framework for model development general model design highway network/traffic analysis zones (tazs)...

Framework for Model Framework for Model DevelopmentDevelopmentFramework for Model Framework for Model DevelopmentDevelopmentGeneral Model DesignGeneral Model DesignGeneral Model DesignGeneral Model Design

Highway Network/Traffic Analysis Highway Network/Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs)Zones (TAZs)Highway Network/Traffic Analysis Highway Network/Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs)Zones (TAZs)

Development of Synthetic Trip Development of Synthetic Trip TablesTablesDevelopment of Synthetic Trip Development of Synthetic Trip TablesTablesDevelopment of Freight Model Development of Freight Model ComponentsComponentsDevelopment of Freight Model Development of Freight Model ComponentsComponents

Validation ProceduresValidation ProceduresValidation ProceduresValidation Procedures

Model ApplicationModel ApplicationModel ApplicationModel Application

More than 8,029 bridges in the state are owned and maintained by TDOT. They are inspected for safety every two years.

TDOT maintains 1,073 miles of interstates and 13,077 miles of state roads.

Due to an active construction program, Tennessee’s roads are consistently ranked in the top five in the nation.

There are 6 commercial service airports and an additional 78 general aviation airports in Tennessee. TDOT has involvement with the 6 commercial airports. The Memphis International Airport is home for FedEx and is the largest air cargo operation in the world.

TDOT provides financial assistance for 24 public transit systems including large urban, small urban, rural and trolley. TDOT assistance extends to all 95 Counties.

Six Class I railroads operate in Tennessee. Nineteen Shortline railroads operate with total trackage of approximately 746 miles.

The Mississippi River borders Tennessee, providing 1000 miles of navigable waterway from St. Louis to New Orleans and serves as a major corridor for barge commodities. The Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers add another 1200 miles of critical waterway.

Why Are We Doing a Plan?Why Are We Doing a Plan?• Create a process to evaluate, prioritize

and deliver transportation projects in a financially responsible manner

• Cultivate an understanding of the state’s role in transportation among all people

• Involve all that are interested in decisions made about transportation

• Create a process to evaluate, prioritize and deliver transportation projects in a financially responsible manner

• Cultivate an understanding of the state’s role in transportation among all people

• Involve all that are interested in decisions made about transportation

Critical TrendsCritical TrendsPopulation ChangesPopulation Changes

6.36

5.215.69

4.88

5.76

1.591.44

1.22

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Year

Proj

ecte

d Po

pula

tion

(M

illio

ns)

Source: Tennessee Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations and U.S. Census BureauApproximately

20% over Age 65

6.4

3

7.1

0

7.8

5

Projected Population Change in Tennessee

Projected Population Change in Tennessee


Economic IssuesEconomic Issues

Transportation and the Economy


Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System Database

Employment Trends in Tennessee1970 to 2000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1970 1980 1990 2000Year

Num

ber

of Jo

bs

Farm Retail Service Manufacturing



Tennessee Job Growth - 2004 to 2013

Source: 2004 Economic Report to the Governor, Center for Business and Economic Research

• 2005 – 2013 Forecasted Compound Growth of 2% +

• Transportation MUST keep up, or economy will suffer



Traffic CongestionTraffic Congestion


Source: 2002 TRIMS Data




Truck FlowsTruck Flows

Total Combined Truck Flows (1998)

Total Combined Truck Flows (1998)

Source: U.S. DOT / FHWA

• 30% of traffic on rural interstates is trucks.

• 56% of trucks on the interstate is pass through.





