finding potentially outperform stocks with technical analysis
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Finding Potentially Outperform Stocks with Technical Analysis and Bloomberg
MM Dandytra, CSA, CFTe
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English Is Not My Mother TongueCFTe Lv.2 Exam
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Today’s Subjects
The Foundation of Technical Analysis
Outperform – Underperform
Relative Rotation Graph
Tom Dorsey’s Method
Ratio Chart or Relative Comparison Chart or Relative Strength
“Perfect” Technical Analysis Indicators
Relative Comparison with Bloomberg Portfolio Charts
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Technical Analysis
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Technical Analysis
John J. Murphy
• “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets”• The study of market action through the use of chats for the
purpose of forecasting future price trends
Martin J. Pring
• “Technical Analysis Explained”• The art to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage
and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed
John D. Magee and Roberts D. Edwards
• “Technical Analysis of Stocks Trends”• The science of recording in graphic form the actual history
of trading and then deducing from that pictured history the probable future trend
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The Use of Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis
Trend Analysis
Timing Analysis
Price Analysis
Investment Strategy
Decision & Action
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Technical Analysis “Branches”
Technical Analysis
Classic
(Chartist)Modern
(Indicators)
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Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis
Basic Theory
Dow Jones Theory
Trend Analysis
Supply Demand
Line Analysis
Support Resistance
Trendline
Channel
Price Pattern Analysis
Candlestick
Bar Chart
Gap Analysis
Chart Pattern Analysis
Reversal Pattern
Continuation Pattern
Hybrid Pattern
Volume Analysis
Spesific Theory
Elliot Wave
Gann Method
Fibonacci Method
Indicators
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Indicators
Indicators
Momentum
Stochastic Oscillator
RSI
Trend Following
Moving Average
MACD
Volume
On Balance Volume
Volatility
Bollinger Band
Average Trading Range
Sentiment
Market Breadth
Advance Decline
Quantitative Methods
Standard Deviation
Linear Regression
Line
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Technical Analysis’ Premises
Price Discounts Everything
Insider Trading (or Speculation) always occurs
Semi – Strong Form Market (Market Data and Public Information are available)
Price Moves in Trend
Price movement is not random
Random Theory is wrong
History Repeats Itself
What has happened will probably happen again
There are certain patterns or cycles
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Technical Analysis Chart
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Outperform - Underperform
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Why Investor Trade / Invest in Stocks
Dividend
Capital Gain
Exceed Cost of Capital
Inflation
Free Risk Interest Rate
Internal Required Return
Exceed certain Benchmark
Market
Other Index
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Exceed The Benchmark
Earn bigger Gain than JCI
21 Sept’12 – 31 Okt’12
ADHI +53% vs JCI 2%
Experience Loss fewer than JCI
8 Agus’11 – 29 Sept’11
ASII -2% vs JCI -8%
Record Gain even when JCI falls
25 Apr’12 – 31 May’12
ACES 22% vs JCI -8%
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ADHI
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ASII
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ACES
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So …
Outperform means Exceed Benchmark
Earn bigger Gain than JCI
Experience Loss fewer than JCI
Record Gain even JCI fall
Underperform means Not Exceed Benchmark
Earn fewer Gain than JCI
Experience Loss bigger than JCI
Record Loss even JCI rise
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This seminar aim to help you findstocks that will Outperform JCI andalso your Portfolio Basket usingTechnical Analysis and Bloombergtools
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Tom Dorsey Method
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Who Is He ?
Co-founder of Dorsey, Wrigth & Associates (DWA) in 1987, an investment firm in Virginia, U.S
Fund Manager whose funds often beat market by using Technical Analysis method
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How They Do That ?
Using Point & Figure Chart and Relative Strength to maket their funds Outperform
Relative Strength of :
Stocks and Index
ETF and MSCI
Certain Index and Index Basket
Divide the numerator (stock) and the denominator (index) then convert it into Point and Figure Chart
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Point and Figure Chart Analysis
Point and Figure Analysis mostly is Chart Pattern analysis (and a powerful one)
However, the most difficulty in conducting Point and Figure Analysis is user must find a correct “Box Size” and “Box Reversal”
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ASII in Point and Figure Chart
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Why are we talking about Dorsey ?
Tom Dorsey and DWA proves that Relative Strength method can be useful in order to find stocks or ETF that Outperform market
Relative Strength is not necessarily have to be in form of Point and Figure
Relative Strength can be in other Price Pattern such as Candlestick and Line Chart
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Relative Rotation Graph (RRG)
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What is Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) ?
