gcc fall 16 section 02 obs evidence cc - university of...
TRANSCRIPT
8/31/16
1
GlobalClimateChange 1 ProfJ.Hicke
GEOG313/513Fall2016
Section2:ObservationalEvidenceofClimateChange
Learningoutcomes
• howtemperature,precipitationaremeasured• howglobalaveragesarecalculated• evidenceforrecentclimatechangewithintheclimatesystem• temperature,precipitation,sealevelrise,cryosphere,extremeevents
GlobalClimateChange 2 ProfJ.Hicke
weather.usu.edu/htm/observatory-diagram www.inmtn.com/weather-station-installation.html
Weatherstations
GlobalClimateChange 3 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
GlobalHistoricalClimatologyNetworkstations
8/31/16
2
GlobalClimateChange 4 ProfJ.Hicke
>3800stations withrecords>50years1600stations withrecords>100years226stations withrecords>150years
GlobalHistoricalClimatologyNetworkstations
longest:Berlin,begunin1701(so>300years)
GlobalClimateChange 5 ProfJ.Hicke
Radiosondes
NationalWeatherService
funnel.sfsu.edu
Temperature
Altitud
e(lo
gpressure)
airtemperature
dewpointtemperature
windspeed,direction
NOAA
GlobalClimateChange 6 ProfJ.Hicke
Microwavesoundingunit
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurements
TIROSOperationalVerticalSounds(TOVS)
NOAA
Atmospherictemperaturefromsatellites
8/31/16
3
GlobalClimateChange 7 ProfJ.Hicke
Warminginatmosphere
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurements
GlobalClimateChange 8 ProfJ.HickeIPCCAR5,WGI,2013
Threeestimatesofsurfacetemperature
trends
GlobalClimateChange 9 ProfJ.Hicke
MostcurrentglobalmeanTfromNASAGISS
2015
8/31/16
4
GlobalClimateChange 10 ProfJ.Hicke
Bearinmindthedistributionofstations
certaintydependsonspatiallocation
morecertainatglobalscale
GlobalClimateChange 11 ProfJ.Hicke
upr.orgweather.uwaterloo.ca/info.html
simpleraingauge heated,shieldedprecipitationgauge
Precipitationgauges
GlobalClimateChange 12 ProfJ.Hicke
SNOw TELemetry (SNOTEL)gauges
www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/id/snow/?cid=nrcs144p2_047776
8/31/16
5
GlobalClimateChange 13 ProfJ.HickeIPCCAR5,WGI,2013
Precipitationtrendsarehighlyvariable
GlobalClimateChange 14 ProfJ.Hicke
Changesintheocean
IPCCAR5WGI,2013
GlobalClimateChange 15 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Sealevelovermillionsofyears
8/31/16
6
GlobalClimateChange 16 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Sealevelriseoverthousandsofyears
GlobalClimateChange 17 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Sealevelriseovertensofyears
GlobalClimateChange 18 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Sealevelrise
tidegauges
satellites
8/31/16
7
GlobalClimateChange 19 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Causesofsealevelrise
also:groundwaterpumping
GlobalClimateChange 20 ProfJ.Hicketidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/index.shtml
Localsealevelrise
GlobalClimateChange 21 ProfJ.Hicke
Declinesinseaiceextent
8/31/16
8
GlobalClimateChange 22 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Declinesinseaiceextent
ships,buoys,aircraft satellites
GlobalClimateChange 23 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Reductioninminimumseaiceextentin2012
49%of1979-2000average
GlobalClimateChange 24 ProfJ.Hicke
2016seaiceextent
8/31/16
9
GlobalClimateChange 25 ProfJ.Hicke
Modelsunderpredict melt
GlobalClimateChange 26 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Declinesinseaicethickness(volume)
GlobalClimateChange 27 ProfJ.Hicke
Icesheetinstabilityhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2pYHMx5bN8
8/31/16
10
