gal workshop inno58h
TRANSCRIPT
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FuturesworkshopINNO58Hworkingday
5.4.2013
JohannaOllila&SariMieDnen
FinlandFuturesResearchCentre
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Futuresworkshopflow
9.009.30Facingthefuture 9.3012.00Futuresworkshop Futureswheel Break Futurestable Storyofafuture iscussion
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Howtofacethefuture
Passive:whathappened? Youanalyseaersomethinghaschanged
Reac+ve:whenhappens Youreacttoachangewhenitishappening
Preac+ve:ifhappens YououtlineseveralpossibiliXesandgetreadytoreacttoanyofthem
Proac+ve:letsmakeithappen Youtrytomakeadesirablefuturetocometrue
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Basicconceptsoffuturesstudies
Forecas+ng:predicXnganoccurrenceofaneventwithgivenprobability,viewoftheworldisratherstable
Foresight:broadtermcoveringawidevarietyofmethods,differsfromforecasXngsinceitallowsmulXplefuturestateswhichcan
differsubstanXallyfromwhatistherealitytoday
Megatrend:anissueshapingthefutureofpracXcallyallareasofthesocietyduringthecomingdecades,oenglobalexamples:globalisaXon,useofICT
Trend:idenXfiedgeneraldevelopmentpathofanissue,sphereofinfluencecanbeanythingfromglobaltoasmallgroup
examples:growinginterestonrenewableenergyordietarytrends
Futuresstudiesglossaryat:hp://www.audiencedialogue.net/glossfut.html
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ForecasXng(dataextrapolaXon)
PresentXmeHistory Imagesofthefuture
Decreases
BAU
Grows
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Openfuture(visionary)
PresentXmeHistory Imagesofthefuture?
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Whatisexecutable?CapabilitytooperateTechnology
+Resources
Whatisacceptable?LicencetooperateSociety
Whatisprofitableanddesirable?
Reasontooperate?Markets
FuturesofImaginaryOpXons
FuturesofPossibleOpXons
FuturesofRealOpXons
Futures
of Access
Futures
of Viable
Solutions
MarkoAhvenainen,FFRC
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Futuresworkshop:Whathappensin2025?
Joinyourteammembersatyourworkingspace Explorethebasicneedbehindtheteamtopicandputitonthecentre
ofthesheet
Take5minutestothinkabouttheteamtopic,writeyourideasonpostitnotes
rawamindmapwithyourteamaroundyourtopic:discussthepostitideas
Environmentalscanning:picturethesystemaroundtheteamtopic,whatkindofsocial,technological,environmental,poliXcal,and
economicfactorsandvalueshaveaneffectonthetopic?
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Blackswans(opXonalexercise)
Blackswans/weaksignals/wildcards:eventswhichhavealowprobability,thusbeingasurprisefortheobserver,andhaveamajor
impact
Gothroughthepreviousdiscussions.Arethereitemsthatcouldbelabelledasblackswans?Whatkindofeffectstheymighthaveonthetopic?
Youcanalsocomeupwithnewitemsandthinkabouttheireffects
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Futuresof
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TesXngthefuture:GetaLife!simulaXon
SimulaXngvariouspossiblefuturesinpersonalandworklifeupto20yearsahead
OnlinesimulaXontooldesignedforstudents,includes>900simulatedsituaXonsfromtheworkingworldofthefuture
EachsituaXonentailsseveralplausiblechoices ChoicesleadtoconsequencessodiversethatsomeXmesevena
proacXvemindcannotanXcipate
IniXatescontemplaXonofonescapabiliXes,lifeandthevariousscenariosofthefutureworklife
Unlikethereallife,thesimulaXonprovidesanopportunitytogobackandchoosedifferentlyandthusexplorevariousfuturepaths
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Thankyou!
Moreinforma+on:
JohannaOllila:[email protected]
SariMie