flacs-risk - gexcon€¦ · explosion overpressure contours (up to 300 mbar) for frequency...

FLACS-Risk: Product presentation FLUG May 2016

FLACS-RiskUnique 3D risk modelling software


Outline

►FLACS-Risk Overview

Motivation for developing FLACS-Risk

Features of FLACS-Risk v1.0

Development process and timeline

Possible future added modules

►FLACS-Risk Interface Demo

►Case Study: Hydrogen Refuelling Station

►Early Adopters Programme


►3D visualisation of risk to:

Efficiently communicate and improve risk-owners understanding of safety issues

Reduces the cost of design, engineering and construction

►More efficient workflows reduces man hours and lead-time of running simulations by more than 25 %

►Will standardise methodology for safety studies

FLACS-Risk is a new, unique software solution

for 3D CFD risk modelling and visualisation.


Frequency of exceeding explosion overpressure

1.00E-07

1.00E-06

1.00E-05

1.00E-04

1.00E-03

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Pressure (barg)

Fre

qu

en

cy

(p

er

ye

ar)

Local panels

Global panels

Traditional manner of reporting explosion study results

Drag forces [kPa]

Object 10-4/year 10-5/year

Piping in Module M21

65 380

Motivation


Motivation

FLACS-Risk: NEW 3D risk visualisation of 10-4/year Explosion overpressures

However local hot spot of 1.5-2 bar

Global wall value approx. 1.0 bar

Global module value approx. 0.5 bar


FLACS-Risk Development

►50%-75% of work in initial FLACS-Risk development is building the framework to efficiently move from running a hand full (1-20) to many (100s-1000s) simulations

One of the Amazon distribution centres


FLACS-Risk Initial v1.0 ReleaseOur goal: Allow users to easily and efficiently perform risk-based safety studies using FLACS.

Functionality Primarily focus on input to design (e.g. Design Accidental Load)

Limitations v1.0 release: Ventilation, dispersion and fire modelling Steady state and transient modelling UKOOA ignition model Single module/area


Example: Event Tree in FLACS-Risk

Ignition t=0s

Ignition t=60s

Ignition t=600s

Ventilation

Results

Flammable

and/or Toxic

Dispersion

Results

Fire Results

Explosion

Results

In case of burn back after explosion

FLACS-Risk v1.1 & v1.2

FLACS-Risk v1.0


Example Reporting: Dispersion► Improved intermediate results reporting (e.g. box plots)


Example Reporting: Risk Contours

1D

2D

3D

1D “exceedance curves” for specified targets (e.g. fire walls, equipment etc)

2D and 3D risk visualisation (showing spacialdistribution of risk based loads)

Show contributions from different events and/or scenario properties (e.g. gas type, release rate etc.)

Freq

uen

cy[1

/yr]

Overpressure [barg]


3D Risk Visualisation


FLACS-Risk Development Timeline

FLACS-Risk development started

FLACS-Risk v1.0

Continuous development, optimisation, validation and testing

Internal Testing

Today2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Risk frameworkdevelopment started

External early adopters

FLACS-Risk v1.1

FLACS-Risk v1.2

FLACS-Risk v2.0

► FLACS-Risk v1.0 • Flammable & Toxic dispersion and jet fires only• Steady state only• Focus on input to design (e.g. Heat radiation, cloud size)

► FLACS-Risk v1.1• Extend functionality to include explosions • Multiple modules/area• Seamless integration with FLACS-HPCC (High Performance Computing)

► FLACS-Risk v1.2• Add time dependent release and ignition model

► FLACS-Risk v2.0• Improve/develop models/methodology/event trees

Q3-Q4 2016

Q1-Q2 2017

2017

2017 or 2018

Target release dates


Possible Future FLACS-Risk Add-on Modules

►Detection add-on

Optimise gas and fire detection layout

►Quantitative Risk Assessment add-on (offshore)

Risk to personnel and people

Escalation

Potentially escape route impairment

►FEA add-on

Interface with finite element (FEA) structural response modelling software in FLACS-Risk

Single Degree of Freedom (SDOF) models

FLACS-Risk: Interface Demo


Interface Demo Overview

Visual prototype: Final product may look different


Interface Demo Video

Visual prototype: Final product may look different

FLACS-Risk:Hydrogen Refuelling Station Case Study


Case Study: Hydrogen Refuelling Station

Process units and scenarios

Pressure

[barg]

Max leak diameter

[mm]

Release rate

[kg s-1]Container with compressor unit 207 19.00 3.55High pressure storage tanks 1 034 7.16 2.00Tube trailer 207 12.60 1.59Dispenser 700 7.16 1.50

Process units and scenarios Releases [1/yr-]

Jet fires[1/yr]

Explosion[1/yr]

Container with compressor unit 2.3E-03 5.1E-05 2.6E-05High pressure storage tanks 1.1E-03 2.5E-05 1.3E-05Tube trailer 2.2E-03 5.2E-05 2.6E-05Dispenser 7.1E-04 3.8E-05 1.9E-05

Summary of event frequencies for the risk analysis

Summary of isolatable inventory properties


Case study: Hydrogen Refuelling Station

FLUG Meeting – ExxonMobil (UTTC), October 16th 2014, Houston, TX

Case Study: Hydrogen Refuelling StationHeat radiation contours with frequency exceeding 10-6 yr-1. Frequency contours, from 10-06 to 10-04 yr-1, for 5 kW m-2 radiation load.

Explosion overpressure contours (up to 300 mbar) for frequency exceeding 10-6 yr-1. Fire radiation location based lethality frequencies, from 10-06 to 10-04 yr-1.

FLACS-Risk:Early Adopter Programme


Early Adopter Programme►You can get: Early access to the world’s #1 decision making tool for asset design

Access to a consultant who is dedicated to support your project

Training, support and competence building: Advisory/Jumpstart services are central to the delivery

A free (time limited) FLACS-Risk license

►We get: Key references to use in promoting FLACS-Risk

Valuable feedback on our product


Early Adopter Programme: How

►We need five early adopters globally

Customers that do not yet have much experience with FLACS-Risk studies

Minimum three risk-owners: National and international oil and gas companies

Target personnel: Site HSE Managers, Project responsible


Early Adopter Programme: What

►Project Requirements

Small to medium sized facility: both with respect to number of leak locations and calculation domain

Flammable/toxic gas dispersion and/or jet-fire risk studies

Specific issue where 3D risk results may provide additional value:

• Some 3D aspect in project: Offshore platform, terrain, buildings or walls near releases

• Focus on input to design, but may also investigate risk to site personnel on small enough sites

No fast-track projects: Delivery dates needs to be flexible +/- two months

Low-hanging fruit: re-do an old project


Summary and Conclusion

FLACS-Risk is a new, unique software solution for 3D CFD risk modelling and visualisation.

►3D visualisation of risk to:

Efficiently communicate and improve risk-owners understanding of safety issues

Reduces the cost of design, engineering and construction

►More efficient workflows reduces man hours and lead-time of running simulations by more than 25 %

►Will standardise methodology for safety studies


Q&A and discussion

Thank you for your attention!

flacs-risk - gexcon€¦ · explosion overpressure contours (up to 300 mbar) for frequency...

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