Environmental ConcernsEnvironmental Concerns


Source: Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation






Available State FundsAvailable State Funds


$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

1986-8

7

1987-8

8

1988-8

9

1989-9

0

1990-9

1

1991-9

2

1992-9

3

1993-9

4

1994-9

5

1995-9

6

1996-9

7

1997-9

8

1998-9

9

1999-0

0

2000-0

1

2001-0

2

2002-0

3

2003-0

4

(In M

illio

ns)

100% State Funding for the Road Program

FY 1986-87 through FY 2003-04Source: TDOT

• Less State Funding• Results in Less Federal

Matching Funds

Critical TrendsCritical Trends

Population ChangesPopulation Changes






The Plan IncludesThe Plan Includes

RailRailTransitTransitPorts & WaterwaysPorts & WaterwaysAviationAviationPedestrians & BicyclesPedestrians & BicyclesHighways and Highways and

InterstatesInterstates

RailRailTransitTransitPorts & WaterwaysPorts & WaterwaysAviationAviationPedestrians & BicyclesPedestrians & BicyclesHighways and Highways and

InterstatesInterstates

• Multimodal Approach:• Multimodal Approach:

25 Year Vision10 Year Program

Project Selection Criteria

25 Year Vision10 Year Program

Project Selection Criteria

Financial Plan,Strategic Investment,

and Policies

Financial Plan,Strategic Investment,

and Policies

PerformanceMeasures & Indicators

PerformanceMeasures & Indicators

The Planning ProcessThe Planning Process

Challenges &Opportunities

Challenges &Opportunities

Goals &Objectives

Goals &Objectives

Public InvolvementPublic Involvement

Public InvolvementPublic InvolvementStatewide Steering Committee

Regional Working Groups

Public Meetings

Statewide Steering Committee

Regional Working Groups

Public Meetings

Regional Workgroup Areas

Public InvolvementPublic Involvement

Public InvolvementPublic InvolvementPolicy Summits and Legislative

Briefings

State Seminars

Surrounding States Seminars

Policy Summits and Legislative Briefings

State Seminars

Surrounding States Seminars

Public Involvement - OutreachPublic Involvement - OutreachSpeakers BureauTraveling ExhibitWeb sitePrinted ProductsMedia Kits/ReleasesDatabase/Notices

Speakers BureauTraveling ExhibitWeb sitePrinted ProductsMedia Kits/ReleasesDatabase/Notices

Gather InputSort and

Distribute Input

Draft Draft Milestone Milestone ReportsReports

Final Final Milestone Milestone ReportsReports

Committees and Working Groups

Seminars and Policy Summits

Community Input

• Public Meetings• Hotline/Web• Comment Forms• Presentations• Traveling Exhibit• Other Outreach



Community Input


Gather Input

Aviation

Bike/Ped

Ports & Waterways

Public Transportation

Rail

Roadways

Policy• Funding• Environment

Aviation

Bike/Ped

Ports & Waterways

Public Transportation

Rail

Roadways

Policy• Funding• Environment



Community Input




Community Input


Public Involvement - OutreachPublic Involvement - Outreach

What Happens to Comments?

What Happens to Comments?

Identify Challenges and OpportunitiesIdentify Challenges and Opportunities

• Population and Employment Forecasts

• Travel Demand Forecasts• Modal Needs and Constraints• Financial Trends• Freight• Community Visions

• Population and Employment Forecasts

• Travel Demand Forecasts• Modal Needs and Constraints• Financial Trends• Freight• Community Visions

Establish Goals and ObjectivesEstablish Goals and Objectives

• Taking Care of Basics• Moving a Growing, Diverse and

Dynamic Population• Supporting the State’s Economy• Improving Safety• Building Communities• Stewardship of the Environment

• Taking Care of Basics• Moving a Growing, Diverse and

Dynamic Population• Supporting the State’s Economy• Improving Safety• Building Communities• Stewardship of the Environment

Performance Based ApproachPerformance Based Approach• Performance Measures• Performance Measures

System Performance Mobility Safety Geographic Equity Cost Effectiveness Environmental

Impacts Community Support

System Performance Mobility Safety Geographic Equity Cost Effectiveness Environmental

Impacts Community Support

• Performance Indicators• Performance Indicators Quantity of Travel Quality of Travel Accessibility Utilization

