCredito, EFG Eurobankn.a.
Continental banka a.d. Novi Sad98.01%GE Capital, Nova Ljubljanska banka, EFG Eurobankn.a.
Tender o prodaji akcija objavljen
Nika banka a.d. Ni100.00%
Izbor privatizacionog savetnika u tokun.a.
Vojvoanska banka a.d. Novi Sad98.65%OTP??
Panonska banka a.d. Novi Sad87.31%
u EUR milKupac% vlasnitvacena
Delta banka a.d. BeogradIntesa BCI75% + 1 akcija277.5
Eksim banka a.d. BoegradBACA98%n.a.
Atlas banka a.d. BeogradPiraeus bank80%n.a.
20032004
ukupni krediti$2,507$3,400
krediti privredi$2,013$2,535
krediti stanovnistvu$418$817
2004/20032004/2003
total credits35.64%$893
corporate credits25.93%$522
retail credits95.45%$399
20032004
ukupni depoziti$2,955$3,530
depoziti privrede$1,473$1,615
depoziti stanovnitva$1,217$1,565
19.46%
9.64%
28.56%
20032004
krediti stanovnistvu$418$817
depoziti stanovnitva$1,217$1,565
191.2%91.5%
MARKET SHARE TOP 10 BANKS
ukupna aktivaukupni krediti
Raiffeisenbank13%15%
Delta banka11%10%
Komercijalna banka10%9%
Vojvodjanska banka8%8%
Soc Gen5%4%
Hypo Alpe adria4%6%
Jubanka4%4%
AIK bank3%3%
HVB bank3%3%
ProCredit bank2%3%
ASSETS
Raiffeisenbank$802
Delta$676
Komercijalna$602
Vojvodjanska$496
SocGen$287
Hypo Alpe adria$265
Jubanka$228
AIK bank Nis$183
HVB bank$179
ProCredit bank$152
LOANS
Raiffeisenbank$521
Delta$341
Komercijalna$303
Vojvodjanska$263
SocGen$209
Hypo Alpe adria$140
Jubanka$139
AIK bank Nis$118
HVB bank$107
ProCredit bank$87
Raiffeisenbank$718
Delta$535
Komercijalna$464
Vojvodjanska$324
SocGen$260
Hypo Alpe adria$203
Jubanka$120
AIK bank Nis$119
HVB bank$97
ProCredit bank$41
00
00
00
35%
26%
95%
2003
2004
in mio of EUR
00
00
00
10%
2003
2004
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19%
29%
krediti stanovnistvu
depoziti stanovnitva
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ukupni krediti
Hypo Alpe adria4%
SG5%
vojvodjanska8%
Raiffeisenbank 13%
Delta11%
Komercijalna10%
Jubank4%
AIK bank Nis3%
HVB bank3%
ProCredit bank2%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
HVB bank3%
ProCredit bank3%
AIK bank Nis3%
Jubank4%
Raiffeisenbank15%
Delta10%
Komercijalna9%
Vojvodjanska8%
SG4%
Hypo Alpe adria6%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
-
CONCLUSION:Retail market segment is the most dynamic in term of growth rates. The large increase is primarily generated through much larger supply of retail loans in recent years. There is still enough scope for further growth.Retail Loans - Share in GDPBANKING AND ECONOMY
Chart2
0.0093339014
0.0051
0.0146
0.0186
0.0272
0.0502
0.07
Retail Loans as % of Serbian GDP
Sheet1
Sheet1
0.0093339014
0.0051
0.0146
0.0186
0.0272
0.0502
0.07
Retail Loans as % of Serbian GDP
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD00006A61.xls
Chart2
0.2672290868
0.4
0.32
0.18
0.16
0.21
0.23
Total Credits as % Serbian GDP
Chart13
0.320.180.1250.1351999
0.330.1750.130.140.12
0.310.20.170.1650.15
0.3150.250.1850.180.175
0.340.290.220.220.24
Total Credits - Share in GDP
NCM8
CC3
SEEC3
Russia
FSR2
15 EU Countries Average - 110%
Sheet1
Total assets of the banking sector, in EUR bn20032004
BANKARSKA AKTIVA4.956.15
NMC 8 (PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI)312.6
Rusija152.5
CC3 (RO, BG, HR)50.6
FSR 2 (UA, BY)18.8
SEEC 3 (SR, BIH, AL)15.0
Share of majority owned state-owned, in % of total assets
NMC 8PL26%
HU0%
CZ3%
SK3%
SL20%
ES0%
LT5%
LI0%
CC 3RO40%
BG2%
HR4%
SEEC 3SR45%
BH6%
AL55%
.RU32%
FSR 2UA9%
BY78%
