first quarter 2007 - air canada...factors" section of air canada’s 2006 annual md&a dated...

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First Quarter 2007 May 11, 2007

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Page 1: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

First Quarter 2007May 11, 2007

Page 2: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

Table of Contents

• Operating Statistics

• Revenue Highlights

• Expense Highlights

Page 3: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

Air Canada Services Operating Results Improve by $46 mln

(millions)

Q1 2007

Q1 2006

Change Fav./(Unfav.)

Oper. Revenue $ 2,534 $ 2,394 $ 140

Oper. Expense 2,612 2,518 (94)

Oper. Loss (78) (124) 46

Non-oper. Income (Expense) 8 (40) 48

Loss Before NCI, FX & Tax (70) (164) 94

Non-controlling Interest (2) (4) 2

FX Gain 33 13 20

Recovery of Income Taxes 5 29 (24)

Loss $ (34) $ (126) $ 92

Page 4: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

Q1 Net Interest Expense Down $15 mln

(millions)

Q1 2007

Change

Fav./(Unfav.)

Net Interest Expense $ (29) $ 15

Gain on Sale 7 5

Other Non-Operating Inc. 30 28

Total Non-Operating Income $ 8 $ 48

$34 mln gain on derivatives

Page 5: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

Q1 2007Actual vs Prior Year

ASMs RPMs PLF Yield RASM Rev

Canada 2.2% 7.2% 3.8 PP 1.4% 6.4% 8.7%

US Transborder 8.1% 5.5% 1.8 PP 1.3% 3.6% 4.2%

Atlantic 2.1% 4.6% 2.0 PP 2.0% 4.5% 6.7%

Pacific 0.9% 3.2% 1.9 PP 4.8% 7.2% 8.1%

Latin Amer. & Other 1.8% 3.1% 1.0 PP 1.0% 2.2% 4.1%

Total 3.1% 5.1% 1.5 PP 1.6% 3.5% 6.8%

Total Expense 3.7%

Total CASM 0.6%

Total CASM excl. Fuel 0.8%

Page 6: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

North American Growth Accounts for ¾ of Overall Capacity Increase

(Y-O-Y Changes in Capacity)

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Canada U.S. Oth. Int'l Total

Q1 2006/2005 Q2 2006/2005 Q3 2006/2005 Q4 2006/2005 Q1 2007/2006

% Change in ASMs

Page 7: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

Strong Traffic Outpaces Capacity Growth in All Sectors but U.S.

(Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Canada U.S. Oth. Int'l Total

Q1 2006/2005 Q2 2006/2005 Q3 2006/2005 Q4 2006/2005 Q1 2007/2006

% Change in RPMs

Page 8: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

Yield Performance Improves in all Sectors from 4th Quarter's Pace

(Y-O-Y Changes in Passenger Yield)

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Canada U.S. Oth. Int'l Total

Q1 2006/2005 Q2 2006/2005 Q3 2006/2005 Q4 2006/2005 Q1 2007/2006

% Change in Yield

Page 9: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

System RASM Growth Strengthens on Better Yield and Higher LF

(Y-O-Y Changes in Revenue per ASM)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Canada U.S. Oth. Int'l Total

Q1 2006/2005 Q2 2006/2005 Q3 2006/2005 Q4 2006/2005 Q1 2007/2006

% Change in RASM

Page 10: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

System Revenue Growth Stable as Stronger Domestic and Intn'l Revenues Offset Lower Transborder Growth

(Y-O-Y Changes in Passenger Revenue)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Canada U.S. Oth. Int'l Total

Q1 2006/2005 Q2 2006/2005 Q3 2006/2005 Q4 2006/2005 Q1 2007/2006

% Change in Revenue

Page 11: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

Canada –Q1 RASM Jumps 6.4% Mostly on Load Factor

Load Factor

0

5

10

-4

-2

0

2

4PP Change

Capacity (ASM)

Y-O-Y Change

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

% Change

0

5

10

15

Yield RASM

0

5

10

15% Change% Change

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Page 12: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

