framing the global warming challenge
DESCRIPTION
A presentation for churches.TRANSCRIPT
Steven Howard Johnson
January 2012
Framing the Global Warming Challenge:
A presentation for churches
What I Hope You’ll Remember
• CO2 is up 40% and rising rapidly
• CO2 affects Earth’s ability to cool itself
• Slower Emissions: NOT ENOUGH
• Real Solution: Clean Energy Portfolio
• Church can witness for clean energy
Topic to Examine
• Introducing a BIG Problem
• The Earth’s Natural Cooling System
• An Emissions Reduction Problem?
• Problem Logic, Solution Logic
• How To Solve the Problem
Fossil Fuels are VERY PopularBuildings use
natural gasVehicles use
petroleum
Industry uses natural
gas, oil, and coalElectric utilities use coal and
natural gas
Fossil Fuel Consumption in U.S.
• Coal: 1 Billion Tons Per Year
• Petroleum: 7.5 Billion Barrels/Year
• Natural Gas: 22 Trillion Cubic Feet Per Year
Almost 6 Billion Tonnes Carbon Dioxide
Tonnes? Or Parts Per Million?
• On the ground, governments measure
carbon dioxide emissions in Billions of
Tonnes
• In the atmosphere, scientists measure
stocks of carbon dioxide in Parts Per
Million
For now, let’s use Tonnes, not PPM
• One millionth part CO2 in the atmosphere weighs 7.77 billion tonnes
• So 280 PPM, the norm before the Industrial Revolution, weighed 2,175 billion tonnes
CO2 Rough Rules of Thumb
• If global emissions = 30 billion tonnes/year
• Then:
– 8 billion tonnes are taken up by forests . . .
– 7 billion tonnes are absorbed by the ocean
–15 billion tonnes stay in atmosphere (~2 PPM)
Total CO2 Now: 3,044 Billion Tonnes(up 16.5 Billion Tonnes in 2011)
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
19
58
19
62
19
66
19
70
19
74
19
78
19
82
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86
19
90
19
94
19
98
20
02
20
06
20
10
Bill
ion
s o
f To
nn
es
Atmospheric CO2
+40%
(Pre-Industrial Norm)
CO2 rise is accelerating
4.5
9.28.1
11.811.3
12.4
9.7
14.4
16.2
14.8
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
1961 -1965
1966 -1970
1971 -1975
1976 -1980
1981 -1985
1986 -1990
1991 -1995
1996 -2000
2001 -2005
2006 -2010
New
CO
2, in
Billio
ns
of
To
nn
es
Annual Increase in Stock of CO2(5 Year Averages)
Takeaway:
• Atmospheric stock of carbon dioxide is up 40% from its pre-industrial norm
• This total is now growing at 7% a decade
• There’s no going back
Topic to Examine
• Introducing a BIG Problem
• The Earth’s Natural Cooling System
• An Emissions Reduction Problem?
• Problem Logic, Solution Logic
• How To Solve the Problem
Emissions are accelerating
The stock of CO2 is growing
Why Do We Care?
The Earth takes in
loads of energy
from the sun . . .
Energy IN: 2.9 Million TWH/Day
ENERGY IN
Visible Light
Why doesn’t the Earth just get hotter and hotter?
Maybe the Earth has its own cooling
system?
Cars cool themselves using radiators and water . . .
People cool themselves by sweating . . .
Dogs cool themselves by panting . . .
How does the Earth cool itself?
By radiating infrared energy back into space . . .
(the Earth’s natural cooling system)
Energy OUT: 2.9 Million TWH/Day
ENERGY IN
Visible Light
ENERGY OUT
Infrared
Infrared cooling helps the Earth maintain a stable
average temperature . . .
. . . unless . . .
. . . New CO2 reduces Energy OUT . . .
ENERGY IN
Visible Light
ENERGY OUT
Infrared
With ENERGY OUT shrinking . . .
. . . the Earth gets warmer
. . . the Earth gets warmer
• How much warmer?
+ 2.0 degrees Celsius per century
+ 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade
One eighteen-thousandth of a degree per
day
Retained infrared warms the Earth
WARMEREARTH
ENERGY IN
Visible Light
ENERGY OUT
Infrared
. . . and because the Earth is warmer, its daily production
of infrared goes up . . .
Warmer Earth = more Energy OUT
ENERGY IN
Visible Light
ENERGY OUT
Infrared
WARMEREARTH
If the stock of CO2 were to
stabilize, the Earth’s
temperature would also
stabilize
However!
Since the stock of CO2 is still
growing, it will intercept
even more infrared . . .
And the Earth will continue to warm
Takeaway:
• By boosting atmospheric CO2
we interfere with the Earth’s natural cooling system . . .
• . . . and Global Warming continues
Interesting . . .
