forecast verification working group on extended range prediction ministry of earth system sciences,...
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Forecast Verification
Working group on Extended Range Prediction Ministry of Earth System Sciences, India
Forecast of Monsoon Onset over Kerala Based on 16 May 2013: 29 May 2013
Onset date forecasts are obtained from each 11
member of CFSv2 45 day forecast. Then ensemble mean is given as the final
forecasted onset date.Y axis on each panel is in
mm/day for rainfall (bars) and m/s for
850hPa wind(green line). Red circle is the onset
date and also written at the top of each panel
Onset declared by IMD: 1st June 2013
NCEP/TRMMAnalysis
Wind (850hPa)and R/F
Verification
CFSv2 GFSbc
F/C from16May IC
F/C from16May IC
NCEP/TRMMAnalysis
Wind (850hPa)and R/F
Verification
CFSv2 GFSbc
F/C from26May IC
F/C from26May IC
Spatial pentad mean pattern
Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day)For period 1-5 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 1-5 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 31May
P4-lead, IC 16May
P3-lead, IC 21May
P2-lead, IC 26May
GFSbcCFS
Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 1-5 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 1-5 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 31May
P4-lead, IC 16May
P3-lead, IC 21May
P2-lead, IC 26May
GFSbcCFS
Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day)For period 6-10 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 6-10 June, 2013
GFSbcCFS
P1-lead, IC 5June
P4-lead, IC 21May
P3-lead, IC 26May
P2-lead, IC 31May
Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 6-10 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 6-10 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 5June
P4-lead, IC 21May
P3-lead, IC 26May
P2-lead, IC 31May
GFSbcCFS
Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day)For period 11-15 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 11-15 June, 2013
GFSbcCFS
P1-lead, IC 10June
P4-lead, IC 26May
P3-lead, IC 31May
P2-lead, IC 5June
Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 11-15 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 11-15 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 10June
P4-lead, IC 26May
P3-lead, IC 31May
P2-lead, IC 5June
GFSbcCFS
CFS-GFS Forecast VerificationOver Homogenous RegionsMZI, CEI, NEI, NWI & SPI
CFS, CEI
GFSbc, CEI
CFS, MZI
GFSbc, MZI
CFS, NEI
GFSbc, NEI
CFS, NWI
GFSbc, NWI
CFS, SPI
GFSbc, SPI
16 May IC 21 May IC
MISO F/C verification
(OBS is for 25 days only)(OBS is for 25 days only)
26 May IC 31 May IC
MISO F/C verification
(OBS is for 15 days only)(OBS is for 20 days only)
Useful Information from the Forecast
Onset forecast including the large scale circulation features during the onset phase has been predicted with success.
The increased rainfall activity with the arrival of a convective phase of MISO over Monsoon Zone and other homogeneous regions has been outlined in a qualitative way 2-3 pentad in advance for the mid June spells.
The deterministic as well as probabilistic forecast of rainfall over different homogeneous regions fared well up to 3-4 pentad from the initial conditions used so far.
MISO monitoring and forecast
The MISO monitoring and forecast has been made available online in real-time for the first time using the Extended EOF method.
In many instances the verification of MISO amplitude found to be qualitatively successful in predicting the phase of MISO over different homogeneous regions of India.
Achievements of the Extended Range Forecasting System
A rigorous verification scheme of CFSv2 forecast has been established.
Indigenous method for generating Ensemble forecast has been designed.
Operational requirements are given priority in generating the forecast and data dissemination.