fire behavior and smoke transport from extreme...
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Fire Behavior and Smoke Transport from Extreme Events
David Peterson National Research Council – Monterey, CA
Edward Hyer, Naval Research Laboratory – Monterey, CA James Campbell, Naval Research Laboratory – Monterey, CA Jeremy Solbrig, Naval Research Laboratory – Monterey, CA Mike Fromm, Naval Research Laboratory – Washington, DC Johnathan Hair, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA Carolyn Butler, SSAI, Hampton, VA Marta Fenn, SSAI, Hampton, VA
NASA Air Quality Applied Sciences Team (AQAST 8), 12-02-2014, Atlanta, GA
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1. Can we use fire observations to identify potential for high-altitude smoke injection and extreme fire spread?
2. How can we use weather information to improve automated short-term forecasts of smoke emissions?
3. How can we combine fire observations and weather information to improve smoke emission estimates?
Motivation and Goals
Aqua MODIS Fire Pixels
Rim Fire
Goal: Short-term, regional forecasts of smoke emissions in near real-time!
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Previous Work in the North American Boreal Forest
3
Alaska
Smoke
Smoke
MODIS 1 July 2004
Study Year Advancement Peterson et al.
Atmos. Chem. & Phys. 2010 Assessment of conditions favorable for
dry lightning strikes and fire ignition
Peterson et al. Atmos. Env.
2013 Automated 24-hour prediction of large fire growth and decay
Peterson et al. J. Geophys. Res.
2014 Quantifying potential for high-altitude smoke injection using MISR and MODIS
Highest Smoke
MISR
5
4
3
2
1
0
(km)
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The 2013 Rim Fire
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Fire Details • Third largest fire in California's history
• Burned 30,000 ha in Yosemite National Park
• Endangered San Francisco’s power and water supply
• Two extreme fire spread events
• Two pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events Air Quality and Visibility Impacts • Regional: Smoke plume reached across
North America!
• Local: Nearby cities/attractions had unhealthy air quality for days
AOD at Reno, NV frequently > 2 Smoke Emission/Transport Forecasts • Typically assume persistent fire activity!
• Impacts from extreme fire behavior?
Downtown Reno, 23 August 2013
Photo: Reno Gazette-Journal
Aqua MODIS: 23 August ~2100 UTC
Reno, NV
Rim Fire
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Extreme Fire Spread & Pyroconvection
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USFS Fire Progression: 8/17 (Ignition) – 9/22
8/26
8/22-8/23 ~35% of total
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Fire Evolution from Airborne and Satellite Observations • USFS National InfraRed OPerationS (NIROPS, Red)
• GOES Fire Radiative Power (FRP, Black)
Instantaneous fire intensity plotted hourly
Related to biomass consumed, smoke released, and possibly burn severity
6 http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/news/3660/
• Two extreme fire spread and pyroCb events
• Fire weather indices (e.g. Haines Index) indicated extreme fire danger for entire primary burning period!
• Can we build an improved predictor?
PyroCbs
Peterson et al. (2014, BAMS)
Extreme Spread
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L H
Moving to the NE
Upper-Level Meteorology (500 hPa)
NARR 500 hPa Heights & Wind Barbs, 22 August 2013, 00Z (5 PM PDT, 21 August)
Can we use upper-air analyses to forecast extreme spread & pyroconvection?
Rim Fire
7 GOES West
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Identifying Extreme Fire Spread
Wind Speed • Most intense when a disturbance
was near the fire
• Remained strong at night!
Relative Humidity
• Below 35% for two nights during spread event #1
• Higher during spread event #2
• A reason for reduced spread? Implications • Fire weather indices are limited by
not including nocturnal and upper-level info!
• Top-down approach required for extreme spread forecasts?
• Nocturnal smoke emissions much higher than climatology! (Saide et al., in review, GRL) 8
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Smoke Plume Characteristics: Extreme Fire Spread • Extreme FRP, but atmospheric column was dry
• Large smoke plume, only a few capping pyroCu
• Unstable lower-atmosphere (Haines Index = 6) and deep mixed layer (3-5 km AGL).
• Produces a positive feedback loop for spread
• Enhanced by upper-level/nighttime conditions!
Plume Dominated Fire 9
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Aircraft Observations of the Rim Fire Smoke Plume
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NASA Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys
(SEAC4RS)
• Two flights using the NASA DC-8 8/26 (Houston, TX to Spokane, WA) 8/27 (Spokane, WA to Houston, TX)
• Map contains smoke emitted over 4-5 days (23-27 August)
• SEAC4RS likely sampled 48-50 hours of smoke (~24-26 August)
https://espo.nasa.gov/home/seac4rs/
NASA DC-8 Flights Pink: 8/26 Orange: 8/27
Terra 8/27/13
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Smoke Plume Altitude During Extreme Fire Spread
• DIAL/HSRL lidar sampled smoke emitted over 48-50 hrs (24-26 Aug.)
