findings from the 2011 census options for the future - … · findings from the 2011 census &...
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Mark FranshamSocial Research Officer
What’s the future for the Census?
Findings from the 2011 Census&
Options for the future
2011 Census headlines• Rapid population growth over the last decade
More children More students
More workers More international migrants
• Ethnic and international diversity has increased
• More households live in flats, and more rent their home
• More families with children, single adults and ‘other’households
• More people travel to work by cycling or walking than by car
• Rapid change has been concentrated in a few areas
What do we get from the Census?A wide range of topics:• Population & household counts, age & sex• Ethnic group, country of birth, year of arrival in UK,
language• Housing: tenure, overcrowding, type of dwelling, number
of rooms, household composition• Economic activity: industry, occupation, qualifications,
employment, economic inactivity, students• Health: disability, self-reported health, caring• Transport: car ownership, mode and place of travel to
work
All broken down into:• Age and sex• Detailed characteristics e.g. disability by ethnic group etc.• Small areas within the city – down to Output Areas (~400
in Oxford)
Far more information than we can possibly analyse!
“Usual residents” on 27 March 2011
How wrong are these numbers?
What has been counted?
How has it been counted?
Residents on a Census
form
Estimate of residents who were not on a
Census form +
2011 population estimate: 151,900 +/- 3,000 (2%)
2011 Census headlines• Rapid population growth over the last decade
More children More students
More workers More international migrants
• Ethnic and international diversity has increased
• More households live in flats, and more rent their home
• More families with children, single adults and ‘other’households
• Fewer people travel to work by car
1911: 62,900
2011: 151,900
4,000 short-term international migrants (not included in ‘usually resident’population)
151,900 ‘usually resident’
population in 2011
12%16,400
133,200 household population living in 55,400 householdsaverage 2.4 people per household
18,700 people living in communal establishments(e.g. halls of residence)
7% / 3,700
34%4,700
since 2001
from 2.3
11% / 12,900
since 2001
2011 Census headlines• Rapid population growth over the last decade
More children More students
More workers More international migrants
• Ethnic and international diversity has increased
• More households live in flats, and more rent their home
• More families with children, single adults and ‘other’households
• Fewer people travel to work by car
-7%-600
39%2,600
Oxford population by age, 2011 Census compared to 2001 mid-year estimate (MYE)
under 5s
25-29 year-olds
32%4,100
over 75year-olds2011
Census2001 MYE
Growth in the student population
Very little change in the number of ‘all
student households’(an increase of 80 over the decade to
1,870)
4,700 more people living in communal establishments –
these will mostly be students in halls of
residence
5,800 more full-time students aged 18+ (30,000 in 2011)
Growth in birth rate means more young people in the next decade
9,50
0
7,70
0
6,40
0
4,00
0
9,80
0
8,80
0
8,00
0
4,20
0
9,40
0
8,80
0
8,80
0
5,10
0
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 17age group
resi
dent
pop
ulat
ion
2013 2018 2023
2,300
3,900
1,500
2,200
4,000
-100
0
-300
-400
-500
Part-time employee
Full-time employee
Self-employed
Unemployed
FT student (econ act)
Retired
Student (econ inact)
Looking after home/family
Long-term sick/disabled
Other econ inact
The working age population has been increased by students and more people in the labour market
Change in the working age population by economic activity, 2001-2011
2011 Census headlines• Rapid population growth over the last decade
More children More students
More workers More international migrants
• Ethnic and international diversity has increased
• More households live in flats, and more rent their home
• More families with children, single adults and ‘other’households
• Fewer people travel to work by car
2001
2011
81%
72% 28%
19%
19%
Total population 134,200
Total population 151,900
Born in UK Born outside UK
Oxford population by country of birth, 2001 and 2011
Most common non-UK countries of birth:
1. Poland2. USA3. India
4. Germany5. Pakistan
Population growth driven by international migration
2,400100
18,8001,700
7002,000
1,6004,4004,800
1,8003,6004,2004,500