Share of majority owned state-owned, in % of total assets in Serbia
20022003Sep-04
4649%37%
Share of majority foreign-owned banks, in % of total assets
NMC 8PL72%
HU83%
CZ97%
SK98%
SL33%
ES99%
LT55%
LI88%
CC 3RO51%
BG82%
HR91%
SEEC 3SR20%
BH75%
AL46%
.RU4%
FSR 2UA8%
BY10%
Share of majority foreign owned state-owned, in % of total assets in Serbia
2003Sep-04Sep-04
20%32%50%
200320%
Sep-0432%
Sep-0450%with sales/privatization in Q4 and '05
Market concetration - 5 najvecih igraca na trzistu
NMC 8PL49%
HU52%
CZ66%
SK68%
SL69%
ES99%
LT62%
LI82%
CC 3RO49%
BG57%
HR70%
SEEC 3SR48%
BH64%
AL80%
.RU43%
FSR 2UA38%
BY88%
200348%
Sep-0447%
Total assets of the banking sector in % of GDP
NMC 8CC 3SEEC 3RusijaFSR 2
199978%42%36%36%
200081%42%38%34%21%
200180%49%44%35%23%
200275%52%42%39%30%
200376%57%44%42%35%
Total assets of the banking sector in % of GDP u Srbiji
199981%
2000125%
2001122%
200239%
200332%
200438%
Total credits of the banking sector in % of GDP
NCM8CC3SEEC3RussiaFSR2
199932%18%13%14%
200033%18%13%14%12%
200131%20%17%17%15%
200232%25%19%18%18%
200334%29%22%22%24%
year
199927%
200040%
200132%
200218%
200316%
200421%
200523%
Retail credits in % of GDP
PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LIRO, BG, HRSR, BH, AL, RU, KO, MDRusijaUA, BY
19997%2%1%
20008%5%3%2%1%
20018%6%4%2%1%
20029%8%6%3%2%
200311%11%9%3%4%
year
19991%
20001%
20011%
20022%
20033%
20045%
Mortage loans in % of GDP
19992000200120022003
Poljska1.95%2.10%2.70%3.70%4.80%
Slovaka0.00%0.40%0.90%1.00%2.00%
Maarska0.00%1.00%2.00%5.20%8.00%
Hrvatska3.20%4.00%4.20%7.00%9.80%
eka0.80%1.20%1.70%2.10%3.80%
Market shares in CEE 6 countries
Raiffeisen Int.11%
Hypo Alpe Adria7%
BACA (HVB Group)2%
Societe Generale2%
Ostali79%
TOTAL ASSETS OF INTERNATIONAL BANK IN CEE, 2003 IN EUR bn
KBC29
Erste27
UniCredito24
HVB/BACA23
Raiffeisen22
SocGen18.5
Banca Intesa13.5
Citibank12.5
OTP12
ING8
Commerzbank7
Allied Irish5
Hypo Alpe Adria3.5
ABN Amro3.3
GE Capital3.2
Volksbank3
Market shares in CEEC 20
Raiffeisen Int4%
HVB/BACA5%
Erste bank4%
KBC5%
UniCredito4%
SocGen6%
Banca Intesa3%
Citigroup2%
OTP3%
ING2%
GE Capital1%
Hypo Alpe1%
Commerzbank1%
Other63%
Sheet1
312.6
152.5
50.6
18.8
15
Sheet2
0.26
0
0.03
0.025
0.2
0
0.05
0
0.4
0.015
0.035
0.45
0.06
0.55
0.32
0.085
0.78
Sheet3
0.49
0.37
uee banaka u dravnom vlasnitvu u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
0.72PLNMC 8
0.83HU
0.97CZ
0.98SK
0.33SL
0.99ES
0.55LT
0.880
0.51ROCC 3
0.82BG
0.910
0.2SRSEEC 3
0.75BH
0.460
0.040
0.08UAFSR 2
0.1BY
NMC 8
0.2
0.32
0.5
uee banaka u stranom vlasni. u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
sa prodajama/privatizacijom u Q4 i 2005
0.49
0.52
0.66
0.68
0.69
0.99
0.62
0.82
0.49
0.57
0.7
0.48
0.64
0.8
0.43
0.38
0.88
0
0
Uee 5 najveih banaka u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
0.780.420.360.361999
0.810.4150.380.340.21
0.80.490.440.350.23
0.750.520.420.390.3
0.760.570.440.420.35
NMC 8 (PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI)
CC 3 (RO, BG, HR)
SEEC 3 (SR, BIH, AL
Rusija
FSR 2 (UA, BY))
Eurozone 201%
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uee bankarske aktive u BDP Srbije
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
NCM8
CC3
SEEC3
Russia
FSR2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uee ukupnih kredita u BDP u Srbiji
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI
RO, BG, HR
SR, BH, AL, RU, KO, MD
Rusija
UA, BY
Eurozone 49%
