garima kapoor [email protected] +91 22 6164...

Garima Kapoor

[email protected]

+91 22 6164 8527

Jatan Gogri

[email protected]

+91 22 6164 8591

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited NDA-2 VS. UPA-2 2

The Election season is back and 2019 promises to be the most crucial election in India’s history. An estimated 900

million Indians will be heading to the polls to elect their next government.

The government’s performance is under scrutiny. Various policy priorities are being assessed, some are being

questioned and others are being criticised. In this electoral journey, comparisons between the performances of

the governments are obvious.

In this backdrop, we are happy to bring to you a comprehensive analysis of the policy priorities and performances

of the Narendra Modi led NDA and Manmohan Singh led UPA (2009-2014) covering issues such as policy for

growth & development, fiscal policy, social security policy, agriculture policy, price & inflation management and

rural development policy. We hope you find the narrative interesting.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited NDA-2 VS. UPA-2

Summary

3

A close analysis of policy priorities of NDA (2014-2019) & UPA (2009-14) shows that the key differentiating factor

between the approaches of the two governments has been ‘execution capabilities’

For instance, a closer look at the policies and programs shows that NDA’s Rural development policy did not differ

significantly from that of UPA. But the results were better as technology was leveraged for higher reach and

greater efficiency

While NDA attempted to change the way we perceived agriculture growth by focussing on enhancing realisation

for farmers rather than maximising output; the agenda remains unfinished. Eventually, despite better policy

formulation, NDA too resorted to announcing higher MSPs and farm loan waivers (under state governments) due

to political exigencies

In terms of policies for social security and infrastructure growth, clearly, NDA has a better score card than UPA

However, in terms of fiscal policy and management of government finances, both governments took recourse to

‘unconventional measures’ to fund deficit

Economic growth remained lack lustre under both regimes as private sector investment appetite remained weak


Table of Content

4

Sumamry …………………………………………………………………………….. 3

Priorities of the two government…………………………………………….. 5

Performance of Growth …………………………………………………………. 6

Performance of Fiscal Policy ………………………………………………….. 11

Performance of Inflation Management Policy ………………………….. 18

Performance of Infrastructure Policy ………………………………………. 23

Performance of Rural Development Policy ………………………………. 28

Performance of Agriculture Policy ………………………………………….. 32

Performance of Social Security Policy ……………………………………... 38

Performance of Finance Inclusion ………………………………………….. 42

Way forward: Unfinished Agenda …………………………………………… 46


Priorities of the UPA and NDA governments

5

Ministry (%) UPA NDADifference

(NDA minus UPA)

Petroleum 4.51 1.89 (2.62)

Chemicals & Fertilizers 5.20 3.41 (1.79)

Human Resource Development 4.39 3.67 (0.72)

Rural Development 4.95 4.60 (0.35)

Women & Child Development 1.06 0.99 (0.07)

Drinking Water & Sanitation 0.85 0.79 (0.05)

Health & Family Welfare 1.95 2.13 0.18

Defence 16.57 16.84 0.27

Communications 1.12 1.47 0.35

Indian Railways 1.68 2.13 0.46

Road Trasport & Highways 1.83 2.66 0.83

Consumer Affairs 5.92 6.76 0.84

Housing & Urban Affairs 0.66 1.51 0.85

Agriculture & Farmers Welfare 1.73 2.58 0.85

Home Affairs 3.41 4.35 0.94

NDA focus is more towards creating hard infrastructure; UPA

focus more towards soft infrastructure

Contrary to popular perception, UPA allocated a greater

share of the Budget toward rural development during its

tenure than the NDA. This happened primarily as MGNREGA

and Indira Awas Yojana were being scaled up

Despite the criticism, NDA has allocated a greater share of

the Budget toward healthcare and agriculture than UPA,

primarily on account of Ayushmaan Bharat, Fasal Bima

Yojana and the income support scheme

Share of ministries in Union Budget (five-year average)

Source: Budget Documents, Elara Securities Research

GROWTH REMAINS LACKLUSTRE UNDER BOTH REGIMES; CAUSES DIFFER


Growth Moderates towards H2 of Both Regimes; Reasons Differ

GDP growth moderates during H2 of both regimes Per capita growth registers a higher CAGR under NDA

Source: Central Statistical Organisation,, Bloomberg, Elara Securities Research Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Elara Securities Research

Both regimes saw moderation in growth towards second half of the five-year term

While UPA regime suffered from policy paralysis, growth in NDA regime was adversely affected by demonetization and GST

In the short term, the cash economy and unorganized sectors were the most negatively affected

