Forward Look

20 Year HorizonBy Prof Jeff Waage

Image: Nguyen Cuong

Multi-sectoral interventions in nutrition can be powerful2

Estimated benefit-cost ratio per child of WHA undernutrition target to reduce stunting in children under 5

*Conservatively assumes that individuals work only until the age of 36 or that the benefits of improved nutrition stop at age 36; discount rate of 5%

Ghana has been at the forefront of the fastest growing region for agricultural production10

Agricultural production 1980 – 2010, gross production value, average annual growth (%) and world rank

Ghana was also the top performer from 1990 to 2011, at both the regional and continental level, in reducing its Global Hunger Index (GHI) score by 59%

Ghana’s success resulted from a combination of multi-sectoral investments in agriculture, rural development, education and health

The government also boosted the food value chain with infrastructure such as roads and storage facilities

Despite improvements in the food value chain post-harvest losses are high11

Loss of staple crops during post-harvest handling (%), 2012

Country Cassava Maize Rice Sorghum/Millet

Grain legumes

Yams Groundnut Sweet potato

Ghana 18.

9 – 18 11-27 5-15 8-28 10-60 6 N

Nigeria 28 20 n/a n/a n/a 37 n/a n/a

Burkina Faso n/a n/a 6-24 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Mali n/a 20-30 10-15 2-15 n/a n/a 20-30 n/a

Key factors include:

•Attack on grains by insects, rodents and birds•Spillage/shattering of grains (due to wind and during milling)•Fungi and mycotoxin contamination of grains and roots and tubers causing rotting or spoilage due to contamination•Sprouting of grains and roots and tubers•Rotting of roots and tubers and grains due to high temperatures and poor ventilation•Discolouration of grains and roots •Mechanical farming implements damage to roots and tubers leading to spoilage•Weight loss for both grains and tuber crops mainly due to reduction of moisture content during drying and storage

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Ghana’s projected 21st century population is highly sensitive to female education12

Projected Ghanaian population (m), 1990-2050

In Ghana women without formal education have on average 5.7 children, women with lower secondary 3.2, and women with post secondary education only 1.5‑ 13

There is substantial progress in female educational enrolment to build on14

Net enrolment rate for females in Ghana, 2000-2014

Recent rapid urbanisation has been judged successful but it is expected to accelerateRatio of Urban to Rural Population, 1990-205015

Recent urbanization has improved livelihoods, reduced poverty, leading to greater social inclusion and lower spatial inequality16

But future urbanisation will require new sources of productivity to create more efficient urban economies and healthy, inclusive cities17

Well-designed urbanisation could enable Ghana to leapfrog obesity crises in developed countriesPrevalence of overweight and obesity and 95% CIs in West African children aged 0–5 (%), 1990–2020 18

Otherwise a ‘double burden of malnutrition’ with undernutrition, obesity and diet-related chronic diseases could stifle development

The risk of a ‘double burden of malnutrition’ requires careful monitoring and management National surveys of Ghanaian females who are underweight or obese (%)19

*1987-1989 Survey based on ages 20-65, others based on ages 15-49

Ghana’s agriculture is mostly rainfed and highly vulnerable to the effects of climatic change20

Change in the monthly mean maximum daily temperature for the warmest month, 2000–2050, A1B scenario (ºC)

ECHAM 5 GCM MIROC 3.2 medium-resolution GCM

CNRM-CM3 GCM CSIRO Mark 3 GCM

< -1-1 to -0.5-0.5 to 00 to 0.50.5 to 11 to 1.51.5 to 22 to 2.52.5 to 33 to 3.5> 3.5

• Suite of climate models predict mostly negative consequences for Ghanaian agriculture

• Potentially higher temperatures along with decreased precipitation could have serious implications for the production of important crops like maize, rice, and groundnuts

• Food security policies will be necessary to effectively address anticipated climate change effects

• But sensitivity analysis also suggests economic growth will be crucial to mitigate impact on malnourishment of children

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