‒ Mixing with Idaho smoke? ‒ Idaho fires were decaying
Peterson et al. (2014, BAMS) NASA DC-8 aircraft during SEAC4RS (John Hair)
• Despite extreme FRP and pyroCu, nearly all smoke is below 3-5 km AGL!
• High enough for long distance transport.
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PyroCb Impact on Smoke Altitude
• Most efficient avenue for lofting smoke ‒ Aided by latent heat release
• Different meteorological conditions from extreme fire spread?
12
J. Campbell, NRL - Monterey
L
CALIOP, beginning at 1039 UTC on 20 August 2013
Observation PyroCb Spread
Smoke Altitude > 8 km < 5 km
FRP Mod/High* Extreme
Haines Index 6 6
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Toward the Prediction of PyroCbs
Extreme Plume Dominated Fire Fromm et al., 2010, BAMS
Pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb) Development • How much FRP?
• Low-level instability (Haines Index = 6)
• Moisture/latent heat release is required!
• What is the primary moisture source? ‒ Combustion ‒ Ambient atmosphere
• Recent modeling studies disagree!
• Hypothesis: pyroCb environment similar to traditional high-based dry thunderstorms?
‒ Ahead of approaching disturbance ‒ Mid-level moisture advection ‒ Upper-tropospheric lapse rate (UTLR)
> 7.5 oC/km ‒ Upper-level dynamics favorable for
rising motion e.g. Rorig and Ferguson, 1999; Nauslar et al., 2013
Tropopause
Surface
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Presence of Mid-Level Moisture Primary Burning Period Relative Humidity (Peterson et al., 2014, BAMS)
Ambient mid-upper level moisture seems necessary
for pyroCbs!
14 http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/#narr_datasets
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GOES-14 Aqua MODIS
Favorable Meteorology for PyroCb Development 8/19/2013 8/21/2013
• Located well ahead of approaching cutoff low
• Extreme fire danger (Haines Index = 6)
• Unstable/moist mid-upper troposphere
• In the vicinity of traditional dry T-storms
• Divergence at 250 hPa
15
8/19: 250 hPa Heights, Wind Barbs, & Convergence 1x10-5 s-1
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No PyroCb on 25 August?
16
Aqua MODIS: 2 PM PDT
PyroCu?
GOES 14: 5 PM PDT
Rim Fire
Convection • Located in vicinity of approaching short wave
• Extreme fire danger (Haines Index = 5)
• Unstable/moist mid-upper troposphere
• Devoid of traditional dry T-storms
• Convergence at 250 hPa
1x10-5 s-1
8/25: 250 hPa Heights, Wind Barbs, & Convergence
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Extreme Fire Spread • Initiated by the passage of an upper-level disturbance (e.g. cutoff/shortwave) • Upper-level info may be useful for regional applications using NWP data • Effect on nighttime wind speed and relative humidity is key! • Likely corresponds to highest FRP, no large pyroCbs observed!
PyroCb Hypotheses • Requires entrainment of ambient mid-level moisture • Meteorological environment is similar to high-based dry thunderstorms • Upper-level dynamics/thermodynamics are key! • More important for lofting of smoke particles, less important for fire spread
Future Work • Examine additional pyroCb and extreme spread events • Conduct tests over a variety of regions using global NWP input data. • Ultimate goal: produce a global fire and smoke altitude prediction tool that
can be used for operational smoke emissions modeling (e.g. NRL’s FLAMBE).
Conclusions and Future Work
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Thank You!
Acknowledgements and Related Publications Ralph Kahn (NASA), Jeff Reid (NRL), Mark Schug (USFS)
Brad Quayle (USFS), Bob Yokelson (U. Montana), Shelly Crook NASA SEAC4RS Science Team, DIAL/HSRL Lidar Group National Research Council Postdoctoral Fellowship
*Peterson, D., Hyer, E., Campbell, J., Fromm, M., Hair, J., Butler, C., Fenn, M.: The 2013 Rim
Fire: Implications for Predicting Extreme Fire Spread, Pyroconvection, and Smoke Emissions, BAMS, http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00060.1.
Peterson, D., Hyer, E., & Wang. J.: Quantifying the Potential for High-Altitude Smoke Injection in the North American Boreal Forest using the Standard MODIS Fire Products and Sub-Pixel-Based Methods, Journal of Geophysical Research, 2014.
Peterson, D., Hyer, E., & Wang. J.: A short-term predictor of satellite-observed fire activity in the North American boreal forest: toward improving the prediction of smoke emissions, Atmospheric Environment, 71, 304-310, 2013.
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Near Surface Meteorology (850 hPa)
8/19 NNE, 5 kts Downhill
PyroCb #1
8/20 S, 5-10 kts
Uphill
8/21 SSW, 15-20 kts
Uphill
PyroCb #2
8/22 SW, 15-20 kts
Uphill Spread Event #1
No PyroCb!