So what kind of problem is this?
Topic to Examine
• Introducing a BIG Problem
• The Earth’s Natural Cooling System
• An Emissions Reduction Problem?
• Problem Logic, Solution Logic
• How To Solve the Problem
If extreme danger begins at 4,000 . . .
. . . maybe we get there by 2070 . . .
. . . or maybe 2090. Does it matter?
In a slower emissions scenario . . .
• We burn the same amount of fossil fuel
• It just takes longer
• No matter when we reach the red zone, the same amount of damage is in store
Capping CO2 is the only safe solution
TAKEAWAY:Slower Emissions is NOT a
solution
Topic to Examine
• Introducing a BIG Problem
• The Earth’s Natural Cooling System
• An Emissions Reduction Problem?
• Problem Logic, Solution Logic
• How To Solve the Problem
First: Recognize the logic chain
Energy Technology Fossil Fuel Consumption
Fossil Fuel Consumption Carbon Dioxide Emissions
CO2 Emissions Total Stock Atmospheric CO2
Total Stock Atmospheric CO2 Global Warming
Global Warming Climate Change
Climate Change Humanitarian Catastrophes
Climate change is different
• Rules of proportionality shape the first part of the logic chain . . .
• But not climate change, which is triggered when thresholds are reached
• Rules of proportionality cannot predict total climate risk
Oceans and marine life also at risk
• As oceans absorb CO2 from the air, much of it turns into carbonic acid
• This puts marine life at risk
– Greater acidity threatens reproduction
– Shellfish may lose access to calcium carbonate
• The greater the CO2 in the oceans, the greater the threat to marine life
Now: Recognize the solution logic
For climate change to halt, global warming must be halted.
For global warming to halt, the stock of CO2 must be capped.
If CO2 is to be capped, CO2 emissions (FF) must be halted.
To halt CO2 emissions, fossil fuel consumption must be halted.
To halt fossil fuel consumption, clean energy must be adopted.
To limit humanitarian tragedies, climate change must be halted.
Takeaway:
• Global warming CAN be halted IF –and only if – we commit ourselves to a clean energy future
Topic to Examine
• Introducing a BIG Problem
• The Earth’s Natural Cooling System
• An Emissions Reduction Problem?
• Problem Logic, Solution Logic
• How To Solve the Problem
Clean Energy? How?
Here’s some good news
• America consumes 56 TWH/Day of energy (terawatt-hours/day)
• America receives 50,000 TWH/Day of ambient sunshine
• Capture only a thousandth and we can power America’s economy
Here’s more good news . . .
• Clean energy will get cheaper and cheaper over time
So What Do We Do?
Five Key Steps
1. Improve Energy Efficiency
2. Adopt Clean Source Technologies
3. Adopt Clean User Technologies
4. Develop Phase-Out Programs
5. Remember How We Got Here
1. Improve Energy Efficiency
• Utilities will promote efficiency if rewarded
• Businesses are losing money by ignoring efficiency
• Tighten auto mileage standards
• Great returns: $1 invested yields $3 in savings
2. Adopt Clean Source Technologies
• Clean Energy Electricity
• Clean Energy Liquid Fuel
• Clean Energy Heat
3. Adopt Clean User Technologies
• Clean energy buildings (homes, offices, stores)
• Clean energy vehicles
– autos, trucks, trains, planes, boats, motorcycles . . .
• Clean energy industry
4. Develop phase-out programs
• Not the fault of fossil fuel employees that their fuels cause global warming
• Develop a forty year phase-out plan
• Provide transition assistance on many fronts
5. Remember how we got here
• We’ll dig ourselves out of this hole the same way we dug ourselves in
–One consumer purchase at a time . . .
–One capital purchase at a time . . .
What Can the Church Say?
What the Church Can Say . . .
• Fossil Fuel Energy is Risky
–Climate Risks
–Humanitarian Risks
–Ocean Risks
What the Church Can Say . . .
• Only one atmosphere
• We are in this together–As human communities across the
planet–As nations–As local communities
• We will solve this together
• Or we will fail together
What the Church Can Say . . .
• This is an worldwide energy
technology problem
• Likely to cause terrible damage
• “Emission reduction” isn’t enough
• Clean Energy Portfolios are essential
everywhere
What we can do . . .
. . . in our homes and churches
• Efficiency audits, efficiency investments
• Buy the wind add-on from your utility
• Better home insulation
• Geothermal assist
• Solar panels
Remember the Solution: Safer technologies Safer future
What I Hope You’ll Remember
• CO2 is up 40% and rising rapidly
• CO2 affects Earth’s ability to cool itself
• Slower Emissions: NOT ENOUGH
• Real Solution: Clean Energy Portfolio
• Church can witness for clean energy
Thank You