future of voice - next generation service platforms & webrtc conference 2014
TRANSCRIPT
The Future of Voice ServicesBeyond the Phone CallDean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
IIR NextGen Service Platforms & WebRTC Munich, June 2014
[email protected] @disruptivedean
About Disruptive Analysis
London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007 Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, 2012 Full report & updates on WebRTC, Feb/Jun/Oct’13 & Mar’14 Non-Neutral Mobile Broadband Report, June 2014 Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT
Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014
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Telecoms industry in a nutshell
June 2014
Flat/falling telephonyDeclining SMS
Direct/Internet competitionSubstitutes & alternatives
Costly infrastructureRegulatory impact
Data still growingDigital content
VerticalsTelco-OTT
APIs & partnershipsBetter segmentation
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The big problem for the mobile industry…
June 2014
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Voice telephonyVAS / digitalInternet/data accessSMS/MMS
$bn – Global Mobile Operator Revenue
?New/partner services?
Voice/video-based?Verticals?
Source: Disruptive Analysis
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Demand & elasticity for core telecom services
June 2014
Time
Demand
Unconstrained demand
Price-constrained demand
Behaviour changes, alternatives emerge: peak
theoretical demand
Price-elasticity takes time to catch up
Peak Telephony / Messaging
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SMS volumes & revenues falling off a cliff
June 2014
Source; BNetzA
Growing A2P volumes isn’t going to help much
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RCS/joyn isn’t going to rescue messaging either
June 2014
Attribution (Creative Commons): https://www.flickr.com/photos/dhollister/2596483147
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Net/Not neutrality won’t stop data flattening too
June 2014
Data connectivity will soon saturate in developed markets
Source: Disruptive Analysis Non-Neutral MBB Report
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The bad news: we’re past “peak telephony”
June 2014
Total German telephony minutes fell 1.5% in 2013Mobile minutes grew just 1% (Source: BNetzA)
More supply, flat/lower demand = Price & value erosion
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2 problems: competition & substitution
June 2014
Price, functionality, integration, coolness etc –
but still a voice app
More effective ways to perform tasks than a phone
call or voice interaction
Old distant voice [Tele-phone]
>100 years ago
Pretty good for the 19th century...
But apart from mobility, not much has changed
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The question telco execs can never answer
June 2014
Why do people make phone calls, or use other voice
capabilities, anyway?
And can we encourage them to do it more?
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Two charts you’ll never see…
Calls by purpose
GossipMeeting upFlirtingB2C Cust SvcB2B internalSpamShowing offWorkWasting time
June 2014
Must have
Nice to have
Meh. I want free
I'll call back
Importance of QoS, % calls
Diagrams are illustrative, not actual data
Telecom industry doesn’t understand demand for its core productMakes it impossible to defend vs. competition & substitution
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For some users, Quality = “cuteness” not QoS
June 2014
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Voice: From Telephony to “Rich Voice” & VAS Basic standalone telephony “voice transport”
Sustained demand for basic “calls” although volume & value will fall Success needs feature, quality, convenience etc
New forms of standalone communication eg ephemeral Unlikely to be standards-based or interoperable
Contextual voice in apps, websites, processes APIs, plug-ins, mashups etc Some can use telephony as a “raw ingredient”, but not all
Voice processing, analytics etc. on top of transport Recording, translation, sentiment, concierge, agents etc
Also non-voice audio, video, other realtime comms
June 2014
All need understanding of “purpose” and platforms
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Standards & interoperability aren’t everything
June 2014
Standard & interoperable
Silo or proprietary
Transport(calls)
Value-adds (conferencing, 1-800 etc)
Transport
Value-adds (Cloud, context, analytics etc)
Much (not all) future voice value derived from silos or proprietary implementations
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Future 4G telephony standards & approaches
June 2014
GSM / SS7
LTE
CSFB
VoLTE
NGN-VoIP
Wholesale VoIP
BYOV
8 out of 290 networksHuge complexity
Only ToLTE anywayBusiness case?
Good enough
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Hypervoice
June 2014
Voice astwo-way
audio
Voice as information
AUDIO DATA ONLY FULL CONTEXTUAL DATA
TRANSMISSION STORAGE & PROCESSING
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Telco-OTT voice/messaging applications
June 2014
+ also TelcoOTT content, cloud, advanced comms, TV, developer platforms…
Orange Libon Swisscom iO NTT 050 plus Comcast Xfinity Connect
China Mobile JegoTelefonica Tuenti (WebRTC) Rogers One-Number
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The vision: voice & video comms everywhere
June 2014
Servicee.g. SMS, Telephony Product
e.g. Viber, Uberconference
Featuree.g. In-game chat
Function
Voice/video moving from service to function
Cloud Voice Platforms & APIs
WebRTC on >4bn devices by 2016
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update April 2014
Lack of explicit MS & Apple
browser support less important
than some believe
Lead WebRTC use-cases
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC report update April 2014
Customer service & developer platforms
Consumer web apps & enterprise UC
Live & commercial
Verticals, CDNs, full conferencing
Pilots / pre-commercial
Trials & demos
Telco IMS, entertainment,
M2M
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For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst
April 2014
Now
With WebRTCBigger opportunities
Worse threatsFaster speed
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Comms ubiquity is dead. And that’s a good thing.
June 2014
Why do I want to do it?: Management by rolling about.
What do I want to do?“Make a video call”
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www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
Stay for the WebRTC workshop, Tuesday
6.30pm