future of planned communities - j heid
TRANSCRIPT
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10
the
EVOLUTION of the Planned Community
27 October 2011
Jim Heid, Founder
Urban Green ®
10 Slides
6 7 2 7 Minutes
6 Questions
DISTILLED
2 Futures
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Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Do we still need planned communities? #1
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YES.
“The U.S. is now on track to reach 400 Million residents by mid century – we actually add more people than China from now to 2050.” Robert E Lang
Professor and Director, Brookings Mountain West
University of Nevada, Las Vegas, The Lincy Institute
#1 Do we still need planned communities?
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Planned Community as a Better Alternative
Planned Communities
Ad Hoc Subdivisions
Multiple Housing Options
Yes – 5 minimum; price, life stage and own/ rent options
One builder, changed elevations
Open Space Integrated hierarchy and
lifestyles A park
Community Hardware Third places & daily goods
services Limited
Stewardship
Community Life and environmental
None
Sustainability Integrated , systems approach Checklist approach
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Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Why does right, feel so …. #2 wrong?
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Why does right, feel so … wrong? #2
A Decade of New Home Sales 2001-2010
US Total1 8,580,000
%
Top Ten Planned Communities2 130,386
1.5%
Top Twenty Planned Communities3 187,687
2.2%
All Planned Communities (estimated)4 800,636 9.3%
IT’S NOT JUST A FEELING
1 Source: US Census Bureau 2 Souce: RCLCo Top Selling Master Planned Communities Data, 2001-2010 3 Source: RCLCo Top Selling Master Planned Communities Data, 2001-2007, 2008-2010 extrapolated by UrbanGreen 4 Source: UrbanGreen, extrapolated from RCLCo data by 2001-2010
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Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Infill or greenfield? #3
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© UrbanGreen 2004
70-65% Greenfield
15-20% Suburban densification
10-15% Urban infill
New housing location projection ca 2004
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Population growth1 by metropolitan location 2000-2010
Inner Ring Suburb
(+5.9 M)
Mature Suburb (+3.5 M)
=1,000,000
People
Emerging Suburb (+5.1 M)
Exurb (+1.5 M)
Urban Core (-.3 M)
1 Source: Robert E Lang. Based on 416 counties in the 50 largest metro areas. These contain 53.7% of total U.S. population.
Infill or greenfield? #3 BOTH.
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Place or strategy? #4
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
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• Your context and what you do with it
• How you engage potential partners
• Sustainability gateways
• How you ‘craft’ community
Place or strategy? #4 DEPENDS.
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Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Can community be planned? #5
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….then
Can community be planned? #5 IF WE ADAPT.
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….then going forward…..
Can community be planned? #5 IF WE ADAPT.
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Riverside, Reston and
Rincon Hill
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Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
New
Communities Retrofit
Communities Infill Communities
RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL
YEAR 1869 1988 2005+
CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core
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Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
New
Communities Retrofit
Communities Infill Communities
RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL
YEAR 1869 1988 2005+
CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core
SIZE (ACRES) 1600 460 51
POPULATION 9,000 7,500 10,000
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Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
New
Communities Retrofit
Communities Infill Communities
RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL
YEAR 1869 1988 2005+
CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core
SIZE (ACRES) 1600 460 51
POPULATION 9,000 7,500 10,000
CRAFTING COMMUNITY Create
Village Center Add
Urban Center Leverage
Urban Core
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Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
New
Communities Retrofit
Communities Infill Communities
RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL
YEAR 1869 1988 2005+
CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core
SIZE (ACRES) 1600 460 51
POPULATION 9,000 7,500 10,000
CRAFTING COMMUNITY Create
Village Center Add
Urban Center Leverage
Urban Core
STRUCTURE PRIVATE PRIVATE/Public Public/Private
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Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
New
Communities Retrofit
Communities Infill Communities
RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL
YEAR 1869 1988 2005+
CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core
SIZE (ACRES) 1600 460 51
POPULATION 9,000 7,500 10,000
CRAFTING COMMUNITY Create
Village Center Add
Urban Center Leverage
Urban Core
STRUCTURE Private Private/Public Public/Private
SUSTAINABLE GATEWAY Stormwater Jobs Housing Transportation
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Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
What Does it All Mean? #6
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represent a superior social & environmental alternative to sprawl
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Because Greenfield Planned Communities
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represent a superior social & environmental alternative to sprawl
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Because Greenfield Planned Communities
they should grow as a percentage of greenfield development, as total greenfield development diminishes
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Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Because Retrofit + Infill Planned Communities
represent the best method to regenerate urban areas quickly, and at scale
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Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Because Retrofit + Infill Planned Communities
they provide a renewed purpose for our industry to make a difference.
represent the best method to regenerate urban areas quickly, and at scale
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Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Infill communities Outlook - Good
New communities Outlook - Limited to Good
Retrofit communities Outlook - Very Good
What Does it All Mean?
NEW OPPORTUNITY. #6