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25 Ssience Fiction Survey/Conferences

The book is of interest as further

development of the series, but in the

end I was disappointed. It is not well-

integrated; the philosophical quotes

that begin each chapter on the nature

of religion and time, are never re-

flected in the actual plot. How Pauls

religion has affected the social struc-

tures of Dune or the empire is not

clear, nor was I ever able to grasp what

the childrens ability to foresee/alter

the future enables them to do in the

present and why. New terms and

concepts are introduced that are not

foreshadowed in the earlier books,

causing some confusion, and the ending

(archetypal Superman) is sexist to

boot. So, if youve started the trilogy,

finish it with this book; otherwise,

read Briton

ONFEREN ES

Defining water management for the 1980s

The United Nations Water Con-

ference, Mar de1 Plats, Argentina,

March 1977

W TERmanagement will assume a new

role in the 198Os, if only to avoid an

impending water crisis. But how will

this crisis manifest itself? The water

conference greatly contributed to a

definition of the crisis. Very briefly,

there are four basic problems which

have been ignored for too long, if only

because water seemed abundant for

ever and was very cheap:

he worlds water is highly unevenly

distributed between areas, seasons

and years,

common ownership of river basins

and lakes foments political and other

conflicts,

0 water contamination remains largely

unchecked, and, last but not least,

only a small portion of the worlds

water resources can be used at

present.

The water supply

The worlds total water stock is guessti-

mated at 1.4 billion km3. More than

97 of this is seawater which cannot

yet be desalted on a large scale, eco-

nomically. This leaves about 40 million

km3 of surface water (mainly ice caps

and glaciers) and groundwater.

That limits the water supply to 8

million km3 of groundwater and 0.2

million km3 of surface water, mostly

rivers, and lakes. However, much of the

groundwater is beyond mans present

exploitation as it lies at a depth of more

than 800 metres. The usable stock is

thus limited to 0.3 million km3 of

groundwater and 0.2 million km3 of

surface water. [One km3 equals 1

trillion ( 10i2) litre.]

The limit of withdrawal is the rain

and snow, the precipitation-the cru-

cial stage of the cycle which starts with

evaporation of the oceans, rivers, lakes

and the land. This is a never ending

cycle, natures one great desalination

plant. The daily water cycle averages

1100 km3, of which 250 km3 fall on the

land where man may use it. Except that

about 70 of that precipitation never

enters the streamflow. Before man can

use it, it evaporates or is absorbed by

plants and transpired through their

leaves.

The water cycle is more complex

than pictured here, but it does imply

that we face a limited water supply.

The demand for water

All the economic sectors need water:

in most industrialised nations, energy

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onferences

251

and manufacturing industry now make

the heaviest claim on water eg mining,

building, primary metal plants, re-

fineries, pulp and paper industry,

chemical industry, and the food and

beverage industries.

One must distinguish between water

consumption and water use. Industry

uses generally the same water twice or

even more frequently.

The crux of the matter is not how

much water industry uses, but rather

what it uses the water for, how much

it pays for it, and to what extent it

contam~ates the water which it returns

to the streamflow.

At present,

water is not an eco-

nomic factor in industry. The average

cost of water in the total plant cost

varies from 0.1 o/0 to 1 loo/&--and occa-

sionally reaches 2.5 . Given the inevi-

tably high cost of water management,

one can expect fresh water to become

more expensive.

Taken as a whole, North American

industry recycles water once, but some

industries recycle water twice. The

degree of recycling and reuse is

rising every year (a ton of steel requires

about 200 000 litre of water, a ton of

paper 300 000 litre and a ton of syn-

thetic rubber 2 000 000 litre).

Currently, industrys most important

competitors for water are energy and

agriculture (it takes an average 10 litre

of water to produce one kWh).

Worldwide, agriculture uses three-

quarters of all the water consumed.