In the long term, however, we could see tailwinds, such as higher organised sector growth emerging from these measures

7

5

6

7

8

9

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19 (

AE)

(YoY %)

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19 (

AE)

Per Capita Real GDP (LHS) Per Capita Real GDP Growth (RHS)

(INR ‘000) (YoY %)

CAGR: 4.60%

CAGR: 6.24%


Stalled Projects Ease under NDA as Bureaucratic Hurdles Dissipate

Stalled projects ease under NDA

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

100

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

(YoY %) For environmental clearances, in June

2014, the NDA had government launched

an online system for seeking and

tracking the status of the environment

and forest clearances

In April 2015, the NDA government had

brought standard terms of reference for

conducting environmental impact studies

for projects related to 39 industrial and

infrastructure sectors

Consequently, by end-2017, average

processing time for green clearances fell

sharply from 580 days to 180 days. The

government has a target of lowering the

average time for green clearances under

100 days

Source: CMIE, Elara Securities Research

8

NDA installs single window clearance for projects


Investment Falls amid Excess Capacity Created under UPA...

5

10

15

20

25

30

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

(INR tn)(no)

Industrial Project Proposal (RHS) Total New Project Cost (LHS)

New project proposals continue to fall

Source: CEIC, Elara Securities Research

Note: Yearly average has been calculated taking a period of 4 yearsSource: Centre for Science & Environment, Elara Securities Research

Capacity created during the UPA regime, which remains

unutilized, prevented meaningful addition to the investment

pipeline during the NDA regime

Demonetization & GST further derailed the process

Total NDA Yearly average NDA

Sectors Projects (no)

Capacity (MTPA)

Projects (no)

Capacity (MTPA)

Coal Mining 96 216.5 24 54.1

Iron Ore Mining 17 44.5 4 11.1

Lime Stone Mining 63 127.2 16 31.8

Bauxite Mining 11 10.8 3 2.7

Other Minerals 236 285.9 59 71.5

Thermal Power (MW)

35 44.727 9 11,182

Hydro (MW) 11 4,917 3 1,229

Iron and Steel 70 90 18 22.5

Cement 39 109.2 10 27.3

Trend in granting EC: NDA (June 2014- May 2018)

Trend in granting EC : UPA 2 (January 2009-May 2014)

Note: Yearly average has been calculated taking a period of 5 years and 4 monthsSource: Centre for Science & Environment, Elara Securities Research

Total UPA II Yearly average UPA II

Sectors Projects (no)

Capacity (MTPA)

Projects (no)

Capacity (MTPA)

Coal mining 174 387.3 32 71.7

Iron ore mining 77 141.1 14 26.1

Lime stone mining 78 64.3 14 11.9

Bauxite mining 16 18.1 3 3.4

Other minerals 120 61.6 22 11.4 Thermal power

(MW)194 169,532 36 31,395

Hydro (MW) 21 8,311 4 1,539

Iron & steel 195 128.1 36 23.7

Cement 97 192.9 18 35.7

9


...which amid Bank NPA Means Weaker Credit Growth for NDA

Non-food credit sees slow growth under NDA regime Credit to industry fails to register any growth

Source: RBI, Bloomberg, Elara Securities Research Source: RBI, Bloomberg, Elara Securities Research

10

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19TD

(INR bn) CAGR: 1.08%

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19TD

(INR tn)

FISCAL POLICY: NDA’S FISCAL POLICY SEEMS TO BE CONTINUATION OF UPA’S


NDA Maintains Greater Headline Fiscal Discipline...

Fiscal deficit Revenue deficit & effective revenue deficit

Source: Union Budget Documents, Elara Securities Research Source: Union Budget Documents, Elara Securities Research

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19 (

RE)

FY20 (

BE)

(% GDP)

Actual Budgeted

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19 (

BE)

FY20 (

BE)

(% GDP)

Revenue Deficit Effective Revenue Deficit

12


...Aided by Boost in the Tax-GDP Ratio amid Improving Compliance

Direct tax GDP ratio rises 100bp under NDA

Source: Union Budget Documents, MOSPI, Elara Securities Research Source: Union Budget Documents, MOSPI, Elara Securities Research

5.7 5.7 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 6.0 6.4 6.6

4.0 4.6

4.5 4.8

4.4

4.4 5.3 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19 (

BE)

FY20 (

BE)

(% GDP)

Direct Tax Indirect Tax

1.08

1.12

1.16

1.20

1.24

1.28

FY14 FY18

No of returns filed to no of persons filing returns

Average return filed per person also increases

There has been a 200bps increase in the tax-GDP ratio in the past five years

There has been an increase in compliance as reflected in the ratio of the number of returns filed to the number of persons filing

returns. This ratio shows returns filed per person in a year

Higher number indicates past returns that were filed, suggesting improvement in compliance

