gcc fall 16 section 10 action - university of idahojhicke/courses/...stern review: the economics of...

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GlobalClimateChange 1 ProfJ.Hicke

GEOG313/513Fall2016

Learningoutcomes

• understandmitigationandadaptation,andknowthedifferencesandinteractions

• describewaysofmitigatingfutureclimatechange• understandtheaspectsofclimatechangepreparedness

planning(impacts,vulnerability,riskassessments,adaptationplans)

• beawareofethicalissuesaboutclimatechange,mitigation,andadaptation

Section10:Action


Section10:Action

Outline

10.1Mitigation

10.2Adaptation


“Thebenefitsofstrong,earlyactiononclimatechangeoutweighthecosts”

SternReview:TheEconomicsofClimateChange,2006

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Existingpowertechnologiesusedwidely

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cattenom_Nuclear_Power_Plant

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.


hydroelectricgeothermal

nuclear


Emergingpowertechnologies


solarwind


InfographicaboutclimatechangefromWorldBank

www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/11/23/infographic-climate-change-latin-america-middle-east-central-asia

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PathwaystostabilizingCO2emissions

PacalaandSocolow,Science,2004

Withexistingtechnologies,cansocietystabilizationCO2emissions?

Need7technologies,eachofwhichreducesemissionsin50yearsby1Gt C/year(a“wedge”).

(Now9areneededbecauseofnoactionsince2004.)

GlobalClimateChange 8 ProfJ.HickePacala andSocolow,Science,2004

energyconservationandefficiency

fuelswitching,Ccapturestorage

15wedges:

alternativeenergysources

landmanagement

PathwaystostabilizingCO2emissions


Sum=6000MtCO2-eq/yrCurrentfossilfuel+cement emissions=34,000MtCO2/yr

Mitigationoptionsinagriculture

IPCC,WorkingGroupIII,2007

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In2030

Mitigationoptionsinagriculture



Currentfossilfuel+cementemissions=34

GtCO2/yr

CumulativeCby2050andby2100

Mitigationoptionsinforestry



Currentfossilfuel+cement emissions=34GtCO2/yr

CumulativeCO2by2055

Mitigationoptionsinforestry:avoideddeforestation


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GlobalClimateChange 13 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Geoengineering possibilities


Section10:Action

Outline

10.1Mitigation

10.2Adaptation

GlobalClimateChange 15 ProfJ.HickeGlicketal.2011

whetherorhowasystemisaffectedbyachangein

climate

howmuchclimatechangeasystemwillexperience abilityto

minimizeimpact

riskassessment,adaptationplantominimizeeffect

susceptibilityofasystemtoadverseeffectsfromclimate

change

Climatechangeimpactandvulnerabilityassessments

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GlobalClimateChange 16 ProfJ.HickeGlicketal.2011

Example:buildingA/Cturn-oninspring

turnonA/Cwhendailymaximumtemperature

exceeds62ºF

springtemperaturewillincreaseby5ºFby

2030 shortterm:turnonA/Cearlier

longterm:buildingmodifi-cations

low(butcostly)

turn-ondaywilladvancebythree

weeks

riskassessment,adaptationplantominimizeeffect


• identifyaspectsofINLthatcouldbeaffectedbyclimatechange

• quantifyhowthesesystems/componentswillrespond

• determinethecapacitytoadapttominimizeimpact

• assessclimatechangerisks(consequence× probability)

• developadaptationplantominimizenegativeimpacts

GoalsofclimateadaptationplanningatIdahoNationalLaboratory

www.id.doe.govwww.inl.gov Daltonetal.,2013


Physicalassetsandrealproperty• redistributionofpopulation• hydropowerenergyproductiondisruption• availabilityofpotableandnon-potablewater• probability/severityoffire• stormevents/flooding/erosion• decreasedheatingneedsinwinter• increasedcoolingneedsinsummer• electricalshortages• sealevelrise• hurricanes• coastalerosion• fuelsupplydisruptionduetoseverestorms

Programmatic• increasedenergy,watercosts• opportunitiesforcleanenergydevelopment

anddeployment• groundwaterremediation• budgetconsiderations• historicalorculturalpreservationonDOElands• landfill/wastesites

Examplesofsystems/componentspotentiallyvulnerabletoclimatechange(atDOElevel)

Humanhealthandsafety• disease• qualityoflife• heatstress• transportationinfrastructure

disturbances,includingtoDOEfacilitiesandsupplychain

DOE2014InterimClimateChangeAdaptationPlan

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• Isthesystemalreadyabletoaccommodatechangesinclimate?

