futron corporation 7315 wisconsin avenue, suite 900w bethesda, maryland 20814 phone 301-913-9372 fax...
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Futron Corporation • 7315 Wisconsin Avenue, Suite 900W • Bethesda, Maryland 20814Phone 301-913-9372 • Fax 301-913-9475 • www.futron.com ISO 9001 Registered
Better Decisions…Better Future
Established and Emerging Established and Emerging Markets for Commercial Space Markets for Commercial Space
TransportationTransportation
Jeff Foust
2011 August 16
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Better Decisions…Better FutureISO 9001 Registered
OverviewOverview
• Overview and Disclaimer
• Review of Established Markets for CST
• Review of Emerging Markets for CST
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About FutronAbout Futron
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• Futron is a premier provider of decision management solutions (DMS)
• We are a decision management support, technology consulting, and engineering firm specializing in the space and satellite sectors
• In business since 1986, Futron employs a staff of approximately 100 professionals in three main facilities
• Futron’s supports government, military, and commercial industry leaders in making critical and complex decisions
Space & Telecommunications
RiskManagement
Bethesda, MD
Engineering & Risk Assessment
Bethesda and Hampton, VA Houston, TX
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DisclaimerDisclaimer
• “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” - Niels Bohr and/or Yogi Berra
• Forecasts are our predictions of how demand will evolve in the future based on best available information, assumptions, and models
• Subject to change based on developments either unforeseen or unforeseeable
• Example: NGSO market forecasts in late 1990s:
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Why Forecast?Why Forecast?
• Vehicle developers and service providers How much demand is there? Enough to close a business model?
• Investors Are these companies right when they there’s this much demand?
• Regulators Need to know potential demand for these services to plan
according for licensing and related activities
• Enthusiasts/Advocates Demonstrates demand to others, including for lobbying
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Two Classes of CST MarketsTwo Classes of CST Markets
• Established Markets Already generating demand for commercial launches Projected to continue for at least near-term future Examples:
• GSO communications satellites• NGSO communications satellites• Remote sensing satellites• Miscellaneous
• Emerging Markets Not yet generating (significant) demand for commercial launches However, expected to emerge in the near-term future Examples:
• Commercial cargo transportation (to ISS or elsewhere)• Commercial crew transportation (to ISS)• Orbital space tourism• Sovereign clients• Scientific research• Suborbital space tourism• Suborbital research/other applications
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GSO Communications SatellitesGSO Communications Satellites
• Biggest, most mature CST market
• Average ~15 launches/year last decade
• 2011 COMSTAC forecast 20.5 satellites/year, 15.6 launches/year
• Flat market for foreseeable future
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NGSO Communications SatellitesNGSO Communications Satellites
• Replenishment/replacement of Globalstar, Iridium, and ORBCOMM satellite constellations
• Peaks of demand during fleet replacement, with long lulls
• No evidence of additional major systems in development
• FAA forecast:
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Commercial Remote Sensing SatellitesCommercial Remote Sensing Satellites
• Low Earth orbit satellites by DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, others
• Low volume of launch activity, primarily for fleet replacement or augmentation
• FAA forecast:
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Miscellaneous SatellitesMiscellaneous Satellites
• “Grab bag” of primarily NGSO satellites, including satellites by governments who procure launch services commercially
• Traditionally low but steady demand, with occasional surges of activity
• FAA forecast (for “science and engineering”):
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Commercial CargoCommercial Cargo
• NASA has Commercial Resupply Services contracts with Orbital Sciences and SpaceX for ISS cargo missions
• While for a government customer, considered commercial launches (FAA licensed)
• Potential demand from other, commercial customers (e.g., Bigelow), if crew transportation markets develop
• FAA forecast:
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Commercial Crew to ISSCommercial Crew to ISS
• NASA’s Commercial Crew Development (CCDev) program seeking to develop vehicles for crew transportation to ISS Also available for use for other markets
• Estimated ~2 launches/year (depending on vehicle size, crew size, and crew rotation rates)
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Orbital Space TourismOrbital Space Tourism
• Orbital space tourism has existed since 2001, but has not generated CST demand Relied to date on spare seats on non-commercial Soyuz taxi flights
• CCDev vehicles, plus dedicated Soyuz flights, may change this by mid-decade
• 2011 NASA Commercial Market Assessment (CMA): 8–143 spaceflight participants over next 10 years
• Futron 2002 demand forecast:
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Sovereign ClientsSovereign Clients
• Long history of US and USSR/Russia flying astronauts from other nations
• Demand likely to continue and may be best served by commercial vehicles, especially to non-ISS destinations
• NASA CMA estimate: between 36 and 216 people over next 10 years (plus 6,180–28,430 lbs of cargo)
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Scientific ResearchScientific Research
• Commercial research on ISS or other facilities Above and beyond NASA’s needs to support ISS Identified as a major market for companies like Bigelow
Aerospace
• NASA CMA demand: up to 13,400 lbs of cargo (no crew) over next 10 years
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Suborbital Space TourismSuborbital Space Tourism
• An area of significant interest, but developing more slowly than previously anticipated.
• Futron 2006 demand forecast:
• Astrium/IPSOS 2011 forecast: 600-750 participants in the first year of service 14,800-21,700 participants per year in year 8
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Suborbital Research/Other ApplicationsSuborbital Research/Other Applications
• Growing interest in using suborbital platforms for a variety of scientific research or tech demonstrations
• No quantification of demand here yet (although there have been purchases of flights for research purposes by NASA and other entities), but qualitatively there is interest, provided sufficient funding
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Other MarketsOther Markets
• Entertainment
• Google Lunar X PRIZE
• Propellant Depots
• ???
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ConclusionsConclusions
• Established markets for CST are steady, but slow/no growth GSO communications is the bedrock of the industry Modest NGSO demand
• Emerging markets for CST show potential for considerable growth, but not yet realized Particularly suborbital/orbital space tourism Whether and how these markets materialize will determine the
growth of CST in the next decade
• Forecasts are a measure of what could happen based on the current state of knowledge, not what will happen
• They can be used as a guide to the future (and to help guide that future) when their limitations are appreciated
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