US Airfare Trend Report

Week of February 9, 2015

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 14, 2015 – March 21, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 7, 2015  

ABOUT OUR DATA

•  We observed the cohort of non-stop US domestic airfares departing February 14, 2015 to March 21, 2015, or roughly on a one-week to six-weeks forward basis.

•  These fares were observed over a seven-day period ending February 7, 2015. •  Most commercial carriers in the US are represented.

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 14, 2015 – March 21, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 7, 2015  

Notes •  Virgin America is visibly pushing fares higher, relative to other carriers. This week, we are

seeing a vast number of flights — nearly two-thirds — get repriced upward as the departure dates approach.

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 14, 2015 – March 21, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 7, 2015  

Notes •  The effects of a median $35 fare hike on 64% of flights will likely be noticed by those who

have yet to book their flights. •  We again see a number of carriers’ median price shifts of +20/-20, indicating that $20

continues to be a popular interval by which fares are managed.

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 14, 2015 – March 21, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 7, 2015  

Notes •  Coincidentally (as far as we can tell), the number 20 also showed up again as 20% of flights

from JFK, IND, ATL, and ANC experienced fare decreases. •  Spokane is a familiar name in the fare volatility charts above, but the median increase is rather

subdued at $17.

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 14, 2015 – March 21, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 7, 2015  

Notes •  Nearly 1/3 of Omaha flights got priced down by a median of $50 •  Flights on most routes to the airports above are open to future fare prediction on

getFLYR.com

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 14, 2015 – March 21, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 7, 2015  

Notes •  While fares from SAV by and large remained very steady, a single fare did see a $583 drop within

this cohort. •  In general, the median fare swings above stood for less than 10% of all flights from their respective

airports, with the exception of West Palm Beach, which saw 19% of its fares drop.

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 14, 2015 – March 21, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 7, 2015  

Notes •  Interestingly, a combined six flight flying to Wilmington and Santa Barbara gapped up by

$366.50, indicating another possible pre-set price change interval.

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 14, 2015 – March 21, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 7, 2015  

Notes •  Broadest fare decreases

hit ATL/LGA, ATL/PHL, LAS/LAX, and LAX/PHX

•  On the other side, the least volatile fares this past week were found on the Chicago – SF and – LA routes.

•  The high stakes Dallas/Chicago route strikes again. This time, one-fifth each of airfares got priced upward or downward – by a lot.

TRENDS AMONG 25 MAJOR AIRPORT ROUTES

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 14, 2015 – March 21, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 7, 2015  

ABOUT FLYR

FLYR is a data science company that constructs technologies to predict and mitigate future airfare volatility. Our goal is to develop tools that are able to neutralize uncertainty in travel planning. In the (near) future, we want such tools to be as ubiquitous and easy to use as a weather forecast. Our open airfare prediction beta is currently available at http://www.getFLYR.com.   In studying the frequent changes in airfares, we’re constantly gathering and analyzing a huge body of fare information. From this raw input, our team of data scientists and researchers collect and curate a number of key points to present in this report on a periodic basis — we hope it is of interest to travelers and industry observers alike. We welcome your comments and questions, as well as ideas and suggestions for future reports.    

Steady Travels, FLYR Research

© 2014-2015 FLYR Inc. All Rights Reserved.   All data, charts, and commentary are provided for informational purposes only. Permission to reproduce the contents contained herein must be obtained with prior consent of FLYR Inc. For reproduction/distribution authorizations or other media requests, please contact:   Andrew Jing FLYR Inc. andrew@FLYRLabs.com 89 De Boom St., San Francisco, CA 94080