frost & sullivan solar & wind markets - subsidy driven demand
TRANSCRIPT
SOLAR AND WIND MARKETS: SUBSIDY DRIVEN
DEMAND
“We Accelerate Growth”
May, 2011
Chris de LavigneGlobal Vice President, Consulting
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Focus points
– Why Solar and Wind?
– Solar and Wind Power Market Drivers and Restraints
– Solar Market Trends and Forecasts
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– Wind Market Trends and Forecasts
– Market Outlook to 2020
Why solar and wind?
� Global solar and wind power markets - tremendous growth since 2006
� Energy security and independence have helped drive Govt. incentives
� Renewable energy showed robust growth through GFC and in 2010
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� Grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power fastest growing power
generation technology
� Solar PV and wind industries also had high CapEx in new manufacturing
plants/equipment in 2010
Why solar and wind?
50
60
Compound Annual Growth Rate of Revenues for the Global Market, by Technology (2010 - 2016)
�Installed capacity below traditional techs but growth significantly higher
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0
10
20
30
40
Wind Solar PV Solar CSP Gas Turbines Steam Turbines
CA
GR
%
Technology
Key solar and wind demand drivers
Technological Improvements and Advances in
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Government Incentives
Advances in Efficiencies
Increasing Oil Imports and Volatility of Oil Prices
Key solar and wind demand restraints
Large Infrastructure Investment
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Changes in policies & incentives
Global Economic Downturn
Overview of solar power market
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Massive increase in installed capacity from 2009-2010
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Total Solar Power Market: Cumulative Total Installed Capacity(World), 2009 & 2010
� Global solar market cumulative in 2009 = ~21,000 MW.
� Global solar market cumulative in
Growth
Rate
72%
Growth
Rate
72%
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
2009 2010
Cumulative Installed Capacity
� Global solar market cumulative in 2010 = ~36,500 MW.
� Growth Rate 2009 – 2010: ~72%
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
World market hotspots – installed and 2010 installments
1,040 MW
3,504 MWInstalled
890 MWInstalled
600 MW
in 2010
2,580 MWInstalled
872 MWInstalled
600 MW
in 2010
15,900 MWInstalled
7,308 MW
in 2010
2,965 MW
1,860 MW
in 2010
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410 MWInstalled
224 MW
in 2010
1,040 MW
in 2010
360 MWInstalled
260 MW
in 2010
950 MW
in 2010
2,965 MWInstalled
Installed to date
Installed in
2010
Demand driver policies – select key countries
Germany20 years guaranteed FiT; No limits.
FiT (2010) – EUR 0.2875-.3957/kwh
Policy being reviewed. Reduction in FiT on 1st July 2011 could amount to between 3 and 15%
FranceRooftop/Ground-mounted systems: EUR 0.31-
0.38/kWh; 20 years
Simplified BIPV: EUR 0.37/kWh; 20 years
BIPV:EUR 0.58/kWh; 20 years
Simplified BIPV category effective in June 2010.
ChinaGolden Sun Program
Provincial government
USCalifornia Solar Initiative
Investment Tax Credit
Renewable Portfolio
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Provincial government
initiatives
ItalyBIPV: EUR 0.43-0.48/kWh
BAPV: EUR 0.39-0.41/kWh
Non Integrated: EUR 0.35-0.39/kWh 20
years
Policy revised. By Dec 2011, tariffs will be 22-31% lower than current rates. In 2012, further cut of 23-44% broken up in 1H and 2H.
SpainGround-mounted: EUR 0.32/kWh; Rooftop:
EUR 0.32-0.34/kWh (25 yrs)
Installation Cap: 502 MW in 2010; 488 MW in 2011Reduction in FiT - By 45% for Ground-mounted, 25% for large roof-mounted and 5% for small residential rooftop
Renewable Portfolio
Standards
Market expected to continue to grow rapidly to 2016
� Concentrating solar power (CSP) cumulative installed capacity in the world in 2009 = 817MW.
� Most is installed in North America.
�CAGR 2009 – 2016: 49.6%
Total Solar Power Market: CSP Cumulative Installed Capacity Forecasts (World), 2009 & 2016
CAGR
49.6%
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Total Solar Power Market: PV Cumulative Total Installed Capacity Forecasts(World), 2009 & 2016
� Global photovoltaic (PV) market cumulative installed capacity in 2009 = 20,090MW.
� Most is installed in Europe (Germany).
� CAGR 2009 – 2016: 33.5%
CAGR
33.5%
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Installed capacity by region
Total Solar Power Market: CSP Cumulative Installed Capacity by Region (World), 2009
Total Solar Power Market: PV Cumulative Total Installed Capacity by Region (World), 2009
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• CSP Market: Spain and the U.S. accounted for 38% and 62%
• PV Market: dominated by Germany, with 36% of the total installed capacity (7,308MW) in
2009.
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
West dominant in CSP production, China in PV
CSP Solar Power Market: Market Share of Major Participants Based on Installations (World), 2009
PV Solar Power Market: Market Share of Major Participants Based on Revenues (World), 2009
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Whilst incentives continue, cost reduction will be key
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
ASP
($/W
)
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0.0
0.5
1.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Module ASP ($/W) Wafer ($/W) Cells ($/W)
� PV module prices decreased 30-40 % in 2009, 2010 quite stable
� More silicon manufacturing coming on line, expected lower prices for long-term.Oversupply in 2012?
� Growing solar efficiency reduces time of ROI
Overview of wind power market
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Wind power market – installed capacity forecast
• CAGR 2005-2009: 40%
• Installed Capacity in 2009:
159,221 MW
• Europe: 48% (76 GW) of the
total installed capacity in
Wind Power Market: Total Installed Capacity Forecasts (World), 2009-2016
CAGR
22.1%
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total installed capacity in
2009.
• Rest-of-world: Installed cap
CAGR 36% from 2009 to
2016.
• Total Market CAGR 2009 –
2010: 22%
Wind Power Market: Total Installed Capacity by Region (World), 2009
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Market shares
Wind Power Market: Market Share of Major Participants Based on Installations (World), 2008
• GE Energy
• Vestas
• Siemens
North
• Vestas
• Gamesa
• Enercon
Europe
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North America
Europe
• Suzlon
• Vestas
• Sinovel
APAC
• WobbenEnercon
• Vestas
• Gamesa
ROW
Long Term Renewable Energy Trends
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A bright but turbulent future
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For additional Information:
Donna Jeremiah
Corporate Communications
Director
(603) 6204 5832
Carrie Low
Corporate Communications
Executive
(603) 6204 5910
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Jessie Loh
Corporate Communications
Manager
(65) 6890 0942