forest regeneration trends: dinosaurs, political ... · m. king hubbert. 1971. energy and power, a...

Forest Regeneration Trends in Canada:

The Role of Dinosaurs, Political Correctness, and

Emerging PressuresRobert G. Wagner

University of Maine

58th Forest Industry Lecture University of AlbertaEdmonton, Alberta

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Wangari Maathai - 2004 Nobel Peace Prize for “for her contribution to sustainable development, democracy and peace.” Founder of Kenya’s Green Belt Movement that mobilized poor women to plant 30 million trees over thirty years.

How are we doing with forest regeneration in Canada and the US?

November 7, 2007 4

Tree Planting and Direct Seeding in Canada (1975 – 2004)

Source: National Forestry Database Program, Canadian Council of Forest Ministers and Canadian Forest Service

November 7, 2007 5

U.S. Tree Planting by Landowner Type (1928-1996)

0100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,500

1928

1931

1935

1938

1945

1948

1951

1954

1957

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

Year

Hec

tare

s (x

1000

)

Tribal

State & Local Government

Other Federal

Nonindustrial Private

National Forest

Forest Industry

ConservationReserveProgram

(CRP)

SoilBank

Program

Source: U.S. Forest Planting Report (USDA, FS, Washington, DC), and recent data in Tree Planters' Notes, Volume 49, No. 2.

November 7, 2007 6

Site Preparation Trends in Canada (1975 – 2004)


November 7, 2007 7

Stand Tending Trends in Canada (1975 – 2004)


Did harvest patterns change?

November 7, 2007 9

Harvesting Trends in Canada (1975 – 2004)

85% clearcutting


November 7, 2007 10

U.S. Tree Planting and Wood Harvest (1976 – 2001)

Source: USDA Forest Service, FIA State Reports dated 1980-1992. USDA Forest Service, Forest Statistics of the United States, 1992.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Year

Acr

es (x

1000

)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Har

vest

vol

ume

(x10

00 ft

3 )

Clearcuttting (3.7 MM acres)

38%

Partial cutting (6.1 MM acres)

62%

Mean annual harvest1980s-90s

November 7, 2007 11

Proportion of Harvest Area on National Forest Lands by Harvest Method (1984 – 2003)

Source: USDA Forest Service.

Clearcut

Shelterwood Cuts

Partial cuts

05

1015202530354045505560657075

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Perc

ent

November 7, 2007 12

Harvest area on U.S. National Forest System lands by Harvest Method (1984 – 2003)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Thou

sand

acr

es

ClearcutShelterwood CutsPartial cutsTotal

U.S. National Forest has 46% of U.S. softwood supply

Source: USDA Forest Service.

November 7, 2007 13

U.S. Softwood Imports From Canada (1970 - 2050)

Source: Haynes, R.W. 2003. An Analysis of the Timber Situation in the United States: 1952 to 2050. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-560.

Regeneration activity as a proportion of clearcut

harvesting?

November 7, 2007 15

Ratio of Canadian Planting and Seeding Area to Clearcut Harvest Area (1975-2005)

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Year

Plan

ting

+ se

edin

g ar

ea :

Har

vest

are

a Planting + Seeding

-25%


Less than half of Canadian clearcuts are being artificially regenerated

November 7, 2007 16

Ratio of U.S. Planted Area to Clearcut Harvest Area (1976-1996)

Assumption: based on mean clearcut harvest area 1980-92; Annual harvest area over period was 9.8 million acres, 38% of harvest area was clearcutting.

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996Year

Plan

ting

area

: C

lear

cut a

rea

-29%

Source: Forest Resources of the United States, 2002. Gen. Tech Rep. NC-241. St. Paul MN: U.S. Dept. of Agric.; Forest Service; 2004 141p.; U.S. Forest Planting Report (USDA, FS, Washington, DC), and recent data in Tree Planters' Notes, Volume 49, No. 2.

November 7, 2007 17

Ratio of Canadian Site Preparation and Tending Area to Clearcut Harvest Area (1975-2005)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Year

SIP

or T

endi

ng a

rea

: Cle

arcu

t are

a

Site PreparationTending


Less than 1/3 of Canadian clearcuts are being site prepared and tended

November 7, 2007 18

Survey of 6-8 year old Nova Scotia plantations

established without herbicides

Surveyed 33% of the plantation area established during 1998-2000

Why did artificial regeneration, site preparation, and

tending fall from favor?