13


Quality of Spending Remains Unimpressive

Internal & extra budgetary spendingRevenue and capital expenditure

Source: Union Budget Documents, Elara Securities ResearchSource: Union Budget Documents, MOSPI, Elara Securities Research

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19 (

RE)

FY20 (

BE)

Resources of Public Enterprises (LHS) IEBR % Total Exp (RHS)

(INR bn) (% total expenses)

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

10

11

12

13

14

15

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19 (

RE)

FY20 (

BE)

(% GDP)(% GDP)

Revenue Expenditure (LHS) Capital Expenditure (RHS)

While capital expenditure saw robust growth in the initial two years, it lost pace in the latter years

More importantly, the NDA government continues to push the burden of capex on extra-budgetary recourses with Internal and Extra-

Budgetary Resources (IEBR) rising to INR 6tn in FY20 from less than INR 3tn in FY14 under the UPA regime

14


Reliance Rises on Non-Tax Revenue & Unconventional Disinvestment

Disinvestment receipts see sharp rise under NDA regime

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19 (

RE)

FY20 (

BE)

(INR bn)

CAGR: 21.89%

CAGR: 7.35%

Dividend & surplus from RBI, nationalized banks

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19 (

RE)

FY20 (

BE)

(INR bn)

CAGR: 0.85%

CAGR: 25.14%

Source: Union Budget Documents, Elara Securities ResearchSource: Union Budget Documents, Elara Securities Research

NDA increased reliance on dividend receipts — a continuation of the policy adopted by the UPA towards the end of its tenure

RBI’s surplus transfer policy in particular has been put under scrutiny under the NDA, with the RBI paying interim dividend in FY18

as well as FY19 (INR 100bn and INR 280bn, respectively)

Reliance on unconventional and offmarket disinvestments rose multifold under the NDA

Receipts worth INR 74.72bn were in the form of buybacks and cross-holdings of Central Public Sector Enterprises under the entire

regime of UPA-2 vs INR 656.98bn under the NDA to date, suggesting greater reliance on unconventional measures for raising

revenue

15


Fuel Price Liberalisation Helped, but So Did Unpaid Subsidy Dues

Subsidy burden declines... …partly aided by unpaid food subsidy

Source: Union Budget Documents, Elara Securities Research Source: Union Budget Documents, Ministry of Finance, Elara Securities Research

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19 (

RE)

FY20 (

BE)

(% GDP)(% total Exp)

Subsidy % Total Exp (LHS) Subsidy % GDP (RHS)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600


(INR bn)

Food subsidy released for the year

Food subsidy released against earlier years

FY18 RE showed a drop in food subsidy by INR 400bn to INR 1tn from INR 1.4tn

Food Corporation of India raised INR 1.4tn in FY18 (RE) via other sources up from INR 720bn in initial estimates. This has further

increased to INR 1.96tn in FY19 (RE) from INR 720bn (BE), suggesting greater reliance on borrowings by Food Corporation of India

due to delayed payment by the government

The above exhibit shows for FY18, the government did not release any subsidy pertaining to that year and only paid backlogs

16


States Fiscal Position Worsens under the NDA Regime

State fiscal deficit rises sharply in recent years… …even as developmental expenditure fails to increase

Source: RBI, Elara Securities Research Source: RBI, Elara Securities Research

50

60

70

80

90

100

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18 (

RE)

FY19 (

BE)

(% Deficit)(% GSDP)

Gross Fiscal Deficit % GSDP (LHS)

Financing Fiscal Deficit via Market Borrowings (RHS)

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18 (

RE)

FY19 (

RE)

Total Development Exp (LHS) % Total Exp (RHS)

(INR bn) (% Total Exp)

CAGR: 13.98%

CAGR: 14.64%

A greater share of untied funds under 14th Finance Commission and compensation under GST for losses accrued encouraged the

NDA to reduce the centrally sponsored schemes from 72 to 27 in 2015

However, lack of ability to spend efficiently amid loan waivers granted by some states means overall decline in fiscal discipline of the

States

17

INFLATION MANAGEMENT: NDA SCORES HIGHER


NDA Witnesses Era of Excesses with No Major Droughts

Food grain production rises significantly under the NDA

Source: Ministry of Agriculture & Farmer Welfare, Elara Securities Research Source: Indian Meteorological Department, Elara Securities Research

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150


(mn tonne)

Rabi Kharif

There are no major droughts under the NDA government

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Departure from LPA in % (South west monsoon)