Irrigated land requires a million gallons

of water per acre on an average (10

million Iitre per hectare)-but the

high-yield miracle rice and corn use

quite a lot more. In many countries it

takes 10 litre of water for a kilo of

springbeans, 10 000 litre for a dozen

Iarge eggs, and 30 000 Iitre for a kiIo of

prime beef. These quantities depend of

course on a variety of factors, such as

humidity, light, soil moisture, tempera-

ture and wind. However, the water

intake can average one hundred times

the dry weight of a plant during one

growing season. Vegetables use much

more water than men or animaIs,

because their throughput of water is

tremendous. (One hectare of potatoes

demands 4 million litre of water.)

If, as is expected, the need for irriga-

tion rises more sharply than the

demand for energy and industrial goods

then competition for water will be

fierce in many parts of the world.

Cooperation

The heart of the matter at the con-

ference was, obviously, the need to

manage water judiciously by a com-

prehensive cooperative system between

nations as well as between users. While

the technicians will be called upon to

expand the available amount of surface

water and groundwater, the private

sector will be invited to cooperate with

the public sector in water management.

The cure-all for the water crisis is

called water management, but it

means different things to different

people. At the water conference, the

fo~owing facets of rational management

were mostly discussed

o

Improve the distribution of water, by

constructing surface reservoirs, carry-

ing water from surplus to deficit

territories, and protecting the soil of

natural watersheds.

Expand, in the same vein, the use of

underground storage.

a Enhance the efficiency in the use of

water by recycling, and by reducing

waste.

Ameliorate the quality of water by

purifying sewage and keeping waste-

waters away from river basins ancl

lakes.

Expand the yield of water by desdlt-

ing seawater, reduce losses in eva-

poration, and modify the weather.

Rational water management would

require a global information system

using communications satellites. The

latter are to measure rain, and river

gauges all over the world, computerise

the results and provide the nations with

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Conferences

up to date information on the hydro-

logical cycle. The system would chart

river flows and levels by latitude and

longitude. Eventually it would be used

to measure groundwater levels, soil

moisture,

snow cover, atmospheric

water vapour, lake levels, and salinity in

estuaries. In the industrial sphere, it

would imply the creation of closed

circuit systems, whereby water circu-

lates without risking contamination of

lakes, streams and river basins. This

would in addition reduce the absolute

withdrawal of water from the hydro-

logical cycle.

Rational water management assumes

a high degree of cooperation between

countries and professions. Last but not

least, it assumes that in view of the ever

rising demand for water (6 per year,

so far) and the constant volume of

supply, the price of water will have to

be commensurate with the usefulness of

Western Europe in transition

its application and the contamination

of the process, end-, and by-products.

Hitherto, water management has

been the bailiwick of the public sector.

The role of industry in water manage-

ment has been almost nil. This may well

explain why so little new technology has

been developed in the area of water

supply and distribution.

Since industry was all but absent at

the water conference, its future role in

water management and cooperation

remains to be defined. It could well be

that a steep rise in the cost of water,

advocated inter alia by the World Bank,

will render industry sensitive to the

challenge of water management, and

will render the public authorities

sensitive to a valuable contribution by

industry.

Andre van Darn

Argentina

International Symposium on

Europes future: new initiatives

and methods in managing

change London 30-3 1 March

1977

This symposium, a follow-up to an

earlier one,l brought together partici-

pants whose governments were all

under threat:

eg being forced into

coalitions by new political, social and

economic conditions, or into devaluing

the currency. The commonality of

conditions, particularly the paradoxes,

in European countries was readily

established. For example there is in

many

countries

an incompatibility

between individuals desire to take

initiatives and government unwilling-

ness to reward resourcefulness and offer

security to such individuals.

Throughout the meeting a constant

underlying theme was that Western

Europe is however on the eve of major

change. Participants endeavoured to

characterise the changes and to suggest

action points where change could also

be catalysed.

Most felt that initiatives would have

to be taken at a nongovernmental,

individual, and corporate level. As

Terence Price (UK) pointed out, a

basic problem in peacetime, where a

major objective is the preservation of a

pluralistic society, is that of establishing

a consensus, of providing a vision.

He suggested that the vision would

come from the political and social

institutions, especially if these were

modelled along US lines. It was

replied, first that US practices are

inappropriate to the European con-

text, and second that there is an initial

need for thinkers and philosophers to

point out the fundamental problems,

ask the right questions, and provide

the vision, before establishing the

institutions.

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