November 7, 2007 20

Potential Reasons• Artificial regeneration not as successful as

hoped

• Natural regeneration found to be adequate and for less cost

• Changes in harvesting practice reduced need for artificial regeneration

• Reduced commitment by government and private landowners to pay for regeneration

• Reduced advocacy by foresters for regeneration investments

What happened to forest managers and governments ~1990?

November 7, 2007 22

1990 Forestry Paradigm Shift

• Sustainable development

• Biodiversity

• Ecosystem management

• Old growth

• Threatened and endangered species

• Landscape ecology

• Emulating natural disturbance

November 7, 2007 23

1990 Forestry Paradigm Shift

• Sustainability became forest policy across Canada

• Forestry schools begin changing their names

• USFS starts rapid decline in forest harvesting

• Natural disturbance is better than forest management

November 7, 2007 24

Stigmatized Reforestation Technology

• Herbicides

• Insecticides

• Genetic improvement

• Site preparation

• Fertilizers

• Plantations

PoliticallyIncorrect

November 7, 2007 25

From Eugene, Oregon newspaper in the late 1970s

Technological Stigmatization of

Herbicides

Significant Change in Reforestation Behavior ~1990

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996Year

Plan

ting

area

: C

lear

cut a

rea

-29%

Canada

U.S.

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Year

Plan

ting

+ se

edin

g ar

ea :

Har

vest

are


-25%

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Year

Plan

ting

+ se

edin

g ar

ea :

Har

vest

are


-25%

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Year

SIP

or T

endi

ng a

rea

: Cle

arcu

t are

a


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Year

SIP

or T

endi

ng a

rea

: Cle

arcu

t are

a


What factors are likely to influence

regeneration trends in the coming years?

November 7, 2007 28

Emergent pressures likely to force forest managers to more critically

evaluate current regeneration trends

• End of cheap oil

• Wood supply demand & shortages

• Global markets

• Climate change & carbon markets

• Invasive plants

• High-yield conservation

November 7, 2007 30

M. King Hubbert. 1971. Energy and Power, A Scientific American Book, pg. 39

Hubbert Peak World Oil Production

Oil production has already peaked in non-OPEC and non-former Soviet Union countries

Most models project a peak within 10 years

November 7, 2007 31

World Petroleum Consumption (1960 – 2025)

Source: R.L. Hirsch, R. Bezdek, and R. Wendling. 2005. Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management.

November 7, 2007 32

November 7, 2007 33

25 x ’25 Program

Source: http://www.25x25.org

http://www.25x25.org/index.php

November 7, 2007 34

Electric Power & Renewable Energy Certificates

Renewable Energy Certificate

1 REC

Power From a Renewable

Energy Source

1 MWH

Electricity

1 MWH

$$$$$$$$

November 7, 2007 35

Mill Conversion to Add Forest Bioproducts

November 7, 2007 36

National Forest Biomass Potential

Source: Perlack, R..D., et al. 2005. Biomass as feedstock for A bioenergy and bioproducts industry: The technical feasibility of A billion-ton annual supply. Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

November 7, 2007 37

November 7, 2007 38

Woody Biomass Feedstocks

Low value wood from forests can be harvested sustainably

Large quantities of wood residues from primary and secondary wood product manufacturers are available

Willow biomass crops can be grown on under utilized open land

Biomass harvesting of small and poor quality trees

Biomass harvesting of small and poor quality trees

Wood Supply Demand and

Shortages

November 7, 2007 41

China’s Gross Domestic Product(Exchange Rate Valuation)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Bill

ion

s of

19

87

U.S

. Dol

lars

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, 2002.

November 7, 2007 42

China’s Wood Importation Trends

Source: www.FAO.org

Wood Products Import to China (1997-2006)

Wood Products Import to China Projections

November 7, 2007 43

Human population & Wood Consumption

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Year

Hum

an p

opul

atio

n (b

illio

ns)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Woo

d co

nsum

ptio

n (b

illio

n m

3 )

Human population

Wood consumptionProjected

Need to increase global harvest by 35 million m3 each year to meet projected

population growth at current level of per capita global consumption

November 7, 2007 44

Declining Forestland and Increasing Population

Source: David South, Auburn University, derived from 1997 FAO data. Current rate of decline is about 0.3%/year. Historical estimates of forest land from Richards (1990).

