Vikram Rajput Business Development Manager DEWI-OCC GmbH – Germany Email-Vikramsingh.Rajput@ul.com

From financial death to

the life

RCA & LTE

a UL company

• O&M business model

• Continuous improvement system and culture

• O&M strategies

Wind Farm ROI

• Quality of SCADA systems

• Need for technology upgrades (e.g. blade extensions)

• Vane malfunction• Dirty blades

• Large component failures

• Small component Failures

• Maintenance strategy

• Component availability

O&M costsEfficiencyAvailabilityLevers

• Revenue

LTE

3 % 2 % 10 %

Possible Targetvalues >20%

Four main levers to improve ROI (Wind Farms Assets)

RCA

Wind power plant life cycle

Development ConstructionOperation & Maintenance

Life Time Extension

Decommissioning Repowering

Root Cause Analysis

• Concept• Design Basis• Design

• Manufacturing• Transport and

Installation

• Operation & Maintenance

Financial death @20 yrs

20 Yrs

Don’t confuse symptoms with root cause

Why to go for RCA?

pain gain

Why wind industry needs special method for RCA?

There are many industry standard technique available but non of them are targeted specific to wind industry.

The question paper for wind is different than other industry – we can’t copy paste the answer

Standard available on RCA:IEC : 62740

VDI 3822

Damage

O & M

Transportation & Inst.

Manufacturing

Design

Design Basis

R

C

A

Events and causal factors (ECF) charting

Multilinear events

sequencing (MES) and

The ‘why’ method

plotting (STEP)Causes tree method

(CTM)

Why-because analysis (WBA)

Fault tree and success tree

Fishbone or Ishikawa

Safety through organizational

Management oversight and

risk tree (MORT)

AcciMaps

Tripod Beta

Causal analysis for systems

theoretic accident model and

process (STAMP) (CAST)

RCA techniques

The Why Method

Correlation matrix

Pareto

Fishbone

What happe

nedWhere When

By whom

Purpose and scope

DEWI OCC Process

Contradiction matrix

Cause of focus event Measurement

Validation

Validation

Problem statement

In Service- O&M

Design Design Basis

Fishbone for 6 phase Transport. & Inst.

Manufacturingcommissioning

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Factor 1 Factor 2 Factor 3 Factor 4 Factor 5 Factor 6 Factor 7

Pareto Chart

OCCURRENCES CUMULATIVE PERCENTCorrelation Matrix

Priority Matrix

The Why Method

Life time extension Certification– UL 4143ANSI standard

Designed Life

Extended Life

What is Life Time Extension

Why are we talking about it?

LTE

Insurance Companies

Financial Entities

Administration

Manufacturers

O&M

Owners / Investors

15

• Claims• Negotiation

• Loan re-negotiation• Risk Management

• Safety Protocols• Energetic-Mix

Regulations• Industry

• New products• Engineering• New demands for tenders

• New costs scenario (corrective / preventive)

• Inspections

• Increment assets valuation

• M&A

How is it done?

Design of wind turbine

17

Damage Equivalent load (DEL)

??

??

Site Condition

??

Wind shear 0.2

Air density 1.225

Up flow angle 8 deg

Turbulence intensity 16 % or 18 %

According to Site Specific Conditions different

scenarios are common:

Extended life

Site external conditions

Wind turbine Operational conditions

Aero elastic simulation

model

Aero elastic simulation

Damage equivalent load for critical component

Selection of DLCs which are relevant for site

Clustering of turbines into cells

Derivation of remaining useful life for critical components based on load comparison

Inspection

Risk priority number

4

1 2 3

5

6

7

8

9

Flow Chart for LTE

UL 4143 – ANSI standard

Cluster 1Cluster 2

Worst case turbine

Worst case turbine

𝑅𝑈𝐿 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡 = 𝐷𝐸𝐿 𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛 − 𝐷𝐸𝐿 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑑 + 𝐷𝐸𝐿 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑑

Remaining Useful life (RUL) calculation

21

Failure ModeSeverity (1-10)

Confidence Level (1, 5 or 10) RPZ Number

A breakdown method of the entire wind farm to smaller cells considered

Wind shear considered

Turbulency intensity per turbine considered

Wake effects considered

Transient events considered

Changes to site conditions (due to changes in topography of the site) during the turbine operation considered

Operational characteristics (working hours, etc.) considered

Current state of mechanical and structural components (e.g. damages, fatigue) including the foundation considered

Measurements of external conditions performed

SCADA data is available and considered for operational conditions

Original/design Control and safety concept is available and is considered for the RUL calculation

Original design parameters (e.g. mass, stiffness,…) are considered

Coeficients for blade / tower are corrected for site specific parameters

Validated simulation software is used

Change of the control software versions is considered

Relevant design load cases considered for the RUL calculation

Changed turbine behavior (e.g. update of software during life time, de-rated, curtailment) considered

Original operational control logic is available and considered

Original design loads are available (related to turbine certificate(s))

Results of structural analysis from design are considered for the RUL of specific components

Risk Priority Number

RPZ >50 is not permitted

BENEFITS

Detect Site-Specific Turbines Components Life, identifying Long-

Term Value of the Asset.

Reduce the risk in the financing or re-financing process, allowing

longer and more comfortable debt return periods with less risk

for the financing entity.

Detect the ramp-up of failures on the main components and

their long term corrective maintenance, turning it into preventive

maintenance, reducing the costs of O&M.

Evaluate if an investment in maintenance or in retrofits will havean adequate return, detecting the risk of failure for other main

components.

Extend Turbines Life based on Site-Specific Conditions,

maximizing the Long-Term Value of the Asset.

Thank- You!

Let’s Get life!!

Project Cliente Year Scope Country WT model

1 Confidential 2015 LTE for valuation if wind portfolio (10 wind farms) Italy Various

2 Confidential 2015 LTE for valuation if wind portfolio (19 wind farms) Spain, France, Belgium Various

3 Confidential 2016 LTE for valuation if wind portfolio (16 wind farms) UK Various

4 Confidential 2016 RUL exploratory analysis 1 wind farm Mexico Acciona AW3000

5 Confidential 2016 Revision methodology Life Extension Estrategy Spain Various

6 Confidential 2016 Revision aerolastic modelling with Loads Calculations Spain Gamesa G47

7 Confidential 2016 Aerolastic modeling, loads calculations and RUL Germany GE77-1.5

8 Confidential 2016 Aerolastic modeling, loads calculations and RUL before and after retrofit Spain Acciona AW1500

9 Confidential 2016 Aerolastic modeling, loads calculations and RUL before and after retrofit Spain Neg Micon NM52

10 Confidential 2016 Aerolastic modeling, loads calculations and RUL before and after retrofit Spain Gamesa G47

Project Reference List