NDA witnessed record high food production for Kharif as well as Rabi crops, leading to a significant decline in food prices, especially

for items like pulses especially from FY18

UPA had seen one of the worst droughts in India’s history in 2009 when the Southwest Monsoon was recorded at 22% below its

long-period average

Thus, while the UPA dealt with shortages, NDA had to deal with excesses. This primarily determined the difference in approach of

the two regimes towards food policy management

19


Food Management under NDA for Consumers Better Than UPA

NDA releases food stocks on a periodic basis... ..and undertakes procurement & import of pulses

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan/0

9

Jan/1

0

Jan/1

1

Jan/1

2

Jan/1

3

Jan/1

4

Jan/1

5

Jan/1

6

Jan/1

7

Jan/1

8

Jan/1

9

(mn tonne)

Rice stocks with FCI Wheat stocks with FCI

After the severe drought in 2009, UPA continued to hold significantly higher food stocks than the required norms of 21.4mn tonnes

in January every year

On the other hand, NDA continued to release grains from buffer norms, which helped to contain food prices at the wholesale levels.

It also created a price stabilization fund to procure and import pulses after witnessing 40% pulses inflation at wholesale level in FY16

As such, food prices cooled off significantly from FY17

Rabi pulses procured (completed for masoor and

chana) (RMS 2017-18)87,473.37

Kharif pulses procured (KMS 2015-16) 50,422.53

Rabi pulses procured (RMS 2016-17) 69,049.08

Kharif pulses procured (KMS 2016-17) 1,471,567.11

Imported pulses 378,699.57

Total 2,057,211.66

Source: Food Corporation of India, Elara Securities Research Source: Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Elara Securities Research

20


Low Food Inflation Results in Low Rural Wages, Weak Trade Terms

CPI inflation remains subdued under the NDA regime But food disinflation led to low agri wage growth

Note: For FY10,FY11 & FY12 Industrial Workers CPI has been taken; Source: CEIC & Bloomberg;, Elara

Securities Research Source: RBI, Bloomberg, Elara Securities Research

0

5

10

15

20

25

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

(YoY %)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FYTD

19

(YoY %)

CPI WPI CPI (Food)

A pro-active food management policy along with higher food production & imports to manage prices led to a sharp fall in food

inflation in FY18

This affected realization of farmers, resulting in lower wage growth and weaker terms of trade for the sector

As such, what benefitted consumers proved not to be beneficial for farmers

21


MSP Hike in 2018 to Reverse Decline in Food Prices also Fails

Rice price to MSP ratio falls sharply under NDA regime... ...So did wheat price to MSP ratio

Source: Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution, CCAP, Elara Securities Research Source: Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution, CCAP, Elara Securities Research

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

(INR/QTL)

Avg FY Rice Price (LHS) Price MSP Ratio (RHS)

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

Avg FY Wheat Price (LHS) Price MSP Ratio (RHS)

(INR/QTL) CAGR: 2.6% (x)

Despite an average 24% hike in MSP for Kharif crops in 2018, prices remain subdued

The wholesale price to MSP ratio was on a continuing decline under the NDA, suggesting limited impact of higher MSP on wholesale

market prices

22

INFRASTRUCTURE POLICY: CONNECTIVITY UNDER NDA IMPROVES MANIFOLD


Highway Construction Execution Doubles during the NDA Regime

Awarding of road projects improved National highways constructed picked pace

Source: Ministry of Road Transport, Elara Securities Research Source: Lok Sabha Questions, Elara Securities Research

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

(km/day)

CAGR: (4.58%)

Road connectivity has been a key policy focus of the NDA government

National Highways network expanded from 92,851km in 2013-14 to 120,543km over 2017-18

Highways construction was 12km per day during 2013-14, which stood at 27km per day over 2017-18

In FY19, NDA spent 0.42% of GDP on road construction vs 0.25% in FY14

24

0

5

10

15

20

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

('000 km)

Awards Construction


Indian Railways Receives Significant Impetus

Railways development spending rises Railways electrification gathers pace

Note: GC stands for gauge conversion; Source: Press Information Bureau, Elara Securities Research Source: Ministry of Railways. Elara Securities Research

0

2

4

6

8

10

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

(YoY %)(km)

Route Electrified (LHS) YoY (RHS)

Although a lot needs to be done, Indian Railways has managed to shed the image of a state enterprise impervious to change

Average expenditure per year in new line, gauge conversion and doubling projects over 2014-18 is INR 244bn, which is 112% higher

than average of 2009-14

469 unmanned level crossings have been eliminated, with average pace of elimination at 20% more than that over 2009-14

