forecasting pm 2.5
DESCRIPTION
3-Dimensional Validation of Satellite AOD Products and the Numerical Aerosol Forecast Models that Use Them. Raymond Hoff, J. Engel-Cox, R. Rogers, N. Jordan, K. McCann, K. Mubenga Physics, MEES and JCET UMBC S. Palm, J. Spinhirne GSFC. Forecasting PM 2.5. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
3-Dimensional Validation of Satellite AOD Products and
the Numerical Aerosol Forecast Models that Use Them
Raymond Hoff, J. Engel-Cox, R. Rogers, N. Jordan, K. McCann, K. Mubenga Physics, MEES and JCET UMBC
S. Palm, J. Spinhirne
GSFC
Forecasting PM2.5
• NOAA-EPA MOU: 2013 PM Forecasts available to the public
• 2006 PM forecasting goes into beta testing mode
• How do you calibrate/validate these forecasts?
Surface Data - Real Time: AIRNoW
Courtesy Jim Szykman, EPA
CAMMSCAMMSTEOMNephelometerBeta Attenuation
Been there, done that…..ozone says this just doesn't work
The problem with 4D-VAR assimilation
• "Everybody says they should do something about getting data for 4D-VAR, but no one wants to do anything about it"
• Two examples follow where it is obvious that 3D and 4D solutions are needed:– Alaskan Fires of 2004– California Fire of 2003
A good IDEA
Courtesy: CIMSS, UW
Linking optical properties and mass concentration
Engel-Cox et al. 2004
Baltimore, MD Summer 2004
MO
DIS
Aer
osol
Opt
ical
Dep
th
PM
2.5
(g/
m3 )
July 9High altitude
smoke
July 21Mixed down
smoke
Courtesy EPA/UWisconsin
Old Town TEOM
MODIS AOD
Smoke mixing in Maryland
20-22 July 2004
Old Town (Baltimore) 19-22 July 2004Mixed down Smoke
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
07/19/04 07/20/04 07/21/04 07/22/04 07/23/04
PM
2.5
(u
g/m
3)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Op
tica
l De
pth
Hourly PM2.5Daily Average PM2.5MODIS AODLidar OD Total ColumnLidar OD Below Boundary Layer
U.S. Air Quality (The Smog Blog), http://alg.umbc.edu/usaq
Over 1,000,000 hits over 19 months~ 10,000 visits per month~800 unique visitors per week including
EPA, NASA, NOAA, & States
Daily posts
NASA satellite images, EPA data, etc.
Index & Links
http://alg.umbc.edu/REALM
Data for: September 1, 2004
Click on a REALM Participant for their LIDAR data.
REALM: Wisconsin lidar for July 2004
Eloranta, U. Wisc
July 17 July 18 July 19
MODIS
19 July 2004 21 July 2004
Example 2: GLAS and the California Fires of October 2003
Smoke
13:3502:00Low cloud
Midcloud
MODISAQUA19:43 UTCOctober 30
Smoke
10-5
10-6
5 10-6
October 3112:08
23:01
MODIS 17:05 UTC
This is tough…in 2D or 3D or 4D
• Where was the smoke 6 hours previously?
• We built a tool (CALIPSO-MORPH or C-MORPH)
Backward movie
Forward Movie
The easy validation problems are over
• Now it gets tough….
• Cal/Val has to be 3D+ to be able to integrate multiple profiling sensors
• Cal/Val is going to have to involve a 4D analysis tool
• UMBC/NOAA/NASA/EPA/UW/CDC are collaborating on "3D-AQS", an attempt to integrate multisensor data into the EPA decision support system, AQS
Backup
7/16 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/20 7/22
July 16-22, 2004: Evidence of Effects of Long Range Transport Originating Outside the Modeled Domain Evolution of Model and Observed Aerosol Optical Depth
MODIS
Model
Transport from outside the domain influences observed PM concentrations whichare grossly under-predicted during this period
• Model picks up spatial signatures ahead of the front • Under predictions behind the front (due to LBCs)
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7