0.0093339014
0.0051
0.0146
0.0186
0.0272
0.0502
Uee kredita stanovnitva u BDP u Srbiji
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Poljska
Slovaka
Maarska
Hrvatska
eka
0
0
0
0
0
u % od neto kredita
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
na Rusiju se odnosi 30% neto kredita
PLHUCZSKSLESLTLIBGROHRRUUABYALSRBIHUKUPNO
Raiffeisen Int58504110313371902981463921758773
HVB/BACA51937232410121579823433904
ING3383515N.A.2911401
Citi16020741661205
Volksbank2819349101348125
UniCredit80126689128128651207
SocGen53385563181321666
Erste1946643421181318
KBC35915520873795
OTP4405116316670
Intesa451229200475
Hypo Alpe543259109
Commerzbank4513150
Swedb9266122280
Allied Irish432432
u % od neto kredita
BANKARSKA AKTIVA
Bankarska aktiva Srbije - mld EUR
2003
2004
4.95
6.152
u mil EUR% kapitala prodat/na prodajikupacpotencijalni kupcicena
stanje 30/09/2004
Jubanka a.d. Beograd88.64%Alpha bank152
Izbor kupca u toku
Novosadska banka a.d. Novi Sad82.79%Erste bank, UniCredito, EFG Eurobankn.a.
Continental banka a.d. Novi Sad98.01%GE Capital, Nova Ljubljanska banka, EFG Eurobankn.a.
Tender o prodaji akcija objavljen
Nika banka a.d. Ni100.00%
Izbor privatizacionog savetnika u tokun.a.
Vojvoanska banka a.d. Novi Sad98.65%OTP??
Panonska banka a.d. Novi Sad87.31%
u EUR milKupac% vlasnitvacena
Delta banka a.d. BeogradIntesa BCI75% + 1 akcija277.5
Eksim banka a.d. BoegradBACA98%n.a.
Atlas banka a.d. BeogradPiraeus bank80%n.a.
20032004
ukupni krediti$2,507$3,400
krediti privredi$2,013$2,535
krediti stanovnistvu$418$817
2004/20032004/2003
total credits35.64%$893
corporate credits25.93%$522
retail credits95.45%$399
20032004
ukupni depoziti$2,955$3,530
depoziti privrede$1,473$1,615
depoziti stanovnitva$1,217$1,565
19.46%
9.64%
28.56%
20032004
krediti stanovnistvu$418$817
depoziti stanovnitva$1,217$1,565
191.2%91.5%
MARKET SHARE TOP 10 BANKS
ukupna aktivaukupni krediti
Raiffeisenbank13%15%
Delta banka11%10%
Komercijalna banka10%9%
Vojvodjanska banka8%8%
Soc Gen5%4%
Hypo Alpe adria4%6%
Jubanka4%4%
AIK bank3%3%
HVB bank3%3%
ProCredit bank2%3%
ASSETS
Raiffeisenbank$802
Delta$676
Komercijalna$602
Vojvodjanska$496
SocGen$287
Hypo Alpe adria$265
Jubanka$228
AIK bank Nis$183
HVB bank$179
ProCredit bank$152
LOANS
Raiffeisenbank$521
Delta$341
Komercijalna$303
Vojvodjanska$263
SocGen$209
Hypo Alpe adria$140
Jubanka$139
AIK bank Nis$118
HVB bank$107
ProCredit bank$87
Raiffeisenbank$718
Delta$535
Komercijalna$464
Vojvodjanska$324
SocGen$260
Hypo Alpe adria$203
Jubanka$120
AIK bank Nis$119
HVB bank$97
ProCredit bank$41
00
00
00
35%
26%
95%
2003
2004
in mio of EUR
00
00
00
10%
2003
2004
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19%
29%
krediti stanovnistvu
depoziti stanovnitva
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ukupni krediti
Hypo Alpe adria4%
SG5%
vojvodjanska8%
Raiffeisenbank 13%
Delta11%
Komercijalna10%
Jubank4%
AIK bank Nis3%
HVB bank3%
ProCredit bank2%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
HVB bank3%
ProCredit bank3%
AIK bank Nis3%
Jubank4%
Raiffeisenbank15%
Delta10%
Komercijalna9%
Vojvodjanska8%
SG4%
Hypo Alpe adria6%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
-
BANKING AND ECONOMY1M BELIBOR
-
