GlobalClimateChange 1 ProfJ.Hicke

GEOG313/513Fall2016

Section1:IntroductiontoClimateChange

Learningoutcomes

• definitionofclimate• climatechangehasoccurredovermillionsofyears• recentwarmingwascausedbyhumans• projectionsindicatecontinuedwarming• climatechangeisacknowledgedbyalmostallclimatescientists,butnotasmanyofthe(US)public

GlobalClimateChange 2 ProfJ.Hicke

Climatesystemanditscomponents

www.gfdl.noaa.gov

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Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Oceaniskeyclimatecomponent

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Recent(last100+years)climatechange

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

GlobalClimateChange 5 ProfJ.Hicke

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=4030

Five-YearGlobalTemperatureAnomaliesfrom1880to2012

GlobalClimateChange 6 ProfJ.Hicke

Historical(last12,000years)climatechange

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

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Historical(last2,000years)climatechange

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

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Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

ConditionsinEuropeduringLittleIceAge

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Historical(last1,000years)climatechange

famous“hockeystick”graph

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

GlobalClimateChange 10 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slowcoolingover10sofmillionsofyears

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"RadiativeforcingisameasureoftheinfluenceafactorhasinalteringthebalanceofincomingandoutgoingenergyintheEarth-atmospheresystemandisanindexoftheimportanceofthefactorasapotentialclimatechangemechanism.Inthisreportradiativeforcingvaluesareforchangesrelativetopreindustrialconditionsdefinedat1750andareexpressedinWattspersquaremeter(W/m2).”IPCC,AR4,2007

Radiativeforcing

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IPCC,AR5,2013

Recentradiativeforcing

GlobalClimateChange 13 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Explosivevolcanoesinfluenceclimate

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Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Orbital,solarforcing

GlobalClimateChange 15 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Increasesingreenhousegases

GlobalClimateChange 16 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Wheredoesthisextraenergygo?

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Historicalclimatechange

temperaturetrends

oceanheatcontenttrends

seaicetrend

IPCC2013WGIreport

GlobalClimateChange 18 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Changeincomponentsofclimatesystem

GlobalClimateChange 19 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Emissionsscenarios

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Climatechangeprojectionsusingmodels

IPCC,AR5,2013

GlobalClimateChange 21 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Projectionsoffutureclimate

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http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=4029

NationalClimateAssessment:21stCenturyTemperatureScenarios

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Climate change “denialism” abounds!