1,9007009001,100
Irish
Gypsy/Irish Traveller
Other White
Mixed White and Black Caribbean
Mixed White and Black African
Mixed White and Asian
Other Mixed
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Chinese
Other Asian
Black African
Black Caribbean
Other Black
Arab
Other ethnic group
36% of the population is of non-White British ethnic origin, up from 23% in 2001
Non-white British ethnic groups, 2011
Decline in White British population
7,800
700
300
1,000
700
2,100
2,200
900
1,100
3,600
3,000
200
400
-6,400
-500
White British
Irish
Other White
Mixed White and Black Caribbean
Mixed White and Black African
Mixed White and Asian
Other Mixed
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Chinese
Other Asian
Black African
Black Caribbean
Other Black
Population change by ethnic group, 2001-2011
2011 Census headlines• Rapid population growth over the last decade
More children More students
More workers More international migrants
• Ethnic and international diversity has increased
• More households live in flats, and more rent their home
• More families with children, single adults and ‘other’households
• Fewer people travel to work by car
More apartment livingHouseholds by housing type, 2001 and 2011
5,22
0
16,9
00
16,1
10
10,9
10
2,61
0
740
150
5,22
0
17,1
60
16,2
50
14,7
50
3,51
0
650
160
Detachedhouse
Semi-detached
house
Terracedhouse
Purpose-built flat
Flat inconv.House
Flat incomm'lbuilding
Caravan /other
2001 2011
More private renting
Households by housing tenure, 2001 and 2011
13,7
40
14,0
40
610
10,9
90
10,7
80
1,58
0
13,2
80
12,6
00
960
11,8
30
15,6
30
1,08
0
Ownedoutright
Owned witha mortgage
or loan
Sharedownership
Socialrented
Privaterented
Living rentfree
2001 2011
2011 Census headlines• Rapid population growth over the last decade
More children More students
More workers More international migrants
• Ethnic and international diversity has increased
• More households live in flats, and more rent their home
• More families with children, single adults and ‘other’households
• Fewer people travel to work by car
Growth in households has been driven by families with children, single adults and ‘other’ households
Household growth by household composition, 2001-2011
+40+590
+80
+820
+420+500
+740+560
+50+80
+2,100
-650 -1,370
-70
-240
Single adult working age
Single pensioner
All pensioner family
Married, no children
Cohabiting, no children
All student households
All pensioner households
Other households
Married, dependent children
Cohabiting, dependent children
Lone parent, dependent children
Other HHs with dep. children
Married, non-dependent children
Cohabiting, non-dep. children
Lone parent, non-dep. children
Other households
Households with dependent children
Households with non-dependent children
Households without children
{
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2011 Census headlines• Rapid population growth over the last decade
More children More students
More workers More international migrants
• Ethnic and international diversity has increased
• More households live in flats, and more rent their home
• More families with children, single adults and ‘other’households
• More people travel to work by cycling or walking than by car
Travelling to work by car has become less common, whilst more people cycle or walk, or work from home
Method of travel to work by Oxford residents in employment, 2001-2011
8%
18%
38%
30%
4%
11%
19%
32%34%
3%
Work mainly ator from home
Publictransport
Car driver Bicycle/on foot Car passenger
2001 2011
High growth areas
High growth areas• Not typical student areas• 25% growth (8% in rest of city)• 40% growth in young adults and children• Growth of people in employment• Rapid increase in ethnic and national diversity
– Decline in ‘White British’ population – growth in all other ethnic groups, especially ‘Other White’ and South Asian
– 43% of population non-White British– 30% of people born outside UK (17% in 2001)
• Number of households increased by 17%– Increase in single adults, families with children and
HMOs• Average household size up to 2.6 (2.4 in rest of city)• All household growth in private rented sector (27% private
rented, up from 14% in 2001)• Most people live in houses, but increase in dwellings has
mostly been flats
More information…Statistics About Oxford webpageswww.oxford.gov.uk/oxfordstats
Oxford profile leaflet
Small area profilesNomiswww.nomisweb.co.uk
Yet to come: origin-destination travel to work data, workplace zone statistics, migration statistics
What else would be useful to know from the Census?