A method created by Julius de Kempenaer and developed by Trevor Neil
Available in Bloomberg since 2011 RRG <GO>
A new method that Proof Instruments are Rotating (similar with Cycle analysis)
RRG can also be used to find Instruments that are Outperforming and Underperforming as well as Rising and Falling
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The Appearance of RRG
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4 Sides of RRG
IMPROVING (Rising but
Underperform)
LAGGING (Falling and
Underperform)
LEADING (Rising and Outperform)
WEAKENING (Falling but Outperform)
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How to Use RRG
Choose your Risk Profile and Match it with your Strategy
Then choose stocks whose Sector is in your preference Sides
Suggestion :
Long Term Investor : Lagging Sides
Medium Term : Improving Sides
Short Term Trader : Improving or Leading Sides
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What is “wrong” with RRG ?
Technically Speaking, RRG Chart is not a normal Technical Analysis Chart
Still need a deep research to study how Instruments rotate from Side to Side
Until then, Technical Analysis method should not be applied
However, RRG is a great Coincident Indicators but should not be employed as Leading Indicators
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Relative Strength
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3 in 1
Relative Strength
Relative Comparison
Ratio Chart
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Ratio Chart of ADHI and JCI
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Ratio Chart of ASII and JCI
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Ratio Chart of ACES and JCI
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Ratio Chart of AB
Ratio Chart of AB = Divide A with B
If AB Ratio Chart Rises (Outperform)
A is Better than B
Buy A and Sell B
If AB Ratio Chart Falls (Underperform)
B is Better than A
Buy B and Sell A
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The Original Use
Relative Strength in Technical Analysis is used by John Murphy in conducting Intermarket Analysis
Relative Strength helps us to find Instruments that are Performing better than other Instruments
Relative Strength is used in Asset Allocation Strategy
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Relative Strength in Bloomberg (Ratio Chart)
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Steps
Using function G <GO>
Create New Charts
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Ratio Chart of ASII and JCI Index
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Ratio Chart of CPO and Coal
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Ratio Chart of JCI and Dow Jones
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Ratio Chart of Gold and U.S Gov. Bonds 5Yr
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“Perfect” Indicators
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What is “Perfect” ?
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Ask Them “Is There A Perfect Weapon / Tools ?”
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“Perfect” means ...
You understand “It” so much that you are able to maximize “Its” advantages and minimize “Its” disadvantages
You choose “It” under every circumstances, even if you have another options
“It” is the only thing / one that you Trust
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Holy Grail
Holy Grail is a method (indicators, system, technique, etc) that give you 100% accuracy, 100% consistent profit and 0% loss
Holy Grail is not exist !
There is no Perfect but there is “Perfect”
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“Perfect” Indicators means ...
Indicators that you understand so much that you can Maximize its own Advantages and Minimize its own Disadvantages
Indicators that you use for Buy and Sell Signals … but then you know which are the Best Buy and Sell Signals … and still you are okay if you make wrong actions because of those so-called “Perfect” Indicators of yours
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Technical Analysis’ Indicators
Indicators
Momentum
Stochastic Oscillator
RSI
Trend Following
Moving Average
MACD
Volume
On Balance Volume
Volatility
Bollinger Band
Average Trading Range
Sentiment
Market Breadth
Advance Decline
Quantitative Methods
Standard Deviation
Linear Regression
Line
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My Recommendation
I believe the best Trading activities lies in Medium Term Trading; not Short Term Trading or Long Term Trading (Investing) Based on Risk – Reward and Holding Period. MT offer
Higher Profit than ST and Faster than LT
Investor and Trader can employ Medium Term Trading
Medium Term Trading in my Technical Analysis concept can be translated into : Buy when Momentum Indicators is Oversold while Trend
Following Indicators is Bullish
Sell when Momentum Indicators is Overbought while Trend Following Indicators turns to Bearish (from Bullish)
That would be : Buy Low – Sell Higher
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My “Perfect” Indicators
Bollinger Band Stochastic Oscillator
Type :
Trend Following Indicators
Volatility Indicators
Quantitative Indicators
Purpose :
Trend
Overshoot – Undershoot (based on Statistical Method)
High – Low Volatility
Type :
Momentum Indicators
Purpose :
Oversold and Overbought reading
Timing to Rise or Fall
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Moving Average
Moving Average is an averaging method that ‘move’ periodically so it is always the latest average
MA20 means average 20 days ago Since 20 days represents a month, MA20 could also
mean Monthly Average