L L
L
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Upper-Level Meteorology: Spread Event #2
NARR 500 hPa Heights & Wind Barbs, 25 August 2013, 21Z (2 PM PDT)
Convection
Periods of extreme fire spread initiated by an upper-level disturbance? Second spread event preceded by a shortwave trough…
21
GOES 14
Rim Fire
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Data Gap
PyroCu Extreme Spread
GOES PyroCb Detection Algorithm PyroCb #1 PyroCb #2
• BT11 < LCL Temp. (Clouds)
Traditional Convection
Input Data: • 12x12 pixel box (~48 km) • 11 µm min brightness temp. (BT11) • Max 4-11 µm BT difference (BTD) • LCL Temp. (NARR-derived)
PyroCb (ice cloud): • BT11 < -35oC • BTD > 50oC
Marginal PyroCb (non-ice): • -35oC < BT11 < -20oC • BTD > 50oC
General PyroCu (small): • BT11 < LCL Temp. • Confirmed visually by
MODIS/GOES 100% Cloudy!
22
µ µ
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Using a 12 x 12 pixel box… Dashed black = 11 um max Solid black = 11 um min Blue = clouds, e.g. min 11 um BT < LCL temp. (mean of 0.85 C) Green = 4-11 um max Red = GOES FRP
No fire data retrieved. Cloud obscuration?
PyroCb threshold for 4-11 um (+50 C)?
Threshold for min 11 um (-35 C)?
This may actually be pyroCu?
Individual PyroCb
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Fire Weather Index (FWI) Using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR, 32 km)
Extreme
> 6 mm > 1 mm
1. Do fire observations contain information to identify potential for high smoke injection and extreme fire spread?
2. How can we use weather information to improve automated short-term forecasts of emissions for AQ models?
3. How can we combine fire observations and weather information to improve smoke emission estimates in near-real-time and retrospectively?
Toward Building a Fire Prediction Model
Solid black: mean FWI Green: daily precipitation Dashed Black: max or min
Limitations of Fire Weather Indices • Extreme fire danger during
majority of Rim Fire
• Representativeness error near small-scale precip
• Lack upper-level meteorology!
See Peterson et al., 2013, Atmos. Env. 24
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Rim Fire PyroCb Synoptic Pattern
8/19 PyroCb 8/21 Marginal PyroCb
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250 hPa Convergence Upper Trop. Lapse Rate
Tropopause Height
Rim Fire Upper Troposphere
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700-400 hPa Mean RH
700-400 hPa Mean Theta-e 700-400 hPa Mean Omega
500 hPa Vorticity Advection
Rim Fire Middle Troposphere
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Mid-Elevation Haines Index
Mid-Elevation Continuous Haines Index
Boundary Layer Height
Rim Fire Lower Troposphere
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Sfc. RH Sfc. Wind Speed
Sfc. Temp.
Night mean
Day mean
Rim Fire Surface
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Direction of spread 8/17-8/19
Direction of spread after 8/19
Wind Direction Relative to Topography
5 PM PDT, 8/22 SSW, 15 Kts
L
24-hr Spread: > 40,000 Acres
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Huntsville, Alabama HSRL, 8/19
Additional PyroCbs & High-Altitude Smoke During SEAC4RS
Date (2013) Fire State 8/8 Beaver Creek Idaho 8/8 McCan Idaho 8/9 Pony, Elk? Idaho
8/10 Elk Idaho 8/10 NA Canada? 8/12 Pony Idaho 8/13 Pony Idaho
HYSPLIT Backward Trajectories
8/16 Gold Pan 8/16 Beaver Creek
Selected PyroCbs
From Mike Fromm, NRL - DC
Time (UTC)
PyroCb impact on smoke properties?
31 http://hsrl.ssec.wisc.edu/by_site/
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Highest Smoke
0
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000 Height (m)
1000
MISR Plume Height Data
Radiant heat drives plume height!
Motivation: • Only ~21% of plumes reach the free
troposphere • These are the plumes that will have
widespread impacts
• Most relevant for large-scale smoke transport!
Goal: • Identify fire characteristics related to
high-altitude injections
Key Results: • Combining pixel and sub-pixel fire data
improves plume height characterization
• Sub-pixel fire area and temperature can predict higher injections
Work in Progress:
• Integrate RS and weather info to develop a skillful predictor of pyroconvection!
Mean Fire Temp: 663 K Total Fire Area: 0.17 km2
Radiant Heat Flux: 14.6 kW/m2
Maximum Fire Temp.
Peterson et al. (2014, JGR)
Quantifying Potential for High-Altitude Smoke Injections
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The 2013 Rim Fire
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Air Quality & Visibility Impacts
• Regional: Smoke plume reached across North America!
• Local: Reno, NV AOD frequently > 2
Fire Details • Third largest fire in California's history
• Burned 30,000 ha in Yosemite National Park
• Endangered San Francisco’s power and water supply
• Two pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events
Terra 8/27/13