• Aretherebarrierstoasystem'sabilitytoaccommodatechangesinclimate?

• Isthesystemalreadystressedinwaysthatwilllimittheabilitytoaccommodatechangesinclimate?

• Istherateofprojectedclimatechangelikelytobefasterthantheadaptabilityofthesystem?

• Arethereeffortsalreadyunderwaytoaddressimpactsofclimatechangerelatedtothesystem?

Considerationsfordeterminingadaptivecapacity

USDOTFHA,2012;Snoveretal.,2007 Glicketal.2011


combine:• exposure(climatechangeinformation)• sensitivity(responsetoclimatechange)• adaptivecapacity

twoapproaches• quantitativeanalysis(uncommon)• expertopinion

• yieldslow/medium/highrating

Determiningvulnerability

USDOTFHA,2012;Snoveretal.,2007 Glicketal.2011


Identifyingsectors/systems/componentsatINLthatcouldbeaffectedbyclimatechange

Glicketal.2011

Needtoconsiderbothdirectandindirecteffects

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INLimpactandvulnerabilityassessmentsensitivity exposure

adapt.capacityimpact vuln.

Glicketal.2011

GlobalClimateChange 23 ProfJ.HickeIPCC,WG2,2013


www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation/plans.html

States,LocalClimateAdaptationPlans

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villagerelocationbecauseofsealevel

rise,erosion

upgradingsewersystems

LA:$10Mforresiliency(planning,capacity,guidance)

citiesformedadaptationalliance

toshareinfo

NationalClimateAssessment,2014

Currentadaptationactivities


USDAForestServiceclimateadaptationplans

slidecourtesyDavePeterson,USFS


Vulnerabilities and adaptationWATER

Vulnerability• Higher peak flows in fall

and winter

Adaptation strategy• Design infrastructure to

accommodate higher peak flows

SlidecourtesyofD.Peterson,USFS

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Vulnerabilities and adaptationWATER

Vulnerability• Higher peak flows in fall

and winter

Adaptation tactics• Install larger culverts• Decommission roads in

floodplains• Relocate campgrounds

subject to floodingSlidecourtesyofD.Peterson,USFS


Vulnerabilities and adaptationFISHERIES

Vulnerability• Higher stream

temperatures will degrade habitat

Adaptation strategy• Restore and maintain

cold-water habitat



Vulnerabilities and adaptationFISHERIES

Vulnerability• Higher stream

temperatures will degrade habitat

Adaptation tactics• Map cold-water habitat• Restore side channels• Increase shade in

riparian areas


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Vulnerabilities and adaptationVEGETATION

Vulnerability• Wildfire will burn more

area and over a longer fire season

Adaptation strategy• Increase resilience of

forest ecosystems to more frequent fire



Vulnerabilities and adaptationVEGETATION

Vulnerability• Wildfire will burn more

area and over a longer fire season

Adaptation tactics• Reduce stand densities• Accelerate hazardous

fuel treatments• Manage for diversity of

stand agesSlidecourtesyofD.Peterson,USFS


1.restraint(donothing)

2.resilience(buytime)• facilitateanecosystem’sororganism’s

abilitytorebound/recoveryfromadisturbance

• removeotherstressors(invasivespecies,humanpressure)

• thinforeststodecreasedroughtvulnerability

3.resistance(buytime)• fuelbreakstostopwildfires• controllinginsectoutbreaks• dripirrigation

4.realignment(long-termchange)• assistedmigration• plantwithspeciesbetter

adaptedtonew/futureclimatefollowingseveredisturbance

• mixinggenotypesfromotherregions(thatmaybemoreresilient/resistant)

Adaptationoptionsinwildernessareas

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AmericanSocietyofAdaptationProfessionals


“Whitebarkpine(Pinusalbicaulis)assistedmigrationpotential:testingestablishment

northofthespeciesrange”

McLaneandAiken,Ecol.Appl.,2012

Assistedmigrationofspecies


Triallocations(blackdots)

Seedsources (whitesquares)



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Resultsoftrials


coldestsites


gcc fall 16 section 10 action - university of idahojhicke/courses/...stern review: the economics of...

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