25

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

New Line GC Doubling

(kms/yr)

Average of 2009-14 Average 2015-18


NDA Works on Roadmap to Bring Northeast Closer to Heartland

World’s tallest girder railway bridge being built at

Manipur

Agartala-Delhi Rajdhani at 2,422 km is the longest route

for any Rajdhani

Jiribam-Imphal will link Manipur with the rest of India Sairang-Bairabi line to bring Mizoram capital on rail map

The line has 37 tunnels

and 22 bridges

26

Source: PIB, Elara Securities Research


Urban Development Related Infra Remains in Focus

Ministry of Urban Development spending Operational metro lines rise sharply

Source: Union Budget Documents, Elara Securities Research Source: Ministry of Urban Development , Elara Securities Research

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

CY08 CY10 CY12 CY14 CY16 CY18

(km)

Out of 585km of operational metro line as on February 2019, 326km has become operational after May 2014. Since May 2014,

258km of metro line has been sanctioned by the Central government

Currently, there are about 600km of sanctioned metro lines under construction, which will become operational in the next five years

There are about 1,000 km of metro line proposals under planning phase

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0

100

200

300

400

500

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19 (

RE)

FY20 (

BE)

Ministry Spending (LHS) % GDP (RHS)

(INR bn) (% GDP)

CAGR: 5.19%

CAGR: 29.37%

27

RURAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY: NDA IMPROVES ON UPA SCHEMES


Rural Development Spend Rises as Schemes See Higher Allocation

Ministry of Rural Development spending Roads constructed under PM Gram Sadak Yojana

Source: Union Budget Documents, Elara Securities Research Source: Ministry of Rural Development, Elara Securities Research

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19 (

RE)

FY20 (

BE)

Ministry of Rural Development Allocation (LHS) % GDP (RHS)

(INR bn) (% GDP)

Rural Development Ministry saw a steady increase in spending under the NDA regime

PM Awas Yojana, MGNREGA, Swachh Bharat and PM Gram Sadak Yojana are the most important schemes

Compared to 2014 when only 56% of villages had road connectivity, more than 82% currently have been connected by roads

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

(targ

et)

(kms)

29


Revamped MGNREGA to Focus on Asset Creation in Villages

MGNREGA allocation continues to rise MGNREGA asset creation is key focus

Source: Union Budget Documents, Elara Securities Research Source: MGNREGA, Elara Securities Research

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

FY11 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

(mn)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19 (

RE)

FY20 (

BE)

(INR bn)

Payment of wages to MGNREGA workers within 15 days in 85% of cases currently vs only 37% in FY16

Geotagging of MGNREGA assets has been implemented since FY17

Payment of MGNREGA wages through DBT is nearly universal

30


Revamped Rural Housing & Rural Sanitation programs

Houses constructed under PMAY (G) triples...

Source: Ministry of Rural Development, Elara Securities Research

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19 (

fytd

)IAY IAY & PMAY (G)

(no)

...so is number of individual household toilets built

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18FY19 (till…

NDA total: 92.80mn(mn)

UPA total: 42.99mn

Source: Swachh Bharat Mission, Elara Securities Research

NDA improvised on the rural housing policy and enhanced the grant component. It also improved efficacy using DBT & geotagging

Against the target of constructing 10.0mn houses under the PM Awas Yojana until March 2019, 8.2mn houses have been constructed

Swachh Bharat Mission saw construction of 93mn toilets in rural India in five years of NDA vs 43mn in five years under the UPA

31

AGRI POLICY: NDA POLICY HIGH ON INTENT; WEAK ON EXECUTION


NDA Launches New & Innovative Schemes for the Sector...

Source: Union Budget Documents, Elara Securities Research

Schemes Objective

Rashtriya Gokul MissionConserve and develop indigenous bovine breeds to enhance milk production and productivity

Soil Health Card Scheme Help farmers improve productivity by issuing soil health card

Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee YojanaEnhance adoption of precision irrigation and other water-saving technologies and improve efficiency in terms of farm water use

Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima YojanaProvide a comprehensive insurance coverage to farmers in the event of failure of any of the notified crop

E-National Agriculture MarketCreate a unified national market for agricultural commodities by integrating 585 regulated markets

Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana Promote organic farming

National Bamboo MissionSetting up small industries and create new employment opportunities in the bamboo sector

Operation Greens To address price volatility in perishables

Gramin Agricultural Markets Developing rural markets to enable farmers to sell to consumers directly

PM-AASHA Ensure remunerative prices to farmers

PM-KISAN Income support scheme for farmers

33


...Some of which Do Well Like Soil Health Card & Micro Irrigation

Soil health cards distributed PM Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY) sees good progress

