Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

Accelerate Your Future

FutureTrendsImpactonNordea

StrategicOpportuni6es60secondpitches

-Asifyouaretheboardofthebankwithanexternaladvisor-

ALLBIGTRENDSARERELATED

WhatwillNordea(andyourcompe6tors)looklikein2020?

to waste on things you do not believe in

LifeistooShort

Whocaresaboutthenewstrategy?

teamsandcustomersneedtofeelitmaOers

Whyshouldtheygrow?

AllleadershipcomesfromVISIONofabeOerfuture

What customers really want

Mostdebatesaboutfuturestrategy

areabout6mingandfocus

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Benchmarking is toxic to risk management

LawsuitswillbefarlargerthanFines

Typetoentertext

Strategies often overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting

Panama

Agility requires

Simplicity

Yet many trends changing more

slowly than people think

Cash growing - bank branches continue -

music, fashions, food - homes look the same,

where are all the robots?

WGP2005-2014(%,constantprices)

2% inflation target likely to be discarded

VietnamGDP1985-2011

$3.4trillion

$3.4trillionownedbyChinesesovereignwealthfund

$2.4trillion

Reserves

ONEWORDwilldrivethe

future

The future is aboutEMOTION

44

Greatcustomerexperiences

MysteryShopping

!?!

Pop-uppagesPaidlis6ngsSMSadvertsYouTubeAds

AutoplayVideosFillformtogainaccess

Digital Control

85% world living in emerging markets

in 10 years

1% own 50%

1 billion will migrate in 30 years

Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child

!58

Science,technologyengineering,maths

MostSTEMgraduatesinemergingmarkets

ChinaandIndiadominate

STEMdegreesincludingpost-graduate/PhDs

Can we stop ageing ?

PigsteethgrowninsideratsMicegrownewteethfromnervecells/gum

Grow New Teeth

Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells

Slowornoageinginanimals->pensions Japanwomengain15minutesoflifeexpectancyeveryhour

Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales

No signs of getting old

TRIBES

TEAMS

GROUPS2.3 million customer meetings a year

with over 10 million customers

1trillionpagesamonth

Tribalismisoneofthemainreasonswhysomanymergersandacquisi6onsfailto

delivervalue

People love Cities and Offices

Teleworking Only 2.5% of US workers are exclusively

home-based

!77

Would recommend you to a friend ?

90% all global data

generated in last 2 years

BigDataandLiOleData

Predicting Fraud

Little Data often

matters most

missing you

!86

AcrossEU,10grocerscapture50%ofsales

World too small for more than:

2 airline manufacturers3 mobile operating systems

10 large pharma5 large auto companies

Scale - Innovation Speed

Is the bank large enough for the future ? Eat or be Eaten or more Strategic Mergers

Risks from

post-merger paralysis

Almost all bank IT

spend is on legacy, compliance, security

impossible to keep pace with customers

Why old outsourcing story in India nearly over

NearshoringBoom

Most online sales will be

MOBILE

Loca6onMarke6ng

isnextBIG

Over4000road

Goldstandard:

103

Kenya-17mcustomers $9bnpa->33%GDP Tanzania9mpeople 35na6onlinksviaHomeSendHub

105

Payments to home by migrants

are driving Innovation

Free mobile devicescalls / web / TV / games / payHigher income model

201020132015

TelcoBanks

Time at bank teller cut from 4 to 1 minute

Internet of Things

90%MicrosolR&D

CLOUD

112

InternetofThings-BigData-Cloud180bnspamemailsaday

600mnewviruses,malware,trojansayear>220mpeoplesdetailslostinsingleaOack70%largecorpora6onshavebeenhacked

100,000aOacksanhouronUSNavyParalysisofEstoniagovernmentin2007

WorriesaboutUS,Russia,Chinapenetra6on

Regulatory Swings

eg Capital Adequacy / ROI

Public pressure v Reality

$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism

Shale gas 33% US supplies

3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil

produced than Saudi by 2020

200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years

120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total power useQUEBECfromARIZONAMOSCOWfromSAHARA

Solarcellgenera6onparity

SolarCells$/waO1990-2015

subsidies

PriceParity

120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert

40% EU power = wind by 2050 Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?

GermanyPowerSurplus

30 million acres lost

EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food

25% of 2010 US grain fuel

AllleadershipcomesfromVISIONofabeOerfuture

Tdo things you believe in sell things you believe in

Beyond Compliance

Truth about Retail FundsNext miss-selling scandal? Most actively managed funds fail to beat tracker funds,

when all charges deducted Most fund managers I have surveyed (total > $1 trillion

under management) are reluctant to invest own money in own retail funds unless they are required to, and reluctant to recommend own funds to family / friends

50% of us sell funds of funds but only 5% of us invest in them

Ethical questions since whole purpose of active management is to protect wealth, not erode it (as is most likely outcome under current business models)

LessonfromNon-ProfitFounda6ons

Connectwithallthepassionspeoplehaveandtheywillfollowyoutotheendsoftheearth,

promotewhatyoudowithpride,andmayevenbewillingtoworkfor

youfornexttonothing

BraindumpWhatstruckyoumost?Whathasbeenlelout?

HeatMap-yourviewofthefutureOneBigThing?

Areaforinnova6on/ac6on?

EU20,000Challenge4wordphraseisbasis

ofallmarke6ng,mo6va6on,change

managementandleadership

Build a Better World individual family community world

RESOURCES

>500 videos of Keynotes http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon

Global Trends Website: http://www.globalchange.com

http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixonhttp://www.globalchange.com

LowHangingFruit

RetailcustomerexperienceBusinesscustomerexperience

PrivatebankingWholesalebanking

StreamlineinternalprocessesHR/people

Mergers/bigjointventures