Future Research Future Research AgendaAgenda

Charles HirschmanCharles Hirschman

University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington

Back to the BasicsBack to the Basics What is the research question?What is the research question?

• Dept. variable, hypothesisDept. variable, hypothesis

Empirical description:Empirical description:• Magnitude, trends, patternMagnitude, trends, pattern

Model: Search for explanationModel: Search for explanation• Natural history: origins and developmentNatural history: origins and development• Prevalence, intensityPrevalence, intensity

Implications for interventionsImplications for interventions

Research QuestionsResearch Questions

1.1. Define and describe child migrationDefine and describe child migration• Incidence, prevalence, circular, originIncidence, prevalence, circular, origin

2.2. What are consequences of migration What are consequences of migration for children?for children?

• Depends on type of migration: tied, solo, Depends on type of migration: tied, solo, left behindleft behind

• What the counterfactual?What the counterfactual? Relative to what comparison group Relative to what comparison group

Migration Status of: Destinations of Children

Family Child MDC Other LDC Home LDC

Migrant Migrant Family Migration

Migrant NonMigrant Left Behind

NonMigrant Migrant Child Migration

NonMigrant NonMigrant Stay at Home

Additional QuestionsAdditional Questions

3. Social Mobility of Children (by 3. Social Mobility of Children (by immigrant generation) in destination immigrant generation) in destination areaarea

4a. Effects of child migration on non-4a. Effects of child migration on non-migrants in sending areamigrants in sending area

4b. Effects of child migration on non-4b. Effects of child migration on non-migrants in destination areamigrants in destination area

Measurement of Dept Variable(s)Measurement of Dept Variable(s)

Absolute numberAbsolute number• experience event in a periodexperience event in a period• Ever (cumulative) experience eventEver (cumulative) experience event

Return and repeat migrationReturn and repeat migration

Ratio: (relative to a reference Ratio: (relative to a reference population)population)• In destination areaIn destination area

Total pop or non-migrantsTotal pop or non-migrants

• In origin area(s)In origin area(s) Total pop or non-migrantsTotal pop or non-migrants

More on MeasurementMore on Measurement

Rate: defined as population experience Rate: defined as population experience event in a period relative to population event in a period relative to population (mid-year) exposed to risk of event(mid-year) exposed to risk of event

Examples from Massey:Examples from Massey:• Annual probability of first time migration Annual probability of first time migration

of never migrants in originof never migrants in origin• Annual probability of return migration of Annual probability of return migration of

ever migration in destinationever migration in destination• Annual probability of repeat migration of Annual probability of repeat migration of

returned migrantsreturned migrants

Preliminary Model of Consequences Preliminary Model of Consequences of Migration on Childrenof Migration on Children

UnderlyingUnderlying

ConditionsConditions

MigrationMigration

Family/Family/

CommunityCommunity

Child Child Well BeingWell Being

Child Well BeingChild Well Being

Define Universe by risk of stage of Define Universe by risk of stage of development (0-5, 6-12, 13-17)development (0-5, 6-12, 13-17)

Outcomes of Interest:Outcomes of Interest:• Health: status, risky behaviors, Health: status, risky behaviors,

preventive contacts or treatmentpreventive contacts or treatment• Education: enrollment, attainment, Education: enrollment, attainment,

mastery mastery

Family/Community Proximate Family/Community Proximate Variables Influencing Child Variables Influencing Child

Well-BeingWell-Being

Prior to migration & change following Prior to migration & change following migration:migration:• Family Economic StatusFamily Economic Status• Family StructureFamily Structure• Community Resources (clinics, schools)Community Resources (clinics, schools)

Migration PatternsMigration Patterns

Migration of unattached adultsMigration of unattached adults Solo migration of parentsSolo migration of parents Family migrationFamily migration Solo migration of childrenSolo migration of children

• To join parentsTo join parents• To join relativesTo join relatives• For schoolingFor schooling• Into bondageInto bondage

Underlying ConditionsUnderlying Conditions

Poverty: absolute or relativePoverty: absolute or relative Population density relative to resourcesPopulation density relative to resources Spatial inequalitySpatial inequality Developmental change Developmental change (Commercial (Commercial

agriculture, wage labor, ideational changes)agriculture, wage labor, ideational changes) Labor RecruitmentLabor Recruitment Family/friends in destination areasFamily/friends in destination areas Immigration policiesImmigration policies

Some speculative thoughtsSome speculative thoughts

Family economic status will be key link Family economic status will be key link to child well beingto child well being

Major problems of children in LDC’s Major problems of children in LDC’s stem from underlying conditionsstem from underlying conditions

Migration can create new problems for Migration can create new problems for children (esp. in vulnerable families), children (esp. in vulnerable families), but generally, it is solutionbut generally, it is solution

Implications for PoliciesImplications for Policies

Need to be aligned with historyNeed to be aligned with history• Migration is natural and inevitable part of Migration is natural and inevitable part of

developmentdevelopment

Special treatment or set asides create Special treatment or set asides create popular resentmentspopular resentments

Fairness in access to markets , such as Fairness in access to markets , such as labor, schooling, housing, credit is more labor, schooling, housing, credit is more acceptableacceptable