YearTarget

(Ha)Achievement

(Ha)Achieved

(%)

FY14 656,000 432,000 65.9

FY15 574,000 426,000 74.2

FY16 500,000 573,000 114.6

FY17 800,000 840,000 105.0

FY18 12,00,000 11,25,000 93.8

FY19 1.6mn 911,000 56.9

A Ministry of Agriculture study, “Impact of Soil Health Card Scheme” conducted by National Institute of Agricultural Extension

Management interviewed farmers across 199 villages in 16 states growing cotton, paddy and soyabean. It found:

• Cost lowered by 4% to 10%

• Net farmer income grew between 30% and 40%

NDA focus on the micro irrigation program (PMKSY) saw improvement in area under micro irrigation, which also prompted the

government to create a micro irrigation fund worth INR 50bn

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

First Cycle (2015-17) Second Cylce (2017-19) till06.02.19

Achieved Target

(mn)

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Elara Securities Research Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Elara Securities Research

34


Some Like e-NAM Remain Only on Paper

Number of mandis on e-NAM platform

Expert Committee on Integration of Commodity

Spot and Derivatives Market on February 2018

found that online auction of commodities is not

taking place and data of manual trading is being

recorded in the system after the auction is done

offline

It also found several agricultural produce market

committees do not have operational assaying labs

for grading commodities prior to putting them up

for online auction

The panel also found significant variation in the

arrival data of AGMARKNET and eNAM

Note: Map not to scale; Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Elara Securities Research

35


Well-Designed Crop Insurance, but Faces Implementation Hurdles

Crop insurance coverage

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

(mn)

Numer of Farmer Covered (No.) Area Insured (ha)

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Elara Securities Research

The Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (crop insurance)

which was designed to be more efficient than crop insurance

schemes under the UPA failed to live up to its promise

Delayed payments due to delay in premium payments by

State governments affected efficacy

During Kharif 2017, for instance, payouts were a mere INR

7.33bn whereas claims were of INR 144.54bn

36


Like UPA, NDA Also Driven by Political Exigencies

Farm loan waivers announced since 2014 (INR bn)

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19 (

RE)

FY20 (

BE)

Ministry Spending (LHS) % GDP (RHS)

(INR bn) (% GDP)

CAGR: 12.59%

CAGR: 40.28%

NDA govt refrained from announcing any pan-India farm loan waiver. However, the State governments under NDA rule have

announced a slew of farm loan waivers

Having failed to ensure remunerative compensation to farmers under PM-AASHA scheme, the government has announced an income

support scheme, which would transfer INR 6,000 per year to small and marginal farmers accounting for 86% of total farmers in India

at a cost of INR 750bn per year

INR 200bn has been allocated for FY19 as well

Ministry of Agriculture & farmers welfare spending

Uttar Pradesh (BJP govt) 364

Maharashtra (BJP govt) 340

Punjab (Cong govt) 100

Karnataka (Cong-JDS govt) 447

Andhra Pradesh (TDP govt) 240

Madhya Pradesh (BJP govt) 560

Chhattisgarh (BJP govt) 61

Rajasthan (BJP govt) 85

Madhya Pradesh (Cong govt) 500

Rajasthan (Cong govt) 700

Chhattisgarh (Cong govt) 61

Source: Budget Documents, Elara Securities Research Source:Budget documents, Elara Securities Research

37

SOCIAL SECURITY: NDA’S POLICIES WITH WIDER COVERAGE


Ayushmaan Bharat Much bigger than Rashtriya Swasth Bima Yojana

UPA launches RSBY NDA launches AB-PMJAY

Launch date & coverage

RSBY was launched in early 2008 and initially

designed to target only BPL households, but was

expanded to cover other defined categories of

unorganized workers

Launched in 2018, AB-PMJAY is targeted at

500mn economically deprived people based on

the Socioeconomic Caste Census data. AB-PMJAY

subsumed RSBY

Insurance coverRSBY offers medical insurance of up to INR 30,000 for

a family of five

AB-PMJAY provides an annual health cover of INR

500,000 per family

Coverage

2017 data shows since its launch in 2008, of 59mn

households which were eligible, ~36.3mn (61%) were

covered by RSBY

In less than one year of its existence, AB-PMJAY

has already issued 24.8mn eCards and admitted

1.5mn beneficiaries

39

Source: Press Information Bureau, Elara Securities Research


PMSBY & PMJJBY Bigger and Wider Than AABY

UPA launches Aam Aadmi Bima Yojana(AABY)

NDA launches PM Suraksha Bima Yojana (PMSBY) & PM Jeevan Jyoti Bima Yojana (PMJJBY)

Launch date & coverage

Launched in October 2007, Aam Aadmi Bima

Yojana (AABY) caters to the unorganized sector

to persons under 48 various vocational groups

Launched in May 2015, these schemes provide life

insurance and accidental life insurance.