Quantity of Travel Quality of Travel Accessibility Utilization

Plan SchedulePlan Schedule

May 2

004

Sta

tew

ide

Med

ia E

vent

July

2004

Bas

e N

etw

ork

Jun

e 2

004

Bas

e S

ynth

etic

Tri

p Ta

ble

Au

gu

st

2004

Fre

ight

Tri

p Ta

ble

Sep

tem

ber

20

04

Cha

lleng

es &

Opp

ortu

nitie

s an

d

G

oals

, Obj

ectiv

es &

Pol

icie

s

No

vem

ber

20

04 M

odal

Nee

ds a

nd

Per

form

ance

Mea

sure

s

Dec

emb

er

2004

Pre

limin

ary

Pro

ject

Sel

ectio

n C

rite

ria

Mar

ch

2005

Fina

ncia

l Pla

n &

Str

ateg

ic In

vest

men

ts

Jun

e 20

05L

on

g-R

ang

eT

ran

spo

rtat

ion

Pla

n

Jan

uary

2004

Pro

jec

t In

itia

ted

Model CharacteristicsModel Characteristics• Address Major Corridor Movements• Relatively Easy to Maintain and Update• Uses Existing Data Resources• Uses Existing Software for Application• Links to Existing GIS

Databases/Software• Sensitive to Shifts in

Socioeconomic/Land Use Patterns• Assess Impacts of Shifts in Travel Modes• Assess Freight Movements

• Address Major Corridor Movements• Relatively Easy to Maintain and Update• Uses Existing Data Resources• Uses Existing Software for Application• Links to Existing GIS

Databases/Software• Sensitive to Shifts in

Socioeconomic/Land Use Patterns• Assess Impacts of Shifts in Travel Modes• Assess Freight Movements

Potential MethodologiesPotential Methodologies• Traditional Four Step TDM Procedures

Trip GenerationTrip DistributionMode ChoiceTraffic Assignment

• Trip Table Expansion (FRATAR)Preparation of Base Trip Table(s)Development of Expansion Factors

• Traditional Four Step TDM ProceduresTrip GenerationTrip DistributionMode ChoiceTraffic Assignment

• Trip Table Expansion (FRATAR)Preparation of Base Trip Table(s)Development of Expansion Factors

Steps In Model DevelopmentSteps In Model Development

• Development of Highway Network & TAZsSelection of Detail for Highway NetworkDefinition of TAZsTAZ/Network Compatibility

• Synthetic Matrix Estimation (SME)Development of Seed MatricesMatrix Estimation

• Traffic Assignment

• Development of Highway Network & TAZsSelection of Detail for Highway NetworkDefinition of TAZsTAZ/Network Compatibility

• Synthetic Matrix Estimation (SME)Development of Seed MatricesMatrix Estimation

• Traffic Assignment

Network/TAZ CompatibilityNetwork/TAZ Compatibility

Network/TAZ DefinitionNetwork/TAZ Definition

• Incorporate All Roadways in TRIMS• 1,000 Miles of Interstate/Freeways• 5,000 Miles of Principal Arterials• 6,000 Miles of Other

•Subset of TRIMS Interstate and FreewaysPrincipal Arterials

• Incorporate All Roadways in TRIMS• 1,000 Miles of Interstate/Freeways• 5,000 Miles of Principal Arterials• 6,000 Miles of Other

•Subset of TRIMS Interstate and FreewaysPrincipal Arterials

TDOT TRIMSTDOT TRIMSRegion 1Region 1Region

2Region

2Region 3Region 3Region 4Region 4

Rural InterstateRural Principal ArterialRural Minor ArterialRural LocalUrban InterstateUrban Freeway/ExpresswayUrban Principal ArterialUrban Minor Arterial

LEGEND:LEGEND:

TDOT Region 1 - TRIMSTDOT Region 1 - TRIMS


LEGEND:LEGEND:Rural InterstateRural Principal ArterialRural Minor ArterialRural LocalUrban InterstateUrban Freeway/ExpresswayUrban Principal ArterialUrban Minor Arterial