This commentary is for information only and the comments and forecasts are intended to be of a general nature and are current as at the date of issue. Issued by Raiffeisenbank A.D., Belgrade who takes no responsibility for any individual investment decisions based thereon. This documentation is not intended as an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell currency. Information is obtained from sources that are believed to be reliable but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Relevant economic data has been taken from Statistical gazette of NBS, Economical gazette of NBS, Ministry of finance of Serbia internet page, NBS internet page, Republic of Serbia statistic department. In 2005 CSD nominal depreciation towards EUR was 8.4%, effective depreciation was amounting to 7% In 2006 up to now CSD depreciated for 1.29% It is expected that the EUR/CSD would be around 87.5-88.5 level at the end of 2006 Expectations are that CPI would be in range 9.5%-13.5%BANKING AND ECONOMYEUR/CSD ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
Sheet1
Trend EUR/CSD
HistoryForecast
12/31/053/31/065/31/068/31/069/30/0612/31/06
85.586.900587.638084.400085.831788.0039
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
Market position and growth rates____________________(1)av. nom. GDP-growth 2004e-2007e (p.a.): 19,0 %(2) av. nom. GDP-growth 2004e-2007e (p.a.): 14,0 %(3) av. nom. GDP-growth 2004e-2007e (p.a.): 14,4 %Bosnia and HerzegovinaCroatiaSlovakiaSerbia KosovoAlbaniaRomaniaBelarus(1)BulgariaHungaryCzech Rep.Russia(3)PolandUkraine(2)Slovenia0%2%4%6%8%10%12%Market-position-Average nominal GDP-growth 2004e 2007 p.a.Top 1 -3>6 EU-123,6% p.a.No. of NWBs834Top 4 -6>
-
Development of Banking Sector Banking and Economy Development of Raiffeisenbank a.d. Precondition of Financing & LimitationsOutlookTABLE OF CONTENTS
-
RZB Group in CEE
-
First bank established with 100% foreign capital in the country The Banks shareholders: Raiffeisen International IFC, World Bank Group Equity EUR 200 mio More than 365,000 clients 54 branches Universal bank for 4 main business segments: Corporate Banking Retail Banking Private individuals Retail Banking SMEs (small & micro enterprises and professionals)Treasury & Investment BankingRAIFFEISENBANK a.d. Belgrade
-
TOP 15 BANKS -by total assetsAs at: 30/06/2006 in million EURSource: NBS, under local statutary requirements, prepared by: Raiffeisenbank
Chart2
Raiffeisenbank1664
Banca Intesa1118
Hypo Alpe-Adria1077
Komercijalna1061
HVB Bank943
Societe Generale533
Vojvodjanska511
Alpha446
Pro Credit Bank390
AIK banka313
NBG280
EFG Eurobank276
Volksbank238
Meridian - CA231
Erste228
1,664
chartovi (2)
64.2679374,684
1Raiffeisenbank18,357,0701,664
2Banca Intesa1,118
3Hypo Alpe-Adria1,077
4Komercijalna1,061
5HVB Bank943
6Societe Generale533
7Vojvodjanska511
8Alpha446
9Pro Credit Bank390
10AIK banka313
11NBG280
12EFG Eurobank276
13Volksbank238
14Meridian - CA231
15Erste228
chartovi (2)
0
0
0
0
Retail savings - in mio of USD
Vojvodjanska764249
Delta694923
Komercijalna626111
Raiffeisenbank421153
Jubank277764
AIK bank191397
Novosadska163676
Srpska Banka159594
Postanska Sted.149419
Societe Generale147825
421,153
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
465
11
Retail savings as of 31 August 2003 - (in mio of EUR)
11
Total deposits as of 30 June 2003 - in mio of EUR
303
11
Total equity as of 30 June 2003 - in mio of EUR
24
111
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
Kreditni Portfolio Raiffeisenbank a.d., Beograd - 2003
-
Development of Banking Sector Banking and Economy Development of Raiffeisenbank a.d. Precondition of Financing & LimitationsOutlookTABLE OF CONTENTS