1990 to 2000• 94 million ha of forestland lost

worldwide • Area lost > Venezuela• 0.22% loss per year

(FAO 2001)

November 7, 2007 45

Declining Forestland, Increasing Population, and Wood Demand

*assuming a world population of 10 billion and per capita annual wood consumption of 0.6 m3.

Source: Sutton, W.R.J. 1999. Does the world need plantations? Paper presented at intersessional expert meeting on the role of planted forests, April 6-9, 1999, Santiago, Chile.

November 7, 2007 46

Increases in wood yield per hectare required with increasing population and shrinking forestland

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0

2000 2050 - current forestland(3.87 billion ha)

2050 - projectedforestland (3 billion ha)

Woo

d yi

eld

requ

ired

(m3 /h

a/yr

)

Global consumption levelN. American consumption level

Assumes world population of 9 billion in 2050, global consumption = 0.58 m3/yr, N. American consumption rate = 3X global average, Rate of forestland decline = 0.30%/yr.

Will need to increase yields

by 50% to meet global

population needs with

current forestland

Will need 2X yields to meet

global population at current rate of

forestland decline

Will need to increase yields 5X if global

population consumes like N. Americans

November 7, 2007 47

Increases in Southern Pine Yields Over Time

02468

101214161820

Naural stands(1950s)

Firstplantations

(1970s)

Currentplantations

(1990s)

Futureplantations

(2010s)

Woo

d gr

owth

(ton

s/A

/yr)

0.9 cords/A/yr5.2 m3/ha/yr




Stocking controlRelease

NurseriesSite prep.Herb controlfertilizationPCT

Clonal forestryGenetic engineeringNutrition mgmt.Optimum silv.

Source: Phil Dougherty, Westvaco. 1999.

November 7, 2007 48

JD Irving Lands and Production Facilities

November 7, 2007 49

JD Irving Black Brook District

November 7, 2007 50

Stand Yield Impact of Intensive Silviculture in the Northern Forest

Source: Blake Brunsdon, JD Irving, NESAF meeting, Oct 2007

November 7, 2007 51

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2002

2007

2012

2017

2022

2027

2032

2037

2042

2047

2052

2057

2062

2067

2072

2077

Year

Ann

ual h

arve

st le

vel (

m3 x

100

0) Current Silv with CthinCurrent Silv - No CThinNo Future SilvNo Silv Ever

Effect of various silvicultural scenarios on spruce-sir annual harvest levels on J.D. Irving’s 190,000 ha Black Brook District in New Brunswick (2002-2077)

Source: Blake Brunsdon, J.D. Irving

Harvest Levels on J.D. Irving’s Black Brook District

2.5 X4.7 X

November 7, 2007 52

How do JDI yields compare?


November 7, 2007 53

JDI Black Brook District Landscape:Past, Present, and Future

Etheridge, D.A., D.A. MacLean, R.G. Wagner, and J.S. Wilson. 2006. Effects of intensive forest management on stand and landscape characteristics in northern New Brunswick, Canada (1945–2027). Landscape Ecology 21: 509–524.

Etheridge, D.A., D.A. MacLean, R.G. Wagner, and J.S. Wilson. 2005. Changes in landscape composition and stand structure from 1945–2002 on an industrial forest in New Brunswick, Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35: 1965–1977.

November 7, 2007 54

How did the Black Brook change over 60 yrs?

• More Hardwood – 1945 10% to 2002 25%

total MW decreased from 28 to 18%

• More young stands

shifted from a mature fir dominated forest to a younger spruce dominated one

much less (~90%) old SW and old MW stands

• Smaller stands

1945 54% area in patches >1000 ha, vs. 2002 58% in patches < 100 ha

no. patches: 1,000 in 1945, 5,200 in 2002

• Less balsam fir

• Denser stands

+100-300 stems/ha, +4-7 m2/ha in 2002

more large trees (40-50 >30 and 4-17 >45 cm dbh)

Global Wood Market

November 7, 2007 56

South AfricaEucalyptus plantations

Eucalyptus dunniiAge: 4.5 yearsLocation: PietermaritzburgDensity: 1,600 tph = 646 tpaSite Quality: MediumVolume: At 3.5 yrs, 123 m3/ha = 1,758 ft3/AProductivity: 35 m3/ha/yr = 502 ft3/A/yr

November 7, 2007 57

South African Tree Planters

Wages: 50 Rands per day = $7.35 CDN= $7.40 US

Lower taxesLower energy costsLower regulatory risk

Lower taxesLower energy costsLower regulatory risk

November 7, 2007 58

Global Forest

November 7, 2007 59

Global Market

November 7, 2007 60

Potential Forest Productivity

November 7, 2007 61

Global Wood Markets, Forest, & Production Capability

= Highest productivity forest area

= Forest area

??