If Current Price is above MA20, technically speaking it means Bullish It’s Bullish because Current Price is above Monthly
Average
Similar parable : MA20 with MoM Rise or Fall, MA60 with QoQ Rise or Fall and MA200 with YoY Rise or Fall
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Bollinger Band
Bollinger Band is a Standard Deviation of its Moving Average Standard Calculation of Bollinger Band is 2SD and -2SD
of MA20
Statistically Speaking, if Price is below or above 2 (and -2) times its Standard Deviation then it is beyond ~95% of overall range (normal distribution) that’s what I called Overshoot and Undershoot
If the range between 2SD and -2SD is widening then the volatility is high, vice versa
Similar Bollinger Band method often used in PE Band and PBV band
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Stochastic Oscillator
Stochasic Oscillator reads how close Current Price to its extreme certain period range
How close is Current Price to (say) 20 last days range of highest or lowest range
If Current Price near its Highest Price in 20 last days then Stochastic Oscillator read an Overbought
If Current Price near its Lowest Price in 20 last days then Stochastic Oscillator read on Oversold
Often, you don’t need to see Stochastic Oscillator to prove if it is Overbought or Oversold based on Stochastic Oscillator method
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The Appearance of My “Perfect” Indicators
Stochastic Oscillator Modified
Full Method of Bollinger Band
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Relative Strength with Technical Analysis
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Recall : Ratio Chart of ASII and JCI Index
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Ratio Chart of ASII and JCI Index
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Ratio Chart of BBCA and JCI Index
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Ratio Chart of BBCA and Finance Index
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Ratio Chart of Property and JCI Index
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The Portfolio Maker
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Bloomberg Features
CIX <GO>
Main menu in order to create index
CIXB <GO>
Easier menu to create our own index
CIX is able to create historical Chart based on the securities and weighting method (Personal, Equal or Market Weigth)
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Cement Index with CIXB <GO>
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Cement Index Historical Chart
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Portfolio Charts
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Making Your Portfolio with CIXB <GO>
5BIGS : ASII, BBCA, TLKM, UNVR and PGAS
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5BIGS (Your Portfolio) Historical Chart
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Attention
Historical Chart of Portfolio assumes that the weighting are consistent with the weighting that you input in CIX <GO>
That seems not applicable but then we are looking at the future
Assumes that the weighting will not be changed in the future
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Ratio Chart of Portfolio Chart
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What is that ?
The idea is to combine Relative Strength method with the Amazingness of Bloomberg which can create a Portfolio Chart
We can try to Outperform certain index then why can not we choose Stocks in our Portfolio that could Outperform our Portfolio itself using Relative Strength and Technical Analysis (and Bloomberg)
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Ratio Chart of ASII and Your Portfolio
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Ratio Chart of TLKM and Your Portfolio
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Finding Stocks That Potentially Outperform Index or Portfolio
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BBCA and Your Portfolio
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PGAS and Your Portfolio
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Conclusion
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The Main Steps
Create your Portfolio and Portfolio Chart with CIX <GO>
Form a Ratio Chart from Stocks in your Portfolio and Portfolio Charts
Apply Technical Analysis to find which Stocks that will Outperform Portfolio Charts
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Another Bloomberg Features
You can look deeper you CIX Chart (Portfolio Chart) with SEAG <GO> to see how your portfolio react throughout the time (historically speaking)
If you create many CIX Charts, you can do Screening with EQS <GO> Which CIX Charts (Portfolio Charts) that are Oversold or Above
Middle Bollinger Band
You can also do General Check Up your Portfolio using PORT <GO> Is your Portfolio have too much Property stocks or your
Portfolio P/E is above P/E of JCI
“Backtesting” feature can be used to find what Indicators (and their parameters) which fit the best for your Portfolio Chart
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Any Questions ?
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Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CSA, CFTe
Working Experiences
Currently as Junior Investment Manager at Mandiri Healthcare
3 year as Technical Analyst at Trimegah Securities, AmCapital Indonesia and Anugerah Securindo Indah
1 year as Equity Sales at Danareksa Sekuritas
Certifications
Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) from IFTA
Bronwen Wood Award 2011 from IFTA
Certified Securities Analyst (CSA) from SASB Indonesia
(+62) 813 145 45 317
Contact Information