from welfare state to opportunity state
TRANSCRIPT
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From Welfare State toOpportunity StateHow Progressives Should Respond to Demographic Change
Matt Browne, John Halpin, and Ruy Teixeira April 2011
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Te “Demographic Change and Progressive Poliical Sraegy” series o papers is a join projec organized
under he auspices o he Global Progress and Progressive Sudies programs and he Cener or American
Progress. Te research projec was launched ollowing he inaugural Global Progress conerence held in
Ocober 2009 in Madrid, Spain.
Te preparaory paper or ha conerence, “Te European Paradox ,” sough o analyze why he orunes o
European progressive paries had declined ollowing he previous auumn’s sudden nancial collapse and
he global economic recession ha ensued. Te saring premise was ha progressives should, in principle,
have had wo srenghs going or hem:
• Modernizing rends were shiing he demographic errain in heir poliical avor.• Te inellecual and policy bankrupcy o conservaism, which had now proven isel devoid o creaive
ideas o how o shape he global economic sysem or he common good.
Despie hese laen advanages, we surmised ha progressives in Europe were sruggling or hree pri-
mary reasons. Firs, i was increasingly hard o diereniae hemselves rom conservaive opponens who
seemed o be wholehearedly adoping social democraic policies and language in response o he eco-
nomic crisis. Second, he nominally progressive majoriy wihin heir elecorae was being spli beween
compeing progressive movemens. Tird, heir radiional working-class base was increasingly being
seduced by a poliics o ideniy raher han economic argumens.
In response, we argued ha i progressives could dene heir long-erm economic agenda more clearly—
and hus diereniae hemselves rom conservaives—as well as esablish broader and more inclusive
elecoral coaliions, and organize more eecively among heir core consiuencies o convey heir mes-
sage, hen hey should be able o resolve his paradox.
Te research papers in his series each evaluae hese demographic and ideological rends in greaer
naional deail and presen ideas or how progressives migh shape a more eecive poliical sraegy.
We are graeul o he Friedrich-Eber-Siung or heir suppor o his projec.
Mat Browne, John Halpin, and Ruy eixeira
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1 Introduction and summary
3 The shifting politics of the economic crisis
4 A new politics of identity
6 The new progressive coalition
6 The decline of the working class
7 Rising educational levels and white collarization
9 Immigrants and minorities
10 Women
11 Decline of traditional family and traditional religion
12 The rise of the Millennial generation
15 The opportunity state and the future of progressive pol
19 Endnotes
20 About the authors
Contents
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1 Center or American Progress | From Welare State to Opportunity State
Introduction and summary
In Ocober 2009, he Cener or American Progress published “Te European
Paradox,” a paper prepared or he inaugural Global Progress Conerence held in
Madrid ha monh.1 Ta paper sough o analyze why he orunes o European
progressive paries had declined ollowing he previous auumn’s sudden nancial
collapse and he global economic recession ha ensued.
Te saring premise was ha progressives should, in principle, have had wo
srenghs going or hem. Firs, we argued ha modernizing rends were shiinghe demographic errain in heir poliical avor. Second, we assered ha he crisis
had illusraed he inellecual and policy bankrupcy o conservaism, which had
now proven isel devoid o creaive ideas o how o shape he global economic
sysem or he common good.
Despie hese laen advanages, we surmised ha progressives in Europe were
sruggling or hree primary reasons. Firs, i was increasingly hard o diereni-
ae hemselves rom conservaive opponens who seemed o be wholehearedly
adoping social democraic policies and language in response o he economic
crisis. Second, he nominally progressive majoriy wihin heir elecorae was
being spli beween compeing progressive movemens. Tird, heir radiional
working class base o suppor was boh shrinking and increasingly being seduced
by a new poliics o ideniy driven by culural insecuriies raher han by eco-
nomic argumens.
In response, we argued ha i progressives could dene heir long-erm economic
agenda more clearly—and hus diereniae hemselves rom conservaives—
esablish broader more inclusive elecoral coaliions, and organize more eecively
among heir core consiuencies o convey heir message, hen hey should be ableo resolve his paradox over ime.
While many o he prescripions we oulined in ha paper over a year and a hal
ago sill hold, i is high ime or us o revisi and reassess he challenges progres-
sives now ace. Tis is he ocus o our paper. In he pages ha ollow, we will
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examine he shiing poliics o he economic crisis ha has enabled righ-wing
populism o seal away progressive consiuencies on one side o he poliical spec-
rum, while more leis paries have nabbed progressive values voers on he oher
side. We hen delve in more deail ino his new poliics o ideniy and break
down he elemens o a new progressive coaliion ha mus answer his challenge:
• Te radiional (ye shrinking) working class• Rising educaed, middle class, and proessional voers• Immigrans and minoriies• Women• Singles and seculars• Te younger generaion
Aer examining how hese new poliical acors ino he conours o radiional
progressive paries, we hen conclude wih wha we hope is a provocaive argu-
men ha progressives mus go beyond deending he welare sae o advocacy o a new agenda cenered on wha we call he opporuniy sae.