US Transborder – RASM Declines 3.6% as Weaker Load Factor Combines With a Soft Yield

Y-O-Y Change

Capacity (ASM) Load Factor% Change PP Change

-5

0

5

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Yield RASM % Change % Change

-10-505

101520

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Page 13: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

Atlantic –Strong Yield and a Jump in LF Combine to Lift RASM 4.5%

-2

0

2

4

-10

-5

0

5

10

15% Change

0

2

4

6

0

2

4

Yield RASM

Load Factor

% Change

PP Change

% Change

Capacity (ASM)

Y-O-Y Change

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Page 14: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

Pacific –7.2% RASM Growth on 4.8% Jump in Yield and Solid LF

Y-O-Y Change

Load Factor

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

% ChangeCapacity (ASM)

PP Change

0

1

2

3

4

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

RASM

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Yield % Change% Change

-5

0

5

10

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Page 15: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

Caribbean, Latin America & Australia –RASM Growth Continues Equally on Yield and Load Factor

-2

0

2

4

6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6% Change

0

5

10

15

0

4

8

12

Yield RASM

Load Factor

% Change

PP Change

% Change

Capacity (ASM)

Y-O-Y Change

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Page 16: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

Total –System RASM Lifts 3.5% on Higher Yield and LF

-2

0

2

4

6CASM RASM

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

-2

0

2

4

0

2

4

6% Change

0

2

4

6

8

10

Yield RASM

Load FactorPP Change

Capacity (ASM)

Y-O-Y Change

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007

% Change % Change

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007 2006 2007

Page 17: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

Average Salary Up 5.3%; Employee Levels Down 501 or 2.1%.

(Y-O-Y Change – Average Salaries & Employees)

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Q2'06 Q3'06 Q4'06 Q1'07

Average Salaries Employees

% Change Y-O-Y

Page 18: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

Cost/Litre Down 1.1% While Fuel Productivity Declines 0.7%

(Fuel Productivity & Unit Cost)

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Q1'06 Q2'06 Q3'06 Q4'06 Q1'07

Fuel Productivity (ASMs/Lt) Fuel Cost (Cdn cts/Lt)

% Change Y-O-Y

Page 19: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

"Other" Category up 5.3% on Air Canada Vacation Ground Package Costs

RPM

s

ASM

s

S W

& B

A/C

Fuel

A/C

Rent

Com

miss

.

User

Fee

s

Mtc

e.

Com

& IT

Food

/ Ba

rDe

prec

.

Cap.

Pur

ch.

Oth

er

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

% Change Y-O-Y

Q1 2007/2006

Page 20: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

Unit Cost* Up 1.7% Due Higher Average Salaries, Mtce. Expenses, ACV Ground Packages and Weather

(Cost Per ASM)

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Q2'06 Q3'06 Q4'06 Q1'07

% Change Y-O-Y

* 2006 excluding special charges

Page 21: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation

Caution Concerning Forward-looking Information:Certain statements made in this Q1 2007 presentation are forward-looking statements, which are, by their nature, based on assumptions and are subject to important risks and uncertainties. Any forecasts or forward-looking predictions or statements cannot be relied upon due to, amongst other things, changing external events and general uncertainties of the business. Results indicated in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results due to a number of factors, including without limitation, energy prices, general industry, market and economic conditions, war, terrorist attacks, changes in demand due to the seasonal nature of the business, the ability to reduce operating costs and employee counts, employee relations, labour negotiations or disputes, pension issues, currency exchange andinterest rates, changes in laws, regulatory developments or proceedings, pending and future litigation and actions by third parties as well as the factors identified throughout this Q1 2007 presentation and, in particular, those identified in the "Risk Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation represent the Corporation’s expectations as of May 10, 2007 and are subject to change after such date. However, the Corporation disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required under applicable securities regulations.

Page 22: First Quarter 2007 - Air Canada...Factors" section of Air Canada’s 2006 annual MD&A dated February 14, 2007. The forward-looking statements contained in this Q1 2007 presentation