master planned communities 2020
DESCRIPTION
10 14 h 315 to 400TRANSCRIPT
Master Planned Communities 2020
Thursday,
October 14
3:15 p.m. – 4:30 p.m.
John Martin, Moderator
Randall Lewis
Perry Reader
Melinda Masson
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US Housing Starts and Recessions: Total Housing Units Started To
tal U
nit
s, (
00
0s)
Recession
Source: US Census Bureau Martin & Associates, LLC.
US Involvement In World War II
ULI FALL 2010
RCLCO FORECAST TO 2020
2
Sources: RCLCO; Census; Moody’s Economy.Com
U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY AGE CATEGORY 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)
Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer
To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand
AGE GROUP
2,223,706
6,521,246
3,701,714
-2,268,604
718,786
1,162,381
-257,079
-3,000,000 -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000
75+
65-74
55-64
45-54
35-44
25-34
15-24
Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010 Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University Martin & Associates
Age Group 2010 Change
2010-2020 % Chg.
from 2010
under 25 6,540,049 -257,079 -3.9%
25-34 19,429,803 1,162,381 6.0%
35-44 21,729,364 718,786 3.3%
45-54 24,599,659 -2,268,604 -9.2%
55-64 21,129,717 3,701,714 17.5%
65-74 13,141,901 6,521,246 49.6%
75+ 11,965,405 2,223,706 18.6%
118,535,898 11,802,150 81.9%
U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY AGE CATEGORY 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)
Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer
To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand
Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010 Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University Martin & Associates
2,223,706
6,521,246
3,701,714
-2,268,604
718,786
1,162,381
-257,079
U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY TYPE 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)
Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer
To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand
HOUSEHOLD TYPE
71,659
117,416
81,968
249,400
1,456,034
547,106
4,278,764
4,999,803
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000
Partnered w/ children
Single Parent w/ other
Partnered w/o child.
Single Parent alone
Other
Married w/ children
Single Person
Married w/o children
Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010 Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University Martin & Associates
U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY TYPE 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)
Household Type 2010
Change
2010-
2020
%
Chg.
from
2010
% of
Total
2020
1. Married w/o children 34,441,134 4,999,803 14.5% 30%
2. Single Person 32,384,585 4,278,764 13.2% 28%
3. Married w/ children 25,272,364 547,106 2.2% 20%
4. Other 12,191,372 1,456,034 11.9% 10%
5. Single Parent alone 6,351,725 249,400 3.9% 5%
6. Partnered w/o child. 3,712,225 81,968 2.2% 3%
7. Single Parent w/ other 2,265,438 117,416 5.2% 2%
8. Partnered w/ children 1,917,055 71,659 3.7% 2%
118,535,898 11,802,150 10.0% 100%
Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer
To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand
71,659
117,416
81,968
249,400
1,456,034
547,106
4,278,764
4,999,803
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000
Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010 Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University Martin & Associates
U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY RACE/ETHNICITY 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)
Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer
To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand
2,191,783
1,744,617
4,469,479
3,396,271
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000
Black
Asian
Hispanic
White
Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010 Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University Martin & Associates
Race/
Ethnicity 2010
Change 2010-2010
% Chg. from 2010
% of Total 2020
% of Chg.