We believe he uure o progressivism ress on our suppor o his opporuniy
sae, which we argue mus show he voers o our new coaliion how progressive
sae acion can enhance heir individual lie opporuniies and help hem build
a solid middle-class lie hrough lielong educaional opporuniies, high-wage,
high-skilled economies, he ransormaion o inrasrucure and ciies, clean
energy, a more modern ax and labor marke sysem, new inernaional leader-
ship, and he creaion o a global middle class and new expor markes. We look
orward o your reacions.
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The shifting politics of the
economic crisis
In he space o 18 monhs, he European paradox—he conras beween seemingly
avorable underlying condiions or progressives and unavorable poliical ou-
comes—has muaed, become more severe, and spread. A new poliics o auseriy
has ransormed he poliical landscape, in Europe, Norh America, and Ausralasia.
In he public mind, wha began as a crisis o casino capialism—deregulaed nancial
markes and bankers’ irresponsibiliy—has become a crisis o he proigae sae—
excessive public decis and unnecessary and unhelpul governmen inervenion.
While in he mids o he global economic crisis progressives ound i hard o disin-
guish hemselves rom a righ-wing movemen ha seemed—a leas in Europe—o
have adoped many o he core enes o progressive economic policymaking, oday,
he role o he sae and governmen spending is being subjeced o a harsh atack.
Tis new conservaive narraive combines a seducive sory o economic decline in
he ace o rising powers in Asia and waseul governmen spending wih ear o he
oher: be hey immigrans, minoriies or oreigners.
Tis is poliics ha is srong on message bu shor on policy, devoid o any real solu-
ions o our socieies’ economic and social woes. Is cenral hrus is an appeal o he
comor o old ideniies, old ways o hinking, and old srucures. Unorunaely, or
he ime being, i is proving successul a he ballo.
While we should no be surprised by he conservaive movemen’s shor-lived sup-
por or economic simulus and public invesmen—i had dissipaed long beore he
Group o 20 developed and developing naion’s key summi in orono las all—he
incapaciy o progressives o dene and deend an alernaive economic agenda is
roubling. In boh Europe and he Unied Saes, long-erm unemploymen remains
persisenly high, wih he poenial o rise urher, and he hrea o a deaionary rap is ever presen. Worse sill, he poenial or sovereign deaul looms over many
Eurozone counries. Te resurgence o he old conservaive economic orhodoxy no
only pus long-erm job growh and economic recovery a risk, bu also promoes a
horoughly unprogressive syle o leadership—one ha glories he abiliy o impose
suering on ohers in ough imes.
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Ye he cenral enes o a progressive alernaive remain unclear. Indeed, in he
curren climax, progressives seem rapped in a socioeconomic conundrum—
orced o deend he saus quo agains a relenless righ-wing atack raher
han ouline a orward-looking agenda o invesmen and reorm. Consider, or
example, ha in many European labor markes an insider-ousider dynamic has
emerged in which progressives are orced o deend he privileged working condi-ions, secure long-erm conracs and generous benes aorded esablished work-
ers, even i hey are no longer suiable o he curren economy—and even i hey
make i increasingly difcul or younger workers o nd employmen.
When progressives do presen overall labor-marke reorms, hese proposals are
oen resised by rade unions, spliting he movemen and alienaing core suppor
groups. Tis challenge becomes ever more acue—paricularly or hose like us
who view rade unions as an essenial ingredien o any rue progressive coali-
ion—as he size o he radiional working class, and hus i’s relaive imporance
o he progressive coaliion declines. Coninuing wih he saus quo will surely lead o more elecoral bleeding o reormis or cener-righ paries. Bu charing a
new pah on labor marke reorm ha provides greaer exibiliy while mainain-
ing he social democraic commimen o economic securiy will be difcul, and
will have o develop in parnership and dialogue wih new consiuencies, paries
and reormed rade union movemens.
A new politics of identity
In his conex, i is perhaps unsurprising ha anxiey abou he uure is rising
and ha ciizens in many o he indusrialized counries across he globe ear
heir bes days are no longer ahead o hem. Tis anxiey is producing new erile
grounds or righ-wing populism.
Emerging in parallel o he radiional albei revialized conservaive atack on
he sae is he presence o a more proound, i nuanced, poliics o ideniy.
Ineresingly, his new poliics o ideniy has boh a posiive and negaive ele-
men. On he one hand, middle-class progressive-values voers and he younger
generaion place an ever-increasing imporance on a oleran sociey ha sup-pors equaliy or gays, promoes muliculuralism, and expresses concern or he
environmen. Tese are wha one could erm posmaerial voers, who are also
commonly among he main beneciaries o he globalizaion o he economy.
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On he oher hand, a conservaive poliics o ear is being promoed by he righ.
