future transmission outlook and the implications for ... · future transmission outlook and the ......

25.02.2014 09 September, 2011

Future Powertrain Conference (20th February 2014)

Future transmission outlook and the implications for calibration

25.02.2014 25.02.2014 Clive Crewe (AVL UK)

AVL List, Transmission development. Internal Confidential

Contents

• Historical perspective Transmission Technology

• Key Market Drivers

• Global Industry Transmission Types and Volumes

• Transmission Technology Roadmap

• Calibration - The challenge

• Calibration Solutions

• Shift Quality

• Shift Scheduling


Historical Perspective: Transmission Technology Introduction

Num

ber o

f Spe

eds

First Introduction Year

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

'07

'04

‘13

‘15

'64

'89

'74

'02

Toroidal

2015

10

Average life cycle of new technologies getting shorter , # of technology options increasing rapidly.


Key Market Drivers – Transmission Sector

• FE and CO2 Regulations • Market Competitiveness • Globalization of Powertrain

Portfolios • Expansion of Chinese

Applications • Emerging Markets Needs • Economic Recovery • Engine downsizing/boosting

Strategies • Diesel Projects • Family Approach • Electrification

• Integrated and Modular

Fleet CAFE increased by 34% over the past 7 years, It needs to increase by another 62% by 2025

Global CO2 Standards

NA CAFE Fleet

5

Recent Major Announcements & Activities

• VW is developing a 10-Speed FWD wet DCT

• GM and Ford jointly developing 9-speed FWD and 10-Speed RWD AT’s

• Chrysler will use ZF 9-speed FWD AT and 8-Speed RWD AT across the board • Chrysler to produce these units in NA in their facilities

• Hyundai is developing a 10-speed RWD AT

• Rumors of ZF developing a 10-speed RWD for BMW applications

• ZF is developing a 9-Speed wet DCT for Porsche application

• Daimler is developing a 9-speed RWD AT

• Honda is developing a 8-speed FWD wet DCT

• Jatco is working on introducing their CVT-8 in NA


1%

37%

12% 4%

46%

AMT Automatic CVT DCT Manual

Current Global Transmissions Market

No one clear dominant type

Markets distinct

Manual

Automatic

DCT gaining ground

Euro / China

Source : PwC statistica 2013

Many options for vehicle/powertrain planners, transmission type highly application dependent


2

64 12

10 12

AMT

Automatic

CVT

DCT

Manual

12 19 1 8

60

AMT

Automatic

CVT

DCT

Manual 5 10 2 2

81

AMT

Automatic

CVT

DCT

Manual

3 35

10 7

45 AMT

Automatic

CVT

DCT

Manual

0.5 40

41

0.5 18 AMT

Automatic

CVT

DCT

Manual

Current global market

North America

Europe

South America

China

Japan

Source : PwC statistica 2013

DCT, CVT & MT volumes are increasing in China, CVT penetration is increasing in NA


Automatic transmissions

• Ratios increasing

• Volumes increasing

• China

• North America

• 9/10 Speeds

• Ford 10R / GM 9F / ZF 9HP

• Hyundai 10AT

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Mill

ions

GLOBAL - AT Volume Forecast

Automatic 10

Automatic 9

Automatic 8

Automatic 7

Automatic 6

Automatic 5

Automatic 4

Automatic 3

Significant 9/10 Speed options by 2020


DCT transmissions

• Ratios increasing


• 10 Speeds

• ~50,000 units

• VAG

• 570 Nm

9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Mill

ions

GLOBAL - DCT Volume Forecast

DCT 10

DCT 8

DCT 7

DCT 6

DCT 5

Volkswagen Group dominates the market

10

DCT –Wet or Dry?

