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Futurism, Innovation & WiFiNetworks & Comms is too Important to Leave to the Telcos

Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis

WiFi Now Washington DC, April 2017

[email protected] @disruptivedean

Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis

n Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991n Futurism, Forecasting & anti-forecastingn Cross-silo, contrarian, independentn Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017April 2017

Network Tech, Policy & Business Models

Communications Apps & Services Telco-Futurism

What is a network/comms service provider?


MNOMVNO

TowerCoWISP

RoamingCar-SP

Private MNOPS-OrgSliceNOeSIM SP

Fixed telco Cable MSO

Biz. MSPAltNet

Fix-Wireless WholesaleFibreCoSD-WANSec-aaS

Community

Mobile Fixed

BroadcastSatellite

ISP/HostingVenueSP

cPaaSIndustrySP

CDNCall CtrSaaS

IoT-SP

Other

What is a “service”?

Subscription basis?

Service vs. feature?

Substitution risks?

Infrastructure?

Boundary with software?

Uncertainties

The central dilemma at the heart of telecoms


Manage / slice / virtualise /

optimise onenetwork & add

in-path features

Bond / broker multiple

networks & put features at edge or in

the cloud

Open OS’s, developers, AI & unlicensed / shared spectrum

push in this direction

SD-WANMulti-IMSIMulti-SIM

3rd party WiFiDual radiosMesh/D2D

NFVMEC

Network slicingContention Mgmt

WiFi offloadQoS

Standards bodies, industry alliances, operator internal

politics push in this direction


Is the “Network Establishment” over-reaching?

Is Telecoms (& WiFi) too important to leave up to Telcos?Is there too much “closed” control-freakery?

Consumer, business & social trends forward to 2030….


Futurist narratives applied to networks assume too muchIoT = connected everything! Robots, cities, self-driving cars, homes, wearables, factories, AR/VR, drones, 5G

Data traffic exponential. Single standard, more capacity, managed QoS, NFV & ultra-low latency

Faster/denser connectivity services, inclusion, more subscribers, some wholesale relationships & sharing

Govt wins big license fees, efficient market from peers competing, economy benefits from IoT-led productivity

Therefore, lots more mobile spectrum needed, in conveniently-large slices, primarily for national MNOs


Assumptions

Assumptions

Changing our assumptions & semantics for 2030


Services Capabilities

Competition Substitution

Harmonisation Diversity

Managed Intelligent

Ubiquitous Tailored

Monocultures give efficiency… but also fragility


Antifragile: “Things that gain from disorder”

Mono-platforms & ecosystem diversity


image: www.freeimages.co.uk

Monolithic platforms are fragile to external trends

Arbitrage is everywhere & it will be accelerated by AI


Example 1: eSIM vs. multi-SIM vs. multi-IMSI vs. MNC codes etcExample 2: WiFi vs. Bluetooth vs. ZigBee vs. Data-Over-Sound for Short Range

Example 3: Videoconferencing vs. collaboration app vs. other comms

Dangerous to be religious about any one solution / standard

Wireless “service providers” of the future?


IIoT & Industry 4.0 has many domain-specific requirements


“National” policies & licenses may not always work


Power station

Car factory

Airport

Oil refinery

Port

Offshore windfarm

Shared Spectrum rules could enable private, regional industrial-grade 5G/WiFi networks for IoT & Industry 4.0 (Perhaps with a blockchain register?)

Innovation from orthogonal trends in society & business


What do all these technologies have in common?


Words matter. Choose them wisely.

Opportunity & value arises at tech intersections


Anal

ytic

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Mac

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lear

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Wea

rabl

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fu

ture

wel

lbei

ng

IoT

& se

nsor

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FinT

ech

& Bl

ockc

hain

Urba

nisa

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& sm

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Biom

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ent

Wide-Area Access Networks: 5G, FTTx, LPWAN, Sat etc

Local Networks: WiFi, BLE, ZigBee, V2V

Pervasive AI will deeply impact network demand & supply


Least-cost routing

Energy Management

Quasi-QoS

Multiple variables

Autonomous & Offline

Path Optimisation

Capacity Planning

IoT data management

Blockchain options at many network-industry intersections


Data Integrity

Micropayments

Identity

Smart contracts

etc

etc

etc

etc

NetworkRoam & w/sale

Billing / OSS WiFi IoT

ServicesSpectrum

etcetc

Engaging with the future….


Cross-Organisation Involvement Partners & VendorsCompetitions, Incubators &

Hackathons

What might 2030 mean for innovation, WiFi & spectrum?n Network “monoculture” vs “diversity”n Industrial IoT will bring many unique requirementsn Privately-managed wireless (licensed-band WiFi?)n Revisit the definition of “services”, telcos & SPsn Wireless connectivity ownership gets democratisedn Substitution = Functional Competitionn Sharing mechanisms for time/geo-fenced licencingn AI will have profound & unexpected impactsn Many tech pathways for any “outcome”


WiFi has a critical role – but it needs advocacy & vision

www.disruptive-analysis.comdisruptivewireless.blogspot.com@disruptivedean

[email protected]

Skype:disruptiveanalysisappear.in/disruptiveanalysis


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