Tis negaive poliics o ideniy works o insill animosiy—oen among hose
whose economic orunes and securiy have declined during he las ew decades
or who are eeling “squeezed” by declining public services and rising living coss
—oward he aoremenioned groups. Tis negaive poliics atacks a remoe
poliical elie and vilies minoriies and hose wih an alernaive liesyle, blaminghem or he decline in moral values, increased economic compeiion or boh
good and bad jobs and declining, and inefcien public services.
aken in combinaion, his new poliics o ideniy raps progressives on boh
sides. Whaever poliical posiion hey adop is bound o alienae eiher heir
working class voers, who end o be more conservaive wih regards o values, or
progressive-values voers and he Millennial generaion, who are urned o by he
more naionalis rheoric ha appeals o he radiional or core voer base.
Tese rends play ou dierenly rom counry o counry, depending on hedegree o poliical compeiion on he le and righ, or he barriers o enry or
new poliical paries. Regardless o he sysem, however, i is common o winess
a ragmenaion o he progressive voe. Te radiional working class is peeled o
o he le and exreme righ by hose seeking o deend he saus quo and oppose
socioeconomic and culural change. Urban and aspiran voers oo, are atraced
by more values-driven movemens and paries such as he greens and liberals, in
par ou o rusraion wih he radiional social democraic and labor paries
inabiliy o modernize heir agenda and embrace he uure.
Boh hese groups—he populis righ and he values-driven le—appear atrac-
ive in heir absoluism, which ends o presen radiional progressive paries as
managerial raher han drivers o change. Indeed, and perhaps more worryingly,
he message o social democraic paries oen amouns o litle more han he
promise o manage decline beter han heir compeiors. However, compeing
progressive paries share a common crucial ailing, namely ha hey end o be
clienelisic in naure, caering o specic groups wih specic ineress. While
heir agendas respond o he immediae and specic concerns o heir consiu-
ens, hey do no oer a naional agenda o renewal ha can ound he basis or a
broader governing consiuency.
So his is he poliical landscape, broadly skeched, in which progressives need o
orge a new poliical coaliion. In he nex secion, we will deail he makeup o
he new progressive coaliion.
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6 Center or American Progress | From Welare State to Opportunity State
The new progressive coalition
In his new conex, he core poliical challenge or radiional progressive paries is
o shape a new poliical ideniy capable o orging a coaliion ha brings ogeher:
• Te radiional (ye shrinking) working class• Rising educaed, middle class, and proessional voers• Immigrans and minoriies• Women• Singles and seculars• Te younger generaion
Te counry sudies done or our cross-naional projec on progressive sraegy and
demographic change demonsrae no jus he desirabiliy bu he necessiy o his
new progressive coaliion. Sar wih he decline o he radiional working class.
The decline of the working class
Across all counries, he size o he radiional or blue-collar working class is
declining sharply. In Germany, or example, he proporion o blue-collar workers
in he workorce has been cu in hal since he lae 1950s o jus over one-quarer
o he workorce oday, while he proporion o whie collar workers has nearly
ripled o 57 percen.2 Similarly, in Sweden he proporion o blue-collar workers
has been cu in hal o one-quarer o he workorce jus since he mid-1970s.
Closely relaed o his rend, employmen in he indusrial secor has dropped rap-
idly across counries, replaced by employmen in he service secor. In Germany,
he indusrial secor has declined rom 55 percen o employmen in 1950 o jus26 percen oday. Similarly, in he Neherlands indusrial employmen dropped
rom 40 percen o 20 percen o he workorce beween 1950 and 2003, and in
he Unied Kingdom rom 47 percen o 24 percen over he same period.3
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Finally, union membership has been seadily dropping across counries. In he
Neherlands, union membership has dropped rom 32 percen o 24 percen o he
workorce beween 1970 and 2009. In Ausralia, union membership has been cu in
hal jus since 1990, declining rom 41 percen o 20 percen o workorce.
Since labor and social democraic paries were buil around unionized, blue-collarworkers in indusry, hese rends ogeher signal a dramaic undercuting o he ra-
diional voing base o hese paries. O course, he magniude o hese rends varies
across counries, and in some hese rends are less severe han in ohers. Bu he un-
damenal ac remains ha in all counries he radiional base o social democraic
paries has been subsanially eroded, and is likely o erode urher in he uure.
Moreover, he problem o he declining working class is even more severe han ha
suggesed by he raw numbers on decline. Tis is because even as he ranks o he
radiional working class hin ou hey also become less supporive o social democras
in many counries. In Sweden, he Social Democras’ share o he LO (blue-collarworkers union) voe has declined by 20 poins rom 1982 o 2010. In Denmark, Social
Democras’ share o he radiional working-class voe declined by 17 poins rom he
1960s o he 1990s, in he Unied Kingdom by 18 poins rom he 1960s o he 2000s
and in France (second round presidenial voe) by 19 poins rom 1974 o 2007. 4
Again, here is much variaion across counries in he magniude o his rend. Indeed,
in some counries, among hem Ausralia and perhaps Spain, here appears o be
relaively litle diminuion o working-class suppor or social democras. Bu in mos
counries, i is a serious problem.
Tere is also considerable variaion in where he los suppor rom blue-collar work-
ers is going. Some o i is going o he radiional righ, bu in counries wih srong
mulipary sysems much o ha los suppor also nds is way o paries o he popu-
lis le, such as he Socialis Pary in Neherlands or he Le Pary in Germany, and
he populis righ (he PVV in Neherlands, he Naional Fron in France, he Sweden
Democras in Sweden, JOBBIK in Hungary), wih he later ypically predominaing
over he ormer.