2010-2020
White 83,574,504 3,396,271 4% 67% 29%
Hispanic 13,727,794 4,469,479 33% 14% 38%
Asian/Other
6,768,017 1,744,617 26% 6% 15%
Black 14,465,582 2,191,783 15% 13% 18%
118,535,897 11,802,150 10% 100% 100%
Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer
To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand
U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY RACE/ETHNICITY 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)
2,191,783
1,744,617
4,469,479
3,396,271
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000
Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010 Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University Martin & Associates
Projected Household Growth 11,802,000 72%
Projected Net Removal 3,279,000 20%
Projected Total Vacant Unit Demand 1,361,000 8%
Projected Total Demand for New Units 16,442,000 100%
Annual Average 1,644,000
Components of New Home Demand 2010-2020
Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010 Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University Martin & Associates
COMMUNITY CORNERSTONES
Master Planned Communities 2020 Urban Land Institute – Fall 2010 Meeting October 14, 2010
Perry J. Reader President, Community Development
Celebration’s Original Cornerstones
Place
Vision A new model for Community
Development Conceived as a small
southeastern town with pre-1940s architecture
Maintain high planning and architectural standards
Create icon buildings within the community
Developers Execution
Use of world renowned architects and planners
Created pattern books Extensive modeling prior to
execution Controls on 3rd party
builders/developers
Place
Today
Reuse of icon buildings
Critical mass continues to be a challenge
Icon buildings still significant
Developer still controls master architecture
Future Trends
On-going re-use of buildings
Change of ownership
Re-branding of old businesses
New business models
Challenges to meet new standards
Structured parking
Technology upgrades
Green Building and sustainable Initiatives
Education
Vision
New educational platform
School building to support new learning strategies
Inspire curriculum changes in public education
Comprehensive K -12 walkable school
Developers Execution
Build school upfront as a community amenity
Provided operating resources above local level
Created resource partners from major business for school
Education
Today
Two schools (K-8 and High School)
K-8 true community school
High School regional and traditional
No longer subsidized by 3rd parties
Private educational choices
Life long learning (Stetson University)
Future Trends
Public school community interaction
Ongoing sharing of facilities
Continually striving for achievement
Fund raising
Private educational venues grow
Health
Vision Integrate health care
component into master plan Secure Long-Term
Commitment from Major Stakeholders
Become a world class leader for health care delivery
Developers Execution
Made long term deal with local provider
Gave protected rights to mitigate providers risk
Provided architectural design framework
Promoted health care partners as community stakeholders
Health
Today
Hospital continues to expand
Leader in new technology
Provides community fitness and wellness
Home based health care never worked.
Beacon for success of community
Future Trends
Health care stakeholders continue to invest in leading edge solutions
Land plan makes expansion efficient
Source of pride for community
Non-stakeholder Health services complementary, not destructive
Technology
Vision Community features designed by
panel of experts Leverage Industry leaders to be
Stakeholders for execution Give incentives to businesses for
participation
Developers Execution Created Alliance partnerships with
competitive advantage Subsidized initial capital
improvements for public facilities Coordinated technology
implementation and framework Maintained rights to access Owned & operated backbone
infrastructure
Technology
Today
No organized community-wide effort
Local providers sold to national companies
Initial stakeholders no longer visible
Local needs better solved by www. based solutions
Future Trends
Original infrastructure is now unsuitable for future
Technology will grow as any other suburban location
Homes contain technology investment that does not add value
vs.
Community
Vision
Promote a socially interactive community
Leave a legacy
Inspire the civic framework for the future
Developers Execution
Served as a catalyst to create community organizations
Provided initial start-up funding for many civic & service groups
Proactively brought residents into community governance roles
Supplied educational resources to support community design and controls.
Guided media & public affairs
Community
Today
Stable and active community governance
Numerous civic and social organizations
Foundation providing on-going legacy
Developer’s on-going controls not viewed as impediment for community’s growth
Community activities and events self funded
No developer influenced media hype
Future Trends
Directed by resident population
Importance of project’s legacy aligned between residents and developer.
Developer still has major interest in non-residential land
Case Study: Cornerstones
Cornerstone Vision Today Future
Celebration, Florida
Master Planned Communities 2020
• Buyer confidence at all-time low
• People are experiencing FUD
• “Home” not defined by ownership
Strongest communities offer
• Intact soft-programming
• Safety
• Networking
• “Low cost” social
environments
Flexible legal documents
• Foreclosures
• Self-help programs
• Grant money
• Green conversion
• Social gatherings
“Hope is not a strategy.”
Tony Trella, President, Meranth Company, Inc.
Readiness Planning
• Lifestyle needs and desires
• Local agencies/planners at the table
• World awareness
• Transition of amenities
Readiness Planning
• Niche markets identified
• Social media influencers
• Are you open after 8:00 p.m.?
• Private financing
Success will be
defined again by
out-of-the-box thinking.
Uniquely designed village
amenities that are connected
with other villages
utilizing technology
Smaller “niche” villages
will meet unique
demographic profile needs,
and urban in lifestyle.
Technology will create connection
• Defines the master community
• Creates a sustainable financial model
Community-based care
will define and drive
• Housing configuration
• Design
• Amenity planning
• Soft-programming
Community Engagement
• Community-based care design
• Flexible governance models
• Sustainable, strong soft-programming
• Supporting financial management model
• New model ensures engagement
Green will be Defined
• Environmental management
• Energy management
• Government directives
• Accredited Professionals (AP)
• Renewable energy certificates
Change comes slowly
….then….
happens quickly!