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Mill

ions

DCT - GLOBAL

Wet Clutch

Dry Clutch

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

4

Mill

ions

DCT - CHINA

Wet Clutch

Dry Clutch

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

Mill

ions

DCT - Europe

Wet Clutch

Dry Clutch

Wet Clutch favoured over Dry

11

Source: IHS 04-2013

CVT


• North America

• Asia

• Europe market declining

• Driveability

• Efficiency

• Saturating below 12M ~ 2020

CVT take up entirely market dependent

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Mill

ions

GLOBAL CVT Volume Forecast

12

AT • Expanding rapidly from 6-speed to 8,9 & 10 speeds • Start/Stop capability with all new transmission • Emergence of new clutching systems for low losses • Integrated ETRS (Electronic Transmission Range Select) for all new designs • Electrification & Modular powertrain approach (Hybridization)

DCT • Moving from 6-speed to 7, 8, 9 & 10 speeds • Migration from dry-DCT to wet-DCT clutch system • Migration from electro-mechanical to electro-hydraulic Controls • ETRS and Modular Electrification • Emphasis on Cost Reduction

CVT • Emergence of Multi-mode CVT’s • Wider Ratio-Spreads and improved efficiency with significant FE/CO2 benefit • Steel-Belt dominance • Half-Toroidal CVT’s are being considered again

AMT • Migration from electro-mechanical to electro-hydraulic Controls • No significant growth – Emerging Market Opportunity

MT • Migrating from 5 to 6-speed, 7speed for high-end Sports Cars, eClutch

Summary

OEMs and transmission suppliers cannot handle this rapid growth with their in-house resources and need to outsource some Design & Development, Integration and Calibration

13

Calibration – Technology trend implication

Then

• Small teams

• 4/5 speed AT limited torque converter control

• Limited engine control integration

Transmission calibration has significantly evolved over the last 18 years

Now

• Medium/large teams

• 8/9/10 speed AT with sophisticated torque converter control

• Significant engine control capability

• GSI

Next

• 10/11 speed AT with increased torque converter control

• Driving environment/legislation -> Markets

• Platforms

• Increasingly complex engine control (Pedal maps now trans calibration task)

• Variable torque curves • Cylinder de-activation / 2 + 4 stroke / HEV /SCR

14

Transmission Calibration

Shift Quality

Shift Scheduling

Upshift

Downshift

A B

C

15

Calibration Tool Solutions

16

AVL DRICON:

• Enables fully automated test runs

AVL Transmission Calibration ACT for Chassis Dyno

AVL DRIVE: Objective drivability

assessment AVL CAMEO TRANSMISSION:

• Test plans using DoE methods • Perform controlled automated

test runs • Data evaluation and

optimization according the specified drivability target

Ground fixing device & load cell:

• Calculation of longitudinal vehicle acceleration

17

4. Driveability Evaluation Single Driving Mode Rating Overall Vehicle Assessment

1. Measurement of Driver Input & Vehicle Reaction Data Logging

2. Automated Driving Mode Detection

Nr. Time Driving manoeuver 1 11.56-15.59 Drive Away – Launch 2 19.14-20.81 Upshift – During WOT 3 21.21-24.11 Acceleration – WOT 4 25.54-26.25 Tip Out – After Acceleration ….

1 2 3 4

3. Parameter Calculation – Single Event

AccelerationGradient

Disengage

18,9[m/s3]

AccelerationGradient

Disengage

18,9[m/s3]

EngagementShock

0,48[m/s2]

EngagementShock

0,48[m/s2]

AccelerationGradientEngage

25,5[m/s3]8,19

AccelerationGradientEngage

25,5[m/s3]8,19

ZeroAcceleration

Time

0,47[s]

ZeroAcceleration

Time

0,47[s]

Traction Interruption

Time

0,81[s]

Traction Interruption

Time

0,81[s]

AVL Transmission AVL – DRIVE Objective Shift Quality Tool

18

In Vehicle Crankshaft Torque Measurement From Pressure to Torque

http://konstrukteur4u.de/Motoren/

ICE Working Cycle: (4-stroke)

Abstraction: (geometric relationships)

actual crankshaft torque

Pressure measurement: (gasoline, diesel)

19

CAN-Node

ECU TCU

CAN-Manipulation

Drive by-wire

Measurement System

AVL DRIVE SQ Ratings

Engine Acc. Sensor

Indication System AVL DriCon Driver Controller System

In Vehicle Crankshaft Torque Measurement Measurement Setup

https://projects.avl.com/10/0223/Media Gallery/Drive2.jpg

20

Shift Scheduling

21

Shift scheduling = When does the transmission change gear?