GlobalClimateChange 28 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Jakobshavn GlacierrecessiononGreenland
GlobalClimateChange 29 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
GreenlandIceSheetmelting
increasingnumberofsummermeltdays
GlobalClimateChange 30 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Permafrostandcarbonstorage
8/31/16
11
GlobalClimateChange 31 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Meltingpermafrostforminglakes/ponds
GlobalClimateChange 32 ProfJ.Hicke
Meltingpermafrostgeneratesmethane
PhotobyToddParis,AP
methanetrappedunderlakeice
GlobalClimateChange 33 ProfJ.Hicke
news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/04/140417-drunken-trees-melting-permafrost-global-warming-science/PHOTOGRAPHBYASHLEYCOOPER,CORBIS
Meltingpermafrostfellingtrees
8/31/16
12
GlobalClimateChange 34 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Globalmountainglacierareachange
advance retreat
GlobalClimateChange 35 ProfJ.Hickeen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850
GlobalClimateChange 36 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Upsala Glacier,Patagonia,retreat1924
2004
8/31/16
13
GlobalClimateChange 37 ProfJ.Hicke
GlaciersinGlacierNationalPark
GlobalClimateChange 38 ProfJ.Hicke
GlacierretreatinwesternUSglacierlocations %lostsince1990
McCabeandFountain,2013
GlobalClimateChange 39 ProfJ.Hicke
EPA
Impactstosnow,streamflow
8/31/16
14
GlobalClimateChange 40 ProfJ.HickeUSGCRP, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009
Impactstosnow,streamflow
GlobalClimateChange 41 ProfJ.HickeIPCCAR5,WGI,2013
GlobalClimateChange 42 ProfJ.Hicke
Changesinextremeevents
Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
IPCC2013WGIreport
8/31/16
15
GlobalClimateChange 43 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Decreaseincoldevents,increaseinwarmeventstrend:days/decade
GlobalClimateChange 44 ProfJ.HickeCoumou andRahmstorf,NatureClimateChange,2012
GlobalClimateChange 45 ProfJ.Hicke
95th percentiletemperatureevents(smoothed)
Coumou andRahmstorf,NatureClimateChange,2012
Europeanheatwaves
“Itisverylikelythatseveraloftheunprecedentedextremesofthepastdecade
wouldnothaveoccurredwithoutanthropogenicglobalwarming.”
2003:70,000deaths
2010:55,000deaths
(relativeto1970-1999)
8/31/16
16
GlobalClimateChange 46 ProfJ.Hicke
AnomalouswarminginMarch2012
Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
GlobalClimateChange 47 ProfJ.Hicke
Southwest Climate
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Aver
age
Annu
al Te
mpe
ratu
re (F
arein
heit)
53
54
55
56
57
58
Aver
age
Prec
ip (In
)
8
9
10
11
12
13
TemperaturePrecipitation
Breshears et al. PNAS, October 18, 2005, vol. 102, no. 42, 15144-15148, and graphic from Neil Cobb
1950s drought
2000s drought
GlobalChange-TypeDroughtinUSSouthwestWarming:• higherevapotranspiration• barkbeetles
GlobalClimateChange 48 ProfJ.Hicke
Breshears etal.,2011
Drought: Pinyon pine dieoff in Southwest in 2000s
8/31/16
17
GlobalClimateChange 49 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Increases,decreasesinverywetdays
GlobalClimateChange 50 ProfJ.Hicke
Changesinextremeprecipitationevents
Historicalobservations
NationalClimateAssessment,Chapter2,2014
GlobalClimateChange 51 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Hurricanepatternsarevariableintime
8/31/16
18
GlobalClimateChange 52 ProfJ.Hicke
NationalClimateAssessment,Chapter2,2014
Hurricanepatternsarevariableinspace
GlobalClimateChange 53 ProfJ.Hicke
NationalClimateAssessment,Chapter2,2014
Trendsinwinterstorms
intheUS
GlobalClimateChange 54 ProfJ.Hicke
IPCC2013WGIreport
Observedevidenceisconsistentwithwarming