Insurance cover

Insurance cover of INR 30,000 on natural death,

INR 75,000 on death due to accident, INR

37,500 for partial permanent disability due to

accident and INR 75,000 for total permanent

disability due to accident to persons in the age

group of 18 to 59 years

INR 0.2mn for accidental death and full disability and

INR 0.1mn for partial disability to persons in the age

group of 18 to 70 years with a bank account

Premium INR 200 per year of which INR 100 was paid by

the Central government

INR 12 per year for accidental insurance and INR 330 per

year for life insurance

Coverage

2017 data shows a coverage of 43.7mn.

Currently, it has been converged in PMSBY &

PMJJBY

PMSBY has a coverage of 146.4mn and PMJJBY has a

coverage of 56.7mn

40

Source: : Press Information Bureau, Elara Securities Research


NDA’s Mega Pension Scheme for the Unorganised

NDA government has introduced a pension scheme for the unorganized workers, namely Pradhan Mantri Shram

Yogi Maandhan (PM-SYM)

Workers whose monthly income is INR 15,000 per month or less and belong to the age group of 18-40 years are

eligible

Each subscriber under the PMSYM shall receive minimum assured pension of INR 3,000 per month after attaining

the age of 60

Members monthly contribution starts from INR 55 at the age of 18 years to INR 200 at the age of 40 years

There is a matching grant from government

It is expected at least 100mn labourers and workers in the unorganised sector will avail the benefit of Pradhan

Mantri Shram-Yogi Maandhan within the next five years, making it one of the largest pension schemes in the

world. A sum of INR 5.0bn has been allocated for the scheme

41

FINANCIAL INCLUSION: DEMON HELPED NDA, BUT PACE FALTERED LATER


After Demon Push, Uptrend in Bank Account Holders Hit Plateau

Financial inclusion Basic savings deposit accounts

0

20

40

60

80

100

Individuals -Age 15 and

Above

Males -Age 15and Above

Females -Age15 and Above

Young Adults -Age between

15 and 24

Older Adults -Age 25 and

Above

(% population with accounts)

2011 2014 2017

Source: World Bank, Elara Securities Research Source: RBI, , Elara Securities Research

73105

139182

243

398

469

533 536

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

(INR bn)(mn)

No. of Accounts Amount (RHS)

Demonetization & Direct benefit Transfer (DBT) have ensured a leg-up to bank penetration in India

However, after initial boost, number of accounts and deposits have hit a plateau

The challenge is in the form of inactive accounts. According to the World Bank, 48% of accounts were found to be

inactive in India — about twice the average of 25% for Developing Economies (survey conducted in 2017)

43


Jan Dhan Scheme a Hit but Access to Credit Yet to Improve

Average balance in Jan Dhan Accounts… …however, access to credit yet to improve

Source: Ministry of Finance, Elara Securities Research

1,000

1,400

1,800

2,200

2,600

3,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 (as on13 Mar)

Rural Beneficiaries Urban Beneficiaries Average Balance (INR)

(mn beneficiaries) (INR Avg Balance)

Source: World Bank Findex Database 2017, Elara Securities Research

44


Despite Banking Push, Digital Payments Yet to See Much Gains

Retail electronic clearing-volume Retail Electronic clearing-value

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

(YoY %)

20

40

60

80

100

120

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

(YoY %)

Source: RBI, CIEC, Elara Securities research Source: RBI, CIEC, Elara Securities research

45

WAY FORWARD: UNFINISHED AGENDA


Unfinished Agenda for the New Government

Boost to labour-intensive manufacturing through Make in India scheme

Restoring credibility of institutions like RBI

E-NAM & cluster-based storage systems

Doubling of farmers income

Agriculture-rail network

Police reforms

Creation of health infrastructure

Smart Cities

Public spending on education to be raised to 6%

Skilling India to enhance employability

Drinking water for all

Interlinking of rivers

Energy security

47


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The analyst for this report certifiesthat all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or hercompensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.Any clarifications / queries on the proposal as well as any future communication regarding the proposal should be addressed to Elara Securities (India) Private Limited.Elara Securities (India) Private Limited was incorporated in July 2007 as a subsidiary of Elara Capital (India) Private Limited.Elara Securities (India) Private Limited is a SEBI registered Stock Broker in the Capital Market and Futures & Options Segments of National Stock Exchange of India Limited [NSE], in the CapitalMarket Segment of BSE Limited [BSE] and a Depository Participant registered with Central Depository Services (India) Limited [CDSL].Elara Securities (India) Private Limited’s business, amongst other things, is to undertake all associated activities relating to its broking business.The activities of Elara Securities (India) Private Limited were neither suspended nor has it defaulted with any stock exchange authority with whom it is registered in last five years. 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49