Rising educational levels and white collarization
Te oher side o he decline in he radiional working class is he rise o whie-
collar and proessional workers (someimes lumped in wih shopkeepers and he
sel-employed and reerred o by he cach-all phrase “middle class”). As menioned
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earlier, he proporion o whie-collar workers in Germany’s workorce has nearly
ripled since he 1950s, and he rae o whie collarizaion is no ar o in oher
counries. Tis is a universal rend.
Closely relaed o his is anoher universal rend: he rise in educaional levels.
Across counries here has been a sharp decline in he ranks o hose wih helowes levels o educaion and a rapid increase in hose wih he highes levels o
educaion—college and advanced degrees. In he Neherlands, or example, he
proporion a his educaional level rose 15 poins beween 1985 and 2009, and
in France his proporion rose 14 poins beween 1982 and 2006. As a number o
he counry sudies noed, he highly educaed group is expeced o coninue is
rapid growh in he uure.
Tese are changes wih proound implicaions or progressives. Simply on he
level o numbers, he sheer size o he whie-collar populaion means social demo-
craic paries have become ar more dependen on whie-collar voes or elecoralsuccess han hey were in he pas. As poliical scienis Gerassimos Moschonas
has shown,5 as he radiional working class declined in size and reduced is sup-
por levels or social democras, hese paries did manage o compensae—a leas
parially—by atracing whie-collar voes, requenly a higher raes han hey
did in earlier decades. As a resul, he weigh o whie-collar voers among he
social democraic elecorae has increased dramaically. ake Sweden, or example,
where 67 percen o Social Democraic voers were blue collar in 1976 compared
o jus 27 percen who were whie collar—by 2006, he blue-collar proporion
had dropped o 40 percen while he whie-collar share had risen in 49 percen.
Perhaps he mos progressive elemen o he burgeoning whie-collar popula-
ion is proessionals, who have he highes educaional levels. Since he highly
educaed are increasing so rapidly, his would appear o be good news or social
democras. Te problem, however, is ha proessionals and he highly educaed,
while progressive, do no necessarily choose he social democras when hey voe
progressive and here are muliple paries o choose rom.
Insead, hey requenly urn o social democras’ compeiors on he cener-le,
especially liberals and greens. Because o his, social democras acually endo underperorm among hese consiuencies relaive o heir overall elecoral
suppor, while heir cener-le compeiors overperorm. In an analysis o 2006
daa on 12 European counries—Ausria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Ireland, Neherlands, Norway, Sweden, Swizerland, and he Unied
Kingdom—Social Democras underperormed across counries by 2 poins
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among he college educaed, and by 1 percenage poin among proessionals,
while he res o he cener-le overperormed by 6 poins among he college
educaed and by 8 poins among proessionals.6
A recen case in poin: In Germany in he 2009 elecion, Social Democras did
5 poins worse among proessionals han among nonproessionals, and 7 poinsworse among he college educaed han he noncollege educaed, while he
Greens did 8 poins beter among proessionals and 9 poins beter among he col-
lege educaed han among hose wihou hese characerisics.
So, while he rise o proessionals and he highly educaed may be a boon or pro-
gressives overall, i is no necessarily a boon or social democras. O course, his
dynamic varies by counry, and is inuenced, among oher hings, by he naure o
he pary sysem. Generally speaking, he closer o a wo-pary sysem a counry
is, he more likely he main le pary can capure hese consiuencies. Conversely,
he more robus he mulipary sysem, he less likely he main le pary willdominae hese consiuencies.
Te Unied Saes provides a limiing case—essenially a pure wo-pary sysem—
and he Democras do indeed dominae he proessional voe. Te oher side o
he equaion is shown by counries such as he Neherlands and Germany, where
Liberal and Green Paries drain away progressive proessionals o he clear deri-
men o he social democras.
Tis conras is nealy illusraed wihin one counry, Ausralia. In he Ausralian
sysem, he primary voe is a voer’s rs choice among all paries; he wo-pary
preerred voe is, in essence, which o he wo main paries—he Labor Pary or
Naional Coaliion—he voer preers. In 2007, proessionals gave Labor 43 per-
cen o heir rs preerence voe (2 poins under he overall elecorae) bu gave
Labor 58 percen o heir wo-pary preerred voe (4 poins more han he overall
elecorae). Te dierence was an unusually high primary voe or he Greens
among his group, which hen ranslaed ino Labor suppor on he wo-pary
preerred voe.
Immigrants and minorities
Over he las ew decades, he immigran and minoriy populaion has increased
subsanially across counries and in mos o hem is coninuing o increase. In
he Unied Kingdom, he nonwhie (black, Asian, and minoriy ehnic, or BAME)
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populaion is projeced o reach 20 percen o he populaion by 2031, compared
o 13 percen in 2001. In he Neherlands, he migran populaion share is pro-
jeced o reach 26 percen by 2040. In Spain, he immigran populaion has grown
rom 200,000 o jus under 6 million since 1981. In France, around 150,000 newly
nauralized ciizens are being added o he elecion rolls every year, which could
mean 750,000 newly nauralized ciizens paricipaing as rs-ime voers in he2012 presidenial elecions.