Future of lower productivity northern forests closest to best markets??

?

Russian softwood

supply

November 7, 2007 62

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

Oct-02

Jan-0

3Apr-

03Ju

l-03

Oct-03

Jan-0

4Apr-

04Ju

l-04

Oct-04

Jan-0

5Apr-

05Ju

l-05

Oct-05

Jan-0

6Apr-

06Ju

l-06

Oct-06

Jan-0

7Apr-

07Ju

l-07

Oct-07

Record High Canadian Dollar

US:CDN Currency Exchange

Oct 2002: $0.63 USD

Oct 2006: $0.885 USD

OCT 2007: $1.01 USD

NOTE: For every 1 centthe Canadian dollar increasesMaritime lumber producers lose $6 million


Climate Change and Carbon Sequestration

November 7, 2007 64

Scientists Confirm Alarming Trend!!

Forests for Carbon Credits?

http://www.cdmwatch.org/files/forestfraud.pdf

November 7, 2007 66

Tri-Issue Alignment

National Security (Middle East)

Economy (cost of petroleum)

Environmental (climate change)

Invasive Exotic Plants

• Wells National Estuarine Research Reserve in coastal Maine• Regeneration exclusion by Japanese barberry (Berberis thunbergii)• Overstory breaking up and without intervention will progress toward

an invasive exotic brushfield

High-Yield Conservation of

Biodiversity

High-Yield Conservation Declaration

“…. declare that additional high-yield practices, based on advances in biology, ecology, chemistry, and technology, are critically needed in agriculture and forestry not only to achieve the goal of improving the human condition for all peoples but also the simultaneous preservation of the natural environment and its biodiversity through the conservation of wild areas and natural habitat.”

Founders of High-Yield Conservation Declaration

Norman Borlaug, PhDNobel Peace Prize winner,Father of the Green Revolution

Patrick Moore, PhD Co-founder of Greenpeace,Forestry advocate

Oscar Arias, PhDNobel Peace Prize winner,Former President of Costa Rica

James LovelockIndependent Scientist, author of "The Gaia Hypothesis"

The Honorable George McGovern Former US Senator,UN "Ambassador to the Hungry"

Rudy Boschwitz Former US Senator,Advisory Chair, Center for Global Food Issues

Eugène LapointePresident of the World Conservation Trust,Former Secretary-General of CITES

Per Pinstrup-Andersen, PhD2001 World Food Prize winner,Director of the International Food Policy Research Institute

November 7, 2007 72

Land saved globally from high-yield agriculture

Source: Borlaug, N.E. 2000. The green revolution revisited and the road ahead. Special 30th Anniversary Lecture, The Norwegian Nobel Institute, Oslo, Norway. September 8, 2000. (www.nobel.se).

3-fold more farmland

would have been needed

by 1999

1.2 billion ha more land

available for wildlife habitat and biodiversity

conservation

November 7, 2007 73

U.S. land saved in 2000 due to gains in agriculture yields since 1920

If corn, wheat, and soybean yields were held at 1920 levels, 3.7-fold more land (338 million ha) would have been needed in 2000

10 largest western states

1920 = U.S. farmed 347 million acres (140 million ha)2000 = U.S. farmed 308 million acres (124 million ha)39 million fewer acres (15.7 million ha) farmed

November 7, 2007 74

www.highyieldconservation.org

Local Variation

November 7, 2007 76

BC & AB Mountain Pine Beetle Kill

November 7, 2007 77

Effect of emergent pressures on regeneration silviculture

• End of cheap oil

• Wood supply demand & shortage

• Global markets

• Climate change & carbon markets

• Invasive plants

• High-yield conservation

?

?

?

?

November 7, 2007 78

Conclusions• Successful regeneration is the first principle

of sustainable forestry

• Forestry profession needs to seriously examine trends, implications, and obligations of reforestation in light of global challenges

• Reevaluate/Reject the 1990 “Chinese cultural revolution” in forestry

• Bring back the dinosaurs! They know stuff.

• Counseling for those fearful of being politically incorrectPolitically

Incorrect

forest regeneration trends: dinosaurs, political ... · m. king hubbert. 1971. energy and power, a...

Documents