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Team DetailsHarendra Kumar Managing Director [email protected] +91 22 6164 8571Sales

Hitesh Danak India [email protected] +91 22 6164 8543Karan Rathod India [email protected] +91 22 6164 8570Prashin Lalvani India [email protected] +91 22 6164 8544Shraddha Shrikhande India [email protected] +91 22 6164 8567Sushil Bhojwani India [email protected] +91 22 6164 8512Sudhanshu Rajpal India [email protected] +91 22 6164 8508Gangadhara Kini US, Australia [email protected] +91 22 6164 8558Anita Nazareth Corporate Access, Conference & Events [email protected] +91 22 6164 8520Quantitative, Alternatives, Sales Trading & DealingSunil Jain Quantitative & Alternates [email protected] +91 22 6164 8531Manan Joshi India [email protected] +91 22 6164 8555Manoj Murarka India [email protected] +91 22 6164 8551Nupur Barve India [email protected] +91 22 6164 8532

Ravi Sundar Muthukrishnan Ph.D Head - Institutional Equity Research [email protected] +91 22 6164 8572

ResearchAkhil Parekh Analyst Midcap [email protected] +91 22 6164 8519Ankita Shah Analyst Infrastructure, Ports & Logistics [email protected] +91 22 6164 8516Biju Samuel Analyst Quantitative & Alternate Strategy [email protected] +91 22 6164 8505Gagan Dixit Analyst Oil & Gas, Aviation [email protected] +91 22 6164 8504Garima Kapoor Economist [email protected] +91 22 6164 8527Harshit Kapadia Analyst Capital Goods [email protected] +91 22 6164 8542Karan Taurani Analyst Media & Entertainment [email protected] +91 22 6164 8513Jay Kale, CFA Analyst Auto & Auto Ancillaries [email protected] +91 22 6164 8507 Param Desai Analyst Pharmaceuticals, Healthcare, Real Estate [email protected] +91 22 6164 8528Pankaj Chhaochharia Analyst Strategy, Consumer Electronics [email protected] +91 22 6164 8503Pradeep Kumar Kesavan, CFA Analyst Strategy [email protected] +91 22 6164 8541Pratik Tholiya Analyst Agrochemicals, Travel & Hospitality [email protected] +91 22 6164 8518Rakesh Kumar Analyst Banking & Financials [email protected] +91 22 6164 8559Ravi Menon Analyst IT Services, Internet, Telecom [email protected] +91 22 6164 8502Ravi Sodah Analyst Cement, Building Materials [email protected] +91 22 6164 8517Ritika Dua Analyst Diversified Financials [email protected] +91 22 6164 8526Rupesh Sankhe Analyst Capital Goods , Utilities, Renewables [email protected] +91 22 6164 8581Sagarika Mukherjee Analyst FMCG, Dairy [email protected] +91 22 6164 8594Aarti Rao Associate Pharmaceuticals, Healthcare, Real Estate [email protected] +91 22 6164 8535Anushka Chhajed Associate Strategy [email protected] +91 22 6164 8536Ashish Agrawal Associate IT Services, Internet, Telecom [email protected] +91 22 6164 8573Chintan Shah Associate Banking & Financials [email protected] +91 22 6164 8521Harsh Jhanwar Associate Cement, Building Materials [email protected] +91 22 6164 8546Jatan Gogri Associate Economics [email protected] +91 22 6164 8591Praneet Nikumbh Associate Diversified Financials [email protected] +91 22 6164 8506Priyanka Trivedi Associate Agrochemicals, Travel & Hospitality [email protected] +91 22 6164 8588Rachael Alva Associate Oil & Gas, Aviation [email protected] +91 22 6164 8525Shubham Maheshwari Associate FMCG, Dairy [email protected] +91 22 6164 8562Vijay Gyanchandani Associate Auto & Auto Ancillaries [email protected] +91 22 6164 8511Vinayak Patil Database [email protected] +91 22 6164 8510Priyanka Sheth Editor [email protected] +91 22 6164 8568Gurunath Parab Production [email protected] +91 22 6164 8515Jinesh Bhansali Production [email protected] +91 22 6164 8537