Across counries, he general endency is or immigran and minoriy voers o
voe le—and especially or social democras. Tere are dierences, however, by
counry o origin. In Germany, or example, migrans rom urkey are paricularly
likely o voe Social Democraic while migrans rom he ormer Sovie Union are
leas likely o do so. In France, migrans (and heir children) o Arican origin are
mos supporive o he le. In he Unied Kingdom, hose o Caribbean origin are
mos supporive o Labour, hough all BAME subgroups display much higher sup-
por raes or Labour han he res o he populaion. Bu regardless o variaion, heoverall endency is clear and unambiguous—he rising immigran and minoriy
populaion is a boos or progressives in general and social democras in paricular.
However, several nuances o his rend complicae his posiive sory. One is ha
he poliical eecs o immigraion, especially in erms o naional elecions, end
o be bluned by he nonciizen saus o many immigrans. Second, he immigran
and minoriy populaion ypically sars rom a small base, so even a airly rapid
increase in heir numbers will have limied poliical eecs, a leas compared o
he Unied Saes. Finally, reacions o immigraion are very, very complicaed and
can send radiional working-class voers away rom social democras oward he
righ. And among progressive, culurally oleran consiuencies, social democras
may also nd hemselves losing voes—here o paries like he greens and liberals
ha have a sronger ocus on diversiy and an open sociey.
Women
Hisorically, social democraic paries have done beter among men han women.
Across counries, his endency is being reversed so ha in recen elecions socialdemocras end o do beter among women han men. Ye in mos counries his
dierence is modes, especially when compared o he Unied Saes, and his
dierence has also arrived ar laer han in he Unied Saes, where women sared
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voing more le han men back in he 1970s. Bu he uniormiy o his rend is
neverheless sriking, suggesing ha women voers are likely o become increas-
ingly imporan o progressive elecoral success in mos i no all counries.
One reason or he progressive rend among women is ha he composiion o he
emale populaion has changed in imporan ways. Mos obvious is he enry o women ino he labor orce and ou o a radiional home-bound role ha ended
o oser conservaism. Bu i is also rue ha women have moved rapidly ino he
ranks o higher educaion and more skilled proessions, wih heir rae o advance
requenly eclipsing ha o men. Women are also more likely o be single or o
remain single han hey were in he pas, anoher social change ha promoes a
more progressive viewpoin.
Decline of traditional family and traditional religion
Across counries, he radiional amily is declining and we are seeing a lo more
single-person households. In he Unied Kingdom, he number o single-person
households rose by 73 percen beween 1981 and 2008. In he Neherlands, he
proporion o unmarried voers in he 20 o 65 age group increased rom 26 per-
cen o 36 percen in jus 12 years (1998-2010). In Ausralia, beween 1991 and
2006, he proporion o never-married or divorced women among 25-o 29-year-
old women rose by 14 poins (25 o 39 percen).
By and large, single voers are more likely o suppor he le han married voers.
And among single voers, divorced or separaed voers are even more likely han
never married voers o do so. Overall, hen, i seems clear ha he ongoing rend
oward more single-person households should bene progressives.
Bu as wih proessionals and he highly educaed, hese benes may ow less o
social democras han o heir cener-le compeiors in mulipary sysems. In
he same 12 European counries menioned earlier, social democras underper-
ormed across counries by 2 poins among singles while he res o he cener-le
overperormed by 7 poins among hese voers.7
Along wih he radiional amily, radiional religion is declining and secularism
is on he rise. In Ausralia, he proporion o hose wih no religion rose rom 14
percen o 21 percen beween 1991 and 2006. In he Neherlands, he proporion
o hose wih no religion almos doubled rom 23 percen o 44 percen beween
1971 and 2009. Similarly, in France, hose wih no religion rose rom 13 percen
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o 30 percen beween 1988 and 2007. Oher changes o he radiional religious
universe include increases in hose wih non-Chrisian religious aihs alongside a
general decline in religious observance among hose who reain a Chrisian aih.
On one level, hese changes indirecly bene he le since hey undercu ra-
diional linkages beween religion and poliics, which have ypically beneedconservaive paries. More direcly, secular voers end o lean le poliically. In
he Neherlands, hose wih no religion avored paries o he le over paries o
he righ by 22 poins in 2006. In Ausralia, secular voers gave Labor 65 percen
o heir wo-pary preerred voe in 2007. In addiion, voers wih non-Chrisian
aihs and unobservan voers also end o lean le.
Bu in many counries, he benes o social democras in paricular rom hese
rends are diminished by compeiion rom oher paries on he cener-le—
greens, liberals, and even he populis le. In he Unied Kingdom, or example,
Liberal Democras do much beter han Labour among hose wih no religion.And in Germany, in he 2009 elecion, Social Democras did no receive dispro-
porionae suppor rom unobservan or secular voers, while he greens did 10
poins beter among unobservan Proesans han among observan voers and
he Le Pary did 15 poins beter among seculars han among observan voers.
