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R) Beyond Kyoto, Aarhus, 6 March 2009

AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE MITIGATION

Nadia ScialabbaSenior Environment Officer

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t (N

R) Climate influences agriculture

1. Climate change is a challenge in the twenty-first century, also for food systems • 1.4 billion ha

for crop cultivation

• more than 2.5 billion ha for pasture

• 4 billion ha forested land (of which 5% plantations)

~ 60% Earth surface

Some facts

extreme precipitation ...

extreme precipitation ...

... extended drought periods... extended drought periods

= less reliable rainfall= less reliable rainfall

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R) Agriculture influences climate

2. Agriculture, rural livelihoods, sustainable management of natural resources and food security are linked

3. Successful adaptation and mitigation responses can be achieved within the goals of World Food Summit, MDGs and UNFCCC

• Agriculture, including forestry, emits ~ 32 % of global GHG:

• 25 % CO2 , largely from deforestation

• 50 % CH4, rice and enteric fermentation

• > 75 % N2O, largely from fertilizers

Some facts

BurningBurningBurningBurning

uncontrolled uncontrolled grazinggrazinguncontrolled uncontrolled grazinggrazing

TillageTillageTillageTillage

= destruction of soil organic matter

= destruction of soil organic matter

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R) Main mitigation strategies

Forestry:1. Reduce deforestation and degradation of tropical

forests (REDD)2. Promote Sustainable Forest Management (SFM)3. Conduct Forest Restoration (FR), including

Afforestation and Reforestation (A/R)

Agriculture:1. Improve agroforestry practices2. Promote spatial and temporal integration of crop and

livestock (e.g. rotations of crops and corall)3. Enhance soil carbon sequestration via soil biomass

restoration and reduced tillage

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R) Mitigation potential agriculture and forest

G tonnes CO2e / year

Global emissions 15-25

Agriculture 1.5-5

Methane, N2O 0.3-1.5

Agroforestry 0.5-2

Agricultural soils 0.5-1.5

Forest 2.5-12

REDD 1-4

SFM 1-5

FR 0.5-3

Bioenergy 0.1-1

Total 4-18

Global reductions potential in 2030 correspond to those needed to achieve stabilization of atmospheric concentrations between 450-550 ppm CO2, under a mid-range IPCC SRES

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R) Carbon sequestration of croplands

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R) Global GHG emissions by agriculture

Biomass burning CH4 and N2O

12%

Paddy rice CH411%

Enteric fermentation CH432%

Manure handling CH4 and N2O

7%

Fertilisers N2O38%

5.1 - 6.1 Gt

CO2-eq yr-1

Emissions of the agricultural sector (Smith et al., 2007)

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No industrial N-fertilizers10%

C-sequestration potential on worlds permanent crop

area (0.4 t C ha-1 yr-1)3%

Reduction in N2O emission

8%

C-sequestration potential on worlds pasture area

(0.2 t C ha-1 yr-1)44%

C-sequestration potential on worlds arable land area

(0.4 t C ha-1 yr-1)35%

5.6 - 5.9

Gt CO2-eq yr-1

GHG reduction and mitigation potential in the agricultural sector (calculated by Niggli & Fließbach)

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Adaptation and mitigation synergies

1. Increase irrigation and fertilization to 1. maintain production in marginal semi-arid regions2. enhance the ability of soils to sequester carbon

2. Under increased precipitation scenario, shift from fallow systems to continuous cultivation

3. Avoid deforestation, enhance forest management, agroforestry and practices conducive to soil carbon sequestration in agricultural soils

By adapting to climate

change and climate

variability –

a necessity to sustain

food production –

agriculture can

contribute to climate

mitigation

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R) Agriculture and GHG reduction

(IPCC/AR4 recommendations)

1. Crop rotations and farming system design

2. Nutrient and manure management

3. Livestock management, pasture and fodder supply improvement

4. Maintaining fertile soils and restoration of degraded lands

Ecological and organic agriculture offers such a multi-targeted and multi-functional strategy

Currently available

knowledge and

technologies would be

sufficient to counter GHG emissions of

the entire agricultural and forestry

sectors combined

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ECV are 13 measurable terrestrial properties and attributes to monitor the physical, biological and chemical processes affecting climate

Identified by GCOS and endorsed by the UNFCCC. Recognized by GEO and official task of GEOSS.

• The Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) is currently assessing the status of the development of standards for each ECV in the terrestrial domain

• River discharge • Lake Levels • Ground Water • Water Use • Snow Cover • Glaciers and Ice Caps • Permafrost and Seasonably

Frozen Ground

• Albedo• Land Cover • Fraction of Absorbed

Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR)

• Leaf Area Index (LAI) • Biomass • Fire Disturbance

Terrestrial Essential Climatic Variables

Relevant to forest mapping and carbon tracking

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R) Why terrestrial ECVs?

To understand the climate system (including atmospheric, hydrological, biogeochemical and energy balances) and especially, determine the effects of feedback or amplification mechanisms

To monitor climate change and its effects

To model scenarios and analyze potential impacts of extreme events

To implement and monitor effective adaptation and mitigation strategies

To assess availability and manage resources

To assess risk and vulnerability, water access, food production, food security, sustainable development

To implement and monitor policy and international agreements

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R) FAO datasets for GHG inventories

• Global Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) includes data on forest and other areas, growing stock, biomass stock, Carbon stock, forest fires, wood removals

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FAO datasets for GHG inventories

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AFRICOVER: East Africa Module

FAO datasets for GHG inventories

• assess carbon sources and sinks

• evaluate the potential for carbon sequestration

• evaluate the potential for reducing emissions

To:

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R) Conclusions (yes, we can)

1. From being a problem, agriculture can become a major solution in addressing climate change

2. Farming may be climate neutral, as 80% of agricultural emissions can be compensated by soil carbon sequestration through ecological/organic management

3. Market mechanisms should encourage local food supply chains and responsible consumption

4. Adequate financial mechanisms are required to encourage long-term investments in soil rehabilitation (e.g. multi-lateral system for climate-friendly farming?)

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R) Conclusions (yes, we must)

1. The Post-Kyoto mechanism must seriously address agriculture and relevant assessment methodologies

2. Beyond 2050, land-based mitigation from avoided deforestation, agroforestry and soil carbon sequestration in agricultural soils, necessary to stabilize emissions in the short term, would have largely reached their potential

3. This entails an urgent need to invest in the development of new green technologies and land management options that mitigate emissions of GHG while making agriculture carbon neutral

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R) Beyond Kyoto, Aarhus, 5-7 March 2009

For detailed info:

2008 Summit webpage: www.fao.org/foodclimate

Climate webpage: www.fao.org/climatechange

Organic webpage: www.fao.org/organicag