flash flood forecasting in israel · 2019-10-08 · nahal tzafit . what went wrong? • official...
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Flash Flood Forecasting in
Israel
Alissa Razy, Forecaster
Israel Meteorological Service
WGCEF, Dublin Ireland, Sept. 2019
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Three main climate zones
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small catchments in the Dead Sea region
Israel Water Authority (2012) The Natural Water Resources Between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River. The Hydrological Service, Jerusalem.
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Flash Flood Forecasts
Occasional showers and isolated TS in most
regions
Risk of flash floods in the eastern and southern
wadis (river bed)
forecast issued
forecast valid
forecast issued Isolated showers and TS in most regions
Risk of flash floods in the eastern and southern
wadis (river bed)
forecast valid
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High risk of flash floods in the eastern and
southern wadis 25/04 00:00-27/04 16:00
Flash Flood Watch/Warning
watch issued
warning issued (update) Risk of flash floods in the eastern and
southern wadis 26/04 09:00-26/04 19:00
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nakeb.co.il (bizmen)
Nahal Tzafit
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What Went Wrong?
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• Official authority (warnings)
• Laws and regulations
• No hydrometeorologists or hydrology experts
• Low-resolution warnings
Flash Flood Forecasts
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Flash Flood Warnings
Risk of flash floods in the eastern and
southern wadis 26/04 09:00-26/04 19:00
Israel Water Authority (2012) The Natural Water Resources Between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River. The Hydrological Service, Jerusalem.
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Flash Flood Event
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Flash Flood Event
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Precipitation Forecasts
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Precipitation Forecasts
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• The Hydrological Service model
– Meteorology (QPF)
– Flow rate (river beds)
Hydrometeorology
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floods.online
Hydrometeorology
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• The Hydrological Service model
– Meteorology (QPF)
– Flow rate (river beds)
• Flood forecasts produced “automatically”
– confusion!
Hydrometeorology
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• National flood prediction centre
– National Emergency Management Authority
(NEMA)
– National Security Council
– Location: IMS
– Organization: the Israel Water Authority & IMS
– 3-5 hydrometeorologists (one hired so far)
The Future of Flash Flood Forecasts
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• develop new high-res model + verification
• establish collaboration & division of labour
– collaborate on general forecast
– flood forecast
– watches & warnings
– forecast disagreement – course of action?
– no hydrometeorologist (nights, weekends, holidays)
(Future) National Flood Prediction Centre
Ayala Tours
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Forecast process
Analysis and objective numerical forecasts
Hydrological
forecasters
Website
Dashboard system
Hydrological models
Emergency response
clients Forecasting and monitoring rain
General public
Rain forecast
Decision making
operational forecasters
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• training to begin 2019-2020
rainy season
• 2020-2021 operational?
(Future) National Flood Prediction Centre
ekeidar Creative Commons Licence
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Thank you for your attention!