Even in Ausralia, where seculars gave such a high proporion o heir wo-pary
preerred voe o Labor, heir primary voe or Labor was 15 poins lower due o
an unusually high primary voe or he Greens.
The rise of the Millennial generation
Ino his brave new world seps he Millennial generaion (dened here as hose
born beween 1978 and 2000). Tey compose essenially all o he 18- o 34-year-
old age group o voers and will coninue o do so or anoher seven years, aer
which a new generaion will sar enering he elecorae. In his generaion, all he
rends discussed hus ar nd heir sronges expression. Compared o previous
generaions, Millennials are:
• Less likely o be working class• More likely o be highly educaed• More likely o be proessionals (or in raining o be one)• More likely o be o a minoriy or migran background• More likely be o single (compared o previous generaions a he same age)• More likely o be secular in religious orienaion
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Tey are, in shor, he vessels o moderniy wih an oulook—paricularly among
women—ha is noably cosmopolian, oleran, and open compared o previ-
ous generaions. Tey are also, o course, a generaion whose access o economic
mobiliy bears a vexed relaionship o he welare sae and o he older voers who
are is chie beneciaries.
Te good news or progressives is ha his generaion appears o lean le in mos
counries. O course, as a number o he counry papers poined ou, i is difcul a
his sage o disenangle he eecs o age rom cohor—ha is, he exen o which
young voers may be leaning le simply because hey’re young as opposed o par
o an unusually progressive cohor. Bu cerainly in he Unied Saes here are indi-
caions ha he Millennial generaion is disincively progressive as a generaion, as
well as in oher counries, among hem France, Sweden, Ausralia, and Germany.
Te bad news is ha, excep in he Unied Saes, he Millennial generaion is
relaively small. As mos counry papers noed, declining eriliy has led and willconinue o lead o an older age srucure in heir socieies, where he relaive
weigh o he young declines and ha o he elderly increases. o give jus one
example, in he Neherlands in 1950, jus 8 percen o he populaion was above
65, bu by 2040 ha number is expeced o reach 27 percen.
Ye i’s worh noing ha by 2040 he Millennials will be ages 40 o 62 and on he
cusp o dominaing he ranks o seniors. Tis could over ime miigae any con-
servaive eecs o a senior voer bulge. In addiion, by ha year he generaion
ollowing he Millennials (2001-2020) will be ully in he elecorae, a generaion
ha should be even more aeced by he modernizing rends ha have shaped he
Millennials. Depending on heir poliics, his new generaion could, in andem
wih he Millennials, make he long-erm conservaive poliical eecs o socieal
aging ar less dauning han hey now appear. Sill, i is undeniable ha, or now,
he relaively low-populaion weigh o he Millennials will limi heir progressive
poliical impac.
Te urher bad news is ha is ha in many counries progressive Millennial
voers are looking pas he main le paries o greens and liberals. Tis appears
o be a universal problem excep in he Unied Saes, where he sysem does nopermi his kind o pary compeiion. In Germany in 2009, Social Democras did
8 poins worse among Millennials han among he earlies generaion o voers,
while he Greens did 15 poins beter among Millennials han among he oldes
voers. In he same 12 European counries menioned earlier Social Democras
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underperormed across counries by 4 poins among Millennials, while he res o
he cener-le overperormed by 9 poins among hese voers. And mos shock-
ingly, in Hungary Social Democras’ curren suppor among he Millennial genera-
ion is so low i is no signicanly dieren rom zero in a saisical sense.
As a number o he counry papers noed, he relaive unatraciveness o socialdemocras o younger voers in heir counries is resuling in a rapid aging o he
suppor base or hese paries. In he Neherlands, or example, hal o he Labour
Pary’s supporers in he 2010 elecion were over 50 years old while jus 17 per-
cen were beween he ages o 18 and 34. In Sweden, every successive generaion
has had a smaller proporion o Social Democraic supporers, inexorably driving
he average age o pary supporers upward. Beting on older voers o keep social
democras poliically viable seems like a risky sraegy bu i is, in eec, where
many social democraic paries are currenly placing heir bes.
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The opportunity state and the
future of progressive politics
Te need or a new progressive coaliion is hereore clear and compelling. Te
old one is simply no longer viable and any atemp o resusciae i would be a
proound error. Bu here is no doub ha orging his new coaliion is a dauning
challenge.
Dauning as i may be, i also presens an opporuniy or radiional social demo-
craic and labor paries o regain heir hegemonic role. In he uure hese radi-
ional hegemonic paries may indeed need o build poliical coaliions wih hegreens, liberals, and ohers, bu labor and social democraic paries mus sill aspire
o be naional paries o renewal and reorm, no paries capured by specic iner-
ess wihin socieies. I hey are able o dene a new poliical agenda, one ha is
capable o combining he socioeconomic concerns o he more radiional groups
wihin he laen progressive coaliion wih he posmaerial values driven ideniy
o aspiran, younger, and upper-middle-class proessional voers, hey will remain
he driving orce—or guiding ligh—o progressive poliics or years o come.