-
Profile of the borrower: Privately owned companies with undisputable ownership rights Subsidiaries of Multinationals State owned and mixed companies with good prospects of privatization Track record of at least 2-3 years
Credit profile Purpose:working capital financing, financing of investments, project/trade financing Amounts:up to EUR 50 mio (current legal lending limit)
Tenors:working capital financing: up to 2y investments/project financing: up to 10y
Collateral:Mortgage, pledge on equipment and inventory, bank/corporate guarantees and cash deposits, assignment of receivables, unsecured etc Preconditions for financing-limitations
-
LimitationsCountry risk: maximum tenor, costs of refinancing, maximum country limitLack of country-wide land registerLack of available construction/industrial land in towns Legal restrictions: Law on Foreign Credit Transactions, necessity of registration of international financing with National Bank of Serbia (reduction of flexibility)Costs of refinancing: mandatory reserve costs (60%), costs for political risk Still limited transparency of balance sheets but strongly improving
ImprovementsSignificance of balance sheet, International Accounting StandardsPositive track record with the bank, willingness and capability to repayIncreasing of competition in the banking areaPreconditions for financing-limitations
-
TOP 15 BANKS -by total loansAs at: 30/06/2006 in million EURSource: NBS, under local statutary requirements, prepared by: Raiffeisenbank
Chart2
Raiffeisenbank917
Banca Intesa609
Hypo-Alpe-Adria Bank599
Komercijalna banka501
HVB Bank396
Societe Generale253
Pro Credit Bank238
AIK banka209
Meridian - CA134
EFG Eurobank124
NBG123
Continental114
Agrobanka111
Volksbank109
Panonska95
917
chartovi (2)
64.2679374,684
1Raiffeisenbank18,357,070917
2Banca Intesa609
3Hypo-Alpe-Adria Bank599
4Komercijalna banka501
5HVB Bank396
6Societe Generale253
7Pro Credit Bank238
8AIK banka209
9Meridian - CA134
10EFG Eurobank124
NBG123
Continental114
Agrobanka111
Volksbank109
Panonska95
chartovi (2)
0
0
0
0
Retail savings - in mio of USD
Vojvodjanska764249
Delta694923
Komercijalna626111
Raiffeisenbank421153
Jubank277764
AIK bank191397
Novosadska163676
Srpska Banka159594
Postanska Sted.149419
Societe Generale147825
421,153
Raiffeisenbank917
Banca Intesa609
Hypo-Alpe-Adria Bank599
Komercijalna banka501
HVB Bank396
Societe Generale253
Pro Credit Bank238
AIK banka209
Meridian - CA134
EFG Eurobank124
465
11
Retail savings as of 31 August 2003 - (in mio of EUR)
11
Total deposits as of 30 June 2003 - in mio of EUR
303
11
Total equity as of 30 June 2003 - in mio of EUR
24
111
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
Kreditni Portfolio Raiffeisenbank a.d., Beograd - 2003
-
Development of Banking Sector Banking and Economy Development of Raiffeisenbank a.d. Precondition of Financing & LimitationsOutlookTABLE OF CONTENTS
-
Outlook
Increased competition due to entrance of new banks into the marketIncreased mandatory reserve requirementsPositive development of the country current country rating: Standard & Poors BB-More foreign Greenfield investments expectedEU entry and further stabilization expected on mid term
SummarySerbia is no longer a high risk country, currently ideal proportion between opportunity and risk
Outlook - Plans
-
Thank you for your attention!