Gear Decision

Decide suitable torque converter state

Road dependent

Driver dependent

System dependent

Market dependent

Situation dependent

CO2 Reduction – Fuel economy

22

Shift Scheduling

23

Base Shift Maps & Pedal Map Influences Trade off - Fuel Economy and Drivability

Gradient / Payload

Driver Defined Modes (Drive, Sport,

Eco,..)

Driver Sportiness

Best Operation Point

Eng

ine

Torq

ue (N

m)

Engine Speed (rpm)

24

The race for gears

25

AVL Shift Point Optimisation Tool

Shift map automatically generated based on user preferences

26

Transmission Technology Roadmap Pass Cars and LD Trucks

2010 2015 2020

eClutch for MT

8/9/10 Speed w-DCT’s6/7Spd Dual Clutch Transmissions wet, dry, moist applications

Multi-Mode and High-Efficiency CVTs Continuously Variable Transmissions - CVTs

Development of ‘add-in’ and ‘add-on’ Modules Alternative NVH solutions

Automated Process

NVH Optimization SW & Math-tool Development

ACT DRIVE INDICOM

‘Low-Cost’ DCT’s

‘Modular Hybridization of Transmissions’ Integration of DCTs/CVTs with electric final-drive units

New Low-Loss Clutching Mechanisms

Hydraulic Support Elements [Hydraulic Impulse Storage for Stop/Start]

6, 8, 9, and 10 speed AT’s 6, 7, 8 speed AT’s

Torq

ue-

Inte

rrup

t Tr

ansm

issi

ons

Pow

ersh

ift T

rans

mis

sion

s 5 and 6 speed MT 7 speed Manual for High-Performance Cars

Engine Start / Stop Capability

AMT & Electrified AMT Torque Fill / Fast Shifting AMT

Speed Matching for Smooth Shifting

27

America Argentinia Brasil Mexico Michigan Ohio

Europe Germany France Great Britain Italy Austria (HQ) Poland Romania Russia Sweden Slovenia Spain Czech Republic Turkey Hungary

Asia China India Indonesia Japan Korea Thailand Australia

AVL – A GLOBAL PARTNER Thank you for your Attention!


Source: IHS 11-2011

Global Industry Transmission Types and Volumes

Full Hybrid and EV penetration is less than 3% , FE/CO2 regulations must be met by Conven. PTs

MT

29

Estimated time schedule

fast optimization loops

1st Calibration

Further calibrations (variants)

Test Plan Test Run Modeling Optimization Verify Resources

Calibration Phases

Engineer

Chassis Dyno

Vehicle

Generate Maps

Resources

Engineer

Chassis Dyno

Vehicle

Test Plan Test Run Modeling Optimization Verify

Calibration Phases

Generate Maps

Duration ~ 4 weeks

Data check

Data check

Repeat process

30

1st Gear,Upshifting

1st Gear,Downshifting

2nd Gear,Upshifting

2nd Gear,Downshifting

3rd Gear,Upshifting

3rd Gear,Downshifting

4th Gear,Upshifting

4th Gear,Downshifting

5th Gear,Upshifting


21 3 4 5 6

Adaptation

1st Gear,Upshifting


2nd Gear,Upshifting


3rd Gear,Upshifting


4th Gear,Upshifting


5th Gear,Upshifting


21 3 4 5 6

Adaptation

1st Gear,Upshifting


2nd Gear,Upshifting


3rd Gear,Upshifting


4th Gear,Upshifting


5th Gear,Upshifting


21 3 4 5 6

1st Gear,Upshifting


2nd Gear,Upshifting


3rd Gear,Upshifting


4th Gear,Upshifting


5th Gear,Upshifting


21 3 4 5 6

Modifications of reference GSP according to the optimal gears map

Original Shifting Programs Optimized Shifting Program (with CRUISE GSP)

Optimum Specific Fuel Consumption Zone

Fuel consumption optimization on NEDC cycle – Gasoline application

Shift scheduling = From bad to good

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