Te cenral enes o such an agenda, we believe, should be buil around he idea
o an “opporuniy sae.”
Te primary achievemen o poswar social democracy (and o a lesser exen
American liberalism) was he creaion o he mixed economy and a srong welare
sae o help harness he bes aspecs o capialism and proec people rom he
wors aspecs. Tis model varied across naions, o course, bu all employed
similar heoreical and pracical models—Keynesian demand managemen, he
provision o public goods, social securiy measures, and cooperaive labor and
managemen srucures. Te combinaion o susained economic growh, ull-
employmen policies, indusrial planning, and social provisions generaed unprec-edened prosperiy, peace, and rising living sandards or millions o people.
Poliically, he “people’s pary ” sraegies o social democraic and labor paries
creaed broad and susained coaliions ha enabled governmens o pursue a
balanced approach o he sae and he economy. Tis legacy o expanded ree-
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16 Center or American Progress | From Welare State to Opportunity State
dom, equaliy, and social solidariy remains vial, and is sorely needed o sem
oday’s conservaive and neoliberal ide. Bu he radiional welare-sae model
o governance canno be our only progressive vision or sociey (or or voers).
Wihou repeaing he exhausive reamen his subjec has received over he
years, i is commonplace o acknowledge ha oo much has changed in erms o
economic organizaion or us o rely on older visions o democracy and he polii-cal economy.
Wha does his mean?
Firs, i is clear o us—and perhaps o oher auhors in his series—ha he noion
o solidariy ha suppored he grea 20h cenury social democraic riumphs
is dying. In a ime o rapid economic change, voers are becoming increasingly
decenralized, individualisic, and more amily and communiy ocused in heir
worldviews. Choice reins in all aspecs o lie, and radiional social roos are
deerioraing or being replaced by new models o social ineracion, paricularly among younger people. As much as we migh gh agains he rend, voers
are no becoming more commited o shared naional goals, common poliical
plaorms, or o building sronger European or global ideniies. Bonds o work,
religion, and class mater ar less o people hese days, and as we are seeing wih
he erce immigraion batles across our naions, he humaniarian and mulicul-
ural impulse underlying our progressivism is no easily exended o ousiders.
Tese developmens can be addressed bu i will require a radically dieren
noion o solidariy—one ha helps people undersand he collecive economic
need or breaking down barriers o individual achievemen and he moral basis
or helping ohers reach heir highes poenial academically, proessionally, and
culurally. Tis is a srong orm o solidariy, bu one ha recognizes he impor-
ance o individual and localized lives. I is deeply progressive in is commimen
o human digniy and equaliy, bu i is less class bound and more open o people
o dieren walks o lie.
And despie shor-erm challenges on issues such as immigraion, his new vision
o solidariy mus embrace raher han rejec he progressive commimen o
diversiy and individual reedom ha are mainsays o he worldview o youngergeneraions. Solidariy, as reconceived or a new era, will ocus more on muual
responsibiliy and he need o oser individual achievemen and communiy
sabiliy in an era o scarce resources and a rapidly shiing global economy.
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Second, i seems clear o us ha our economic growh model and exising social
proecions are inadequae or addressing he barriers o social mobiliy ha exis
wih increased global compeiion or jobs and rising economic power in oher
pars o he globe. As imporan as exising policies are or our working class base,
i is no hard o see how universiy sudens migh scrach heir heads wondering
wha rade unions acually do and how hey migh use a manuacuring rerainingprogram. Tese sudens are probably more worried abou rising ees and cumber-
some labor marke proecions ha make i hard or hem o ge jobs. So hey ake
a look a he liberals.
Or perhaps hese young sudens are ocused on susainabiliy and renewable energy
producion and like wha he greens have o say. Maybe hey see inefcien civil
service procedures and bureaucraic wase and wonder why he sae can’ be more
efcien as cener-righ paries argue. Meanwhile, hard-pressed workers are hearing
daily rom le-wing orces abou he ailures o neoliberal policies and social demo-
craic mismanagemen o he economy in he lead up o he nancial crisis.
I’s no wonder he social democraic and labor share o he voe is collapsing
across our naions. radiional working-class suppor is rapidly shrinking, and
rising progressive consiuencies do no see social democraic and labor paries
as visionary or disincive in heir approach. Tey oen see saus quo leaders,
oudaed pary srucures, and muddled policy ideas. Tereore, he ideniy, insi-
uional oureach, and agenda o our paries does no wih how younger, more
mobile, and more diverse voers see heir world.
Progressive orces will always ocus on he mixed economy, social proecions,
and ull employmen policies. Bu we mus do more o show he voers o our new
coaliion how progressive sae acion can enhance heir individual lie opporu-
niies and help hem build a solid middle-class lie hrough lielong educaional
opporuniies, high-wage, high-skilled economies, he ransormaion o inra-
srucure and ciies, clean energy, a more modern ax and labor marke sysem,
new inernaional leadership, and he creaion o a global middle class and new
expor markes. In shor, we need a vision o an opporuniy sae ha combines
radiional securiy measures wih new eors o suppor greaer social mobiliy
and reduce social inequaliy.
