forecasting tricks for vail, co (march 12, 2013)

Forecasting tricks for the Vail Valley

Meteorologist Joel Gratz

Photo: Connor Walberg, ActionPhotoSchool.com

Worst Year Best Year

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Ouray

Aspen

Ouray

Pueblo

Durango

Alamosa

Boulder

Gunnison

Fort Collins

Grand Junction

Colorado Springs

Glenwood Springs

Steamboat Springs

Arkansas

South Platte

Gunnison

Upper Colorado Headwaters

Yampa and White

Upper Rio Grande

San Miguel, Dolores,

Animas and San Juan

Laramie and North Platte

75

69

78

76

85

79

81

78

Denver

"#$76

"#$25

ColoradoSNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Normal

"#$70

0 20 40 60 80 10010Miles

Provisional Data Subject to Revision

Current Snow WaterEquivalent (SWE)Basin-wide Percentof 1981-2010 Median

unavailable *

<50%

50 - 69%

70 - 89%

90 - 109%

110 - 129%

130 - 149%

>=150%

Mar 11, 2013

* Data unavailable at time of posting or measurement is not representative at this time of year

Prepared by the USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center Portland, Oregon http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/gis/Based on data from http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reports/Science contact: [email protected] 503 414 3047

The snow water equivalent percent of normal represents the currentsnow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on the first reading of the day (typically 00:00).

Average

Lastyear

Thisyear

VailJanuary 31, 2013

My calling since age 5...

Joel Gratz, Aspen Highlands, CO, 2010. Photo: Ted MahonJoel Gratz, Blue Mountain, PA, 1986. Photo: Steve Gratz

CopperOctober 31, 2012

CMH GalenaBritish Columbia

December 29, 2012

THANK YOU!!!!!

December 2007 28 person email list

2008-2009 500 person email list

2009-2010 245,000 pageviews

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THANK YOU!!!!!

How this presentation will help you:

1) Learn snow forecasting tricks for the Vail Valley


1) Learn snow forecasting tricks for the Vail Valley


2) Understand how tointerpret the current

weather situation

Joel Gratz | Meadow Mountain, CO | 2009-03-11Joel Gratz | Meadow Mountain, CO | 2009-03-11

Is Colorado the tougheststate to forecast?

La Nina storm tracks

Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder

El Nino storm tracks


Normal Water Temperatures

La Nada storm tracks


Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high


1


1 2


1 2 3


“Weather happens” when moist air gets high.





Where’s the moisture?


Lots of moisture(ocean source)



OK moisture(ocean + plants)



Less moisture(land source)

OK moisture(ocean + plants)


1


1 2


1 2 3

Five ways to get high


C is for convection.



L is for low pressure.




O is for orographic.





U is for undercut.





U is for undercut.

D is for dynamic.

Pleaaasssseeeee Remember

orographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographics

Mountains = Precipitation

Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado



Park Range



Park Range

Flattops



Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa



Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns



Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

N&SSan Juans



Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans



Sangre deChristo

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans



Sangre deChristo

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans

Sawatch



Sangre deChristo

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans

Sawatch

Ten Mile &Mosquito



Sangre deChristo

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans

Sawatch

Gore

Ten Mile &Mosquito



Indian Peaks / RMNP

Sangre deChristo

Park Range

Flattops

GrandMesa

ElkMtns

EastSan Juans

N&SSan Juans

Sawatch

Gore

Ten Mile &Mosquito

The best (upslope) wind direction

Wolf Creek

Silverton

Telluride

Powderhorn

Crested Butte

Aspen

VailSummit Co.

Steamboat RMNP

Vail: Northwest winds


Vail


BeaverCreek

Vail


BeaverCreek

Vail

Gore Range


BeaverCreek

Vail

Gore Range

VailPass

Beaver Creek: West winds

Vail

Gore Range

VailPass

BeaverCreek

Snow to liquid ratio


10” snow = 1” liquid --> heavy snow



15” snow = 1” liquid --> average



15” snow = 1” liquid --> average

20” snow = 1” liquid --> blower pow

VailJanuary 31, 2013

Moi

stur

e in

the

air

Temperature >> colder

10F 0F

http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/primer/primer.htm




• Lots of moisture



• Mountain top temperatures between about 0-10F



• Mountain top temperatures between about 0-10F

• Not too much wind

Jamming the Radar

Beam is blocked by the first mountain and can’t “see” to the second mountain.

0.5 deg

Overshooting the snow

If the radar is too far away, the beam can overshoot the snow

12,000 ft

15,000 ft

20,000 ftVail


http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

Denver Airport

PuebloGrandMesa

http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/funorb/images/0/06/Radar_Dish.PNG




Steamboat





RMNP

Steamboat





RMNP

Steamboat

Summit Co.





RMNP

Steamboat

Vail

Summit Co.





RMNP

Steamboat

Aspen

Vail

Summit Co.





RMNP

Steamboat

Aspen

Vail

Summit Co.

Crested Butte





RMNP

Steamboat

Telluride

Aspen

Vail

Summit Co.

Crested Butte





RMNP

Steamboat

Telluride

Wolf Creek

Aspen

Vail

Summit Co.

Crested Butte



Surface Observations

Webcams!

March 11, 2013 8pm

Webcams!

March 11, 2013 9pm

Webcams!

March 11, 2013 10pm

What’s the forecast?

To the internet!

Favorite Sites

Twisterdata.com

Meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html

Avalanche.state.co.us/index.php

Joel Gratz

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

forecasting tricks for vail, co (march 12, 2013)

Sports

blower pow

govnexradinv

http

gt

swe

noaa

march 11

ncdc