LEGEND:LEGEND:






LEGEND:LEGEND:

TRIMS DatabaseTRIMS DatabaseNATIONAL FUNCTIONAL NFC TRIMS TRIMS

CLASSIFICATION CODE Miles VMTRURAL INTERSTATE 01 368.46 12,901,049RURAL OTHER PRINCIPAL ARTERIAL 02 1581.97 13,693,621RURAL MINOR ARTERIAL 06 2595.38 12,973,803RURAL MAJ OR COLLECTOR 07 3625.57 7,756,768RURAL MINOR COLLECTOR 08 8.03 19,522RURAL LOCAL 09 0 0URBAN INTERSTATE 11 613.27 44,535,171URBAN FREEWAY OR EXPRESSWAY 12 300.84 10,834,901URBAN OTHER PRINCIPAL ARTERIAL 14 2717.87 51,938,821URBAN MINOR ARTERIAL 16 1803.42 19,718,001URBAN COLLECTOR 17 238.57 1,203,949URBAN LOCAL 19 0.00 0

13,853.38 175,575,606TOTAL

TDOT Region 1 – TRIMS WithCensus Tracts






LEGEND:LEGEND:

Census Tracts







LEGEND:LEGEND:

Census Tracts

TDOT Region 1 – Model NetworkTDOT Region 1 – Model Network





LEGEND:LEGEND:






LEGEND:LEGEND:

TRIMS/Model ComparisonTRIMS/Model Comparison

NATIONAL FUNCTIONAL NFC Travel Model/TRIMS Travel Model/TRIMSCLASSIFICATION CODE Model TRIMS Ratio Model TRIMS Ratio

RURAL INTERSTATE 01 368.46 368.46 1.00 12,901,049 12,901,049 1.00RURAL OTHER PRINCIPAL ARTERIAL 02 1581.97 1581.97 1.00 13,693,621 13,693,621 1.00RURAL MINOR ARTERIAL 06 2595.38 2595.38 1.00 12,973,803 12,973,803 1.00RURAL MAJ OR COLLECTOR 07 299.58 3625.57 0.08 640,940 7,756,768 0.08RURAL MINOR COLLECTOR 08 0 8.03 0.00 0 19,522 0.00RURAL LOCAL 09 0 0 -NA- 0 0 -NA-URBAN INTERSTATE 11 613.27 613.27 1.00 44,535,171 44,535,171 1.00URBAN FREEWAY OR EXPRESSWAY 12 300.84 300.84 1.00 10,834,901 10,834,901 1.00URBAN OTHER PRINCIPAL ARTERIAL 14 2717.87 2717.87 1.00 51,938,821 51,938,821 1.00URBAN MINOR ARTERIAL 16 525.39 1803.42 0.29 5,744,441 19,718,001 0.29URBAN COLLECTOR 17 0 238.57 0.00 0 1,203,949 0.00URBAN LOCAL 19 0.00 0.00 -NA- 0 0 -NA-

9,002.76 13,853.38 0.65 153,262,747 175,575,606 0.87

ROUTE MILES DVMT

TOTAL

National NetworkNational Network





LEGEND:LEGEND:

TDOT Region 3 – Model Network With Census Tracts

TDOT Region 3 – Model Network With Census Tracts





LEGEND:LEGEND:

2000 Census Tracts

REGION 1 TAZsREGION 1 TAZs





LEGEND:LEGEND:

TAZ Boundary






LEGEND:LEGEND:

TAZ Boundary

REGION 1 GridREGION 1 Grid





LEGEND:LEGEND:

TAZ Boundary






LEGEND:LEGEND:

TAZ Boundary

framework for model development general model design highway network/traffic analysis zones (tazs)...

Documents

transportation slide

tennessee slide

conservation slide

trims data slide

transportation projects

economic research

economic report

miles of critical waterway