Tis does no mean discarding social democraic principles. Far rom i. o help
make his opporuniy ramework viable, core social democraic argumens will
sill be necessary o make he case or long-erm indusrial policy and o atack
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18 Center or American Progress | From Welare State to Opportunity State
emerging laissez-aire governance. A new era o opporuniy will require a much
sronger sae role in making our economies more compeiive wih oher naions
hrough long-erm invesmens in educaion, energy inrasrucure and ranspor-
aion, and he creaion o high-wage jobs. Individuals alone canno conend wih
he orces shaping he global economy; and social democras, among he array o
progressive paries, are paricularly well placed o argue or he imporance o seri-ous public invesmen and sraegic planning.
Tis will also require susained inellecual and policy atacks on he underpin-
nings o conservaive economics—he efcien-markes hypohesis, deregulaion,
privaizaion, and supply-side ax policy—ha conribue so much o insabiliy
and inequaliy in he world economy oday.
Alhough his synhesis paper is no designed o esh ou in ull deail all o he
policy and poliical conours o he opporuniy-sae idea, we did wan o oer
somehing o he larger Global Progress working groups or discussion and cri-ique. Jus o be clear, our suggesed ocus o he opporuniy sae is no designed
o replace radiional social democraic policies or o push neoliberal heory,
privaizaion, and deregulaion. We are advocaing a srong heory o he sae
wih a new dimension.
I is our belie ha we should show voers how he sae can boh proec people
rom he ailures o markes (he welare sae) and provide a plaorm and se
o ools or people o make he mos o marke opporuniies and o help solve
collecive problems (he opporuniy sae). Given he curren arrangemen o
demographic, economic, and poliical orces, we believe a srong ocus on he
opporuniy sae side o he social democraic equaion migh help o address
some o he elecoral and governing difculies ha coninue o plague he broad
cener-le.
We look orward o discussing his and oher ideas wih you in Madrid.
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Endnotes
1 Matt Browne, John Halpin, and Ruy Teixeira, “The European Paradox”(Washington: Center or American Progress Action Fund, 2009).
2 Unless otherwise noted, data and trends cited in the New ProgressiveCoalition section are taken rom the appropriate country paper in theDemographic Change and Progressive Political Strategy project.
3 Angus Maddison, Contours of the World Economy, 1-2030 AD: Essays inMacroeconomic History (Oxord: Oxord University Press, 2007), table2.5.
4 Authors’ analysis o data in Gerassimos Maschonas, “Lower Classes orMiddle Classes?: Socialism and its Changing Constituencies in Great
Britain, Sweden and Denmark”, presentation to Council or EuropeanStudies, March 5, 2008; and Anthony Painter, “The New ProgressiveImperative in Britain” (Washington: Center or American Progress,2011, orthcoming).
5 Maschonas, “Lower Classes or Middle Classes?”
6 Authors’ analysis o data rom the 2006 European Social Survey. Dataare population-weighted to take into account the varying sizes o thedierent countries. “College educated” indicated frst or second levelo tertiary education.
7 Never married and never in civil partnership.
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About the authors
Matt Browne is a Senior Fellow a American Progress ocusing on he uure o
progressive poliics, poliical sraegy, and srenghening policy links and poliical
analysis among progressives in he Americas, Europe, and beyond. He is Direcor
o he Global Progress Program a American Progress, and ormer Direcor o he Policy Nework. Among his publicaions, Browne co-edied (wih Parick
Diamond) Rehinking Social Democracy (Poliico 2004).
John Halpin is a Senior Fellow a American Progress ocusing on poliical heory,
communicaions, and public opinion analysis. He is he Co-direcor and creaor o
he Progressive Sudies Program a CAP, an inerdisciplinary projec researching
he inellecual hisory, oundaional principles, and public undersanding o pro-
gressivism. Halpin is he co-auhor wih John Podesa o Te Power of Progress: How
America’s Progressives Can (Once Again) Save Our Economy, Our Climae, and Our
Counry, a 2008 book abou he hisory and uure o he progressive movemen.
Ruy Teixeira is a Senior Fellow a boh Te Cenury Foundaion and American
Progress. He is he auhor or co-auhor o six books, including Red, Blue and
Purple America: Te Fuure of Elecion Demographics; Te Emerging Democraic
Majoriy; America’s Forgoten Majoriy: Why he Whie Working Class Sill Maters;
and Te Disappearing American Voer , as well as hundreds o aricles, boh schol-
arly and popular. He also wries he Public Opinion Snapsho, a weekly column
eaured on he CAP and CF websies.
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The Center for American Progress is a nonpartisan research and educational institute
dedicated to promoting a strong, just and free America that ensures opportunity
for all. We believe that Americans are bound together by a common commitment to
these values and we aspire to ensure that our national policies reflect these values.
We work to find progressive and pragmatic solutions to significant domestic and
international problems and develop policy proposals that foster a government that
is “of the people, by the people, and for the people.”